<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png"/></p>
<p>原油價格延續之前的跌勢，降至兩個月來的低點，市場對供應過剩和需求增長放緩的擔憂持續施壓。布倫特原油小幅下跌，當前在關鍵支撐位 60 美元附近獲得支撐。與此同時，WTI 原油價格降至自 10 月 21 日以來的最低水平，報 56.41 美元。隨着備受期待的美國非農就業數據和消費者物價指數（CPI）數據的發佈，美元的高波動性預計將蔓延至以美元計價的原油市場。</p>
<h2>原油價格能降到多低？</h2>
<p>由於供應過剩的擔憂和疲軟的需求前景，原油價格仍然面臨賣壓，這種市場情緒預計將在未來一年繼續主導市場。實際上，可能的反彈預計將是修正性質，而不是趨勢反轉的開始。</p>
<p>儘管如此，某些因素使得這種看跌的前景變得複雜。首先，中國一直在大量囤積石油庫存；這一趨勢預計將在 2026 年繼續。根據花旗集團的預測，庫存的囤積速度預計將從每日報價 80 萬桶增加到 90 萬桶。</p>
<p>雖然這一速度將有助於緩解全球石油市場面臨的供應過剩，但這並不一定意味着需求增長的提升。事實上，作為主要進口國和原油消費國，需求增長預計將在 2026 年中期之前保持疲軟，約為每日報價 15 萬桶。</p>
<p>閲讀更多：隨着需求疲軟，中國經濟放緩在 11 月加劇</p>
<p>此外，國際能源署（IEA）改善了對 2026 年的供需前景。在其最新的月度報告中，該機構現在預計 2026 年供應將超過需求 389 萬桶/日，而之前的預測為 409 萬桶/日。同時，它改善了對需求增長的前景，指出關税問題減輕和全球經濟前景更加光明。</p>
<p>隨着原油市場對這些驅動因素進行思考，他們也密切關注定於週二和週四發佈的美國非農就業數據和 CPI 數據。隨着投資者尋找美聯儲下一步行動的線索，國債收益率和美元的高度波動性預計將蔓延至以美元計價的原油。</p>
<h2>布倫特原油價格技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="579" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>原油價格圖表 | 來源：TradingView</p>
<p>全球油價基準布倫特原油在週一小幅下跌，延續了上週的跌勢。當前交易價格為每桶 60.44 美元，為 10 月底以來的最低水平。這使其接近超賣區域，RSI 為 36。此外，它處於自 8 月初以來大致形成的看跌通道的邊緣。</p>
<p>根據這些技術指標，短期內可能會出現修正。這將使布倫特原油價格從 60 美元的關鍵支撐區反彈回 61 美元至 64 美元之間的狹窄區間。</p>
<p>然而，即使預計會反彈，我預計該資產在短期內仍將保持在 64.50 美元以下。實際上，若突破該水平將使這一論點失效。相反，若跌破所強調的看跌通道，將給賣方提供重新測試 5 月份低點的機會。</p>
<p>布倫特原油價格分析：在崩盤中關注的水平首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>原油價格因對供應過剩和需求增長放緩的擔憂而跌至兩個月低點。布倫特原油目前價格為 60 美元，而 WTI 原油為 56.41 美元。市場受到美國非農就業人數和消費者物價指數數據的影響，預計將出現高波動性。中國的庫存積累以及國際能源署對 2026 年供應/需求前景的改善是關鍵因素。技術分析顯示布倫特原油可能會出現短期修正，但預計將保持在 64.50 美元以下</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250902_081525_dljuP.png"/></p>
<p>Crude oil price extended previous losses to a two-month low as concerns over a supply glut and slowing demand growth continue to weigh on the market. Brent oil edged lower to find support at the crucial support level of $60 as at the time of writing. At the same time, WTI oil price declined to its lowest level since 21st October at $56.41. With the highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, the high volatility in the US dollar is set to spread to the dollar-priced crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油價格延續之前的跌勢，降至兩個月來的低點，市場對供應過剩和需求增長放緩的擔憂持續施壓。布倫特原油小幅下跌，當前在關鍵支撐位 60 美元附近獲得支撐。與此同時，WTI 原油價格降至自 10 月 21 日以來的最低水平，報 56.41 美元。隨着備受期待的美國非農就業數據和消費者物價指數（CPI）數據的發佈，美元的高波動性預計將蔓延至以美元計價的原油市場。</p>
</div><h2>How low can crude oil prices reach?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油價格能降到多低？</h2>
</div><p>Crude oil prices remain under selling pressure as oversupply concerns and a weak demand outlook are set to continue defining the market sentiment into the coming year. Indeed, the possible rebound is expected to be corrective in nature as opposed to the onset of a trend reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於供應過剩的擔憂和疲軟的需求前景，原油價格仍然面臨賣壓，這種市場情緒預計將在未來一年繼續主導市場。實際上，可能的反彈預計將是修正性質，而不是趨勢反轉的開始。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, certain elements are clouding this bearish outlook. To start with, China has been hoarding robust oil stockpiles; a trend expected to continue in 2026. According to Citigroup, the stockpiling is set to increase in pace from an average of 800,000 bpd to 900,000 next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，某些因素使得這種看跌的前景變得複雜。首先，中國一直在大量囤積石油庫存；這一趨勢預計將在 2026 年繼續。根據花旗集團的預測，庫存的囤積速度預計將從每日報價 80 萬桶增加到 90 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>While that rate will help cushion the global oil market from the forecasted supply glut, it does not necessarily equate to a boost in demand growth. In fact, demand growth in the leading importer and consumer of crude oil is expected to remain sluggish till mid-2026 at 150,000 bpd.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這一速度將有助於緩解全球石油市場面臨的供應過剩，但這並不一定意味着需求增長的提升。事實上，作為主要進口國和原油消費國，需求增長預計將在 2026 年中期之前保持疲軟，約為每日報價 15 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>Read more: China’s economic slowdown deepens in November as weak demand weigh on growth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多：隨着需求疲軟，中國經濟放緩在 11 月加劇</p>
</div><p>Besides, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has improved its supply/demand outlook for 2026. In its latest monthly report, the agency now expects supply to surpass demand by 3.89 million bpd in 2026 compared to its previous forecast of 4.09 million bpd. At the same time, it has improved its demand growth outlook, citing subdued tariff woes and a brighter global economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，國際能源署（IEA）改善了對 2026 年的供需前景。在其最新的月度報告中，該機構現在預計 2026 年供應將超過需求 389 萬桶/日，而之前的預測為 409 萬桶/日。同時，它改善了對需求增長的前景，指出關税問題減輕和全球經濟前景更加光明。</p>
</div><p>As the crude oil market ponders on these drivers, they are also keen on the US nonfarm payrolls and CPI data slated for release on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. As investors look for cues on the Fed’s next move, heightened volatility in the Treasury yields and the US dollar is set to spread to the dollar-priced crude oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着原油市場對這些驅動因素進行思考，他們也密切關注定於週二和週四發佈的美國非農就業數據和 CPI 數據。隨着投資者尋找美聯儲下一步行動的線索，國債收益率和美元的高度波動性預計將蔓延至以美元計價的原油。</p>
</div><h2>Brent crude oil price technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>布倫特原油價格技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Crude-oil-price-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>Crude oll price chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油價格圖表 | 來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The benchmark for global oil prices, Brent, edged lower on Monday; extending losses recorded in the past week. At the time of writing, it was trading at $60.44 a barrel; a level last seen in late October. This has pushed it closer to the oversold territory at an RSI of 36. Besides, it is at the border of the bearish channel that has largely shaped its movements since early August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球油價基準布倫特原油在週一小幅下跌，延續了上週的跌勢。當前交易價格為每桶 60.44 美元，為 10 月底以來的最低水平。這使其接近超賣區域，RSI 為 36。此外，它處於自 8 月初以來大致形成的看跌通道的邊緣。</p>
</div><p>Based on these technical indicators, a correction is likely in the immediate term. This would have the Brent crude oil price bounce off the crucial support zone of $60 and back to the tight range of between $61 and $64.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據這些技術指標，短期內可能會出現修正。這將使布倫特原油價格從 60 美元的關鍵支撐區反彈回 61 美元至 64 美元之間的狹窄區間。</p>
</div><p>However, even with the expected rebound, I expect the asset to remain below $64.50 in the short term. Indeed, a move above that level will invalidate this thesis. On the flip side, a move below the highlighted bearish channel will give the sellers a chance to retest May’s lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使預計會反彈，我預計該資產在短期內仍將保持在 64.50 美元以下。實際上，若突破該水平將使這一論點失效。相反，若跌破所強調的看跌通道，將給賣方提供重新測試 5 月份低點的機會。</p>
</div><p>The post Brent crude oil price analysis: Levels to eye amid the crash appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油價格分析：在崩盤中關注的水平首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

布倫特原油價格分析：在暴跌中需要關注的水平