<div id="readability-page-1">Money Markets The Zscaler Crash: Why Software Investors Need To Reassess Risk  ByTrefis Team ,  Contributor.  Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Building a platform to do the job of 1 million analysts for  Great Speculations Follow Author Dec 08, 2025, 06:30am EST Share Save Comment  An illustrative stock graph displayed on a screen and Zscaler logo displayed on a phone screen are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on August 18, 2025. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images) NurPhoto via Getty Images There's an old adage on Wall Street: “When positive news causes a stock to drop, the celebration is over.”  This week, Zscaler (ZS) put that theory to the test in the harshest manner possible. On Tuesday, the cybersecurity leader announced a “Beat and Raise” quarter—revenue increased by 26%, earnings exceeded forecasts, and they raised their annual guidance.  The result? An approximate 17% decline in the stock value since the earnings announcement in late November.  This has become a hot topic among trading desks recently. The bulls are declaring “Generational Buying Opportunity.” The bears are asserting “Valuation Trap.”  Who is correct? Could this signify a Regime Change in how Wall Street evaluates software?  The Thematic Anchor: The “Perfection” Regime  For many years, software stocks were evaluated on a curve. If you achieved growth of 30%, the specifics were irrelevant. Zscaler’s decline indicates that the rules may be evolving. We have now entered a “Perfection Regime.”  The Trigger: Zscaler exceeded revenue expectations, yet Calculated Billings (a gauge for future cash flow) fell short, and the CFO announced retirement.  The Signal: In 2021, a CFO's retirement was merely a side note. By 2025, it signals a sell-off. Investors are extremely wary of any “uncertainty” in high-multiple stocks. The market is effectively stating: “If you expect a 12x Sales multiple, you must be flawless.”  The Valuation Sanity Test: Is it Really Cheap?  Following a 27% drop, Zscaler appears “optically” inexpensive. But is it?  MORE FOR YOU Zscaler P/S: 12x Sales  Palo Alto Networks P/S: 13x Sales  CrowdStrike P/S: 27x Sales  The Distortion: Even after the decline, Zscaler trades at a similar multiple to Palo Alto Networks, which is significantly more profitable and stable.  The “Implied Growth” Check: To warrant a 12x Sales ratio, Zscaler must grow at over 20% for another five years.  The Risk: If growth slows to 15% (the “Maturity Phase”), the stock could be re-evaluated at 8x Sales (similar to Check Point or Fortinet). This could indicate an additional 35% downside. The “dip” is not a bottom; it’s merely a lower step.  The Black Box: The “Proxy” Moat  Why consider buying Zscaler at all? Why not simply opt for Palo Alto?  The Asset: The Zero Trust Exchange.  The Architecture: Zscaler incorporates a “Proxy” architecture. They operate between you and the internet, examining traffic before allowing it through.  The Competitor: Palo Alto Networks operates using a “Firewall” architecture. They allow traffic to pass first and inspect it afterward.  The Moat: The “Proxy” model is inherently more secure for the AI era as it mitigates “lateral movement” (hackers navigating from one application to another). The Sticky Factor: Once an organization routes all its traffic through Zscaler’s proxy, disconnecting is a nightmare. It becomes digital addiction. This built-in lock-in is why the bulls are correct in the long run—the product is superior.  The Catalyst: The CFO “Tell”  This is the major warning you cannot overlook.  The Event: CFO Remo Canessa is set to retire now—a decision he made public back in December 2024, contingent on Zscaler finding a successor.  The History: Canessa is a notable figure. He led the company through its IPO and rapid growth phase.  The “Whisper”: When a revered CFO departs during a time of slowing growth (going from 40% in 2023 to 26%), it may signal that the “Easy Growth” phase has ended. He might be cashing out some of his gains after a prolonged period of acceleration. This suggests that the upcoming phase may revolve around “Grinding Efficiency,” rather than “Rocketship Growth.”  Our Perspective  Zscaler is a Category Leader experiencing a Mid-Life Crisis. The technology (Zero Trust) is unavoidable. The customer base is secured.  Bull Case: The billing shortfall was due to a timing issue, and the stock could potentially rebound to $300 as AI security spending increases in the next quarter.  Bear Case: The CFO's departure indicates a fundamental slowdown to less than 20% growth, and the market punishes it until it reaches a “Utility Multiple” of around 9x Sales (approximately $180/share).  Avoid trying to catch the falling knife today. The market is penalizing “Imperfection.” Wait for the situation to stabilize. If it declines to $200 (nearing 10x sales), consider making a significant investment. Until that point, allow the falling knife to land on the floor.  The Best Approach to Investing Is Through Portfolios  Individual selections can be volatile, but maintaining an investment is what truly matters. A diversified portfolio assists you in staying the course, capturing potential gains, and mitigating losses.  The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio , comprised of 30 stocks, has a history of comfortably outperforming its benchmarks that include all 3 – the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. What accounts for this? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks yield better returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index; they’ve been less volatile, as demonstrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics .  Editorial Standards Reprints &amp; Permissions LOADING VIDEO PLAYER... 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<p>Zscaler 的股票在宣佈 “超預期且上調指引” 的季度業績後下跌了 17%，儘管收入增加並且指引上調。此次下跌歸因於未達到預期的計算賬單和首席財務官的退休，顯示出市場的謹慎。投資者在討論這是否是一個買入機會還是估值陷阱，因為 Zscaler 的增長預期面臨審視</p>

Zscaler 的崩盤：為什麼軟件投資者需要重新評估風險