<p>比特幣的看跌動能已經達到冷卻狀態，價格維持在 11 月底建立的最後一個低點之上。然而，儘管有穩定的上升趨勢，但看漲反轉的跡象仍然較弱。有趣的是，最近發佈了一項評估，深入探討了可能影響比特幣下一次重大走勢的因素。</p>
<p><strong>分析師利用 MVRV 指標指出關鍵支撐和阻力區域</strong></p>
<p>在 12 月 12 日發佈的一條 X 動態中，市場分析師 Ali Martinez 表示，比特幣的下一次重大走勢取決於價格在一組識別出的關鍵水平附近的表現，這些水平是基於 MVRV 極端偏差定價區間的數據。為了提供背景，這一指標用於識別比特幣何時被低估或高估，過去在某些水平附近的活動是一個決定性因素。它通過將比特幣的市場價格與其實現價格進行比較，並繪製出可能的極端偏差水平，如±0.5 和±1.0，來實現這一功能。</p>
<p>從下面的圖表來看，$99,000 對應於 +0.5 標準偏差區間。這個價格水平在歷史上通常作為局部頂部，尤其是在抵抗短期看漲動能時。這是因為賣方在面臨任何真正的反對時，傾向於增加獲利了結的行為。有趣的是，突破這個$99,000 阻力水平可能是看漲興趣覺醒的跡象，可能在其重新測試時引發看漲動能的流入。</p>
<p>另一方面，最直接的支撐區域被認為位於$76,000 價格附近。值得注意的是，這一區域對應於-0.5 偏差區間，表明如果達到該價格水平，比特幣將被低估。</p>
<p>過去的市場週期也顯示，回調進入這一價格區域往往會在隨後的上漲動能中出現，因為 ‘買入回調’ 的心態可能佔據主導地位。可以預期，跌破這一關鍵支撐區域將是市場內賣壓加劇的結果。當這種情況發生時，比特幣價格可能會向下修正至更低的價格水平。</p>
<p><strong>指標顯示$122,000 和$53,000 是下一個關鍵關注區域</strong></p>
<p>值得注意的是，如果比特幣突破$99,000 阻力位，預計將面臨另一場戰鬥。指標的讀數顯示，+1 標準偏差區間大約在$122,000。看漲反彈通常會達到這一價格區域，並遇到顯著的阻力，導致價格急劇下跌。因此，突破 +1.0 偏差可能會預示着新歷史最高價的形成。</p>
<p>此外，-1.0 偏差位於$53,000 價格水平。如果-0.5 偏差失效，比特幣價格可能會開始向$53,000 的看跌週期，因為它是下一個重要支撐。這是因為它在歷史上通常作為強有力的積累區域，在此之前會出現一些橫盤整理，然後隨之而來的是主要的價格擴張。截至發稿時，比特幣的價格約為$90,400，過去一天記錄了 1.24% 的損失，數據來源於 CoinMarketCap。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特幣當前價格約為 90,400 美元，面臨 76,000 美元和 99,000 美元的關鍵水平。分析師 Ali Martinez 使用 MVRV 極端偏差定價區間強調了這些水平。99,000 美元是一個重要的阻力位，而 76,000 美元是一個關鍵的支撐位。突破 99,000 美元可能會導致價格上漲至 122,000 美元，而跌破 76,000 美元可能會將價格壓低至 53,000 美元。市場保持謹慎，弱勢的看漲反轉信號顯現</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s bearish momentum has since reached a cool-off state, as price maintains above the last swing low established late November. However, although there has been a steady uptrend, signs of a bullish reversal remain weak. Interestingly, a recent evaluation has been published, which delves into the factors that may affect Bitcoin’s next major move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的看跌動能已經達到冷卻狀態，價格維持在 11 月底建立的最後一個低點之上。然而，儘管有穩定的上升趨勢，但看漲反轉的跡象仍然較弱。有趣的是，最近發佈了一項評估，深入探討了可能影響比特幣下一次重大走勢的因素。</p>
</div><p><strong>Analyst Points To Key Support, Resistance Zones Using MVRV Metric</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>分析師利用 MVRV 指標指出關鍵支撐和阻力區域</strong></p>
</div><p>In an X post released on December 12, market analyst Ali Martinez shares that Bitcoin’s next significant move depends on how the price acts around a set of identified critical levels using data from the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. For context, this metric is used to identify when Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued, with past activity around certain levels being a defining factor. It serves this function by comparing Bitcoin’s market price to its Realized Price and plotting extreme levels of likely deviation, such as ±0.5 and ±1.0, around the realized price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月 12 日發佈的一條 X 動態中，市場分析師 Ali Martinez 表示，比特幣的下一次重大走勢取決於價格在一組識別出的關鍵水平附近的表現，這些水平是基於 MVRV 極端偏差定價區間的數據。為了提供背景，這一指標用於識別比特幣何時被低估或高估，過去在某些水平附近的活動是一個決定性因素。它通過將比特幣的市場價格與其實現價格進行比較，並繪製出可能的極端偏差水平，如±0.5 和±1.0，來實現這一功能。</p>
</div><p>From the chart below, $99,000 stands in correspondence to the +0.5 standard deviation band. This price level has historically functioned as a local top, especially in resistance against short-term bullish momentum. This happens because there is an increase in profit-taking among sellers, as they are prone to exiting in the presence of any real opposition. Interestingly, a significant break above this $99,000 resistance level could be a sign of awakening bullish interest, potentially causing the inflow of bullish momentum upon its retest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從下面的圖表來看，$99,000 對應於 +0.5 標準偏差區間。這個價格水平在歷史上通常作為局部頂部，尤其是在抵抗短期看漲動能時。這是因為賣方在面臨任何真正的反對時，傾向於增加獲利了結的行為。有趣的是，突破這個$99,000 阻力水平可能是看漲興趣覺醒的跡象，可能在其重新測試時引發看漲動能的流入。</p>
</div><p>On the flipside, the most immediate support zone is seen to lie around the $76,000 price. Notably, this region corresponds to the –0.5 deviation band, suggesting that it is a price level where Bitcoin would become undervalued if reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，最直接的支撐區域被認為位於$76,000 價格附近。值得注意的是，這一區域對應於-0.5 偏差區間，表明如果達到該價格水平，比特幣將被低估。</p>
</div><p>Past market cycles also reveal that pullbacks into this price region have often preceded increased upward momentum, owing to the ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality that must have prevailed. Expectedly, a slip beneath this key support zone would be a result of intensified sell pressure within the market. When this development occurs, the Bitcoin price could see an even deeper correction towards the south side of the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去的市場週期也顯示，回調進入這一價格區域往往會在隨後的上漲動能中出現，因為 ‘買入回調’ 的心態可能佔據主導地位。可以預期，跌破這一關鍵支撐區域將是市場內賣壓加劇的結果。當這種情況發生時，比特幣價格可能會向下修正至更低的價格水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Metric Suggests $122,000 And $53,000 Are Next Crucial Zones To Watch</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>指標顯示$122,000 和$53,000 是下一個關鍵關注區域</strong></p>
</div><p>Notably, Bitcoin is expected to face another battle in the scenario where it breaks above the $99,000 resistance. Readings from the metric reveal that the +1 standard deviation band stands roughly at $122,000. Bullish rallies have often reached this price region, with significant resistance met to send prices sharply downwards. A break above the +1.0 deviation could therefore precede the formation of a new all-time-high price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，如果比特幣突破$99,000 阻力位，預計將面臨另一場戰鬥。指標的讀數顯示，+1 標準偏差區間大約在$122,000。看漲反彈通常會達到這一價格區域，並遇到顯著的阻力，導致價格急劇下跌。因此，突破 +1.0 偏差可能會預示着新歷史最高價的形成。</p>
</div><p>Also, the –1.0 deviation stands at the $53,000 price level. If the –0.5 deviation were to fail, the Bitcoin price could begin a bearish cycle towards $53,000, as it stands as the next significant support. This is so because it has historically functioned as a strong accumulation zone, where a bit of sideways movement was seen before major price expansions followed. At press time, Bitcoin stands at approximately $90,400, with a loss of %1.24 recorded since the last day, per CoinMarketCap data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，-1.0 偏差位於$53,000 價格水平。如果-0.5 偏差失效，比特幣價格可能會開始向$53,000 的看跌週期，因為它是下一個重要支撐。這是因為它在歷史上通常作為強有力的積累區域，在此之前會出現一些橫盤整理，然後隨之而來的是主要的價格擴張。截至發稿時，比特幣的價格約為$90,400，過去一天記錄了 1.24% 的損失，數據來源於 CoinMarketCap。</p>
</div>

比特幣面臨 76,000 美元和 99,000 美元的關鍵水平——接下來會如何發展？