<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6/query-aXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6/query-aXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>截至撰寫時，標準普爾 500 指數年初至今已上漲約 17%。如果在接下來的幾周內出現 “聖誕老人反彈”，該指數可能會以 20% 的年回報率收盤。如果那樣的話，這將是連續第三年年回報率達到 20% 或以上。</p>
<p>儘管有各種擔憂和投資者在幾個月中關注的敍述，但最終，這又是一個市場表現出色的年份。但這並不意味着每隻股票的表現都很好。</p>
<p>在我們密切關注的商業房地產領域，明顯有贏家和輸家。今天，我們將更仔細地看看哪些物業領域在 2025 年表現最佳，哪些則未能達到預期。我們將首先從一個輸家開始。</p>
<h3><strong>輸家：生命科學</strong></h3>
<p>今年，生命科學領域幾乎是最糟糕的物業領域。這些實驗室設施通常由製藥和生物技術公司租賃，正面臨着我職業生涯中見過的最嚴重的供需失衡之一。</p>
<p>你可能還記得在最近的一篇文章中，我提到 COVID-19 時代為生命科學創造了一種土地爭奪戰。似乎每個製藥或生物技術公司都投入資源開發潛在的 COVID-19 治療方案。</p>
<p>傳遞給開發商的信息是要建造更多的設施——更多的設施。而他們確實這樣做了。但隨後，生命科學物業總是會發生的事情發生了。他們過度建設了。</p>
<p>隨着 COVID-19 的緊迫性在隨後的幾年中減退，以及利率上升減緩了對生物技術的風險投資，這種過剩的供應與較弱的需求正面交鋒。</p>
<p>結果是，生命科學在 2025 年變得有些混亂。即使是像亞歷山大房地產（ARE）這樣的優秀公司也受到了影響。截至撰寫時，該股票年內下跌約 50%。</p>
<p>這並不一定是亞歷山大管理層的錯。畢竟，他們能做的事情來緩解這些市場條件是有限的。但這確實意味着這一物業領域在整體上今年一直是一個資金黑洞。</p>
<p>不過，隨着我們進入明年，這種情況可能會改變。市場總是適應變化。如果明年生命科學領域出現轉機，寬護城河研究的讀者將第一時間得知。</p>
<h3><strong>輸家：冷藏</strong></h3>
<p>另一個掙扎的領域是冷藏——這些大型氣候控制倉庫在食品上架之前儲存食品。沒過多久，這些企業就受到房地產投資信託（“REIT”）投資者的喜愛。</p>
<p>在封鎖的那些年裏，人們被困在家中。因此，他們自己準備餐食。所有這些食物必須在被購買之前儲存起來。而在 Americold Realty Trust（COLD）和 Lineage（LINE）擁有的設施中，很多食物最終被儲存在那裏。但與生命科學類似，這種新需求並不是永久的。世界恢復了正常。冷藏設施也失寵了。</p>
<p>Americold 的管理層還提到通貨膨脹、消費者疲軟和政府福利減少是另一個逆風。Americold 和 Lineage 年內分別下跌約 38% 和 34%。</p>
<p>但同樣像生命科學一樣，這裏也可能出現轉機。這些設施的需求並不會消失。畢竟，人人都需要吃飯。我們將密切關注這一領域，看看它的運勢是否能在 2026 年扭轉。</p>
<h3><strong>贏家：三網租賃</strong></h3>
<p>我的讀者可能會説我認為三網租賃 REIT 總是贏家。畢竟，這些企業將擁有物業的所有費用——税收、保險、維護——轉嫁給租户。而且由於這些租户通常是高質量的，租期較長且內置租金遞增條款——所有 REIT 真正需要做的就是收支票。</p>
<p>但我在三網租賃領域看到的一個有趣發展是，這些公司越來越多地充當私募股權或傳統銀行的替代品。</p>
<p>今年，我們看到銷售回租交易激增。正如長期讀者所知，這是一種企業將物業出售給 REIT 後立即租回的方式。但很少有人理解，這實際上只是一種融資形式。在利率仍然較高的情況下，這類交易的數量增加了。</p>
<p>事實上，截至第三季度，這些交易的交易量比 2024 年增長了 23%。第三季度的交易量是 10 年來的第二高總量。今年的贏家之一就是市場上最大的三網租賃 REIT——Realty Income（O）。截至撰寫時，該股票年內回報約為 13%。在今年的高峰期，該總回報約為 20%。</p>
<p>如果利率在 2026 年繼續下降，像 Realty Income 這樣的 REIT——具有巨大的規模和資本成本優勢——將表現並超越市場。</p>
<h3><strong>贏家：醫療保健</strong></h3>
<p>醫療保健在 2025 年表現突出。毫無疑問。</p>
<p>作為證據，只需看看 Welltower（WELL）。該公司擁有一系列老年生活設施。該股票年內回報約為 52%。這不僅大幅超過標準普爾 500 指數，而且幾乎是 Nvidia 回報的兩倍。</p>
<p>醫療保健的看漲理由很簡單——美國的嬰兒潮一代（共 7640 萬人）正在變老。事實上，2025 年被認為是 “65 歲高峰年”，即創紀錄數量的人們達到了這個關鍵年齡。</p>
<p>雖然 2025 年可能會成為高峰，但這一趨勢不會消失。未來每年都會有數百萬美國人步入退休年齡。隨着他們的退休，他們將更多地使用醫療保健和長期護理設施。這一 “銀色海嘯” 趨勢具有持續性，預計將為醫療保健房地產投資信託基金（REITs）提供多年的順風。</p>
<p>我在這個領域繼續看好的一個名字是 Healthpeak Properties（DOC）。儘管該股票今年下跌了約 12%，但它仍然擁有令人印象深刻的醫療和老年生活設施組合。它的估值也很便宜，股息收益率約為 6.7%。</p>
<p>預計 Healthpeak 和其他醫療保健 REITs 在未來幾年將面臨更高的需求。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>終於發生了</p>
<p>‘擁有市場’ 的神話</p>
<p>買入警報：6 只接近 52 周低點的股息股票</p>

COLD

<p>在 2025 年，標準普爾 500 指數表現強勁，但並非所有房地產投資信託（REIT）行業都蓬勃發展。生命科學和冷藏存儲行業由於過度建設和需求變化而面臨困境，像亞歷山大房地產（Alexandria Real Estate）和 Americold Realty Trust 這樣的股票出現了顯著下跌。相反，像房地產收入（Realty Income）這樣的三重淨租賃 REIT 則受益於銷售 - 回租交易的增加，成為高利率下的融資替代方案。該行業成為贏家，展現了在市場中的韌性和適應能力</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6/query-aXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/flagged/photo-1558954157-aa76c0d246c6?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjEyMDd9&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>As of the time of writing, the S&amp;P 500 has delivered about 17% year-to-date. In the event of a “Santa Claus rally” in the next few weeks, the index could potentially close with a 20% return on the year. If that were to happen, it would be the third year in a row with an annual return of 20% or more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，標準普爾 500 指數年初至今已上漲約 17%。如果在接下來的幾周內出現 “聖誕老人反彈”，該指數可能會以 20% 的年回報率收盤。如果那樣的話，這將是連續第三年年回報率達到 20% 或以上。</p>
</div><p>For all the worries, for all the narratives investors latched on to over the months, in the end, it was a wonderful year for markets once again. But that doesn’t mean it was wonderful for every stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管有各種擔憂和投資者在幾個月中關注的敍述，但最終，這又是一個市場表現出色的年份。但這並不意味着每隻股票的表現都很好。</p>
</div><p>And in the commercial real estate sectors that we follow so closely, there were clear winners and losers. Today, we’ll have a closer look at which property sectors made the most of 2025, and which fell short. And we’ll start with a loser first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我們密切關注的商業房地產領域，明顯有贏家和輸家。今天，我們將更仔細地看看哪些物業領域在 2025 年表現最佳，哪些則未能達到預期。我們將首先從一個輸家開始。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Loser: Life Sciences</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>輸家：生命科學</strong></h3>
</div><p>You’d be hard-pressed to find a more miserable property sector than life sciences this year. These lab facilities – typically leased by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies – have been dealing with one of the worst supply/demand imbalances I’ve seen in my career.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，生命科學領域幾乎是最糟糕的物業領域。這些實驗室設施通常由製藥和生物技術公司租賃，正面臨着我職業生涯中見過的最嚴重的供需失衡之一。</p>
</div><p>You’ll remember from a recent article how I showed that the COVID-19 era created something of a land rush for life sciences. Every pharma or biotech company, it seemed, poured resources into potential COVID-19 treatments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能還記得在最近的一篇文章中，我提到 COVID-19 時代為生命科學創造了一種土地爭奪戰。似乎每個製藥或生物技術公司都投入資源開發潛在的 COVID-19 治療方案。</p>
</div><p>The message that was sent to developers was to build more facilities – much more. And that’s exactly what they did. But then, the thing that always happens in these situations happened to life sciences properties. They overbuilt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳遞給開發商的信息是要建造更多的設施——更多的設施。而他們確實這樣做了。但隨後，生命科學物業總是會發生的事情發生了。他們過度建設了。</p>
</div><p>And as the urgency around COVID-19 receded in the years that followed – and as rising rates slowed venture capital investment into biotech – that overwhelming supply ran headfirst into weaker demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 COVID-19 的緊迫性在隨後的幾年中減退，以及利率上升減緩了對生物技術的風險投資，這種過剩的供應與較弱的需求正面交鋒。</p>
</div><p>The result is that life sciences has been something of a mess in 2025. And it has taken its toll on even great companies like Alexandria Real Estate (ARE). That stock is down about 50% on the year as of the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果是，生命科學在 2025 年變得有些混亂。即使是像亞歷山大房地產（ARE）這樣的優秀公司也受到了影響。截至撰寫時，該股票年內下跌約 50%。</p>
</div><p>That’s not necessarily the fault of Alexandria’s management. After all, there’s only so much they can do to mitigate these market conditions. But it does mean that this property sector has – in general – been a money pit all year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不一定是亞歷山大管理層的錯。畢竟，他們能做的事情來緩解這些市場條件是有限的。但這確實意味着這一物業領域在整體上今年一直是一個資金黑洞。</p>
</div><p>Now, that might change as we go forward into next year. Markets are nothing if not adaptable. And if we do see a turnaround take shape in life sciences next year, rest assured that readers of Wide Moat Research will be the first to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，隨着我們進入明年，這種情況可能會改變。市場總是適應變化。如果明年生命科學領域出現轉機，寬護城河研究的讀者將第一時間得知。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Loser: Cold Storage</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>輸家：冷藏</strong></h3>
</div><p>Another sector that has struggled is cold storage – the warehouse-sized, climate-controlled buildings that store food before it ends up on grocery-store shelves. It wasn’t that long ago that these businesses were adored by real estate investment trusts (“REIT”) investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個掙扎的領域是冷藏——這些大型氣候控制倉庫在食品上架之前儲存食品。沒過多久，這些企業就受到房地產投資信託（“REIT”）投資者的喜愛。</p>
</div><p>During the lockdown years, people were stuck at home. So, they prepared their own meals. All that food had to be stored somewhere before being bought. And in facilities owned by Americold Realty Trust (COLD) and Lineage (LINE) is where a lot of it ended up. But, similar to life sciences, that new demand wasn’t permanent. The world got back to business. And cold-storage facilities fell from grace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在封鎖的那些年裏，人們被困在家中。因此，他們自己準備餐食。所有這些食物必須在被購買之前儲存起來。而在 Americold Realty Trust（COLD）和 Lineage（LINE）擁有的設施中，很多食物最終被儲存在那裏。但與生命科學類似，這種新需求並不是永久的。世界恢復了正常。冷藏設施也失寵了。</p>
</div><p>Management from Americold also called out inflation, a weaker consumer, and a reduction of government benefits as another headwind. Americold and Lineage are down about 38% and 34%, respectively, on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Americold 的管理層還提到通貨膨脹、消費者疲軟和政府福利減少是另一個逆風。Americold 和 Lineage 年內分別下跌約 38% 和 34%。</p>
</div><p>But, also like life sciences, there could be a turnaround story here. Demand for these facilities isn’t going away. After all, everybody has to eat. We’ll keep a close eye on this sector and see if its fortune can turn in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但同樣像生命科學一樣，這裏也可能出現轉機。這些設施的需求並不會消失。畢竟，人人都需要吃飯。我們將密切關注這一領域，看看它的運勢是否能在 2026 年扭轉。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Winner: Triple-Net</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>贏家：三網租賃</strong></h3>
</div><p>My readers might say I think triple-net lease REITs are always winners. After all, these businesses push all the expenses of owning properties – taxes, insurance, maintenance – onto the tenants. And because these tenants tend to be high-quality, with long lease terms and built-in rent escalators – all the REITs really have to do is cash the checks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的讀者可能會説我認為三網租賃 REIT 總是贏家。畢竟，這些企業將擁有物業的所有費用——税收、保險、維護——轉嫁給租户。而且由於這些租户通常是高質量的，租期較長且內置租金遞增條款——所有 REIT 真正需要做的就是收支票。</p>
</div><p>But an interesting development I’ve seen in the triple-net space this year has to do with how these companies are, more and more, acting as a stand-in for private equity or traditional banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我在三網租賃領域看到的一個有趣發展是，這些公司越來越多地充當私募股權或傳統銀行的替代品。</p>
</div><p>This year, we’ve seen sale-leasebacks soar. As longtime readers know, that’s when a business sells a property to a REIT and then leases it back immediately. But what few understand is that this is, effectively, just a form of financing. And at a time when rates are still elevated, more of these deals took place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，我們看到銷售回租交易激增。正如長期讀者所知，這是一種企業將物業出售給 REIT 後立即租回的方式。但很少有人理解，這實際上只是一種融資形式。在利率仍然較高的情況下，這類交易的數量增加了。</p>
</div><p>In fact, as of the third quarter, volume for these deals is up 23% over 2024. And the volume for the third quarter was the second-highest total in 10 years. One of the winners this year is none other than Realty Income (O), the biggest triple-net lease on the market. As of the time of writing, the stock has returned about 13%. At its peak this year, that total return was about 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，截至第三季度，這些交易的交易量比 2024 年增長了 23%。第三季度的交易量是 10 年來的第二高總量。今年的贏家之一就是市場上最大的三網租賃 REIT——Realty Income（O）。截至撰寫時，該股票年內回報約為 13%。在今年的高峰期，該總回報約為 20%。</p>
</div><p>If interest rates continue to trend down into 2026, look for REITs like Realty Income – with massive scale and cost of capital advantages – to perform and then outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率在 2026 年繼續下降，像 Realty Income 這樣的 REIT——具有巨大的規模和資本成本優勢——將表現並超越市場。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Winner: Health Care</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>贏家：醫療保健</strong></h3>
</div><p>Health care has been a standout in 2025. Full stop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>醫療保健在 2025 年表現突出。毫無疑問。</p>
</div><p>For evidence, just look at something like Welltower (WELL). The company owns a portfolio of senior living facilities. The stock has returned about 52% on the year. That not only handily beats the S&amp;P 500, it’s also nearly double the return from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為證據，只需看看 Welltower（WELL）。該公司擁有一系列老年生活設施。該股票年內回報約為 52%。這不僅大幅超過標準普爾 500 指數，而且幾乎是 Nvidia 回報的兩倍。</p>
</div><p>The bullish case for health care is easy – America’s Baby Boomers (all 76.4 million of them) are getting older. In fact, 2025 is believed to have been “peak 65,” or the year that a record number of people turned that critical age.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>醫療保健的看漲理由很簡單——美國的嬰兒潮一代（共 7640 萬人）正在變老。事實上，2025 年被認為是 “65 歲高峰年”，即創紀錄數量的人們達到了這個關鍵年齡。</p>
</div><p>And while 2025 might end up being the peak, this trend is not going away. Millions of Americans will age into retirement every year going forward. And as they do, they’ll make more use of health care and long-term care facilities. This “silver tsunami” trend has legs, and it should be a years-long tailwind for health care REITs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 2025 年可能會成為高峰，但這一趨勢不會消失。未來每年都會有數百萬美國人步入退休年齡。隨着他們的退休，他們將更多地使用醫療保健和長期護理設施。這一 “銀色海嘯” 趨勢具有持續性，預計將為醫療保健房地產投資信託基金（REITs）提供多年的順風。</p>
</div><p>One name I continue to like in this space is Healthpeak Properties (DOC). And while the stock is down about 12% on the year, it continues to boast an impressive portfolio of medical and senior living facilities in its portfolio. It’s also cheap and has a dividend yield of about 6.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在這個領域繼續看好的一個名字是 Healthpeak Properties（DOC）。儘管該股票今年下跌了約 12%，但它仍然擁有令人印象深刻的醫療和老年生活設施組合。它的估值也很便宜，股息收益率約為 6.7%。</p>
</div><p>Look for Healthpeak and other health care REITs to see heightened demand in the years ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計 Healthpeak 和其他醫療保健 REITs 在未來幾年將面臨更高的需求。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>It Finally Happened</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>終於發生了</p>
</div><p>The Myth Of ‘Owning The Market’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘擁有市場’ 的神話</p>
</div><p>Buy Alert: 6 Dividend Stocks At Near 52-Week Lows</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>買入警報：6 只接近 52 周低點的股息股票</p>
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今年的房地產投資信託基金（REIT）贏家和輸家