<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾概述了中央銀行在上週連續第三次降息後對勞動力市場的看法，新的就業報告將於週二發佈。</p>
<p>鮑威爾在美聯儲政策制定者投票決定將基準聯邦基金利率下調 25 個基點至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的新聞發佈會上發言，此次降息是在勞動力市場疲軟跡象和美聯儲雙重任務中促進最大就業的部分面臨新風險的背景下進行的。</p>
<p>鮑威爾指出，美國勞工統計局（BLS）最近發佈的九月份就業報告顯示，失業率 “持續上升，達到 4.4%，而且年初的就業增長顯著放緩。”</p>
<p>鮑威爾表示：“放緩的很大一部分可能反映了由於移民減少和勞動力參與率下降，勞動力增長的下降，儘管勞動力需求顯然也有所減弱。在這個不太活躍且稍顯疲軟的勞動力市場中，近期就業的下行風險似乎有所上升。”</p>
<p><strong>美聯儲連續第三次降息，但 “點陣圖” 預計 2026 年僅降息一次</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，勞動力市場沒有出現急劇下滑的跡象。(Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
<p>美聯儲的最新決定伴隨着經濟預測摘要，通常稱為 “點陣圖”，顯示失業率將在 2025 年底上升至 4.5%，然後在明年降至 4.4%。</p>
<p>鮑威爾表示，美聯儲不預期勞動力市場會出現更急劇的下滑，目前的利率政策接近中性，這應該支持勞動力市場，以防止更顯著的惡化。</p>
<p>鮑威爾説：“現在已經降息 75 個基點，並且政策處於廣泛的中性合理估計範圍內，這將使勞動力市場能夠穩定，或者僅僅上升 1 或 2 個十分點。但我們不會看到任何急劇的下滑，而我們也沒有看到任何證據表明會出現這種情況。”</p>
<p><strong>鮑威爾表示，降息對掙扎中的住房行業 “影響不大”</strong></p>
<p>鮑威爾指出，自四月以來，工資增長已放緩至每月約 40,000 個，政策制定者認為這些月度就業數據被高估了約 60,000 個——這意味着在此期間，月度就業數據的平均值將為-20,000。</p>
<p>鮑威爾補充道：“我認為這並不特別有爭議。實時估計就業增長非常困難，他們並沒有統計所有人，他們有一個調查，並且存在某種系統性的高估。我們預期會這樣，他們每年修正兩次。所以上次修正時，我們認為修正會是八十或九十萬……而這正是發生的情況。我們認為這種情況仍在持續。”</p>
<p>兩位政策制定者對美聯儲的降息決定表示異議，主張在經濟不確定性，包括通脹前景的情況下保持利率不變。</p>
<p><strong>特朗普表示，沃什和哈塞特是美聯儲主席人選的主要競爭者</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>芝加哥聯儲主席奧斯坦·古爾斯比表示，在沒有勞動力市場惡化跡象的情況下，進一步降息似乎不明智，因為通脹仍然高企。(Brendan McDermid/Reuters)</p>
<p>芝加哥聯儲主席奧斯坦·古爾斯比在一份聲明中表示，他 “認為更謹慎的做法是等待更多信息。”</p>
<p>古爾斯比表示：“如果勞動力市場迅速惡化，那將是不同的計算。但我們擁有的大多數數據表明經濟增長穩定，勞動力市場僅適度降温，且與以往擴張期的指標相當。可以被描述為 ‘低招聘/低解僱’ 的環境更符合企業應對持續不確定性的情況，而不是傳統的商業週期放緩。”</p>
<p>堪薩斯城聯儲主席傑弗裏·施密德也表示異議，支持保持利率穩定，他寫道：“通脹仍然過高，經濟顯示出持續的動力，儘管勞動力市場降温，但仍然基本保持平衡。”</p>
<p>BLS 計劃於週二發佈 11 月份的就業報告，LSEG 經濟學家預計將顯示該月新增 40,000 個就業崗位。</p>
<p><strong>點擊這裏獲取福克斯商業新聞移動版</strong></p>
<p>BLS 表示，由於政府關門影響了其數據收集活動，因此不會發布 10 月份的就業報告，並且在 11 月中旬關門結束後，追溯收集這些數據並不實際。一些可用的 10 月份數據將包含在 11 月份的報告中。</p>

<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾談到了勞動力市場的放緩，指出失業率上升至 4.4%，就業增長顯著放緩。儘管出現這些跡象，鮑威爾拒絕了對勞動力市場急劇下滑的擔憂，稱當前的利率政策是支持性的。美聯儲將利率下調 25 個基點，預測到 2025 年失業率將達到 4.5%。兩位政策制定者表示反對，傾向於在經濟不確定性中維持利率不變。美國勞工統計局將發佈 11 月份的就業報告，預計新增就業崗位為 40,000 個</p>

<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell outlined how the central bank is viewing the labor market after it cut interest rates last week for the third straight time, with a fresh jobs report due out on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾概述了中央銀行在上週連續第三次降息後對勞動力市場的看法，新的就業報告將於週二發佈。</p>
</div><p>Powell spoke at a press conference after Federal Reserve policymakers voted to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, amid signs of a weakening labor market and emerging risks to the half of the Fed's dual mandate that focuses on promoting maximum employment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾在美聯儲政策制定者投票決定將基準聯邦基金利率下調 25 個基點至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的新聞發佈會上發言，此次降息是在勞動力市場疲軟跡象和美聯儲雙重任務中促進最大就業的部分面臨新風險的背景下進行的。</p>
</div><p>Powell noted that the most recent jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was released for September and showed that the unemployment rate &#34;continued to edge up, reaching 4.4%, and that job gains had slowed significantly earlier in the year.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾指出，美國勞工統計局（BLS）最近發佈的九月份就業報告顯示，失業率 “持續上升，達到 4.4%，而且年初的就業增長顯著放緩。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months,&#34; Powell said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾表示：“放緩的很大一部分可能反映了由於移民減少和勞動力參與率下降，勞動力增長的下降，儘管勞動力需求顯然也有所減弱。在這個不太活躍且稍顯疲軟的勞動力市場中，近期就業的下行風險似乎有所上升。”</p>
</div><p><strong>FED DELIVERS THIRD STRAIGHT RATE CUT BUT 'DOT PLOT' PROJECTS JUST ONE CUT IN 2026</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美聯儲連續第三次降息，但 “點陣圖” 預計 2026 年僅降息一次</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/10/931/523/jerome-powell-fomc-oct.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there aren't signs of a sharp downturn in the labor market. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示，勞動力市場沒有出現急劇下滑的跡象。(Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)</p>
</div><p>The Fed's latest decision was accompanied by a summary of economic projections, commonly known as the &#34;dot plot,&#34; showing the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% at the end of 2025 before edging down from there to 4.4% next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲的最新決定伴隨着經濟預測摘要，通常稱為 “點陣圖”，顯示失業率將在 2025 年底上升至 4.5%，然後在明年降至 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>Powell said that the Fed doesn't anticipate a sharper downturn in the labor market and the current interest rate policy is close to neutral, which should support the labor market to prevent a more significant deterioration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾表示，美聯儲不預期勞動力市場會出現更急劇的下滑，目前的利率政策接近中性，這應該支持勞動力市場，以防止更顯著的惡化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The idea is that, now with having cut 75 basis points more now, and having policy in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral, that will be a place which will enable the labor market to stabilize or to only tick up 1 or 2 more tenths. But we won't see any kind of a sharper downturn, which we haven't seen any evidence of at all,&#34; the chairman said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾説：“現在已經降息 75 個基點，並且政策處於廣泛的中性合理估計範圍內，這將使勞動力市場能夠穩定，或者僅僅上升 1 或 2 個十分點。但我們不會看到任何急劇的下滑，而我們也沒有看到任何證據表明會出現這種情況。”</p>
</div><p><strong>POWELL SAYS RATE CUTS WON'T MAKE 'MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE' FOR STRUGGLING HOUSING SECTOR</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>鮑威爾表示，降息對掙扎中的住房行業 “影響不大”</strong></p>
</div><p>Powell noted that payroll growth has slowed to an average of about 40,000 per month since April and that policymakers see an overstatement of about 60,000 in those monthly jobs numbers – meaning that monthly jobs figures would average -20,000 over that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾指出，自四月以來，工資增長已放緩至每月約 40,000 個，政策制定者認為這些月度就業數據被高估了約 60,000 個——這意味着在此期間，月度就業數據的平均值將為-20,000。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't think this is particularly controversial. It's very difficult to estimate job growth in real time, they don't count everybody, they have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount. We expect it, and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would be eight or nine hundred thousand… and that was exactly what happened. We think that has persisted,&#34; Powell added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾補充道：“我認為這並不特別有爭議。實時估計就業增長非常困難，他們並沒有統計所有人，他們有一個調查，並且存在某種系統性的高估。我們預期會這樣，他們每年修正兩次。所以上次修正時，我們認為修正會是八十或九十萬……而這正是發生的情況。我們認為這種情況仍在持續。”</p>
</div><p>Two policymakers dissented from the Fed's rate cut decision in favor of leaving interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty over the economy, including the outlook for inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩位政策制定者對美聯儲的降息決定表示異議，主張在經濟不確定性，包括通脹前景的情況下保持利率不變。</p>
</div><p><strong>TRUMP SAYS WARSH, HASSETT ARE LEADING CONTENDERS FOR FED CHAIR PICK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特朗普表示，沃什和哈塞特是美聯儲主席人選的主要競爭者</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2025/09/931/523/federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-01.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that without signs of the labor market deteriorating, further rate cuts didn't seem prudent with inflation elevated. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芝加哥聯儲主席奧斯坦·古爾斯比表示，在沒有勞動力市場惡化跡象的情況下，進一步降息似乎不明智，因為通脹仍然高企。(Brendan McDermid/Reuters)</p>
</div><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a statement that he &#34;felt the more prudent course would have been to wait for more information.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芝加哥聯儲主席奧斯坦·古爾斯比在一份聲明中表示，他 “認為更謹慎的做法是等待更多信息。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;If the labor market were deteriorating rapidly, it would be a different calculation. But most of the data we have show stable economic growth with a labor market only moderately cooling and with measures comparable to those in previous expansions,&#34; Goolsbee said. &#34;An environment that can be characterized as 'low hiring/low-firing' is more consistent with businesses dealing with continued uncertainty than it is with a conventional business cycle slowdown.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>古爾斯比表示：“如果勞動力市場迅速惡化，那將是不同的計算。但我們擁有的大多數數據表明經濟增長穩定，勞動力市場僅適度降温，且與以往擴張期的指標相當。可以被描述為 ‘低招聘/低解僱’ 的環境更符合企業應對持續不確定性的情況，而不是傳統的商業週期放緩。”</p>
</div><p>Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also dissented in favor of holding rates steady, writing that &#34;inflation remains too high, the economy shows continued momentum, and the labor market – though cooling – remains largely in balance.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>堪薩斯城聯儲主席傑弗裏·施密德也表示異議，支持保持利率穩定，他寫道：“通脹仍然過高，經濟顯示出持續的動力，儘管勞動力市場降温，但仍然基本保持平衡。”</p>
</div><p>The BLS is scheduled to release the November jobs report on Tuesday, which LSEG economists project will show 40,000 jobs were added for the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BLS 計劃於週二發佈 11 月份的就業報告，LSEG 經濟學家預計將顯示該月新增 40,000 個就業崗位。</p>
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</div><p>BLS has said that it won't release a jobs report for the month of October, as its data collection activities were adversely affected by the government shutdown, and it wasn't practical to retroactively gather that data once the shutdown ended in mid-November. Some October data that is available will be included in the November report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BLS 表示，由於政府關門影響了其數據收集活動，因此不會發布 10 月份的就業報告，並且在 11 月中旬關門結束後，追溯收集這些數據並不實際。一些可用的 10 月份數據將包含在 11 月份的報告中。</p>
</div>

鮑威爾承認勞動力市場有所放緩，但否認對其急劇下滑的擔憂