<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>今天是 FOMC 聲明日。劇透一下，傑伊·鮑威爾及其團隊將會將利率下調 0.25%。對於那些認為過去一個月概率變化如此劇烈的評論員來説，根本不應該有任何爭論。實際上並沒有，只有那些不關注的人才會認為美聯儲不會降息或通脹是個問題。事實並非如此。</p>
<p>今天的股市模型比平時更強，預計在下午 2 點之前波動在正負 0.50% 之間，然後會出現反彈。由於今天缺乏上漲的熱情，資金應該在今天早些時候投入，強度比平時更大。</p>
<p>正如我今年的論點一樣，勞動力市場較弱但並不疲軟。我預計在接下來的幾個月中會有所增強。經濟繼續帶來驚喜，但尚未全面復甦。這個機會將在 2026 年初到來。我足夠老，記得 8 個月前，在關税風波期間，一些媒體喜歡展示的華爾街高管們對關税導致通脹飆升的預測完全失誤。還有那些嘲笑地呼籲重演 2008 年或更糟的人。我們的非情緒模型不僅沒有預測更多的通脹和經濟末日，而且我當時堅信股市在下跌近 20% 時，肯定會達到歷史新高，儘管需要的時間超過兩個月。</p>
<p>以下是我最喜歡的、通常也是解讀美聯儲時最重要的圖表。聯邦基金利率跟隨 2 年期國債。自 2023 年初以來，2 年期國債幾乎一直低於聯邦基金利率，這表明美聯儲過於緊縮。市場希望儘快再降 1-2 次息。我的朋友吉姆·保爾森寫了一篇文章，討論了股市牛市伴隨着歷史上最不寬鬆的政策，這是一項極好的觀察。這也説明了在沒有美聯儲支持的情況下，牛市是多麼強勁。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png"/></p>
<p>最後，關於市場，我在紐約市忙於媒體工作，我們在 2022 年設定的道瓊斯 50000 的最低上漲目標預計將在 2026 年第一季度實現。雖然這僅僅是 5% 的距離，但當時道瓊斯指數還在 30000 以下。從短期來看，任何和所有的弱勢仍然是買入機會，自四月以來我一直這樣認為。大眾繼續在年末追逐表現，很多人面臨失業風險，因為他們在四月情緒化地恐慌拋售，並且自那時以來一直堅持敍述而非數據。</p>
<p>我將很快發佈我的 2026 年無畏預測的零星內容。整體主題是，2026 年對股票來説應該是自 2022 年以來最糟糕的一年，這並不一定意味着糟糕的一年，只是沒有過去三年那麼強勁。</p>
<p>週一，我們購買了 SSO 和更多的 TQQQ。我們賣出了 SDS、SQQQ、OSIS、GWRE 和 EMB。週二，我們購買了 PFF、IWN 和更多的 MTUM。我們賣出了 IJT 和 PCY。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>新高即將到來，風險加大，進入美聯儲會議</p>
<p>指數準備迎接新高，但最好不要先失敗</p>
<p>多頭逆轉潮流——歷史新高——比特幣</p>

<p>預計美聯儲將下調利率 0.25%，股票市場模型顯示公告後將出現反彈。經濟正在改善，預計就業市場將更強勁。儘管美聯儲政策收緊，道瓊斯指數預計將在 2026 年第一季度達到 50,000。最近的股票交易包括購買 SSO、TQQQ、PFF、IWN、MTUM，以及出售 SDS、SQQQ、OSIS、GWRE、EMB、IJT、PCY。2026 年的預測顯示，股票市場將比近年來表現疲軟</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1606189933777-a56d876d692d?ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Today is FOMC statement day. Spoiler alert. Jay Powell &amp; Company will be cutting interest rates by 1/4%. There shouldn’t even be a debate from all of the pundits who think the odds have swung so wildly over the past month. They haven’t, and only people not paying attention think the Fed doesn’t cut or that inflation is a problem. It’s not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天是 FOMC 聲明日。劇透一下，傑伊·鮑威爾及其團隊將會將利率下調 0.25%。對於那些認為過去一個月概率變化如此劇烈的評論員來説，根本不應該有任何爭論。實際上並沒有，只有那些不關注的人才會認為美聯儲不會降息或通脹是個問題。事實並非如此。</p>
</div><p>The stock market model for the day is stronger than usual, calling for plus or minus 0.50% until 2 pm and then a rally. There is added strength that money should be committed early in the day, and more so than normal, because of the lack of upside enthusiasm into today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的股市模型比平時更強，預計在下午 2 點之前波動在正負 0.50% 之間，然後會出現反彈。由於今天缺乏上漲的熱情，資金應該在今天早些時候投入，強度比平時更大。</p>
</div><p>As has been my thesis all year, the jobs market is weaker but not weak. And I do expect a strengthening over the coming few months. The economy continues to surprise to the upside, but it is not yet firing on all cylinders. That opportunity is coming in early 2026. I am old enough to remember 8 months ago, during the tariff tantrum, when some of the high-profile Wall Street types that the media loves to parade out as experts fell flat on their faces with cries about tariffs leading to spiking or soaring inflation. And then there were those who laughingly called for a repeat of 2008 or worse. Not only did our non-emotional models not call for more inflation and economic Armageddon, but I was pounding the table that the stock market, down almost 20% at the time, was easily going to all-time highs, albeit longer than two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我今年的論點一樣，勞動力市場較弱但並不疲軟。我預計在接下來的幾個月中會有所增強。經濟繼續帶來驚喜，但尚未全面復甦。這個機會將在 2026 年初到來。我足夠老，記得 8 個月前，在關税風波期間，一些媒體喜歡展示的華爾街高管們對關税導致通脹飆升的預測完全失誤。還有那些嘲笑地呼籲重演 2008 年或更糟的人。我們的非情緒模型不僅沒有預測更多的通脹和經濟末日，而且我當時堅信股市在下跌近 20% 時，肯定會達到歷史新高，儘管需要的時間超過兩個月。</p>
</div><p>Below is my favorite and usually the most important chart when it comes to reading the Fed. The Fed Funds Rate follows the 2-Year Treasury. The 2-Year has been below the Fed Funds for almost all time since early 2023, which says the Fed is and has been overly restrictive. The market wants 1-2 more cuts sooner than later. My friend, Jim Paulsen, wrote a piece discussing how the bull market in stocks has been accompanied by the least accommodative policy in history, which is an excellent observation. It also says just how strong the bull has been without the Fed’s tailwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我最喜歡的、通常也是解讀美聯儲時最重要的圖表。聯邦基金利率跟隨 2 年期國債。自 2023 年初以來，2 年期國債幾乎一直低於聯邦基金利率，這表明美聯儲過於緊縮。市場希望儘快再降 1-2 次息。我的朋友吉姆·保爾森寫了一篇文章，討論了股市牛市伴隨着歷史上最不寬鬆的政策，這是一項極好的觀察。這也説明了在沒有美聯儲支持的情況下，牛市是多麼強勁。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png" alt="" original-src="https://investfortomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/UST2Y.png"/></p>
<p>Finally, and quickly on the markets, as I have a busy day in NYC with media, our Dow 50,000 minimum upside target from 2022 should be achieved in Q1 2026. While that is only 5% away, it was modeled when the Dow was below 30,000. In the shorter term, any and all weakness remains a buying opportunity as I have offered since April. The masses continue to play performance chase into year-end, and an awful lot of folks are at risk of losing their jobs, having panic sold emotionally in April and clinging to a narrative instead of data ever since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，關於市場，我在紐約市忙於媒體工作，我們在 2022 年設定的道瓊斯 50000 的最低上漲目標預計將在 2026 年第一季度實現。雖然這僅僅是 5% 的距離，但當時道瓊斯指數還在 30000 以下。從短期來看，任何和所有的弱勢仍然是買入機會，自四月以來我一直這樣認為。大眾繼續在年末追逐表現，很多人面臨失業風險，因為他們在四月情緒化地恐慌拋售，並且自那時以來一直堅持敍述而非數據。</p>
</div><p>I will be releasing drips and drabs of my 2026 Fearless Forecast shortly. The overall theme will be that 2026 for stocks should see the worst year since 2022, which doesn’t necessarily mean a bad year, just not as strong as the last three enjoyable years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我將很快發佈我的 2026 年無畏預測的零星內容。整體主題是，2026 年對股票來説應該是自 2022 年以來最糟糕的一年，這並不一定意味着糟糕的一年，只是沒有過去三年那麼強勁。</p>
</div><p>On Monday, we bought SSO and more TQQQ. We sold SDS, SQQQ, OSIS, GWRE, and EMB. On Tuesday, we bought PFF, IWN, and more MTUM. We sold IJT and PCY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一，我們購買了 SSO 和更多的 TQQQ。我們賣出了 SDS、SQQQ、OSIS、GWRE 和 EMB。週二，我們購買了 PFF、IWN 和更多的 MTUM。我們賣出了 IJT 和 PCY。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>New Highs Up Next With Higher Risk Leading Into Fed Meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新高即將到來，風險加大，進入美聯儲會議</p>
</div><p>Indices Poised For New Highs But They Better Not Fail First</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指數準備迎接新高，但最好不要先失敗</p>
</div><p>Bulls Turn Tide – All-Time Highs – Bitcoin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多頭逆轉潮流——歷史新高——比特幣</p>
</div>

特別的美聯儲日更新——降息和道瓊斯指數達到 50,000 點即將到來