<ul>
<li>想知道 Pegasystems 當前約 $59.63 的價格是否值得購買，還是説大幅上漲的機會已經過去？你並不孤單，這正是我們要在這裏探討的內容。</li>
<li>該股票年初至今上漲了 28.3%，過去一年上漲了 26.3%，但在過去 30 天僅小幅上漲 4.9%，而在上週略微下跌 0.8%，動能開始顯得更加複雜。</li>
<li>投資者對產品創新、戰略客户的成功以及圍繞 AI 驅動的工作流自動化的持續熱議作出了反應。所有這些因素都影響了對 Pegasystems 長期增長潛力的預期。同時，軟件和雲計算領域的重新關注也將更多目光吸引回像 Pegasystems 這樣的優質平台提供商，這有助於解釋其強勁的多年回報，包括三年內 233.7% 的漲幅。</li>
<li>儘管有這樣的歷史，Pegasystems 的估值評分僅為 2/6，因此我們將逐步分析不同的估值方法對該股票的真實看法，最後再看看一種更全面的方式來判斷當前價格是否合理。</li>
</ul>
<p>Pegasystems 在我們的估值檢查中僅得分 2/6。查看我們在完整估值分析中發現的其他警示信號。</p>
<h3>方法 1：Pegasystems 折現現金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折現現金流模型通過預測公司的未來現金流並將其折現回今天，以反映風險和時間價值，來估算公司的價值。</p>
<p>Pegasystems 目前產生約 4.246 億美元的自由現金流，分析師預計這一數字將保持穩定，但會逐漸減少。在 Simply Wall St 的兩階段自由現金流到股權模型下，自由現金流預計到 2035 年將達到約 2.405 億美元，早期年份（2026 至 2029 年）在 3.08 億至 5.58 億美元之間，隨着增長的正常化。這些長期數據部分基於分析師的估計，然後進一步推算。</p>
<p>當所有未來現金流被折現回現值時，該模型得出的內在價值大約為每股 26.16 美元。與今天約 59.63 美元的股價相比，DCF 模型表明該股票在現金流視角下被高估了約 127.9%。</p>
<p><strong>結果：高估</strong></p>
<p>我們的折現現金流（DCF）分析表明 Pegasystems 可能被高估了 127.9%。發現 908 只被低估的股票或創建您自己的篩選器以尋找更好的價值機會。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 PEGA 折現現金流</p>
<p>前往我們公司報告的估值部分，瞭解我們如何得出 Pegasystems 的公允價值的更多細節。</p>
<h3>方法 2：Pegasystems 市盈率</h3>
<p>對於持續盈利的公司，市盈率（PE）通常是首選的衡量標準，因為它直接將您為企業支付的價格與其已經產生的利潤聯繫起來。當投資者預期更快的盈利增長或將企業視為相對低風險時，較高的市盈率是合理的，而較慢的增長或更高的不確定性通常需要較低的、更保守的市盈率。</p>
<p>Pegasystems 當前的市盈率約為 36.4 倍。這高於更廣泛的軟件行業平均水平約 32.9 倍，但實際上低於更接近的上市同行的 42.7 倍平均水平。Simply Wall St 還計算出 Pegasystems 的公允比率為 28.8 倍，這是您在考慮其盈利增長前景、盈利能力、風險特徵、行業定位和市值後可能期望的市盈率。</p>
<p>這個公允比率比簡單的行業或同行比較更具針對性，因為它調整了 Pegasystems 的特定優勢和劣勢，而不是假設所有軟件公司都應獲得相同的倍數。與當前的 36.4 倍相比，28.8 倍的公允比率表明 Pegasystems 的交易價格相對其基本面支持的水平偏高，指向某種估值拉伸。</p>
<p><strong>結果：高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NasdaqGS:PEGA 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率講述了一個故事，但如果真正的機會在其他地方呢？發現 1445 家內部人士正在大舉押注於爆炸性增長的公司。</p>
<h3>提升您的決策能力：選擇您的 Pegasystems 故事</h3>
<p>我們之前提到過，還有一種更好的理解估值的方法，因此讓我們向您介紹 Narratives，這是一種簡單的方法，可以將您對 Pegasystems 故事的看法與其未來收入、盈利、利潤率以及最終您認為該股票價值的數字聯繫起來。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 上的 Narrative 是您為一家公司編寫的故事。您闡明為什麼您認為其產品、戰略和行業地位將以某種方式發展，平台將這一視角轉化為關聯的財務預測和公允價值估算。</p>
<p>Narratives 存在於 Simply Wall St 社區頁面上，易於創建和比較，它們通過將每個 Narrative 的公允價值與今天的股價對比，幫助您做出決策。這使得更容易看出某個故事是否建議買入、持有或賣出。</p>
<p>由於當新信息（如盈利或產品新聞）發佈時，Narratives 會動態更新，您可以觀察對 Pegasystems 的樂觀觀點（如目標約 78 美元每股）與更謹慎的觀點（接近 40 美元）之間的比較，並決定哪個故事和估值對您來説更具説服力。</p>
<p>您認為 Pegasystems 的故事還有更多內容嗎？前往我們的社區看看其他人怎麼説！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NasdaqGS:PEGA 1 年股票價格走勢圖</p>
<p><em>這篇來自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，採用無偏見的方法，我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。</strong> 它不構成買賣任何股票的推薦，也未考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是為您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意，我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中沒有持倉。</em></p>

PEGA

<p>Pegasystems 的股票在經歷了 233.7% 的三年飆升後，正在評估其增長潛力。儘管近期有所上漲，但現金流折現（DCF）和市盈率（PE）分析表明其被高估，DCF 顯示高估幅度為 127.9%，市盈率也高於行業平均水平。建議投資者考慮敍述性分析，以便進行全面的估值評估</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if Pegasystems at around $59.63 is a smart buy or if the big gains are already behind it? You are not alone, and that is exactly what we are going to unpack here.</li>
<li>The stock is up 28.3% year to date and 26.3% over the last year, but with a modest 4.9% gain over 30 days and a slight 0.8% dip in the last week, momentum is starting to look more nuanced.</li>
<li>Investors have been reacting to a mix of product innovation, strategic customer wins, and ongoing buzz around AI driven workflow automation. All of these factors feed into expectations about Pegasystems long term growth runway. At the same time, renewed interest in software and cloud names has pulled more attention back to quality platform providers like Pegasystems, helping explain those strong multi year returns, including a 233.7% gain over three years.</li>
<li>Despite that history, Pegasystems only scores a 2/6 valuation score, so we will walk through what different valuation methods are really saying about the stock, and then finish by looking at a more holistic way to judge whether the current price truly makes sense.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道 Pegasystems 當前約 $59.63 的價格是否值得購買，還是説大幅上漲的機會已經過去？你並不孤單，這正是我們要在這裏探討的內容。</li>
<li>該股票年初至今上漲了 28.3%，過去一年上漲了 26.3%，但在過去 30 天僅小幅上漲 4.9%，而在上週略微下跌 0.8%，動能開始顯得更加複雜。</li>
<li>投資者對產品創新、戰略客户的成功以及圍繞 AI 驅動的工作流自動化的持續熱議作出了反應。所有這些因素都影響了對 Pegasystems 長期增長潛力的預期。同時，軟件和雲計算領域的重新關注也將更多目光吸引回像 Pegasystems 這樣的優質平台提供商，這有助於解釋其強勁的多年回報，包括三年內 233.7% 的漲幅。</li>
<li>儘管有這樣的歷史，Pegasystems 的估值評分僅為 2/6，因此我們將逐步分析不同的估值方法對該股票的真實看法，最後再看看一種更全面的方式來判斷當前價格是否合理。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Pegasystems scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pegasystems 在我們的估值檢查中僅得分 2/6。查看我們在完整估值分析中發現的其他警示信號。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Pegasystems Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：Pegasystems 折現現金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today, to reflect risk and the time value of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折現現金流模型通過預測公司的未來現金流並將其折現回今天，以反映風險和時間價值，來估算公司的價值。</p>
</div><p>Pegasystems currently generates about $424.6 million in free cash flow, and analysts expect this to stay solid but gradually taper over time. Under Simply Wall St’s 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, free cash flow is projected to be around $240.5 million by 2035, with earlier years (2026 to 2029) in the $308 million to $558 million range as growth normalizes. These longer dated figures are partly based on analyst estimates and then extrapolated further out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pegasystems 目前產生約 4.246 億美元的自由現金流，分析師預計這一數字將保持穩定，但會逐漸減少。在 Simply Wall St 的兩階段自由現金流到股權模型下，自由現金流預計到 2035 年將達到約 2.405 億美元，早期年份（2026 至 2029 年）在 3.08 億至 5.58 億美元之間，隨着增長的正常化。這些長期數據部分基於分析師的估計，然後進一步推算。</p>
</div><p>When all those future cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $26.16 per share. Compared with today’s share price of approximately $59.63, the DCF suggests the stock is about 127.9% overvalued on this cash flow view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當所有未來現金流被折現回現值時，該模型得出的內在價值大約為每股 26.16 美元。與今天約 59.63 美元的股價相比，DCF 模型表明該股票在現金流視角下被高估了約 127.9%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>結果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Pegasystems may be overvalued by 127.9%. Discover 908 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們的折現現金流（DCF）分析表明 Pegasystems 可能被高估了 127.9%。發現 908 只被低估的股票或創建您自己的篩選器以尋找更好的價值機會。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>PEGA Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 PEGA 折現現金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Pegasystems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我們公司報告的估值部分，瞭解我們如何得出 Pegasystems 的公允價值的更多細節。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Pegasystems Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：Pegasystems 市盈率</h3>
</div><p>For companies that are consistently profitable, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is often the go to yardstick because it directly links what you pay for the business to the profits it is already generating. A higher PE can be justified when investors expect faster earnings growth or see the business as relatively low risk, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually calls for a lower, more conservative PE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於持續盈利的公司，市盈率（PE）通常是首選的衡量標準，因為它直接將您為企業支付的價格與其已經產生的利潤聯繫起來。當投資者預期更快的盈利增長或將企業視為相對低風險時，較高的市盈率是合理的，而較慢的增長或更高的不確定性通常需要較低的、更保守的市盈率。</p>
</div><p>Pegasystems currently trades on a PE of about 36.4x. That is above the broader Software industry average of roughly 32.9x, but actually below the 42.7x average of closer listed peers. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 28.8x for Pegasystems, which is the PE you might expect once you factor in its earnings growth outlook, profitability, risk profile, industry positioning and market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pegasystems 當前的市盈率約為 36.4 倍。這高於更廣泛的軟件行業平均水平約 32.9 倍，但實際上低於更接近的上市同行的 42.7 倍平均水平。Simply Wall St 還計算出 Pegasystems 的公允比率為 28.8 倍，這是您在考慮其盈利增長前景、盈利能力、風險特徵、行業定位和市值後可能期望的市盈率。</p>
</div><p>This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for Pegasystems specific strengths and weaknesses rather than assuming all software names deserve the same multiple. When set against the current 36.4x, the 28.8x Fair Ratio suggests Pegasystems is trading rich relative to what its fundamentals support, pointing to some valuation stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個公允比率比簡單的行業或同行比較更具針對性，因為它調整了 Pegasystems 的特定優勢和劣勢，而不是假設所有軟件公司都應獲得相同的倍數。與當前的 36.4 倍相比，28.8 倍的公允比率表明 Pegasystems 的交易價格相對其基本面支持的水平偏高，指向某種估值拉伸。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>結果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NasdaqGS:PEGA PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NasdaqGS:PEGA 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率講述了一個故事，但如果真正的機會在其他地方呢？發現 1445 家內部人士正在大舉押注於爆炸性增長的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Pegasystems Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升您的決策能力：選擇您的 Pegasystems 故事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of the Pegasystems story with the numbers behind its future revenue, earnings, margins, and ultimately what you think the stock is worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們之前提到過，還有一種更好的理解估值的方法，因此讓我們向您介紹 Narratives，這是一種簡單的方法，可以將您對 Pegasystems 故事的看法與其未來收入、盈利、利潤率以及最終您認為該股票價值的數字聯繫起來。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own story for a company. You spell out why you think its products, strategy, and industry position will play out a certain way, and the platform turns that perspective into a linked financial forecast and fair value estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 上的 Narrative 是您為一家公司編寫的故事。您闡明為什麼您認為其產品、戰略和行業地位將以某種方式發展，平台將這一視角轉化為關聯的財務預測和公允價值估算。</p>
</div><p>Narratives live on the Simply Wall St Community page, are easy to create and compare, and they help you make decisions by lining up each Narrative s Fair Value against today s share price. This makes it easier to see whether a given story suggests buy, hold, or sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Narratives 存在於 Simply Wall St 社區頁面上，易於創建和比較，它們通過將每個 Narrative 的公允價值與今天的股價對比，幫助您做出決策。這使得更容易看出某個故事是否建議買入、持有或賣出。</p>
</div><p>Because Narratives update dynamically when new information such as earnings or product news is released, you can watch how bullish views on Pegasystems, such as those targeting around $78 per share, compare with more cautious perspectives closer to $40, and decide which story and valuation you find most convincing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於當新信息（如盈利或產品新聞）發佈時，Narratives 會動態更新，您可以觀察對 Pegasystems 的樂觀觀點（如目標約 78 美元每股）與更謹慎的觀點（接近 40 美元）之間的比較，並決定哪個故事和估值對您來説更具説服力。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Pegasystems? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您認為 Pegasystems 的故事還有更多內容嗎？前往我們的社區看看其他人怎麼説！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/c99b1760-30a2-4656-a9d5-d723f6ddac75/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NasdaqGS:PEGA 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NasdaqGS:PEGA 1 年股票價格走勢圖</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>這篇來自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論，採用無偏見的方法，我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。</strong> 它不構成買賣任何股票的推薦，也未考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是為您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意，我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中沒有持倉。</em></p>
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在經歷了三年 233.7% 的漲幅後，Pega 股票是否過於高估了增長潛力？