<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Oil-barrels-at-a-port.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Oil-barrels-at-a-port.png"/></p>
<p>美國最近在委內瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油輪對中國市場的直接影響有限。</p>
<p>據路透社報道，委內瑞拉大量石油已經運往中國，該國目前在儲存中有原油過剩，因國內需求疲軟。</p>
<p>這家南美生產國的出口量已經顯著下降。</p>
<p>這一下降是由於美國在委內瑞拉海岸扣押油輪以及對與該國貿易的航運公司和船隻實施新制裁所導致的。</p>
<p>進一步扣押的可能性正在抑制更多的貨物運輸。</p>
<p>作為全球最大的石油進口國，中國是委內瑞拉原油的主要買家，儘管這一供應僅佔中國總原油進口的約 4%。</p>
<h2>進口可能上升</h2>
<p>預計中國將在本月和下月增加委內瑞拉的石油進口。</p>
<p>這一預測基於過去四個月出口的激增，以及原油的顯著折扣，依據新聞報道。</p>
<p>這些因素使得原油對中國的獨立煉油商特別有吸引力，儘管交貨可能需要長達 60 天。</p>
<p>能源諮詢公司 XAnalysts 的創始人兼首席執行官 Mukesh Sahdev 在路透社的報道中表示：“委內瑞拉流向中國的激增是為了預期制裁。”</p>
<p>他還預測，油輪扣押及任何後續制裁或扣押的後果預計將在二月份顯現。</p>
<p>分析師預計，委內瑞拉主要出口等級 Merey 原油在中國的到貨量將在 12 月顯著增加。</p>
<p>油輪追蹤公司 Vortexa 估計，這些到貨量將超過每天 60 萬桶。</p>
<p>Kpler 的初步預測甚至更高，達到 664,000 桶/天，這一數字可能會修正，他們指出這將創下新紀錄。</p>
<h2>浮動儲存量上升</h2>
<p>來自委內瑞拉的交付增加，加上來自其他受制裁生產國如俄羅斯和伊朗的大量運輸，導致油品過剩不斷增加，這些油品越來越多地被儲存在亞洲的浮動儲存中。</p>
<p>根據 Kpler 的數據，上週亞洲的浮動石油儲存量上升至 7100 萬桶，較 10 月底記錄的 5300 萬桶和 9 月初的 3300 萬桶大幅增加。</p>
<p>這一儲存量的顯著增加加劇了對委內瑞拉原油的壓力，導致折扣加深。</p>
<p>Vortexa 分析師 Emma Li 表示，預計在 11 月卸貨的每天 65 萬桶 Merey 原油中，至少有三分之一仍在尋找最終買家。</p>
<p>根據報道，關於供應短缺的直接擔憂已被來自俄羅斯和伊朗的豐富原油以及運往中國的委內瑞拉原油所緩解。</p>
<p>然而，一位常規買家的交易經理指出，現在還為時已晚，無法全面評估扣押對石油供應的影響。</p>
<p>作為對地緣政治風險的預防措施，該公司已開始購買 “少量” 的加拿大 TMX 原油。</p>
<h2>茶壺煉油廠購買委內瑞拉原油</h2>
<p>對於中國的委內瑞拉原油買家——主要是獨立的 “茶壺” 煉油商而言，Merey 等級雖然在整體市場份額中佔比小，但卻非常重要。</p>
<p>這些買家很難找到立即且具有成本效益的替代這種特定類型石油的方案。</p>
<p>據報道，只有大約六家茶壺煉油廠定期購買委內瑞拉石油。</p>
<p>然而，這些設施面臨着供應中斷的潛在成本以及需要尋找替代供應的壓力。</p>
<p>目前中國對 Merey 的需求處於季節性低谷。</p>
<p>這在上海期貨交易所得到了體現，最活躍的瀝青期貨自 10 月底以來一直呈下行趨勢。</p>
<p>儘管該合約在過去三天自週四以來略有上漲，但累計增幅仍不足 1%。</p>
<p>Merey 是一種超重質原油，其經濟性顯著優於來自哥倫比亞的 Castilla 和來自加拿大的 Access Western Blend 等可比等級。</p>
<p>美國扣押委內瑞拉油輪後對中國石油市場的直接影響有限，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>美國對一艘委內瑞拉油輪的扣押對中國的石油市場影響有限。儘管發生了扣押，但大量委內瑞拉石油已經在運往中國的途中，由於需求疲軟，中國的原油供應過剩。預計中國將增加委內瑞拉石油進口，預計到貨量將創下紀錄。扣押事件和潛在制裁可能會影響未來的運輸，但當前的供應受到來自俄羅斯和伊朗進口的支持。獨立的中國煉油廠，作為委內瑞拉原油的主要買家，面臨尋找替代品的挑戰</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Oil-barrels-at-a-port.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Oil-barrels-at-a-port.png"/></p>
<p>The recent US seizure of a tanker off Venezuela’s coast will have a limited immediate effect on the Chinese market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國最近在委內瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油輪對中國市場的直接影響有限。</p>
</div><p>A significant amount of Venezuelan oil was already headed to China with the country having a current surplus of crude in storage amid weaker domestic demand, according to a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據路透社報道，委內瑞拉大量石油已經運往中國，該國目前在儲存中有原油過剩，因國內需求疲軟。</p>
</div><p>Exports from the South American producer have dropped significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家南美生產國的出口量已經顯著下降。</p>
</div><p>This decline follows the US seizure of a tanker off Venezuela’s coast and the imposition of new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels involved in trade with the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一下降是由於美國在委內瑞拉海岸扣押油輪以及對與該國貿易的航運公司和船隻實施新制裁所導致的。</p>
</div><p>The possibility of additional seizures is discouraging further shipments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進一步扣押的可能性正在抑制更多的貨物運輸。</p>
</div><p>As the world’s leading oil importer, China is the primary purchaser of Venezuelan crude, although this supply constitutes only about 4% of China’s total crude imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為全球最大的石油進口國，中國是委內瑞拉原油的主要買家，儘管這一供應僅佔中國總原油進口的約 4%。</p>
</div><h2>Imports likely to rise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>進口可能上升</h2>
</div><p>China is anticipated to see an increase in Venezuelan oil imports this month and next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計中國將在本月和下月增加委內瑞拉的石油進口。</p>
</div><p>This projection is based on a recent surge in exports over the past four months, coupled with significant discounts on the crude, according to the news report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一預測基於過去四個月出口的激增，以及原油的顯著折扣，依據新聞報道。</p>
</div><p>These factors make the oil particularly appealing to independent refiners in China, the primary purchasers, despite the fact that delivery can take up to 60 days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些因素使得原油對中國的獨立煉油商特別有吸引力，儘管交貨可能需要長達 60 天。</p>
</div><p>“The surge in Venezuela flow to China increased in anticipation of sanctions,” Mukesh Sahdev, founder &amp; CEO of energy consultancy XAnalysts, was quoted in the Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源諮詢公司 XAnalysts 的創始人兼首席執行官 Mukesh Sahdev 在路透社的報道中表示：“委內瑞拉流向中國的激增是為了預期制裁。”</p>
</div><p>He also predicted the consequences of the tanker seizure—and any subsequent sanctions or seizures—are expected to materialise in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他還預測，油輪扣押及任何後續制裁或扣押的後果預計將在二月份顯現。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are projecting a significant increase in the arrival of Merey crude, Venezuela’s primary export grade, in China for December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計，委內瑞拉主要出口等級 Merey 原油在中國的到貨量將在 12 月顯著增加。</p>
</div><p>Tanker tracker Vortexa estimates these arrivals will surpass 600,000 barrels per day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油輪追蹤公司 Vortexa 估計，這些到貨量將超過每天 60 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>Kpler’s initial projection is even higher, at 664,000 bpd, a figure subject to revision, which they note would set a new record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kpler 的初步預測甚至更高，達到 664,000 桶/天，這一數字可能會修正，他們指出這將創下新紀錄。</p>
</div><h2>Rising volume in floating storage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>浮動儲存量上升</h2>
</div><p>Increased deliveries from Venezuela, along with substantial shipments from other sanctioned producers like Russia and Iran, have contributed to a growing surplus of oil, which is increasingly being held in floating storage across Asia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自委內瑞拉的交付增加，加上來自其他受制裁生產國如俄羅斯和伊朗的大量運輸，導致油品過剩不斷增加，這些油品越來越多地被儲存在亞洲的浮動儲存中。</p>
</div><p>According to Kpler data, Asian floating oil storage escalated to 71 million barrels last week, a significant jump from 53 million barrels recorded at the end of October and 33 million barrels in early September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Kpler 的數據，上週亞洲的浮動石油儲存量上升至 7100 萬桶，較 10 月底記錄的 5300 萬桶和 9 月初的 3300 萬桶大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>This substantial increase in storage has exacerbated the pressure on Venezuelan crude, leading to deeper discounts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一儲存量的顯著增加加劇了對委內瑞拉原油的壓力，導致折扣加深。</p>
</div><p>According to Vortexa analyst Emma Li, at least a third of the estimated 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Merey oil discharged in China during November is still seeking end-buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Vortexa 分析師 Emma Li 表示，預計在 11 月卸貨的每天 65 萬桶 Merey 原油中，至少有三分之一仍在尋找最終買家。</p>
</div><p>The immediate concern about supply shortages has been mitigated by abundant crude oil available from Russia and Iran, as well as Venezuelan barrels heading to China, according to the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據報道，關於供應短缺的直接擔憂已被來自俄羅斯和伊朗的豐富原油以及運往中國的委內瑞拉原油所緩解。</p>
</div><p>However, one trading manager from a frequent buyer noted that it is too soon to fully assess the impact of the seizure on oil supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一位常規買家的交易經理指出，現在還為時已晚，無法全面評估扣押對石油供應的影響。</p>
</div><p>As a precautionary measure against geopolitical risks, the company has begun purchasing “small amounts” of Canadian TMX crude.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為對地緣政治風險的預防措施，該公司已開始購買 “少量” 的加拿大 TMX 原油。</p>
</div><h2>Teapot refineries purchase Venezuelan crude</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>茶壺煉油廠購買委內瑞拉原油</h2>
</div><p>For the Chinese buyers of Venezuelan crude—predominantly independent “teapot” refiners—the Merey grade, though representing a small overall market share, is important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於中國的委內瑞拉原油買家——主要是獨立的 “茶壺” 煉油商而言，Merey 等級雖然在整體市場份額中佔比小，但卻非常重要。</p>
</div><p>Finding immediate, cost-effective alternatives to this specific type of oil would be difficult for these buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些買家很難找到立即且具有成本效益的替代這種特定類型石油的方案。</p>
</div><p>According to the report, only approximately six of these teapot refiners regularly purchase Venezuelan oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據報道，只有大約六家茶壺煉油廠定期購買委內瑞拉石油。</p>
</div><p>However, these facilities face potential costs from supply disruptions and the need to source alternative supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這些設施面臨着供應中斷的潛在成本以及需要尋找替代供應的壓力。</p>
</div><p>Demand for Merey in China is currently at a seasonal trough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前中國對 Merey 的需求處於季節性低谷。</p>
</div><p>This is reflected in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where the most-traded bitumen futures have been on a downward trend since late October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在上海期貨交易所得到了體現，最活躍的瀝青期貨自 10 月底以來一直呈下行趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Although the contract has seen minor gains over the last three sessions since Thursday, the cumulative increase remains less than 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管該合約在過去三天自週四以來略有上漲，但累計增幅仍不足 1%。</p>
</div><p>Merey, an extra-heavy crude grade, is significantly more economical than comparable grades like Castilla from Colombia and Access Western Blend from Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Merey 是一種超重質原油，其經濟性顯著優於來自哥倫比亞的 Castilla 和來自加拿大的 Access Western Blend 等可比等級。</p>
</div><p>The post US' seizure of Venezuelan tanker has limited immediate impact on China's oil market appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國扣押委內瑞拉油輪後對中國石油市場的直接影響有限，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

美國扣押委內瑞拉油輪對中國石油市場的直接影響有限