<p>根據分析師的預測，香港房價在 2026 年可能會因大陸買家、利率下調和未售新房減少而上漲最多 5%。\n 此外，印花税調整和香港復甦的股市也預計將有助於維持該市住宅物業市場的穩定，JLL 和高緯環球表示。\nJLL 分析師表示，這些因素預計將幫助減少香港開發商的過剩庫存，到明年年底將恢復到正常水平。\n“房價已經觸底，2026 年的前景謹慎樂觀，” JLL 香港主席蔡崇信表示。“我們預計資本價值將上漲約 5%，而豪宅的價值將保持基本平穩。豪宅租金預計將上漲最多 5%。”\n 如果這一預測成真，將對自 2021 年底以來一直處於下行趨勢的香港房地產市場帶來好消息。\n 根據官方數據，今年 3 月，已住住宅價格較 2021 年 9 月的峯值下跌了 28.4%。這一下滑發生在庫存水平高企的背景下，2023 年和 2024 年分別需要 101.6 個月和 67.4 個月才能清理庫存。\n\n 根據 JLL 的數據，截至 11 月，房屋銷售同比增長超過五分之一，未售庫存有所減少。它表示，到今年年底，未售庫存的數量將相當於 51.3 個月的供應量，這一水平是 2015 年至 2021 年的平均水平。\n 預計到 2026 年底，私人住房供應也將恢復正常，僅需 44.7 個月即可清理當前庫存。今年迄今為止，二手房價格上漲了 1.8%。\n 對於新房推出，JLL 表示約 30% 的買家來自大陸。在啓德和九龍站的項目中，這一比例超過 60%。\n 對於豪宅市場或價格至少為 1 億港元（1285 萬美元）的單位，JLL 項目戰略與諮詢高級總監李諾瑞表示，超過 90% 的買家來自大陸。\n“我們觀察到，今年大陸買家在新大型住宅項目中購買兩到五套房的數量顯著增加，這受到政府取消調控措施和住房租金持續上漲的推動，” 李説。“之前，他們通常只購買一套價格在 2000 萬到 3000 萬港元的新房。”\n\n 根據高緯環球的説法，未來一年，香港的大陸購房者數量可能會增加，因為租金在最近幾個月已飆升至歷史高點。\n 目前，城市中 20% 的購房者的名字使用拼音，即大陸的羅馬化中文書寫系統，該諮詢公司表示。\n“我們預計他們的比例將繼續增長，但不會超過本地買家的比例，” 高緯環球估值與諮詢服務高級總監賴德嘉表示。“由於資本管制，他們將大額資金轉移到香港仍然困難。”\n 其他有助於該市住宅物業市場的因素包括，財政司司長陳茂波在 2 月份宣佈將售價在 400 萬港元至 100 萬港元的房屋印花税從 6 萬港元減至 100 港元。在此之前，100 港元的激勵措施僅適用於售價在 300 萬港元以下的房屋。\n\n 根據 CBRE 的數據，售價在 400 萬港元以下的房屋在 2024 年的住宅銷售中佔四分之一。該諮詢公司表示，印花税的減免預計將使這一部分的比例增加到 30%。\n 香港金融管理局（HKMA）在 9 月份恢復寬鬆政策後，利率的下調也有助於該市的房地產市場。\n10 月份，HKMA 將基準利率下調了 25 個基點至 4.25%，為 2022 年 11 月以來的最低水平，減輕了借款人的按揭支付壓力。\n 此外，基準的恒生指數今年迄今已上漲超過 30%，對居民產生了財富效應，提升了購房情緒，JLL 表示。</p>

<p>香港的房價預計將在 2026 年上漲最多 5%，主要受到內地買家的推動、利率下調以及未售出公寓數量減少的影響。JLL 和高緯物業的分析師預計，這些因素將有助於市場穩定，豪宅租金也將上漲最多 5%。印花税的減免和復甦的股市也在促進積極的市場情緒。內地買家越來越多地購買多套公寓，他們的參與預計將增加，儘管本地買家仍將佔主導地位</p>

<p>Hong Kong home prices are likely to see up to a 5 per cent boost in 2026 on the back of mainland Chinese buyers, interest rate cuts and fewer unsold new flats, according to analysts.\nIn addition, the stamp duty adjustment and Hong Kong’s resurgent stock market were also expected to help sustain stability in the city’s residential property market, according to JLL and Cushman &amp; Wakefield.\nThose factors, JLL analysts said, were projected to help trim Hong Kong developers’ swollen inventory, which would drop back to their normal level by the end of next year.\n“Housing prices have bottomed out, and the outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic,” said Joseph Tsang Hon-ping, chairman of JLL in Hong Kong. “We expect capital values to rise by about 5 per cent, while luxury residential values will remain broadly flat. Luxury rents are projected to increase by up to 5 per cent.”\nShould that forecast unfold, it would be welcome news to the city’s housing property market, which has been in a downturn since late 2021.\nLived-in home prices fell by as much as 28.4 per cent in March this year from their peak in September 2021, according to official data. That slump came amid elevated inventory levels, which required 101.6 months and 67.4 months to clear in 2023 and 2024, respectively.\n\nWith home sales up more than a fifth on an annual basis as of November, unsold inventory had declined, according to JLL. It said it said that the number of unsold inventory would be equal to 51.3 months' worth of supply by the end of this year, which was the average level from 2015 to 2021.\nPrivate housing supply was also expected to normalise by end of 2026, requiring just 44.7 months to clear the current inventory, the property consultancy added. So far this year, second-hand home prices have risen 1.8 per cent.\nFor new home launches, JLL said about 30 per cent of buyers were from the mainland. That number exceeded 60 per cent for projects in Kai Tak and the Kowloon Station.\nFor the luxury residential segment or units that cost at least HK$100 million (US$12.85 million), more than 90 per cent of buyers were from the mainland, according to Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL.\n“We observed a significant increase in mainland buyers acquiring two to five flats in new mass residential projects for leasing this year, driven by the government’s removal of cooling measures and the continued rise in housing rents,” Lee said. “Previously, they typically bought only one new flat priced from HK$20 million to HK$30 million.”\n\nThe number of mainland homebuyers in Hong Kong was likely to increase in the coming year, as rental prices have surged to their historical peak in recent months, according to Cushman.\nCurrently, 20 per cent of homebuyers in the city had names in pinyin, the mainland’s system of romanised Chinese script, the consultancy said.\n“We expect their share to continue growing, but it will not surpass that of local buyers,” said Edgar Lai, senior director of valuation and advisory services at Cushman. “Due to capital controls, it remains difficult for them to transfer large amounts of capital into Hong Kong.”\nOther factors that have helped the city’s residential property segment were the reduction of the stamp duty on homes that cost up to HK$4 million to HK$100 from HK$60,000, which was announced by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po in February. Before that, the HK$100 incentive was only extended to homes priced up to HK$3 million.\n\nHomes that cost up to HK$4 million accounted for a quarter of residential sales in 2024, according to CBRE. The cut in the stamp duty was expected to increase the share of this segment to 30 per cent, the consultancy said.\nThe interest rate cuts by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), which resumed its easing stance in September, have also helped the city’s property market.\nIn October, the HKMA cut its base rate by a quarter point to 4.25 per cent, the lowest since November 2022, easing mortgage payments for borrowers.\nIn addition, the bellwether Hang Seng Index, which gained more than 30 per cent so far this year, had a wealth effect on residents, lifting sentiment for homebuying, according to JLL.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據分析師的預測，香港房價在 2026 年可能會因大陸買家、利率下調和未售新房減少而上漲最多 5%。\n 此外，印花税調整和香港復甦的股市也預計將有助於維持該市住宅物業市場的穩定，JLL 和高緯環球表示。\nJLL 分析師表示，這些因素預計將幫助減少香港開發商的過剩庫存，到明年年底將恢復到正常水平。\n“房價已經觸底，2026 年的前景謹慎樂觀，” JLL 香港主席蔡崇信表示。“我們預計資本價值將上漲約 5%，而豪宅的價值將保持基本平穩。豪宅租金預計將上漲最多 5%。”\n 如果這一預測成真，將對自 2021 年底以來一直處於下行趨勢的香港房地產市場帶來好消息。\n 根據官方數據，今年 3 月，已住住宅價格較 2021 年 9 月的峯值下跌了 28.4%。這一下滑發生在庫存水平高企的背景下，2023 年和 2024 年分別需要 101.6 個月和 67.4 個月才能清理庫存。\n\n 根據 JLL 的數據，截至 11 月，房屋銷售同比增長超過五分之一，未售庫存有所減少。它表示，到今年年底，未售庫存的數量將相當於 51.3 個月的供應量，這一水平是 2015 年至 2021 年的平均水平。\n 預計到 2026 年底，私人住房供應也將恢復正常，僅需 44.7 個月即可清理當前庫存。今年迄今為止，二手房價格上漲了 1.8%。\n 對於新房推出，JLL 表示約 30% 的買家來自大陸。在啓德和九龍站的項目中，這一比例超過 60%。\n 對於豪宅市場或價格至少為 1 億港元（1285 萬美元）的單位，JLL 項目戰略與諮詢高級總監李諾瑞表示，超過 90% 的買家來自大陸。\n“我們觀察到，今年大陸買家在新大型住宅項目中購買兩到五套房的數量顯著增加，這受到政府取消調控措施和住房租金持續上漲的推動，” 李説。“之前，他們通常只購買一套價格在 2000 萬到 3000 萬港元的新房。”\n\n 根據高緯環球的説法，未來一年，香港的大陸購房者數量可能會增加，因為租金在最近幾個月已飆升至歷史高點。\n 目前，城市中 20% 的購房者的名字使用拼音，即大陸的羅馬化中文書寫系統，該諮詢公司表示。\n“我們預計他們的比例將繼續增長，但不會超過本地買家的比例，” 高緯環球估值與諮詢服務高級總監賴德嘉表示。“由於資本管制，他們將大額資金轉移到香港仍然困難。”\n 其他有助於該市住宅物業市場的因素包括，財政司司長陳茂波在 2 月份宣佈將售價在 400 萬港元至 100 萬港元的房屋印花税從 6 萬港元減至 100 港元。在此之前，100 港元的激勵措施僅適用於售價在 300 萬港元以下的房屋。\n\n 根據 CBRE 的數據，售價在 400 萬港元以下的房屋在 2024 年的住宅銷售中佔四分之一。該諮詢公司表示，印花税的減免預計將使這一部分的比例增加到 30%。\n 香港金融管理局（HKMA）在 9 月份恢復寬鬆政策後，利率的下調也有助於該市的房地產市場。\n10 月份，HKMA 將基準利率下調了 25 個基點至 4.25%，為 2022 年 11 月以來的最低水平，減輕了借款人的按揭支付壓力。\n 此外，基準的恒生指數今年迄今已上漲超過 30%，對居民產生了財富效應，提升了購房情緒，JLL 表示。</p>
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由於大陸買家的推動和降息，香港房價預計將在 2026 年上漲