<p>我們收到了一位客户的以下問題：“我參加了一個會議，他們展示了大約三分之一的現存美國政府債務將在未來幾年到期。我們該如何償還？” 大約 30 萬億美元的美國國債中，三分之一相當於明年到期的 10 萬億美元國債。因此，無論是按比例（所有債務的三分之一）還是按名義金額（10 萬億美元）來衡量，財政部的再融資任務似乎都很艱鉅。然而，償還三分之一的債務負擔並不像一些危言聳聽者所讓公眾相信的那樣具有挑戰性。</p>
<p>目前，投資者和美聯儲擁有明年到期的 10 萬億美元國債的 100%。這些投資者主要包括貨幣市場基金、固定收益投資者、外國國家、保險公司、個人和企業。這些投資者要麼在法律上被要求持有短期國債，要麼有運營需求，或者更喜歡這些國債。因此，當他們的債務明年到期時，幾乎所有這些投資者都需要將收益再投資。因此，明年到期的 10 萬億美元國債將面臨大約 10 萬億美元的需求。</p>
<p>毫無疑問，飆升的國債水平是一個問題。但對投資者來説，重要的是明年將發行多少新國債。此外，政府債務具有負乘數效應。簡單來説，每增加一美元的債務最終會減少經濟活動。因此，償還三分之一的債務，甚至為新債務尋找買家，並不是我們主要關心的問題。我們更關心的是失控的財政支出對明天經濟的影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今天關注的事項</strong></h3>
<p><strong>收益</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><em>今天沒有收益發布</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
<p>在 <strong><em>昨天的</em></strong> <strong><em>報告</em></strong> 中，我們討論了 2026 年市場中可能出現的防禦性領域的機會。同時，我們開始在我們的主要模型中進行一些調整，通過進行一些税收損失收割，並增加一些更具防禦性的持股，如 MO、VZ、DIV 和 AES。</p>
<p>正如昨天所討論的，成長股相對於價值股的顯著超額表現正在創造潛在機會，特別是在估值較高時。如圖所示，前瞻性估值（即最樂觀的估值）目前處於前瞻性五年回報預計下降的水平。通過增加高股息股票，我們可以在等待的同時獲得收益，同時為我們的成長頭寸增加防禦性對沖。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png"/></p>
<p>雖然不能保證 2026 年會帶來更低的回報，但考慮到過去三年相對於歷史標準的巨大超額表現，風險正在增加。這就是為什麼我們目前只增加小規模的防禦性頭寸，而不是進行 “全面轉變”。這樣的舉措為我們在市場開始進行更嚴肅的輪換時提供了一個立足點。</p>
<p>僅供參考。</p>
<h3><strong>新房上市數量降幅創兩年多以來最大</strong></h3>
<p>週四，Redfin 報告稱，新房上市數量同比下降 1.7%，是兩年多以來的最大降幅。由於買家需求疲軟和季節性放緩，賣家們選擇觀望。此外，許多賣家被低抵押貸款利率所困。Redfin 還報告稱，待售房屋數量同比下降 4.1%，而且房屋出售的時間更長，平均需要 51 天。高價格和抵押貸款利率，加上經濟不確定性和緊張的庫存，使得買家保持謹慎。</p>
<p>下表由 Redfin 提供，進一步顯示了房地產市場的停滯情況。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>情緒與現實</strong></h3>
<p>下圖由 Daily Shot 提供，顯示了情緒與實際經濟活動之間的脱節。硬數據指的是實際經濟數據，如零售銷售、消費者物價指數、房屋銷售和失業申請。軟數據則是眾多消費者和商業調查，報告人們對經濟的感受。</p>
<p>自從關税實施以來，情緒一直在減弱，而經濟活動總體上有所擴展。例如，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行對第三季度的 GDP NOW 預測接近 4%。如果實現，這將是自 2021 年以來的最佳增長率。同時，密歇根大學消費者信心調查的結果是自 1960 年研究開始以來的最低水平。</p>
<p>這種脱節不太可能持續。通常，當消費者信心或商業信心為負時，消費者或商業領袖會減少支出和投資。因此，經濟活動往往會惡化。展望未來，情緒要麼改善以匹配經濟活動，要麼經濟活動追趕情緒。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的內容：</em></p>
<p>鷹派還是不那麼鴿派？量化寬鬆還是不量化寬鬆？</p>
<p>哈塞特將取代鮑威爾：博彩市場充滿信心</p>
<p>日本是否陷入死亡螺旋？：一種逆向觀點</p>

RDFN

<p>美國國債的三分之一，約 10 萬億美元，將在 2026 年到期，這帶來了重大的再融資挑戰。然而，預計投資者和美聯儲將進行再投資，以滿足需求。重點應放在新債務發行以及財政支出對經濟的影響上。此外，Redfin 報告由於需求疲軟和高抵押貸款利率，新房上市數量顯著下降，表明房地產市場停滯。經濟情緒與實際活動之間存在脱節，這可能對未來的經濟表現產生影響</p>

<p>We received the following question from a client: “ <em>I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?”</em> A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to $10 trillion in Treasury bonds maturing next year. Thus, whether measured as a percentage (a third of all debt) or by the notional amount ($10 trillion), the Treasury’s refunding task seems daunting. However, repaying a third of its debt load is not as challenging as some fearmongers lead the public to believe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們收到了一位客户的以下問題：“我參加了一個會議，他們展示了大約三分之一的現存美國政府債務將在未來幾年到期。我們該如何償還？” 大約 30 萬億美元的美國國債中，三分之一相當於明年到期的 10 萬億美元國債。因此，無論是按比例（所有債務的三分之一）還是按名義金額（10 萬億美元）來衡量，財政部的再融資任務似乎都很艱鉅。然而，償還三分之一的債務負擔並不像一些危言聳聽者所讓公眾相信的那樣具有挑戰性。</p>
</div><p>Currently, investors and the Federal Reserve own 100% of the $10 trillion of Treasury debt that will mature next year. Chiefly among these investors are money market funds, fixed-income investors, foreign countries, insurance companies, individuals, and corporations. These investors are either legally required to hold short-term Treasury notes, have an operational need for them, or prefer them. Thus, when their debt matures next year, almost all of those investors will need to reinvest the proceeds. Accordingly, the $10 trillion in Treasury notes maturing will be met with about $10 trillion worth of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投資者和美聯儲擁有明年到期的 10 萬億美元國債的 100%。這些投資者主要包括貨幣市場基金、固定收益投資者、外國國家、保險公司、個人和企業。這些投資者要麼在法律上被要求持有短期國債，要麼有運營需求，或者更喜歡這些國債。因此，當他們的債務明年到期時，幾乎所有這些投資者都需要將收益再投資。因此，明年到期的 10 萬億美元國債將面臨大約 10 萬億美元的需求。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake, the soaring Treasury debt levels are a problem. But what should matter to investors is how much new Treasury debt will be issued next year. Furthermore, government debt has a negative multiplier. In simple terms, each additional dollar of debt ultimately reduces economic activity. Thus, refunding a third of the debt, or even finding buyers for the new debt, is not a primary concern of ours. What concerns us more is the impact of runaway fiscal spending on tomorrow’s economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，飆升的國債水平是一個問題。但對投資者來説，重要的是明年將發行多少新國債。此外，政府債務具有負乘數效應。簡單來説，每增加一美元的債務最終會減少經濟活動。因此，償還三分之一的債務，甚至為新債務尋找買家，並不是我們主要關心的問題。我們更關心的是失控的財政支出對明天經濟的影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/treasury-debt-oustanding-1024x683.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今天關注的事項</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>收益</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><em>No earnings releases today</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>今天沒有收益發布</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74-1024x115.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p>In <strong><em>yesterday’s</em></strong> <strong><em>note</em></strong>, we discussed the opportunities that may present themselves in 2026 in more defensive areas of the market. At the same time, we started making a few adjustments in our primary models by doing some tax loss harvesting and adding some of these more defensive holdings like MO, VZ, DIV, and AES.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong><em>昨天的</em></strong> <strong><em>報告</em></strong> 中，我們討論了 2026 年市場中可能出現的防禦性領域的機會。同時，我們開始在我們的主要模型中進行一些調整，通過進行一些税收損失收割，並增加一些更具防禦性的持股，如 MO、VZ、DIV 和 AES。</p>
</div><p>As discussed yesterday, the significant outperformance of growth stocks over value is creating a potential opportunity, particularly when valuations are elevated. As shown, forward valuations <em>(which are the most optimistic)</em> are currently at levels where forward 5-year returns are expected to decline. By adding stocks with high dividends, we <em>“get paid to wait”</em> while adding a defensive hedge to our growth positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如昨天所討論的，成長股相對於價值股的顯著超額表現正在創造潛在機會，特別是在估值較高時。如圖所示，前瞻性估值（即最樂觀的估值）目前處於前瞻性五年回報預計下降的水平。通過增加高股息股票，我們可以在等待的同時獲得收益，同時為我們的成長頭寸增加防禦性對沖。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png"/></p>
<p>While there is no guarantee that 2026 will result in lower returns, given the massive outperformance to historical norms over the last 3-years, the risk is increasing. Such is why we are only adding small defensive positions currently and not making a <em>“full shift.”</em> Such actions give us a foothold to build into if, or when, the market begins to make a more serious rotation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然不能保證 2026 年會帶來更低的回報，但考慮到過去三年相對於歷史標準的巨大超額表現，風險正在增加。這就是為什麼我們目前只增加小規模的防禦性頭寸，而不是進行 “全面轉變”。這樣的舉措為我們在市場開始進行更嚴肅的輪換時提供了一個立足點。</p>
</div><p>Just something to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅供參考。</p>
</div><h3><strong>New Home Listing Drop By Most In Over 2 Years</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>新房上市數量降幅創兩年多以來最大</strong></h3>
</div><p>On Thursday, Redfin reported that new home listings fell 1.7% year over year, the largest decline in more than two years. Sellers are holding back due to weak buyer demand and seasonal slowdown. Furthermore, many sellers are trapped with low mortgage rates. Redfin also reported that pending home sales fell 4.1% year over year and that homes are taking longer to sell, averaging 51 days. High prices and mortgage rates, along with economic uncertainty and tight inventory, are keeping buyers cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，Redfin 報告稱，新房上市數量同比下降 1.7%，是兩年多以來的最大降幅。由於買家需求疲軟和季節性放緩，賣家們選擇觀望。此外，許多賣家被低抵押貸款利率所困。Redfin 還報告稱，待售房屋數量同比下降 4.1%，而且房屋出售的時間更長，平均需要 51 天。高價格和抵押貸款利率，加上經濟不確定性和緊張的庫存，使得買家保持謹慎。</p>
</div><p>The table below, courtesy of Redfin, presents additional data further indicating the housing market’s stagnation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表由 Redfin 提供，進一步顯示了房地產市場的停滯情況。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/redfin-data.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Sentiment vs Reality</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>情緒與現實</strong></h3>
</div><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Daily Shot, shows a disconnect between sentiment and actual economic activity. Hard data refers to actual economic data, such as retail sales, CPI, home sales, and unemployment claims. Soft data are the numerous consumer and business surveys that report on people’s feelings about the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖由 Daily Shot 提供，顯示了情緒與實際經濟活動之間的脱節。硬數據指的是實際經濟數據，如零售銷售、消費者物價指數、房屋銷售和失業申請。軟數據則是眾多消費者和商業調查，報告人們對經濟的感受。</p>
</div><p>Since the tariffs sentiment has been weakening, while economic activity has generally expanded. For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP NOW forecast for the third quarter is near 4%. If realized, that would be the best growth rate since 2021. At the same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is at its lowest level since the study began in 1960.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自從關税實施以來，情緒一直在減弱，而經濟活動總體上有所擴展。例如，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行對第三季度的 GDP NOW 預測接近 4%。如果實現，這將是自 2021 年以來的最佳增長率。同時，密歇根大學消費者信心調查的結果是自 1960 年研究開始以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Such a disconnect is not likely to continue. Typically, when consumer sentiment or business sentiment is negative, consumers or business leaders cut back on spending and investment. Accordingly, economic activity tends to deteriorate. Looking ahead, either sentiment improves to match economic activity, or economic activity catches down to sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種脱節不太可能持續。通常，當消費者信心或商業信心為負時，消費者或商業領袖會減少支出和投資。因此，經濟活動往往會惡化。展望未來，情緒要麼改善以匹配經濟活動，要麼經濟活動追趕情緒。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/economic-surprises.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/dovish-fed.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的內容：</em></p>
</div><p>Hawkish Or Less Dovish? QE Or Not QE?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鷹派還是不那麼鴿派？量化寬鬆還是不量化寬鬆？</p>
</div><p>Hassett To Replace Powell: Betting Markets Are Confident</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哈塞特將取代鮑威爾：博彩市場充滿信心</p>
</div><p>Is Japan In A Death Spiral?: A Contrarian Take</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本是否陷入死亡螺旋？：一種逆向觀點</p>
</div>

美國債務中有三分之一將在 2026 年到期