<p>北京時間 12 月 11 日清晨，美聯儲將宣佈 12 月的利率決策，隨後美聯儲主席鮑威爾將召開新聞發佈會。</p>
<p>截至上週五，CME FedWatch 工具顯示本週降息 25 個基點的概率為 86.2%。在 11 月近 20% 的暴跌後，比特幣希望通過政策信號扭轉其下行趨勢。</p>
<p>儘管在 11 月最後幾天，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 流入了 2.2 億美元，但這不足以抵消整個 11 月淨流出 43 億美元的情況。僅黑石的 IBIT 基金在 10 月底至 11 月中旬就損失了 16 億美元。</p>
<p>此時，宏觀經濟環境脆弱，流動性不足，頭寸緊張。市場對美聯儲政策的任何微小調整都極為敏感。</p>
<p>市場的核心關注點集中在三個方面：</p>
<p>首先，12 月的降息是否會實現？美聯儲在 9 月和 10 月已經降息兩次，但鮑威爾表示 12 月的行動 “遠未確定”，加劇了 FOMC 內部的分歧，可能增加反對聲音。其次，如何平衡通脹與增長？通脹仍高於 2% 的目標，ISM 製造業指數連續多日下滑，因政府停擺導致關鍵經濟數據延遲，造成政策決策的信息真空。第三，寬鬆政策是否會持續到 2026 年？美聯儲在 12 月 1 日停止縮減資產負債表，投資者急於瞭解 12 月的降息是否標誌着週期的結束。對於加密市場，政策信號通過 “實際收益 - ETF 資金流動” 傳遞給比特幣。NYDIG 的研究確認，實際收益是核心影響因素；收益下降會導致價格上漲，反之亦然。10 月的案例已經證明了這一點：在鮑威爾拒絕承諾進一步降息後，IBIT 在三週內流出 16 億美元，比特幣隨後下跌。鮑威爾的言論將導致三種可能的路徑：如果他釋放鴿派信號（確認 12 月降息，淡化通脹風險，並暗示 2026 年將放鬆政策），兩年期國債收益率將下降，ETF 贖回可能轉為淨流入，比特幣預計將繼續反彈；如果他採取中立立場（承認降息的可能性但強調數據依賴），實際收益將波動，ETF 資金表現混合，比特幣將回落至當前水平；如果他釋放鷹派信號（淡化降息的必要性並警告通脹風險），10 月的情景可能重演，收益率上升引發一波 ETF 贖回，比特幣可能測試近期低點。目前，美聯儲內部的分歧以及對鮑威爾 2026 年繼任者的猜測通過政策不確定性抑制了風險偏好。對於交易者而言，他演講的核心價值在於回答比特幣 11 月的暴跌是短期的投降還是宏觀經濟邏輯變化的開始。如果鮑威爾接受市場對降息的預期，流動性預期的寬鬆將支持風險資產在年末反彈；如果他的立場逆轉，整體加密市場可能需要尋找新的宏觀經濟支持。</p>

<p>美聯儲即將做出的利率決策可能會對比特幣的走勢產生重大影響。目前市場對降息的預期概率為 86.2%，比特幣希望通過政策信號來扭轉近期的下跌趨勢。市場對美聯儲政策變化非常敏感，關注降息的確定性、通脹與經濟增長的平衡以及未來的寬鬆政策。鮑威爾的立場將影響比特幣的走勢，鴿派信號可能會推動比特幣上漲，而鷹派信號則可能導致進一步下跌。交易者在等待比特幣 11 月的暴跌是暫時現象還是更廣泛宏觀經濟變化的指示</p>

<p>At dawn on December 11th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京時間 12 月 11 日清晨，美聯儲將宣佈 12 月的利率決策，隨後美聯儲主席鮑威爾將召開新聞發佈會。</p>
</div><p>As of last Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week. After a nearly 20% plunge in November, Bitcoin is hoping for a policy signal to reverse its downward trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至上週五，CME FedWatch 工具顯示本週降息 25 個基點的概率為 86.2%。在 11 月近 20% 的暴跌後，比特幣希望通過政策信號扭轉其下行趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Although there was a slight inflow of $220 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last few days of November, it was insufficient to offset the net outflow of $4.3 billion for the entire month. BlackRock's IBIT fund alone lost $1.6 billion from late October to mid-November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管在 11 月最後幾天，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 流入了 2.2 億美元，但這不足以抵消整個 11 月淨流出 43 億美元的情況。僅黑石的 IBIT 基金在 10 月底至 11 月中旬就損失了 16 億美元。</p>
</div><p>At this time, the macroeconomic environment is fragile, liquidity is insufficient, and positions are tight. The market is extremely sensitive to any slight adjustment in Fed policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此時，宏觀經濟環境脆弱，流動性不足，頭寸緊張。市場對美聯儲政策的任何微小調整都極為敏感。</p>
</div><p>The market's core concerns are focused on three points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場的核心關注點集中在三個方面：</p>
</div><p>First, will the December rate cut materialize? The Fed has already cut rates twice in September and October, but Powell has stated that the December action is &#34;far from certain,&#34; exacerbating internal divisions within the FOMC and potentially increasing opposition. Secondly, how to balance inflation and growth? Inflation remains above the 2% target, the ISM manufacturing index has fallen for several consecutive days, and key economic data is delayed due to the government shutdown, creating an information vacuum for policy decisions. Thirdly, will the easing policy continue into 2026? The Federal Reserve stopped shrinking its balance sheet on December 1st, and investors are eager to know if a rate cut in December would mark the end of the cycle. For the crypto market, policy signals are transmitted to Bitcoin through the &#34;real yield - ETF fund flows.&#34; NYDIG research confirms that real yields are the core influencing factor; a decline in yields leads to price increases, and vice versa. The October case has already demonstrated this: after Powell refused to commit to further rate cuts, IBIT saw an outflow of $1.6 billion over three weeks, and Bitcoin subsequently fell. Powell's remarks will lead to three possible paths: If he releases a dovish signal (confirming a December rate cut, downplaying inflation risks, and hinting at easing in 2026), the two-year Treasury yield will decline, ETF redemptions may turn into net inflows, and Bitcoin is expected to continue its rebound; If he takes a neutral stance (acknowledging the possibility of a rate cut but emphasizing data dependence), real yields will fluctuate, ETF funds will see mixed performance, and Bitcoin will revert to its current level; If he releases a hawkish signal (downplaying the necessity of a rate cut and warning of inflation risks), the scenario of October may repeat itself, with rising yields triggering a wave of ETF redemptions, and Bitcoin may test recent lows. Currently, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and speculation about Powell's successor in 2026 have suppressed risk appetite through policy uncertainty. For traders, the core value of his speech lies in answering whether Bitcoin's November plunge was a short-term capitulation or the beginning of a change in macroeconomic logic. If Powell accepts market expectations of interest rate cuts, the anticipated easing of liquidity will support a year-end rebound in risk assets; if his stance reverses, the overall crypto market may need to find new macroeconomic support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，12 月的降息是否會實現？美聯儲在 9 月和 10 月已經降息兩次，但鮑威爾表示 12 月的行動 “遠未確定”，加劇了 FOMC 內部的分歧，可能增加反對聲音。其次，如何平衡通脹與增長？通脹仍高於 2% 的目標，ISM 製造業指數連續多日下滑，因政府停擺導致關鍵經濟數據延遲，造成政策決策的信息真空。第三，寬鬆政策是否會持續到 2026 年？美聯儲在 12 月 1 日停止縮減資產負債表，投資者急於瞭解 12 月的降息是否標誌着週期的結束。對於加密市場，政策信號通過 “實際收益 - ETF 資金流動” 傳遞給比特幣。NYDIG 的研究確認，實際收益是核心影響因素；收益下降會導致價格上漲，反之亦然。10 月的案例已經證明了這一點：在鮑威爾拒絕承諾進一步降息後，IBIT 在三週內流出 16 億美元，比特幣隨後下跌。鮑威爾的言論將導致三種可能的路徑：如果他釋放鴿派信號（確認 12 月降息，淡化通脹風險，並暗示 2026 年將放鬆政策），兩年期國債收益率將下降，ETF 贖回可能轉為淨流入，比特幣預計將繼續反彈；如果他採取中立立場（承認降息的可能性但強調數據依賴），實際收益將波動，ETF 資金表現混合，比特幣將回落至當前水平；如果他釋放鷹派信號（淡化降息的必要性並警告通脹風險），10 月的情景可能重演，收益率上升引發一波 ETF 贖回，比特幣可能測試近期低點。目前，美聯儲內部的分歧以及對鮑威爾 2026 年繼任者的猜測通過政策不確定性抑制了風險偏好。對於交易者而言，他演講的核心價值在於回答比特幣 11 月的暴跌是短期的投降還是宏觀經濟邏輯變化的開始。如果鮑威爾接受市場對降息的預期，流動性預期的寬鬆將支持風險資產在年末反彈；如果他的立場逆轉，整體加密市場可能需要尋找新的宏觀經濟支持。</p>
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隨着本週利率會議的臨近，比特幣會作何反應？