<p>有時候，資產的表現更多地體現在其鏈上指標上，而不是宏觀趨勢上。確實，第四季度的宏觀波動導致了各類資產的連續崩盤，但真正的痛苦比看起來更深。</p>
<p>以比特幣（BTC）的挖礦社區為例。從技術上講，BTC 從其 126,000 美元的峯值下跌近 30% 對礦工造成了嚴重打擊，尤其是在挖礦難度不斷攀升至歷史新高的情況下。</p>
<p>為了提供一些背景，11 月中旬，BTC 挖礦難度達到了 155 萬億的歷史新高，這意味着網絡的算力比以往任何時候都更具競爭力。結果是什麼？比特幣的挖礦成本達到了創紀錄的水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CoinShares</p>
<p>值得注意的是，挖掘 1 個 BTC 的平均成本現在約為 74,600 美元。</p>
<p>從技術上講，這僅比比特幣的 90,000 美元現貨價格低 20%。但這不僅僅是數學問題。在高波動性、低風險偏好、薄弱的買盤支持和鏈上指標承壓的情況下，很明顯 BTC 還沒有接近底部。</p>
<p>對於礦工來説，繼續參與遊戲變得越來越困難。</p>
<p>利潤空間緊張，運營成本上升，任何失誤都可能代價高昂。然而，從樂觀的角度來看，礦工如何應對當前的恐慌情緒可能為比特幣的下一個方向性走勢提供一個可靠的信號。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣挖礦壓力作為關鍵市場信號</strong></h2>
<p>為了應對波動性，關鍵參與者之間的 “信念” 至關重要。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼礦工成本是如此關鍵的指標。考慮到比特幣當前的價格波動，礦工提前退出以保護利潤或在更深的修正之前實現盈虧平衡是合乎邏輯的。</p>
<p>也就是説，挖礦指標尚未轉向看跌。例如，比特幣礦工頭寸指數（MPI）為-0.9，低於 11 月底的 2.17 的峯值，表明礦工尚未放棄。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>為了提供一些背景，MPI 跟蹤比特幣礦工的流出情況。</p>
<p>從技術上講，高 MPI 意味着更多的拋售，而負值則指向持有心態，增強了對比特幣的信念。因此，當前的-0.9 讀數表明礦工更傾向於持有而不是拋售。</p>
<p>這對市場來説是一個可靠的信號：儘管成本上升、挖礦難度加大以及 BTC 的波動性，比特幣礦工仍然在堅持。</p>
<p>雖然底部可能還沒有到來，但礦工的行為顯示出潛在的韌性。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最後的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>即使挖掘 1 個 BTC 的平均成本達到約 74,600 美元，礦工仍然傾向於持有而不是出售。</em></li>
<li><em>這種信念已成為比特幣下一個走勢的關鍵市場信號。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣礦工面臨創紀錄的高成本，挖掘 1 個比特幣的平均成本為 74,600 美元。儘管比特幣的波動性和高運營成本，礦工們並沒有選擇放棄，這從比特幣礦工持倉指數（MPI）為-0.9 可以看出。這表明礦工們持有比特幣的心態，顯示出韌性和對比特幣未來市場方向的潛在看漲情緒</p>

<p>Sometimes an asset’s performance shows more in its on-chain metrics than in macro trends. Sure, Q4 macro volatility has triggered back-to-back crashes across the board, but the real pain is deeper than it looks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有時候，資產的表現更多地體現在其鏈上指標上，而不是宏觀趨勢上。確實，第四季度的宏觀波動導致了各類資產的連續崩盤，但真正的痛苦比看起來更深。</p>
</div><p>Take Bitcoin’s [BTC] mining community, for example. Technically, BTC’s nearly 30% drop from its $126k peak has hit miners hard, especially as mining difficulty keeps grinding to new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以比特幣（BTC）的挖礦社區為例。從技術上講，BTC 從其 126,000 美元的峯值下跌近 30% 對礦工造成了嚴重打擊，尤其是在挖礦難度不斷攀升至歷史新高的情況下。</p>
</div><p>For context, in mid-November, BTC mining difficulty reached an all-time high of 155 trillion, meaning the network’s hashpower is more competitive than ever. The outcome? Bitcoin mining costs are at record levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了提供一些背景，11 月中旬，BTC 挖礦難度達到了 155 萬億的歷史新高，這意味着網絡的算力比以往任何時候都更具競爭力。結果是什麼？比特幣的挖礦成本達到了創紀錄的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinShares</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CoinShares</p>
</div><p>Notably, the average cost to mine 1 BTC is now sitting around $74,600.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，挖掘 1 個 BTC 的平均成本現在約為 74,600 美元。</p>
</div><p>Technically, that’s just 20% below Bitcoin’s $90k spot. But it’s not just about the math. With volatility high, risk appetite low, bid support weak, and on-chain metrics under pressure, it’s clear BTC isn’t near a bottom yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術上講，這僅比比特幣的 90,000 美元現貨價格低 20%。但這不僅僅是數學問題。在高波動性、低風險偏好、薄弱的買盤支持和鏈上指標承壓的情況下，很明顯 BTC 還沒有接近底部。</p>
</div><p>For miners, staying in the game is getting tougher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於礦工來説，繼續參與遊戲變得越來越困難。</p>
</div><p>Margins are tight, operational costs are up, and any misstep could be costly. On the bullish side, however, how miners navigate the current FUD could provide a solid signal for Bitcoin’s next directional move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利潤空間緊張，運營成本上升，任何失誤都可能代價高昂。然而，從樂觀的角度來看，礦工如何應對當前的恐慌情緒可能為比特幣的下一個方向性走勢提供一個可靠的信號。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin mining pressure as a key market signal</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣挖礦壓力作為關鍵市場信號</strong></h2>
</div><p>To navigate volatility, “conviction” among key players is critical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了應對波動性，關鍵參與者之間的 “信念” 至關重要。</p>
</div><p>That’s why miner costs are such a key metric. With Bitcoin’s current price swings, it would be logical for miners to exit early to protect margins or breakeven before deeper corrections tighten the squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼礦工成本是如此關鍵的指標。考慮到比特幣當前的價格波動，礦工提前退出以保護利潤或在更深的修正之前實現盈虧平衡是合乎邏輯的。</p>
</div><p>That said, mining metrics haven’t flipped bearish yet. For instance, the Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) is at -0.9, down from its late-November peak of 2.17, signaling that miners aren’t capitulating just yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，挖礦指標尚未轉向看跌。例如，比特幣礦工頭寸指數（MPI）為-0.9，低於 11 月底的 2.17 的峯值，表明礦工尚未放棄。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-Miners-Position-Index-MPI.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>For context, the MPI tracks Bitcoin miner outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了提供一些背景，MPI 跟蹤比特幣礦工的流出情況。</p>
</div><p>Technically, high MPI means more selling, while negative readings point to a HODLing mindset, reinforcing conviction in Bitcoin. So, with the current -0.9 reading, miners are leaning toward HODLing rather than dumping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術上講，高 MPI 意味着更多的拋售，而負值則指向持有心態，增強了對比特幣的信念。因此，當前的-0.9 讀數表明礦工更傾向於持有而不是拋售。</p>
</div><p>That’s a solid signal for the market: Despite rising costs, tougher mining difficulty, and BTC’s volatility, Bitcoin miners are sticking around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對市場來説是一個可靠的信號：儘管成本上升、挖礦難度加大以及 BTC 的波動性，比特幣礦工仍然在堅持。</p>
</div><p>While the bottom might not be in yet, miner behavior is showing underlying resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然底部可能還沒有到來，但礦工的行為顯示出潛在的韌性。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最後的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Even with the average cost to mine 1 BTC hitting around $74,600, miners are leaning toward HODLing rather than selling.</em></li>
<li><em>This conviction has become a key market signal for Bitcoin’s next move.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>即使挖掘 1 個 BTC 的平均成本達到約 74,600 美元，礦工仍然傾向於持有而不是出售。</em></li>
<li><em>這種信念已成為比特幣下一個走勢的關鍵市場信號。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特幣礦工面臨歷史最高成本：這對比特幣（BTC）意味着什麼