<p>作者：Biraajmaan Tamuly 來源：cointelegraph 翻譯：Shan Ouba，金色財經</p>
<p>比特幣對聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）決策的反應常常與交易者的預期相悖。今天宣佈的美聯儲利率決定會推動比特幣上漲還是引發拋售？</p>
<p>在美聯儲利率會議前的星期二，比特幣（BTC）價格短暫突破 94,000 美元，目前價格為 90,302 美元。歷史數據顯示，交易者應為市場劇烈波動做好準備。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，比特幣在每次美聯儲利率會議前後的表現揭示了一種模式：市場已經將宏觀經濟預期計入價格，而交易者的前瞻性佈局往往掩蓋了政策決策本身的實際影響。</p>
<p>關鍵要點</p>
<ol>
<li>歷史數據顯示，比特幣在大多數美聯儲利率會議後下跌，包括在降息週期中。</li>
<li>在美聯儲利率會議前，比特幣出現了大量資金流入和槓桿頭寸的積累，導致現貨流動性緊縮，從而在美聯儲決策公佈後加劇了價格波動。</li>
</ol>
<h2>美聯儲利率會議結果揭示獨特的比特幣價格模式</h2>
<p>在 2025 年的七次美聯儲利率會議後，比特幣的價格走勢表現出明顯的模式：市場提前定價，會議後的價格波動劇烈，通常以下跌結束。</p>
<p>以下是每次會議後七天內比特幣價格的變化：1 月 29 日，利率不變：下跌 4.58%；3 月 19 日，利率不變：上漲 5.11%；5 月 7 日，利率不變：上漲 6.92%；6 月 18 日，利率不變：上漲 1.48%；7 月 30 日，利率不變：下跌 3.15%；9 月 17 日，降息 25 個基點：下跌 6.90%；10 月 29 日，降息 25 個基點：下跌 8.00%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="299" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>2025 年美聯儲利率會議後七天內比特幣價格變化數據。數據來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView</p>
<p>七次會議後比特幣的七天回報率從上漲 6.9% 到下跌 8% 不等，降息會議後的表現最為疲弱。跳出宏觀經濟新聞，從市場結構的角度分析，這種趨勢的分歧變得更加明顯。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="299" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>比特幣在七次會議後的七天回報率範圍從上漲 6.9% 到下跌 8%，降息會議後的表現最為疲弱。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="331" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>不同時間段未實現盈虧分佈的數據來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>市場已經將 “鴿派政策帶來的上行潛力” 計入價格，導致在美聯儲利率會議聲明發布後，比特幣嚴重缺乏邊際買入力量。</p>
<p>市場已經將 “鴿派政策帶來的上行潛力” 計入價格，這導致在美聯儲利率會議聲明發布後，比特幣嚴重缺乏邊際買入力量。</p>
<p>...</p>
<p><strong>2. 降息引發最大幅度下跌</strong></p>
<p>在九月和十月宣佈兩次降息 25 個基點後，比特幣在七天內分別下跌 6.9% 和 8%。事實上，美聯儲的寬鬆週期已經通過會議前的資金流入和激進的多頭頭寸被提前定價。因此，當降息決定正式實施時，市場不僅未能獲得支撐，反而暴露出其脆弱性。</p>
<p><strong>3. 預先定價引發的波動突顯市場脆弱性而非穩定性</strong></p>
<p>當政策結果的確定性極高時，市場波動將在會議前縮小，並在會議後立即擴大——因為交易者會根據政策實施的明確信號減少頭寸，從而導致可預測的短期市場失調。</p>
<p>加密貨幣分析師 Ardi 預測此次會議後會出現類似的市場走勢，他在分析中寫道：“歷史價格走勢的引力效應將在明天顯現。如果這一走勢遵循平均下跌（約 8%），比特幣可能會回落至 88,000 美元的支撐位，然後可能繼續其上升趨勢。” 總體而言，數據表明，美聯儲的利率會議並不是單向比特幣價格走勢的催化劑，而是市場重置的一個節點。即使利率決定偏向鴿派，之前過度擴張的頭寸也可能在此期間被清算。</p>

<p>美聯儲在 2025 年的利率會議顯示，比特幣價格在會議後通常會下跌，儘管會議前資金流入和槓桿頭寸增加。歷史數據表明，比特幣的價格波動性在這些會議後會加劇，尤其是在降息後出現最大幅度的下跌。市場往往會提前定價宏觀經濟預期，導致公告後缺乏邊際購買力。分析師預測在當前會議後會出現類似的波動，暗示比特幣可能會跌至 88,000 美元，然後再可能上漲</p>

<p>Author: Biraajmaan Tamuly Source: cointelegraph Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Biraajmaan Tamuly 來源：cointelegraph 翻譯：Shan Ouba，金色財經</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's reaction to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions often contradicts traders' expectations. Will the Fed's interest rate decision announced today boost Bitcoin or trigger a sell-off?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣對聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）決策的反應常常與交易者的預期相悖。今天宣佈的美聯儲利率決定會推動比特幣上漲還是引發拋售？</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the day before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke through the $94,000 mark, currently priced at $90,302. Historical data shows that traders should be prepared for sharp market fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美聯儲利率會議前的星期二，比特幣（BTC）價格短暫突破 94,000 美元，目前價格為 90,302 美元。歷史數據顯示，交易者應為市場劇烈波動做好準備。</p>
</div><p>Throughout 2025, Bitcoin's performance before and after each Fed interest rate meeting reveals a pattern: the market has already priced in macroeconomic expectations, and traders' preemptive positioning often overshadows the actual impact of the policy decision itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，比特幣在每次美聯儲利率會議前後的表現揭示了一種模式：市場已經將宏觀經濟預期計入價格，而交易者的前瞻性佈局往往掩蓋了政策決策本身的實際影響。</p>
</div><p>Key Takeaways</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵要點</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Historical data shows that Bitcoin has fallen after most Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, including during interest rate cut cycles.</li>
<li>Significant inflows of funds into Bitcoin and the accumulation of leveraged positions both occurred before the Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, leading to a tightening of spot liquidity and thus amplifying price volatility after the Fed's decision was announced.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>歷史數據顯示，比特幣在大多數美聯儲利率會議後下跌，包括在降息週期中。</li>
<li>在美聯儲利率會議前，比特幣出現了大量資金流入和槓桿頭寸的積累，導致現貨流動性緊縮，從而在美聯儲決策公佈後加劇了價格波動。</li>
</ol>
</div><h2>Fed Interest Rate Meeting Results Reveal Unique Bitcoin Price Patterns</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲利率會議結果揭示獨特的比特幣價格模式</h2>
</div><p>After the seven Federal Reserve interest rate meetings in 2025, Bitcoin's price movement exhibited a clear pattern: the market pre-priced in the price, and the price movement after the meeting was volatile, often ending in a decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年的七次美聯儲利率會議後，比特幣的價格走勢表現出明顯的模式：市場提前定價，會議後的價格波動劇烈，通常以下跌結束。</p>
</div><p>Here are the Bitcoin price changes within seven days after each meeting: January 29th, interest rates unchanged: down 4.58% March 19th, interest rates unchanged: up 5.11% May 7th, interest rates unchanged: up 6.92% June 18th, interest rates unchanged: up 1.48% July 30th, interest rates unchanged: down 3.15% September 17th, interest rate cut by 25 basis points: down 6.90% October 29th, 25 basis point rate cut: down 8.00%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是每次會議後七天內比特幣價格的變化：1 月 29 日，利率不變：下跌 4.58%；3 月 19 日，利率不變：上漲 5.11%；5 月 7 日，利率不變：上漲 6.92%；6 月 18 日，利率不變：上漲 1.48%；7 月 30 日，利率不變：下跌 3.15%；9 月 17 日，降息 25 個基點：下跌 6.90%；10 月 29 日，降息 25 個基點：下跌 8.00%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin price change data in the seven days following the 2025 Fed rate meeting. Data source: Cointelegraph/TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年美聯儲利率會議後七天內比特幣價格變化數據。數據來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView</p>
</div><p>The seven-day return rate of Bitcoin after seven meetings ranges from an increase of 6.9% to a decrease of 8%, with the weakest performance following the rate cut meeting. Stepping outside the macroeconomic news and analyzing from the perspective of market structure, this divergence in trends becomes even clearer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七次會議後比特幣的七天回報率從上漲 6.9% 到下跌 8% 不等，降息會議後的表現最為疲弱。跳出宏觀經濟新聞，從市場結構的角度分析，這種趨勢的分歧變得更加明顯。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7420506_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin's seven-day return rate after seven meetings ranges from an increase of 6.9% to a decrease of 8%, with the weakest performance following the rate cut meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣在七次會議後的七天回報率範圍從上漲 6.9% 到下跌 8%，降息會議後的表現最為疲弱。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7420509_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Data source for unrealized profit and loss distribution across different periods: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不同時間段未實現盈虧分佈的數據來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>The market had already factored in the &#34;upside potential brought by dovish policies&#34; into the price, resulting in a severe lack of marginal buying power for Bitcoin after the release of the Fed's interest rate meeting statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場已經將 “鴿派政策帶來的上行潛力” 計入價格，導致在美聯儲利率會議聲明發布後，比特幣嚴重缺乏邊際買入力量。</p>
</div><p>The market had already factored in the &#34;upside potential brought by dovish policies&#34; into the price, which led to a severe lack of marginal buying power for Bitcoin after the release of the Fed's interest rate meeting statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場已經將 “鴿派政策帶來的上行潛力” 計入價格，這導致在美聯儲利率會議聲明發布後，比特幣嚴重缺乏邊際買入力量。</p>
</div><p>...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>...</p>
</div><p><strong>2. Interest Rate Cuts Trigger the Largest Decline</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 降息引發最大幅度下跌</strong></p>
</div><p>Following the announcement of the two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in September and October, Bitcoin fell by 6.9% and 8% respectively within a seven-day period. In fact, the Fed's easing cycle had already been priced in through pre-meeting fund inflows and aggressive long positions. Therefore, when the interest rate cut decisions were officially implemented, the market not only failed to gain support but also exposed its fragility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在九月和十月宣佈兩次降息 25 個基點後，比特幣在七天內分別下跌 6.9% 和 8%。事實上，美聯儲的寬鬆週期已經通過會議前的資金流入和激進的多頭頭寸被提前定價。因此，當降息決定正式實施時，市場不僅未能獲得支撐，反而暴露出其脆弱性。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. Volatility Caused by Pre-Pricing Highlights Market Fragility Rather Than Stability</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 預先定價引發的波動突顯市場脆弱性而非穩定性</strong></p>
</div><p>When the certainty of the policy outcome is extremely high, market volatility will narrow before the meeting and immediately expand after the meeting—because traders will reduce their positions based on the clear signal of the policy implementation, thus causing predictable short-term market misalignment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當政策結果的確定性極高時，市場波動將在會議前縮小，並在會議後立即擴大——因為交易者會根據政策實施的明確信號減少頭寸，從而導致可預測的短期市場失調。</p>
</div><p>Cryptocurrency analyst Ardi predicts a similar market movement after this meeting, writing in his analysis: &#34;The gravitational effect of historical price action will become apparent tomorrow. If this movement follows the average decline (approximately 8%), Bitcoin may fall back to the $88,000 support level before potentially continuing its upward trend.&#34; Overall, the data suggests that the Fed's interest rate meeting is not a catalyst for one-way Bitcoin price movements, but rather a market reset point. Even if the interest rate decision leans dovish, previously overextended positions may be liquidated during this period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密貨幣分析師 Ardi 預測此次會議後會出現類似的市場走勢，他在分析中寫道：“歷史價格走勢的引力效應將在明天顯現。如果這一走勢遵循平均下跌（約 8%），比特幣可能會回落至 88,000 美元的支撐位，然後可能繼續其上升趨勢。” 總體而言，數據表明，美聯儲的利率會議並不是單向比特幣價格走勢的催化劑，而是市場重置的一個節點。即使利率決定偏向鴿派，之前過度擴張的頭寸也可能在此期間被清算。</p>
</div>

美聯儲的利率會議釋放了哪些信號可能影響比特幣價格？