<p>全球宏觀分析師盧克·格羅門（Luke Gromen）正在收回對比特幣的支持，警告稱這一頭號加密貨幣看起來暴露，可能在 2026 年跌至 40,000 美元區間。這標誌着格羅門的重大轉變，他多年來一直將比特幣與黃金（<strong>CM:XAUUSD</strong>）捆綁在一起，視其為對抗政府印鈔和貨幣貶值的終極 “貶值交易” 對沖工具。</p>
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<p>格羅門認為，加密貨幣的風險回報特徵在短期內惡化。他現在認為黃金和某些股票在表達法定貨幣將失去實際價值的核心論點方面做得更好。觸發這種謹慎的關鍵信號包括比特幣近期未能創出新高、突破關鍵技術移動平均線，以及對量子風險的日益擔憂。</p>
<h2><strong>宏觀擔憂首先影響加密貨幣</strong></h2>
<p>當前的宏觀不安導致比特幣與其傳統同行黃金之間出現關鍵分歧。貶值交易理論表明，投資者會轉向稀缺的非法定資產，因為政策制定者不可避免地會通過通貨膨脹來消除國家債務。然而，黃金目前被視為在急性壓力時期的更安全的第一線避風港，而比特幣往往更像是一種 “風險資產”，只有在流動性恢復後才會受益。</p>
<p>這種價格脱節，加上分析師中較低的買入評級比例以及對人工智能行業估值的擔憂，表明比特幣作為價值儲存的即時吸引力正在減弱。對格羅門而言，這使得比特幣成為一個可以並且應該 “戰術性減倉” 的頭寸，即使長期的貶值結構論點依然存在。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣多頭反擊</strong></h2>
<p>專注於比特幣的分析師們對格羅門的看跌觀點進行了強烈反擊，認為他的技術證據薄弱，基於破裂的移動平均線進行賣出是市場已經低迷時的經典錯誤。鏈上分析師建議格羅門過於依賴社交媒體敍事，而不是基本的區塊鏈數據。</p>
<p>儘管宏觀前景謹慎，但局勢並非完全悲觀。美國現貨比特幣 ETF 在上個月經歷了一次劇烈的流出後，最近又迴歸到適度的淨流入，表明機構需求正在穩定。最終，格羅門的立場提醒人們，即使是比特幣長期價值的最大支持者，在圖表和宏觀敍事與之對立時，也願意戰術性地減持該資產。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格為 86,853.97 美元。</p>
</blockquote>

GBTC

<p>宏觀分析師盧克·格羅門預測，比特幣可能在 2026 年前跌至 40,000 美元，改變了他對比特幣作為貶值對沖工具的看法。他提到比特幣未能超越黃金、技術性突破以及量子風險的擔憂。儘管比特幣的長期價值，格羅門建議戰術性減少比特幣持有量。比特幣分析師反駁了他的看跌觀點，指出機構需求正在穩定。目前比特幣的價格為 86,853.97 美元</p>

<p>Global macro analyst Luke Gromen is pulling back his support for Bitcoin, warning that the number-one crypto looks exposed and could potentially drop to the $40,000 range in 2026. This marks a big shift for Gromen, who has spent years bundling Bitcoin with gold ( <strong>CM:XAUUSD</strong>) as the ultimate &#34;debasement trade&#34; hedge against governments printing money and weakening currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球宏觀分析師盧克·格羅門（Luke Gromen）正在收回對比特幣的支持，警告稱這一頭號加密貨幣看起來暴露，可能在 2026 年跌至 40,000 美元區間。這標誌着格羅門的重大轉變，他多年來一直將比特幣與黃金（<strong>CM:XAUUSD</strong>）捆綁在一起，視其為對抗政府印鈔和貨幣貶值的終極 “貶值交易” 對沖工具。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>享受 TipRanks Premium 50% 折扣，放心投資</h3>
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<li>Unlock hedge-fund level data and powerful investing tools designed to help you make smarter, sharper decisions</li>
<li>Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis so your portfolio is always positioned for maximum potential</li>
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<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>解鎖對沖基金級別的數據和強大的投資工具，幫助您做出更聰明、更精準的決策</li>
<li>通過最新的新聞和分析保持市場領先，使您的投資組合始終處於最大潛力的狀態</li>
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</div><p>Gromen argues that the crypto's risk-reward profile has worsened in the near term. He now believes gold and certain equities are doing a better job of expressing the core thesis that fiat currencies will lose real value. The key signals triggering this caution include Bitcoin's recent failure to establish new highs versus gold, a breach of key technical moving averages, and growing fears surrounding quantum risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>格羅門認為，加密貨幣的風險回報特徵在短期內惡化。他現在認為黃金和某些股票在表達法定貨幣將失去實際價值的核心論點方面做得更好。觸發這種謹慎的關鍵信號包括比特幣近期未能創出新高、突破關鍵技術移動平均線，以及對量子風險的日益擔憂。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Macro Concerns Are Hitting Crypto First</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏觀擔憂首先影響加密貨幣</strong></h2>
</div><p>The current macro jitters are causing a key divergence between Bitcoin and its traditional peer, gold. The debasement trade theory suggests investors move into scarce, non-fiat assets because policymakers will inevitably inflate away national debts. However, gold is currently seen as the safer, first-line refuge in times of acute stress, while Bitcoin often behaves more like a &#34;risk-on&#34; asset that benefits only after liquidity returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前的宏觀不安導致比特幣與其傳統同行黃金之間出現關鍵分歧。貶值交易理論表明，投資者會轉向稀缺的非法定資產，因為政策制定者不可避免地會通過通貨膨脹來消除國家債務。然而，黃金目前被視為在急性壓力時期的更安全的第一線避風港，而比特幣往往更像是一種 “風險資產”，只有在流動性恢復後才會受益。</p>
</div><p>This price disconnect, combined with the low Buy-rating ratio among analysts and concerns about the AI industry's valuation, suggests Bitcoin is losing its immediate appeal as a store of value. For Gromen, this makes Bitcoin a position that can and should be &#34;sized down tactically&#34; even if the long-term structural case for debasement remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種價格脱節，加上分析師中較低的買入評級比例以及對人工智能行業估值的擔憂，表明比特幣作為價值儲存的即時吸引力正在減弱。對格羅門而言，這使得比特幣成為一個可以並且應該 “戰術性減倉” 的頭寸，即使長期的貶值結構論點依然存在。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin Bulls Push Back</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣多頭反擊</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin-focused analysts are pushing back hard against Gromen's bearish call, arguing that his technical evidence is weak and that selling based on broken moving averages is a classic mistake made when markets are already depressed. Onchain analysts suggest that Gromen is relying too heavily on social media narratives rather than fundamental underlying blockchain data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專注於比特幣的分析師們對格羅門的看跌觀點進行了強烈反擊，認為他的技術證據薄弱，基於破裂的移動平均線進行賣出是市場已經低迷時的經典錯誤。鏈上分析師建議格羅門過於依賴社交媒體敍事，而不是基本的區塊鏈數據。</p>
</div><p>Despite the cautious macro outlook, the picture is not one of outright doom. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, after a sharp exodus last month, have recently swung back to modest net inflows, suggesting institutional demand is stabilizing. Ultimately, Gromen's stance serves as a crucial reminder that even the biggest proponents of Bitcoin's long-term value are willing to shed the asset tactically when the charts and macro narratives align against it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管宏觀前景謹慎，但局勢並非完全悲觀。美國現貨比特幣 ETF 在上個月經歷了一次劇烈的流出後，最近又迴歸到適度的淨流入，表明機構需求正在穩定。最終，格羅門的立場提醒人們，即使是比特幣長期價值的最大支持者，在圖表和宏觀敍事與之對立時，也願意戰術性地減持該資產。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $86,853.97.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格為 86,853.97 美元。</p>
</blockquote>
</div>

宏觀專家盧克·格羅門預測比特幣將達到 40,000 美元。“貶值交易” 是否已經失效？