<p>上週美元指數在壓力下收盤，但並未崩潰。價格大部分時間停滯在之前的反彈上，因為廣泛但不均勻的拋售導致其表現不佳。不過，它仍然強於長期疲軟的 日元。</p>
<p>市場情緒波動，資產類別之間存在分歧。科技和人工智能相關股票下跌，而更傳統和價值導向的行業表現較好。這種混合狀態支持了高貝塔外匯，但未能達到經典的 “風險偏好” 在美元上的投降。</p>
<p>在表面之下，貨幣最重要的發展是美國利率的突然重新定價，10 年期收益率在短暫測試關鍵 技術支撐 後迅速上升。這一變化更多是由於對未來美聯儲領導層和寬鬆週期持久性的政策風險重新評估，而非數據驅動。</p>
<p>對於外匯市場而言，這一變動給一直在形成的清晰看空美元敍事注入了懷疑。其他方面，政策分歧仍然是主導主題。瑞士法郎在瑞士國家銀行反對過早寬鬆預期後保持強勢。歐元主要因美元疲軟而上漲，而非自身宏觀故事的改善。</p>
<p>儘管新西蘭元表現良好，受到相對央行鷹派立場的支持，但澳元因疲軟的勞動數據和加息預期減弱而落後。英鎊因增長數據疲軟和國內背景脆弱而下跌。</p>
<h2>關注的貨幣對</h2>
<h3>1. GBP SGD</h3>
<p>該貨幣對在突破大部分 11 月的緊密整合後上漲。然而，在達到關鍵水平 1.73170 後，未能維持其動能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="672" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png"/></p>
<p>GBP SGD 日線圖，來源：TradingView</p>
<p>趨勢現在面臨消退和回調至上個月低點的風險。只要價格未能在日線圖上收於之前高點之上，這一論點更有可能實現。</p>
<h3>2. EUR NZD</h3>
<p>在經歷了從年內高點的顯著回調後，該貨幣對在 10 月低點找到了支撐。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="690" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png"/></p>
<p>EUR NZD 日線圖，來源：TradingView</p>
<p>儘管如此，整體趨勢仍然看漲。特別是如果價格能夠突破短期阻力位 2.0303。在這種情況下，向關鍵水平 2.05160 的潛在激增將是一個機會。</p>
<h3>下週展望</h3>
<p>重點將放在觀察美國收益率是否能夠維持上週的反彈。10 年期利率的持久突破將為美元提供支撐，並可能引發在擁擠的空頭頭寸中進行平倉，特別是針對歐元和瑞士法郎。</p>
<p>如果收益率未能繼續上漲，將恢復美元的整體下行趨勢，並支持高貝塔外匯。從數據來看，美國的通脹和勞動市場發佈將主要顯示它們在多大程度上驗證或挑戰美聯儲路徑的近期重新定價。預計英格蘭銀行將降息 25 個基點，日本銀行將加息 25 個基點，而市場普遍預期歐洲央行將維持在 2.15%。</p>
<p><strong>免責聲明：</strong> 本文中表達的任何觀點不應被視為投資建議，僅代表作者個人觀點。新加坡外匯俱樂部對基於本文內容的任何財務決策不承擔責任。我們提供教育、研究和經紀人評論。讀者可以將這些數據用於信息和教育目的。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性編輯。</em></strong></p>

<p>外匯市場受到中央銀行行動的影響，美元指數因對未來美聯儲領導層的政策風險重新評估而承壓。瑞士法郎保持強勢，而歐元則因美元疲軟而上漲。英鎊受到疲弱增長數據的影響。市場的關鍵關注點在於美國收益率和中央銀行的決策，包括對英格蘭銀行、日本銀行和歐洲央行預期的利率變化。市場情緒複雜，科技股下跌，而價值板塊表現較好</p>

<p>The US Dollar Index closed last week under pressure but not in a collapse. The price mostly stalled the prior rebound, as broad but uneven selling prompted its underperformance. Still, it was stronger than the chronically weak Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週美元指數在壓力下收盤，但並未崩潰。價格大部分時間停滯在之前的反彈上，因為廣泛但不均勻的拋售導致其表現不佳。不過，它仍然強於長期疲軟的 日元。</p>
</div><p>Markets saw choppy risk sentiment, with divergence between asset classes. Tech and AI-related equities sank, while more traditional and value-oriented sectors fared better. This mix kept high‑beta FX supported but stopped short of a classic &#34;risk‑on&#34; capitulation in the Dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場情緒波動，資產類別之間存在分歧。科技和人工智能相關股票下跌，而更傳統和價值導向的行業表現較好。這種混合狀態支持了高貝塔外匯，但未能達到經典的 “風險偏好” 在美元上的投降。</p>
</div><p>Under the surface, the most important development for currencies was the sudden repricing in U.S. rates, with 10‑year yields snapping higher after briefly testing key technical support. The shift was driven less by data and more by policy‑risk reassessment around the future Fed leadership and the durability of the easing cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在表面之下，貨幣最重要的發展是美國利率的突然重新定價，10 年期收益率在短暫測試關鍵 技術支撐 後迅速上升。這一變化更多是由於對未來美聯儲領導層和寬鬆週期持久性的政策風險重新評估，而非數據驅動。</p>
</div><p>For FX, that move injected doubt into the clean bearish USD narrative that had been building. Elsewhere, policy divergence remained the dominant theme. The Swiss Franc stayed bid after the SNB leaned against premature easing expectations. Euro gained primarily on Dollar weakness rather than any improvement in its own macro story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於外匯市場而言，這一變動給一直在形成的清晰看空美元敍事注入了懷疑。其他方面，政策分歧仍然是主導主題。瑞士法郎在瑞士國家銀行反對過早寬鬆預期後保持強勢。歐元主要因美元疲軟而上漲，而非自身宏觀故事的改善。</p>
</div><p>While the New Zealand Dollar did fine, supported by relative central bank hawkishness, the Aussie lagged on softer labour data and fading rate hike pricing. The British pound traded lower on weak growth data and a more vulnerable domestic backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管新西蘭元表現良好，受到相對央行鷹派立場的支持，但澳元因疲軟的勞動數據和加息預期減弱而落後。英鎊因增長數據疲軟和國內背景脆弱而下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Pairs in Focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關注的貨幣對</h2>
</div><h3>1. GBP SGD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>1. GBP SGD</h3>
</div><p>This pair rallied after breaking out of the tight consolidation that occurred through most of November. Yet, after reaching a key level at 1.73170, it failed to sustain its momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該貨幣對在突破大部分 11 月的緊密整合後上漲。然而，在達到關鍵水平 1.73170 後，未能維持其動能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124744/GBPSGD_2025-12-14_17-42-39-1024x672.png"/></p>
<p>GBP SGD daily chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GBP SGD 日線圖，來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The trend is now at risk of a fadeout and a correction to the lows of the last month. This thesis is more likely to play out as long as the price doesn’t close above the previous high on the daily chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趨勢現在面臨消退和回調至上個月低點的風險。只要價格未能在日線圖上收於之前高點之上，這一論點更有可能實現。</p>
</div><h3>2. EUR NZD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2. EUR NZD</h3>
</div><p>After a significant pullback from the year’s highs, this pair found support at the October lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在經歷了從年內高點的顯著回調後，該貨幣對在 10 月低點找到了支撐。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/15124733/EURNZD_2025-12-14_17-51-23-1024x690.png"/></p>
<p>EUR NZD daily chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR NZD 日線圖，來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Still, an overall trend remains bullish. Particularly if the price manages to overcome a short-term resistance at 2.0303. In that case, a potential for a spike toward a key level of 2.05160 would be an opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，整體趨勢仍然看漲。特別是如果價格能夠突破短期阻力位 2.0303。在這種情況下，向關鍵水平 2.05160 的潛在激增將是一個機會。</p>
</div><h3>The Week Ahead</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>下週展望</h3>
</div><p>The focus will be on observing whether the U.S. yields can sustain last week's rebound. A durable break higher in 10‑year rates would provide the Dollar with a floor and could trigger position‑squaring among crowded shorts, particularly against the Euro and the Swiss Franc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重點將放在觀察美國收益率是否能夠維持上週的反彈。10 年期利率的持久突破將為美元提供支撐，並可能引發在擁擠的空頭頭寸中進行平倉，特別是針對歐元和瑞士法郎。</p>
</div><p>Failure of yields to follow through would revive the broader USD downtrend and support high‑beta FX. Data‑wise, U.S. inflation and labour‑market releases will primarily show how far they validate or challenge the recent repricing of the Fed path. The Bank of England is expected to cut by 25 bps, the Bank of Japan to hike by 25 bps, while the consensus is for the ECB to stay put at 2.15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果收益率未能繼續上漲，將恢復美元的整體下行趨勢，並支持高貝塔外匯。從數據來看，美國的通脹和勞動市場發佈將主要顯示它們在多大程度上驗證或挑戰美聯儲路徑的近期重新定價。預計英格蘭銀行將降息 25 個基點，日本銀行將加息 25 個基點，而市場普遍預期歐洲央行將維持在 2.15%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article's contents. We provide education, research, and broker reviews. Readers may use this data for informational and educational purposes only.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>免責聲明：</strong> 本文中表達的任何觀點不應被視為投資建議，僅代表作者個人觀點。新加坡外匯俱樂部對基於本文內容的任何財務決策不承擔責任。我們提供教育、研究和經紀人評論。讀者可以將這些數據用於信息和教育目的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免責聲明：本文來自一位未付外部貢獻者。它不代表 Benzinga 的報道，並且未經過內容或準確性編輯。</em></strong></p>
</div>

三種不同的央行行動將影響本週的外匯市場