<h3><strong>早期下行走勢測試關鍵支撐</strong></h3>
<p><strong>美元/日元在亞太時段下跌</strong>，短暫 <strong>跌破 4 小時圖上的 200 條移動平均線，最低至 155.29</strong>。這一下行探測與上週四的價格走勢相呼應，當時該貨幣對也跌破了同樣的移動平均線，但隨後 <strong>迅速反彈</strong>。在之前的走勢中，上行動能 <strong>在 4 小時圖上接近下滑的 100 條移動平均線時停滯不前</strong>，顯示出 <strong>買方在阻力位上有機會但未能繼續推進</strong>——正如賣方未能在支撐位下方延續下行。</p>
<h3><strong>收益率對下跌有所貢獻，但動能減弱</strong></h3>
<p>今天的早期疲軟受到 <strong>美國國債收益率回落的影響</strong>，<strong>10 年期收益率最初下跌接近 5 個基點</strong>，隨後大部分回升。目前 <strong>下跌約 1.4 個基點</strong>，減輕了對美元/日元的下行壓力。隨着收益率的穩定，該貨幣對在較低水平找到了買家。</p>
<h3><strong>擺動區域保持，價格回升至 200 條移動平均線之上</strong></h3>
<p>從技術角度來看，<strong>本次低點進入了 154.78 至 155.04 之間的熟悉擺動區域</strong>，買方之前對此表現出興趣。該支撐位保持，促使反彈，<strong>將美元/日元推回至 4 小時圖上的 200 條移動平均線之上（155.29）</strong>。目前價格 <strong>被困於 100 條和 200 條移動平均線之間</strong>，該貨幣對已回到 <strong>中性區域</strong>，反映出猶豫而非趨勢信念。</p>
<h3><strong>中性區間為下一次突破鋪平道路</strong></h3>
<p>隨着新交易日的臨近，<strong>方向性突破的機會仍然存在</strong>——要麼向上突破阻力，要麼向下突破支撐。影響平衡的可能是 <strong>宏觀催化劑而非純技術因素</strong>，考慮到過去幾個交易日的緊密區間和雙方的失敗突破。</p>
<h3><strong>繁重的數據日曆提高波動風險</strong></h3>
<p><strong>本週經濟日曆內容豐富</strong>，增加了決定性走勢的可能性。在美國，市場將消化 <strong>11 月就業報告（預期增加 50K）</strong>，以及 <strong>零售銷售和消費者物價指數</strong>，這些都可能 <strong>推動美元上漲或下跌</strong>，具體取決於結果。在日本，關注 <strong>週五的日本銀行政策決定</strong>，<strong>市場預期更傾向於 25 個基點的加息</strong>——這可能成為日元貨幣對的波動觸發因素。</p>
<h3><strong>觀看視頻分析</strong></h3>
<p>在上面的視頻中，<strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>，_《攻擊貨幣趨勢》的作者，講解了推動美元/日元的 <strong>實時技術設置</strong>。他強調了 <strong>風險的定義位置</strong>，解釋了 <strong>如何解讀重複的移動平均線失敗</strong>，並描繪了 <strong>最重要的下一個目標</strong>，等待該貨幣對的下一次推動。</p>

<p>美元/日元貨幣對經歷了一次短暫的跌破 200 日移動平均線的情況，類似於上週四的走勢，隨後反彈至中性區間。早期的疲軟受到美國國債收益率回落的影響。該貨幣對目前在 100 日和 200 日移動平均線之間，顯示出猶豫不決的狀態。即將發佈的美國經濟數據和日本銀行的政策決定可能引發波動。Greg Michalowski 提供了關於美元/日元技術形態和潛在目標的視頻分析</p>

<h3><strong>Early downside move tests key support</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>早期下行走勢測試關鍵支撐</strong></h3>
</div><p>The <strong>USDJPY moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session</strong>, briefly <strong>breaking below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 155.29</strong>. That downside probe echoed last Thursday’s price action, when the pair also slipped below the same moving average, only to <strong>quickly rotate higher</strong>. In that prior move, upside momentum <strong>stalled near the falling 100-bar moving average</strong> on the 4-hour chart, showing that <strong>buyers had their chance above resistance and couldn’t follow through</strong>—just as sellers failed to extend below support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元/日元在亞太時段下跌</strong>，短暫 <strong>跌破 4 小時圖上的 200 條移動平均線，最低至 155.29</strong>。這一下行探測與上週四的價格走勢相呼應，當時該貨幣對也跌破了同樣的移動平均線，但隨後 <strong>迅速反彈</strong>。在之前的走勢中，上行動能 <strong>在 4 小時圖上接近下滑的 100 條移動平均線時停滯不前</strong>，顯示出 <strong>買方在阻力位上有機會但未能繼續推進</strong>——正如賣方未能在支撐位下方延續下行。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Yields contribute to the dip, but momentum fades</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>收益率對下跌有所貢獻，但動能減弱</strong></h3>
</div><p>Today’s early weakness was helped by a <strong>pullback in U.S. Treasury yields</strong>, with the <strong>10-year yield initially down close to 5 basis points</strong> before retracing much of that move. It is now <strong>down around 1.4 basis points</strong>, reducing the downward pressure on USDJPY. As yields stabilized, the currency pair found buyers at lower levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的早期疲軟受到 <strong>美國國債收益率回落的影響</strong>，<strong>10 年期收益率最初下跌接近 5 個基點</strong>，隨後大部分回升。目前 <strong>下跌約 1.4 個基點</strong>，減輕了對美元/日元的下行壓力。隨着收益率的穩定，該貨幣對在較低水平找到了買家。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Swing area holds as price snaps back above the 200-bar MA</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>擺動區域保持，價格回升至 200 條移動平均線之上</strong></h3>
</div><p>From a technical standpoint, the <strong>session low pushed into a familiar swing area between 154.78 and 155.04</strong>, where buyers have previously shown interest. That support held, prompting a rebound that <strong>lifted USDJPY back above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (155.29)</strong>. With price now <strong>trapped between the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages</strong>, the pair has returned to <strong>neutral territory</strong>, reflecting indecision rather than trend conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術角度來看，<strong>本次低點進入了 154.78 至 155.04 之間的熟悉擺動區域</strong>，買方之前對此表現出興趣。該支撐位保持，促使反彈，<strong>將美元/日元推回至 4 小時圖上的 200 條移動平均線之上（155.29）</strong>。目前價格 <strong>被困於 100 條和 200 條移動平均線之間</strong>，該貨幣對已回到 <strong>中性區域</strong>，反映出猶豫而非趨勢信念。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Neutral range sets the stage for the next break</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>中性區間為下一次突破鋪平道路</strong></h3>
</div><p>With a new trading day approaching, <strong>the opportunity for a directional break remains open</strong>—either higher through resistance or lower through support. What tips the balance is likely to be <strong>macro catalysts rather than pure technicals</strong>, given the tight range and failed breaks on both sides over the past several sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着新交易日的臨近，<strong>方向性突破的機會仍然存在</strong>——要麼向上突破阻力，要麼向下突破支撐。影響平衡的可能是 <strong>宏觀催化劑而非純技術因素</strong>，考慮到過去幾個交易日的緊密區間和雙方的失敗突破。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Heavy data calendar raises volatility risk</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>繁重的數據日曆提高波動風險</strong></h3>
</div><p>The <strong>economic calendar is packed this week</strong>, increasing the odds of a decisive move. In the U.S., markets will digest the <strong>November jobs report (expected +50K)</strong>, along with <strong>retail sales and CPI</strong>, all of which could <strong>either lift the dollar or push it lower</strong> depending on the outcomes. In Japan, attention turns to the <strong>Bank of Japan policy decision on Friday</strong>, where <strong>expectations are leaning more toward a 25-basis-point hike</strong>—a potential volatility trigger for JPY pairs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>本週經濟日曆內容豐富</strong>，增加了決定性走勢的可能性。在美國，市場將消化 <strong>11 月就業報告（預期增加 50K）</strong>，以及 <strong>零售銷售和消費者物價指數</strong>，這些都可能 <strong>推動美元上漲或下跌</strong>，具體取決於結果。在日本，關注 <strong>週五的日本銀行政策決定</strong>，<strong>市場預期更傾向於 25 個基點的加息</strong>——這可能成為日元貨幣對的波動觸發因素。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Watch the video analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>觀看視頻分析</strong></h3>
</div><p>In the video above, <strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>, author of <em>Attacking Currency Trends</em>, walks through the <strong>real-time technical setup</strong> driving USDJPY. He highlights <strong>where risk is defined</strong>, explains <strong>how to interpret the repeated moving-average failures</strong>, and maps out <strong>the next targets that matter most</strong> as the pair waits for its next shove.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上面的視頻中，<strong>Greg Michalowski</strong>，_《攻擊貨幣趨勢》的作者，講解了推動美元/日元的 <strong>實時技術設置</strong>。他強調了 <strong>風險的定義位置</strong>，解釋了 <strong>如何解讀重複的移動平均線失敗</strong>，並描繪了 <strong>最重要的下一個目標</strong>，等待該貨幣對的下一次推動。</p>
</div>

美元兑日元技術展望：價格下滑後反彈回到中性區間