<p>賣壓來自兩個方面，ETF 和鯨魚供應——它們都集中在同一價格區間。</p>
<p>美國以太坊現貨 ETF 每日淨流出為-1941 萬美元，而市場在過去三天內消化了一筆價值 2385 萬美元、數量為 7621 ETH 的鯨魚出售，價格接近 3129 美元。</p>
<p>這種堆疊的供應通常會導致更劇烈的拋售，尤其是在交易者已經處於謹慎狀態時。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png"/></p>
<p>來源：SosoValue</p>
<p>相反，以太坊的交易表現得好像買家故意在等待這些供應。</p>
<p>現貨和期貨流動性數據顯示，在多個短期窗口內呈現負面趨勢，但價格走勢保持穩定，向下的跟進有限。</p>
<p>以太坊在實現價格附近徘徊，使得信息更加明顯；賣方出現，但需求吸收了衝擊，並拒絕給予空頭動能。</p>
<h2><strong>誰在購買這些以太坊？</strong></h2>
<p>ETF 流出保持有序，指向的是輪換而非恐慌。鯨魚轉移增加了供應，但價格並未破裂，清晰地顯示出吸收的跡象。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>現貨和期貨數據顯示，以太坊 [ETH] 繼續以淨流出的方式離開交易所。</p>
<p>這種流出特徵避免了任何清算級聯，並使以太坊在實現價格附近保持穩定，將市場鎖定在 “賣出得到滿足” 的模式中。</p>
<h2><strong>實現價格仍然像彈簧板</strong></h2>
<p>以太坊的實現價格在之前的週期中多次標記拐點，一旦賣壓耗盡，通常會出現強勁的上漲擴展。</p>
<p>以太坊現在再次處於同一區域，當前反應與歷史行為相匹配，價格首先穩定，然後波動性擴大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>這為交易者提供了清晰的解讀。</p>
<p>如果實現價格持續保持，而供應不斷被吸收，市場通常會從分配轉向積累。如果實現價格失敗，圖表通常會尋找下一個需求口袋。</p>
<h2><strong>動能收緊，結構決定下一步</strong></h2>
<p>自 2632 美元拋售以來，以太坊保持了更高的高點和更高的低點的上升趨勢。相對強弱指數保持在低 40 區間，這符合整合而非完全崩潰。</p>
<p>在 MACD 上，藍線不斷接近橙色信號線，牛市需要儘快實現交叉，以避免額外的下行壓力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>上升支撐仍然是清晰的觸發點。反彈使 3600 美元的目標保持在考慮範圍內。</p>
<p>失去 2973 美元將削弱該設置，並增加向 50% 斐波那契區間深度回撤的可能性，買家之前對此做出了反應。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最終思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>實現價格仍然是吸收是否保持或失敗的戰場。</em></li>
<li><em>MACD 收斂和上升支撐將決定以太坊是擴展還是下跌。</em></li>
</ul>

ETHE

<p>儘管一隻鯨魚出售了 7,621 個 ETH，並且 ETF 出現資金流出，以太坊的價格仍然穩定在約 3,129 美元。買家吸收了供應，防止了價格的下跌。現貨和期貨數據顯示 ETH 正在離開交易所，避免了清算連鎖反應。實現價格作為支撐，如果吸收持續，價格有擴張的潛力。MACD 收斂和上升支撐是未來價格走勢的關鍵</p>

<p>Selling pressure built from two angles, ETFs and whale supply — it all arrived at the same price zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賣壓來自兩個方面，ETF 和鯨魚供應——它們都集中在同一價格區間。</p>
</div><p>U.S. ETH spot ETFs posted -$19.41M in daily net outflows, while the market digested a whale sale of 7,621 ETH worth $23.85M near $3,129 over the past three days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國以太坊現貨 ETF 每日淨流出為-1941 萬美元，而市場在過去三天內消化了一筆價值 2385 萬美元、數量為 7621 ETH 的鯨魚出售，價格接近 3129 美元。</p>
</div><p>That kind of stacked supply usually forces a sharper flush, especially when traders are already lean and cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種堆疊的供應通常會導致更劇烈的拋售，尤其是在交易者已經處於謹慎狀態時。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-soso.png"/></p>
<p>Source: SosoValue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：SosoValue</p>
</div><p>Instead, Ethereum kept trading as if buyers were waiting for that supply on purpose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，以太坊的交易表現得好像買家故意在等待這些供應。</p>
</div><p>Spot and Futures flow readings leant negative across multiple short windows, yet price action stayed controlled, with limited follow-through to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨和期貨流動性數據顯示，在多個短期窗口內呈現負面趨勢，但價格走勢保持穩定，向下的跟進有限。</p>
</div><p>ETH hovering around the realized price made the message louder; sellers showed up, but demand absorbed the hit and refused to hand bears momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊在實現價格附近徘徊，使得信息更加明顯；賣方出現，但需求吸收了衝擊，並拒絕給予空頭動能。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Who’s buying all this ETH?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>誰在購買這些以太坊？</strong></h2>
</div><p>ETF outflows stayed orderly, pointing to rotation rather than panic. Whale transfers added supply, yet the price didn’t crack, a clear sign of absorption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF 流出保持有序，指向的是輪換而非恐慌。鯨魚轉移增加了供應，但價格並未破裂，清晰地顯示出吸收的跡象。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-coinglass.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>Spot and Futures data showed Ethereum [ETH] continuing to leave exchanges on a net basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現貨和期貨數據顯示，以太坊 [ETH] 繼續以淨流出的方式離開交易所。</p>
</div><p>That outflow profile avoided any liquidation cascade and kept ETH steady around the realized price, locking the market in “sell gets met” mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種流出特徵避免了任何清算級聯，並使以太坊在實現價格附近保持穩定，將市場鎖定在 “賣出得到滿足” 的模式中。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Realized Price still acts like a springboard</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>實現價格仍然像彈簧板</strong></h2>
</div><p>Ethereum’s realized price has repeatedly marked inflection points across prior cycles, with strong upside expansions following once sell pressure exhausts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊的實現價格在之前的週期中多次標記拐點，一旦賣壓耗盡，通常會出現強勁的上漲擴展。</p>
</div><p>ETH now sits on that same zone again, and the current reaction matches the historical behavior, price stabilizes first, then volatility expands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊現在再次處於同一區域，當前反應與歷史行為相匹配，價格首先穩定，然後波動性擴大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-cq.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>That sets up a clean read for traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這為交易者提供了清晰的解讀。</p>
</div><p>If the realized price keeps holding while supply keeps getting absorbed, the market often shifts from distribution into accumulation. If the realized price fails, the chart typically searches for the next demand pocket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果實現價格持續保持，而供應不斷被吸收，市場通常會從分配轉向積累。如果實現價格失敗，圖表通常會尋找下一個需求口袋。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Momentum tightens, and structure decides the next leg</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>動能收緊，結構決定下一步</strong></h2>
</div><p>Since the $2,632 sell-off, Ethereum has maintained an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. RSI holds in the low 40s, which fits consolidation rather than a full breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2632 美元拋售以來，以太坊保持了更高的高點和更高的低點的上升趨勢。相對強弱指數保持在低 40 區間，這符合整合而非完全崩潰。</p>
</div><p>On MACD, the blue line keeps moving closer to the orange signal line, and bulls need that crossover sooner rather than later to avoid additional downside bleed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 MACD 上，藍線不斷接近橙色信號線，牛市需要儘快實現交叉，以避免額外的下行壓力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eth-TV.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Ascending support remains the clean trigger. A bounce keeps $3,600 in play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上升支撐仍然是清晰的觸發點。反彈使 3600 美元的目標保持在考慮範圍內。</p>
</div><p>A loss of $2,973 weakens the setup and increases the odds of a deeper retrace toward the 50% Fibonacci zone, where buyers previously reacted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失去 2973 美元將削弱該設置，並增加向 50% 斐波那契區間深度回撤的可能性，買家之前對此做出了反應。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最終思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Realized Price remains the battlefield where absorption either holds or fails.</em></li>
<li><em>MACD convergence and ascending support will decide whether ETH expands or bleeds.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>實現價格仍然是吸收是否保持或失敗的戰場。</em></li>
<li><em>MACD 收斂和上升支撐將決定以太坊是擴展還是下跌。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

一位巨鯨出售了 7600 枚 ETH——那麼為什麼以太坊沒有出現崩盤呢？