<p>市場的不確定性並沒有放過 L1 的鏈上動態。</p>
<p>Solana [SOL] 也不例外。從技術上講，SOL 是本季度表現最差的高市值資產，下降了 37%。事實上，這標誌着 SOL 自 2022 年第二季度以來最大的季度虧損，使得 FOMO 始終處於觀望狀態。</p>
<p>在持有者方面，拋售風險顯然在加劇。淨實現損失激增，短期持有者淨利潤率（&gt; 155 天）深陷紅色區域，顯示出教科書式的拋售，因為 SOL 從 250 美元的峯值下跌了 50%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView (SOL/USDT)</p>
<p>然而，長期持有者的耐心也在減弱。</p>
<p>鏈上指標顯示，Solana 的長期持有者淨利潤率回落至四月份的水平，這一水平曾引發 SOL 的 30% 跌幅。也就是説，在今天的風險規避市場中，這一回調可能只是經典的洗盤，衝擊弱勢持有者。</p>
<p>但這次感覺有所不同。</p>
<p>看跌的市場結構開始滲透到網絡基本面中。如果這一趨勢持續下去，SOL 可能面臨其最大的威脅，考驗其支撐水平和生態系統的韌性。</p>
<h2><strong>當盈虧平衡成本為 1700 萬美元時</strong></h2>
<p>SOL 一直在加大力度走向主流，以保持信心。</p>
<p>在 ETF 上市、Firedancer 升級上線、越來越多的機構採用鏈上代幣化資產以及多鏈雄心之間，摩根大通對 SOL 的熱情並不令人意外。</p>
<p>但市場並沒有完全認同這種看法。分析師對 Solana 的網絡健康狀況表示擔憂，因為驗證者數量在兩年內驟降 68%，僅剩約 800 個節點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>簡單來説，Solana 的質押正面臨嚴重壓力。</p>
<p>原因？技術疲軟。SOL 陷入了一個反饋循環，未能突破關鍵水平，扼殺了 FOMO，最終成為本季度表現最差的資產之一。這意味着質押成本正在經歷嚴峻的壓力測試。</p>
<p>作為背景，驗證者需要質押的 SOL 數量僅為盈虧平衡的三倍，每個區塊的成本約為 1700 萬美元。因此，驗證者感受到壓力，網絡安全面臨威脅。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，解除質押開始顯得合情合理。這就是為什麼 Solana 的回調不僅僅是一次 “健康的重置”。相反，驗證者的退出正在挑戰採用故事，提出關於網絡韌性的問題。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>Solana 的驗證者數量在兩年內下降了 68%，僅剩 800 個活躍節點，網絡安全面臨壓力。</em></li>
<li><em>盈虧平衡所需的 SOL 數量已增加三倍，節點運營成本為每個區塊 1700 萬美元，使得解除質押變得越來越合理。</em></li>
</ul>

HSDT

<p>Solana 面臨驗證者危機，目前僅剩 800 個節點，質押成本已上升至每個區塊 1700 萬美元。SOL 的價格在本季度下跌了 37%，創下自 2022 年第二季度以來的最差表現。由於驗證者的退出，網絡安全受到威脅，這對其採用故事和韌性構成挑戰</p>

<p>The market FUD hasn’t spared the on-chain dynamics of L1s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場的不確定性並沒有放過 L1 的鏈上動態。</p>
</div><p>Solana [SOL] is no exception. Technically, SOL is the worst-performing high-cap asset this quarter, dropping 37%. In fact, this marks SOL’s largest quarterly bleed since Q2 2022, keeping FOMO firmly on the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Solana [SOL] 也不例外。從技術上講，SOL 是本季度表現最差的高市值資產，下降了 37%。事實上，這標誌着 SOL 自 2022 年第二季度以來最大的季度虧損，使得 FOMO 始終處於觀望狀態。</p>
</div><p>On the HODLer front, capitulation risk is clearly building. Net realized losses are spiking, and STH NUPL (&gt; 155 days) is deep in the red, showing textbook capitulation as SOL has dropped 50% from its $250 peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在持有者方面，拋售風險顯然在加劇。淨實現損失激增，短期持有者淨利潤率（&gt; 155 天）深陷紅色區域，顯示出教科書式的拋售，因為 SOL 從 250 美元的峯值下跌了 50%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/SOLUSD_2025-12-14_14-14-54.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (SOL/USDT)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView (SOL/USDT)</p>
</div><p>However, patience is running thin among long-term holders too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，長期持有者的耐心也在減弱。</p>
</div><p>On-chain metrics show Solana’s LTH NUPL sliding back to the April levels that triggered SOL’s 30% dump. That said, in today’s risk-off market, this pullback could just be a classic shakeout, flushing out weak hands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鏈上指標顯示，Solana 的長期持有者淨利潤率回落至四月份的水平，這一水平曾引發 SOL 的 30% 跌幅。也就是説，在今天的風險規避市場中，這一回調可能只是經典的洗盤，衝擊弱勢持有者。</p>
</div><p>But this time feels different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這次感覺有所不同。</p>
</div><p>The bearish market structure is starting to seep into network fundamentals. If this trend holds, SOL could be staring down its biggest threat yet, testing both its support levels and the resilience of its ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌的市場結構開始滲透到網絡基本面中。如果這一趨勢持續下去，SOL 可能面臨其最大的威脅，考驗其支撐水平和生態系統的韌性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>When breaking even costs $17M</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>當盈虧平衡成本為 1700 萬美元時</strong></h2>
</div><p>SOL has been doubling down on going mainstream to keep its confidence up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SOL 一直在加大力度走向主流，以保持信心。</p>
</div><p>Between the ETF launch, the Firedancer upgrade going live, growing institutional adoption with more tokenized assets on-chain, and multi-blockchain ambitions, it’s no surprise JPMorgan is hyped on SOL.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ETF 上市、Firedancer 升級上線、越來越多的機構採用鏈上代幣化資產以及多鏈雄心之間，摩根大通對 SOL 的熱情並不令人意外。</p>
</div><p>But the market isn’t exactly vibing the same way. Analysts are raising eyebrows over Solana’s network health as validator numbers crater, down 68% in just two years, leaving only around 800 nodes standing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市場並沒有完全認同這種看法。分析師對 Solana 的網絡健康狀況表示擔憂，因為驗證者數量在兩年內驟降 68%，僅剩約 800 個節點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-14-143916.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>Simply put, Solana staking is under serious pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，Solana 的質押正面臨嚴重壓力。</p>
</div><p>The reason? Weak technicals. SOL’s stuck in a feedback loop, failing key levels, killing FOMO, and ending up one of the worst-performing assets this quarter. That means staking costs are getting stress-tested hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因？技術疲軟。SOL 陷入了一個反饋循環，未能突破關鍵水平，扼殺了 FOMO，最終成為本季度表現最差的資產之一。這意味着質押成本正在經歷嚴峻的壓力測試。</p>
</div><p>For context, the amount of SOL a validator needs to stake just to break even has tripled, costing around $17 million per block. Consequently, validators are feeling the squeeze, putting network security under threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為背景，驗證者需要質押的 SOL 數量僅為盈虧平衡的三倍，每個區塊的成本約為 1700 萬美元。因此，驗證者感受到壓力，網絡安全面臨威脅。</p>
</div><p>In this setup, unstaking starts to make total sense. That’s why Solana’s pullback isn’t just a “healthy reset.” Instead, validator exits are challenging the adoption story, raising questions about the network’s resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，解除質押開始顯得合情合理。這就是為什麼 Solana 的回調不僅僅是一次 “健康的重置”。相反，驗證者的退出正在挑戰採用故事，提出關於網絡韌性的問題。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Solana’s validator count has dropped 68% in two years, leaving only 800 active nodes and putting network security under pressure.</em></li>
<li><em>The SOL required to break even has tripled, with node ops costing $17 million per block, making unstaking increasingly logical.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Solana 的驗證者數量在兩年內下降了 68%，僅剩 800 個活躍節點，網絡安全面臨壓力。</em></li>
<li><em>盈虧平衡所需的 SOL 數量已增加三倍，節點運營成本為每個區塊 1700 萬美元，使得解除質押變得越來越合理。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Solana 的驗證者危機解析——800 個節點仍在運行，一個節點價值 1700 萬美元