Image Source: 5E Advanced Materials

圖片來源：5E Advanced Materials

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The Trump administration has prioritized securing the U.S. critical mineral supply chain through executive orders, federal funding, and international partnerships to reduce reliance on foreign sources, particularly China. Key actions include expanding the official list of critical minerals to 60 items, which now includes copper and uranium, and accelerating domestic mining and processing permits on federal lands. The DOE is also investing nearly $1 billion in domestic production projects and forming a "minerals club" with allies to diversify the global supply chain. Other government funding is available through EXIM, DOW/DOD, and DFC.

特朗普政府優先通過行政命令、聯邦資金和國際合作來確保美國關鍵礦產供應鏈，以減少對外國來源，特別是中國的依賴。關鍵行動包括將關鍵礦物的官方名單擴展到 60 種，其中現在包括銅和鈾，並加快在聯邦土地上的國內採礦和加工許可證的審批。能源部還在國內生產項目上投資近 10 億美元，並與盟友組建 “礦物俱樂部”，以多樣化全球供應鏈。其他政府資金可通過 EXIM、DOW/DOD 和 DFC 獲得。

As critical minerals and domestic supply chains come into focus, investors are increasingly interested in U.S.-based mining companies. One particularly interesting company is 5E Advanced Materials, a rare U.S.-based producer of boron that is looking to build out a full-scale in-situ leaching (ISL) operation for significant domestic boron production. As the company proves out the reliability and consistency of its production, secures offtake agreements with customers, and finances its ISL mine, I believe the stock could re-rate significantly higher. Boron should also see a favorable environment for demand in the next few years.

隨着關鍵礦物和國內供應鏈的關注，投資者對美國本土的採礦公司越來越感興趣。其中一家特別有趣的公司是 5E Advanced Materials，這是一家美國稀有的硼生產商，正在尋求建立一個全規模的原位浸出（ISL）操作，以實現顯著的國內硼生產。隨着公司證明其生產的可靠性和一致性，確保與客户的採購協議，併為其 ISL 礦山融資，我相信該股票可能會大幅重新定價。未來幾年，硼的需求環境也將是有利的。

The Boron Market

硼市場

What is boron and why do we care about it? Boron is a non-metallic element typically used in various advanced materials to increase performance, enhance strength and resist heat, increase conductivity, and increase chemical stability. There are hundreds of diverse applications for boron, and its use is considered irreplaceable. Common applications of boron include glass, insulation, fertilizer, semiconductors, advanced alloys (iron/steel, copper, aluminum), stealth technology, sports equipment, nuclear reactors (control rods and primary coolant neutron poison) and waste storage, lithium batteries, heat shields, neodymium magnets (NdFeB), fertilizer (nonsubstitutable micronutrient), and medicines. As such, the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) Mineral Resources Program (United States Department of the Interior) recently added Boron to the 2025 list of minerals critical to national security.

硼是什麼，為什麼我們關心它？硼是一種非金屬元素，通常用於各種先進材料中，以提高性能、增強強度和耐熱性、增加導電性以及提高化學穩定性。硼有數百種不同的應用，其使用被認為是不可替代的。硼的常見應用包括玻璃、絕緣材料、肥料、半導體、先進合金（鐵/鋼、銅、鋁）、隱形技術、運動器材、核反應堆（控制棒和主要冷卻劑中子毒物）和廢物儲存、鋰電池、熱屏障、釹磁鐵（NdFeB）、肥料（不可替代的微量元素）和藥物。因此，美國地質調查局（USGS）礦產資源項目（美國內政部）最近將硼添加到 2025 年對國家安全至關重要的礦物名單中。

While consumption estimates vary and change over time, below is a pie chart that shows several key uses of boron. Glass and ceramics production demand a large portion of boron. Boron is used to make borosilicate glass, which is more resistant to thermal shock and chemical corrosion. This makes it ideal for cookware, laboratory equipment, and industrial applications like reinforcement fiberglass, electronic displays, and optical lenses. Semiconductor manufacturing is the dominant (80%) consumer of high-purity boron, where boric acid is used to make boron trichloride, which is used for etching and chemical vapor deposition for doping.

雖然消費估計因時間而異，但以下是一個餅圖，顯示了硼的幾個關鍵用途。玻璃和陶瓷生產對硼的需求佔據了很大一部分。硼用於製造耐熱衝擊和化學腐蝕的硼硅酸鹽玻璃。這使其非常適合用於炊具、實驗室設備以及工業應用，如增強玻璃纖維、電子顯示器和光學鏡頭。半導體制造是高純度硼的主要（80%）消費者，其中硼酸用於製造三氯化硼，後者用於刻蝕和化學氣相沉積以進行摻雜。

Boron Consumption Pie Chart

硼消費餅圖

Boron production currently operates in a near-oligopoly—two entities control 85% of boron supply: Turkey's Eti Maden and Rio Tinto's (OTCMKTS: RTNTF) U.S. Borax. 60% of the total boron supply is produced by Eti Maden, which is a Turkish government entity. This means that the United States may be reliant on Turkey if it wants to expand onshore chip manufacturing or produce its own boron carbide. In fact, the Department of Defense is actively investing in domestic boron-carbide capacity, as China currently supplies 80% of boron carbide globally. For investors, that policy backdrop usually translates into faster permits, concessional funding, and strategic offtakes for credible new entrants such as 5E.

目前，硼的生產幾乎處於寡頭壟斷狀態——兩個實體控制着 85% 的硼供應：土耳其的 Eti Maden 和 Rio Tinto（OTCMKTS: RTNTF）的美國硼。Eti Maden 生產了 60% 的總硼供應，作為一個土耳其政府實體。這意味着如果美國想要擴大本土芯片製造或生產自己的碳化硼，可能會依賴土耳其。事實上，國防部正在積極投資於國內碳化硼的能力，因為中國目前佔全球碳化硼供應的 80%。對於投資者來説，這種政策背景通常意味着更快的許可證審批、優惠資金和對 5E 等可信新進入者的戰略採購。

On the other hand, the United States has Rio Tinto’s (previously U.S. Borax) operations in California, but the future of U.S. Borax is uncertain. Rio Tinto’s (NYSE: RIO) U.S. Borax (RTB Boron) division suffered a reserve downgrade in 2018, and it is estimated that their costs have increased about 60% since 2017. Additionally, their minerals division (Borates and Iron & Titanium businesses) are undergoing a strategic review, and analysts expect the borates and titanium businesses to be divested. Rio’s California borate mine is the largest production site in the world, and 5E could take up this demand, presumably with better costs.

另一方面，美國在加利福尼亞州擁有 Rio Tinto（之前是美國硼）的運營，但美國硼的未來尚不確定。Rio Tinto（NYSE: RIO）的美國硼（RTB Boron）部門在 2018 年遭遇儲量下調，估計自 2017 年以來其成本已增加約 60%。此外，他們的礦物部門（硼酸鹽和鐵及鈦業務）正在進行戰略審查，分析師預計硼酸鹽和鈦業務將被剝離。Rio 在加利福尼亞的硼礦是世界上最大的生產基地，5E 可能會滿足這一需求，假設其成本更具競爭力。

In contrast to Rio Tinto’s U.S. Borax uncertainty, Turkey’s Eti Maden expanded output meaningfully in 2024 (a new Bigadiç facility went live and Turkish borate production was up ~36% YoY through August), underscoring its centrality to the market and production capacity potential.

與 Rio Tinto 的美國硼的不確定性相比，土耳其的 Eti Maden 在 2024 年顯著擴大了產量（新的 Bigadiç設施投入使用，土耳其的硼酸鹽生產在 8 月同比增長約 36%），突顯了其在市場和生產能力潛力中的核心地位。

From 5E Advanced Materials Website

來自 5E Advanced Materials 網站

In conclusion, boron supply is critical for many decarbonization and productivity themes, including insulation and high-performance glass, permanent magnets, semiconductors, agriculture, and nuclear. Supply is also concentrated and slow to add, leading to price inelasticity. This combination arguably sets the stage for a favorable multi-year setup for boron.

總之，硼供應對許多脱碳和生產力主題至關重要，包括絕緣材料和高性能玻璃、永磁體、半導體、農業和核能。供應也高度集中，增加緩慢，導致價格缺乏彈性。這種組合無疑為硼的多年度有利佈局奠定了基礎。

5E Advanced Materials Summary

5E Advanced Materials 概述

5E Advanced Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: FEAM; ASX: 5EA) is a vertically integrated development-stage company dedicated to reshoring the U.S. boron supply chain through high-purity boric acid production. Its Fort Cady Borate Project in Southern California has begun initial production at pilot scale to demonstrate the output of its in-situ leaching operation for customers, which should help the company ink favorable offtake agreements and obtain financing for its first phase of full-scale operations.

5E Advanced Materials, Inc.（納斯達克：FEAM；ASX：5EA）是一家垂直整合的開發階段公司，致力於通過高純度硼酸的生產來重塑美國硼供應鏈。其位於南加州的 Fort Cady 硼項目已開始初步生產，以展示其原位浸出操作的產出，這將有助於公司簽署有利的採購協議併為其第一階段的全規模運營獲得融資。

5E had a difficult history as a public company. Originating from a 2017 Australian IPO, 5E listed on Nasdaq in March 2022, but faced turbulence, moving through three prior CEOs during current CEO Paul Weibel's CFO tenure, including an ex-Honeywell (Nasdaq: HON) executive who was ousted shortly after signing an August 2022 $60 million convertible note that destroyed shareholder value, amid EPA permit delays. Certain major shareholders stabilized the firm by acquiring debt in a January 2024 restructuring, slashing conversion prices from $16.90/share to $1.50/share and finally launching pilot mining (in-situ leaching) operations. Full note equitization by Christmas of 2024 gave the lenders 85% ownership, which was subsequently diluted to 75% via a May 2025 placement as well as a summer equity raise catalyzed by the company’s pre-feasibility study (PFS) publication. Since Weibel took over the CEO role in June 2024, a refreshed board including Curtis L. Hebert, and new hires including executives with borates experience, have brought the company another chance and a fresh start, albeit with a new investor base.

5E 作為一家上市公司經歷了艱難的歷史。起源於 2017 年的澳大利亞首次公開募股，5E 於 2022 年 3 月在納斯達克上市，但面臨動盪，在現任首席執行官 Paul Weibel 擔任首席財務官期間經歷了三位前首席執行官的更替，其中包括一位前霍尼韋爾（Nasdaq: HON）高管，他在簽署 2022 年 8 月的 6000 萬美元可轉換票據後不久被解僱，該票據在環保局許可證延遲的情況下摧毀了股東價值。某些主要股東通過在 2024 年 1 月的重組中收購債務來穩定公司，將轉換價格從每股 16.90 美元削減至每股 1.50 美元，並最終啓動了試點採礦（原位浸出）操作。到 2024 年聖誕節前，全部票據股權化使貸方擁有 85% 的股份，隨後通過 2025 年 5 月的配售以及由公司預可行性研究（PFS）發佈催化的夏季股權融資稀釋至 75%。自 2024 年 6 月 Weibel 接任首席執行官以來，包含 Curtis L. Hebert 在內的新董事會和包括具有硼酸鹽經驗的高管在內的新員工為公司帶來了另一個機會和新的開始，儘管投資者基礎發生了變化。

All the prior hardships aside, 5E has an American boron project nearing full-scale production that, if de-risked, can command a premium as it is a sovereign critical minerals producer and is aiming to supply high-purity boric acid. On top of this, boron suppliers appear to be set up for industry tailwinds, and 5E may have the only scalable domestic source of boron.

儘管經歷了之前的種種困難，5E 擁有一個接近全面生產的美國硼項目，如果風險得到控制，可以獲得溢價，因為它是一個主權關鍵礦物生產商，旨在供應高純度的硼酸。此外，硼供應商似乎正處於行業順風之中，而 5E 可能是唯一一個可擴展的國內硼源。

5E Boron Production Investment Snapshot

5E 硼生產投資快照

New Process Operations

新工藝操作

The company’s value is expected to be bolstered by improved process technologies, including chilled crystallization instead of evaporative crystallization of boric acid. The company’s CEO, Paul Weibel, explained these improvements on the Q4 2024 earnings call.

公司的價值預計將通過改進的工藝技術得到提升，包括採用冷卻結晶而非蒸發結晶法來生產硼酸。公司首席執行官 Paul Weibel 在 2024 年第四季度的財報電話會議上解釋了這些改進。

“Two meaningful changes we have incorporated into our commercial design include a change to the method of crystallization and the temperature of our mine water injection solution. Since commencing mining operations in January 2024, we now have a higher degree of confidence in the resource and our achievable head grade. Further, we believe we can increase our head grade to higher levels by increasing the temperature of our mining solution. This increase in our solution temperatures will also decrease residence time, leading to a more efficient process. Essentially, our data has determined that it is less expensive and more efficient to heat the solution compared to blowing off and evaporating water. This has provided us the opportunity to modify our crystallization method from evaporative to chilled crystallization. Chilled crystallization has multiple benefits that are worth highlighting. First, the amount of energy required will be much less. And initial energy balance estimates a 60% reduction in natural gas consumption relative to evaporative crystallization, which will drive a lower structural OpEx. Further, this provides us with the opportunity to use less Hastelloy steel in our crystallizer design, which will in turn reduce the overall capital cost by utilizing less expensive materials of construction. Another area of optimization is our mine plan, where we believe we can reduce the overall levels of sustaining CapEx up to a factor of 10 by implementing horizontal wells and sidetracks. Our horizontal well program has been externally vetted and to increase confidence levels, we plan to test horizontal wells in the upcoming fiscal year. Additionally, we continue to critically examine our potential byproduct credits. We have confirmed lithium chloride exists in our solution today, and we are monitoring the increases in concentrations of lithium and calcium to determine the optimal recovery technology. Finally, we continue to investigate calcium chloride and assess this as a byproduct relative to gypsum, and we are actively looking to explore partnerships with existing producers and technology providers.”

“我們在商業設計中引入的兩個重要變化包括結晶方法的改變和礦水注入溶液的温度。自 2024 年 1 月開始採礦以來，我們對資源和可實現的頭礦品位有了更高的信心。此外，我們相信通過提高礦水溶液的温度，可以將頭礦品位提高到更高的水平。溶液温度的提高也將減少停留時間，從而提高工藝效率。基本上，我們的數據表明，加熱溶液的成本更低且效率更高，而不是通過蒸發水來提高濃度。這使我們有機會將結晶方法從蒸發結晶改為冷卻結晶。冷卻結晶有多個值得強調的好處。首先，所需的能量將大大減少。初步的能量平衡估計，相較於蒸發結晶，天然氣消耗將減少 60%，這將降低結構性運營支出。此外，這使我們能夠在結晶器設計中使用更少的哈氏合金鋼，從而通過使用更便宜的建築材料降低整體資本成本。另一個優化領域是我們的礦山計劃，我們相信通過實施水平井和側鑽，可以將整體維持資本支出降低至 10 倍。我們的水平井計劃已通過外部評估，為了提高信心，我們計劃在即將到來的財政年度測試水平井。此外，我們繼續認真審查潛在的副產品信用。我們已確認鋰氯化物今天存在於我們的溶液中，並且我們正在監測鋰和鈣濃度的增加，以確定最佳的回收技術。最後，我們繼續調查氯化鈣，並評估其作為副產品相對於石膏的價值，同時積極尋求與現有生產商和技術提供商的合作。”

Instead of heating the produced solution to boil off water and increase boric acid concentration before crystallization, the company can produce a hot solution that is high enough in boric acid (BA) concentration to crystallize via chilling (where BA is precipitated as a solid when BA solubility decreases with decreasing temperature). These production process improvements are low risk in my opinion (as opposed to the moderate-risk production-scale leaching), but are assumed in the company’s PFS. Byproduct production viability (i.e. lithium and calcium salt) are not included, and company recently decided to produce calcium chloride in addition to gypsum as a byproduct to improve their project economics. The incorporation of calcium chloride (CaCL2) as a by-product in addition to gypsum provides greater optionality to maximize returns. To produce calcium chloride, 5E will utilize more HCl in its manufacturing process. Depending on the raw material input costs of sulfuric acid versus HCl, and the sales price of gypsum and CaCl2, there is optionality in the process to have optimized economics based on market prices of raw material inputs and by-product revenues.

公司可以生產一種高濃度的熱溶液，而不是加熱生產的溶液以蒸發水分並提高硼酸濃度，然後再進行結晶（在温度降低時，硼酸的溶解度降低，硼酸以固體形式沉澱）。在我看來，這些生產工藝的改進風險較低（與中等風險的生產規模浸出相比），但在公司的預可行性研究中已被假定。副產品生產的可行性（即鋰和鈣鹽）未被包括在內，公司最近決定在改善項目經濟性方面，除了石膏外還生產氯化鈣作為副產品。將氯化鈣（CaCL2）作為副產品引入，除了石膏外，提供了更大的選擇性以最大化回報。為了生產氯化鈣，5E 將在其製造過程中使用更多的鹽酸。根據硫酸與鹽酸的原材料輸入成本，以及石膏和氯化鈣的銷售價格，工藝中存在優化經濟性的選擇，基於原材料輸入和副產品收入的市場價格。

Valuation

估值

5E Advanced Materials’ project has a $725m NPV7 (pre tax IRR of 19.2%) according to their August 2025 PFS, which only takes into account phase 1 (production of 136.5k ST BA) of their multiphase production operation. Phase 1 has a ~US$469M after-tax NPV7 with a post tax IRR of 16%. Phase 2, on the other hand, is expected to add another 180,000 short tons of boric acid, along with 2,200 short tons of lithium carbonate. To simplify, let’s assume phase 2 roughly doubles the mine’s value.

根據他們 2025 年 8 月的預可行性研究，5E Advanced Materials 的項目具有 7.25 億美元的淨現值（税前內部收益率為 19.2%），僅考慮其多階段生產操作的第一階段（生產 136,500 短噸硼酸）。第一階段的税後淨現值約為 4.69 億美元，税後內部收益率為 16%。另一方面，第二階段預計將增加另外 180,000 短噸的硼酸，以及 2,200 短噸的碳酸鋰。為了簡化，假設第二階段大致將礦山的價值翻倍。

In terms of multiples, it is reasonable to use a P/NPV ratio of 0.2-0.5x for exploration stage (mineral reserve estimates, preliminary economic analysis (PEA)), 0.5-0.8x for feasibility studies (pre-feasibility study (PFS), feasibility study (FS)) and construction, and 0.8-1.5x for production stages.

在倍數方面，對於勘探階段（礦藏儲量估算，初步經濟分析（PEA）），使用 0.2-0.5 倍的 P/NPV 比率是合理的；對於可行性研究（預可行性研究（PFS），可行性研究（FS））和建設階段，使用 0.5-0.8 倍；對於生產階段，使用 0.8-1.5 倍。

Since 5E is still trying to obtain financing for the project, I’ll use a conservative multiple of 0.5x of the $725m NPV for a current value of $362.5 million. Using the current outstanding shares of 22.44 million, that represents a share price of $16.15/share, a target somewhat above analyst estimates of between $7 and $9.25 (Maxim and HC Wainwright, respectively). This is a bit of an aggressive price target for now, but if the company can get on track with financing and construction and effectively mitigate any future delays, I think FEAM shares could be re-rated higher, whereas more delays will de-rate the shares further.

由於 5E 仍在努力為該項目獲得融資，我將使用 725 百萬美元 NPV 的 0.5 倍的保守倍數，當前價值為 362.5 百萬美元。根據當前的流通股數 2244 萬股，這代表每股價格為 16.15 美元，目標價略高於分析師估計的 7 到 9.25 美元（分別為 Maxim 和 HC Wainwright）。目前這是一個相對激進的價格目標，但如果公司能夠順利進行融資和建設，並有效減輕未來的延誤，我認為 FEAM 的股票可能會被重新評估更高，而更多的延誤將進一步降低股票價值。

Looking forward, as the company reaches production in several years, investors could value the company either on 1.5x the $725m NPV, or 0.8x the $1.45 billion NPV of the expanded mine (i.e. including Phase 2), for a total value of $1.09-1.16 billion. Assuming shares outstanding inflate to around 40 million at that time, shares could be worth around $29 each. As such, the company could be a near ten-bagger in several years’ time (7.5x). Assuming this takes 5 years, that is a ~50% CAGR in share price. The company also recently released a large increase in its measured and indicated resources, including 170% and 165% increases in H3O3 and LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), and those increases are not reflected in the PFS used for this valuation. With the updated resource, 5E boasts the largest borate resource in the U.S.

展望未來，隨着公司在幾年內達到生產，投資者可能會以 725 百萬美元 NPV 的 1.5 倍或擴展礦山（即包括第二階段）145 億美元 NPV 的 0.8 倍來評估公司，總價值為 10.9 億到 11.6 億美元。假設屆時流通股數膨脹至約 4000 萬股，股票可能價值約 29 美元。因此，該公司在幾年內可能成為接近十倍的投資（7.5 倍）。假設這需要 5 年時間，股價的年複合增長率約為 50%。公司最近還發布了其測量和指示資源的大幅增加，包括 H3O3 和 LCE（鋰碳酸鹽當量）分別增加 170% 和 165%，這些增加在用於本次估值的 PFS 中並未反映。根據更新的資源，5E 擁有美國最大的硼礦資源。

Competition

競爭

Boron deposits are very rare, but there are several other sites in progress. There are several other promising, somewhat large projects progressing globally, some of which are in the United States and have also seen governmental support. A table below details some of the future boron producers along with their project’s status and forecasted annual production.

硼礦儲量非常稀有，但還有幾個其他項目正在進行中。全球有幾個其他有前景的、相對較大的項目正在推進，其中一些位於美國，並且也得到了政府的支持。下表詳細列出了一些未來的硼生產商及其項目狀態和預測年產量。


Project Name, Company	Location, Start Date	Status	Forecast Annual Production	Notes
Fort Cady Boron Project (Phase 1) 5E Advanced Materials (Nasdaq: FEAM)	California, USA 2027-2028	Pre-feasibility complete; FEED underway; FID/financing targeted for mid-2026	>136,000 tpa boric acid	Scalable U.S. source; 39.5-year mine life; reserves of 5.4 million short tons boric acid; high-purity
Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project Ioneer Ltd. (Nasdaq: IONR)	Nevada, USA 2028 (initial)	Permitted (Oct 2024); construction financing advancing; leach optimizations	126,700 tpa boric acid (co-product with lithium)	82-year mine life; boron ~25% of revenue; lithium primary (22,400 tpa LCE avg.). $1.37B NPV8 (post-tax), very low on cost curve. Updated to $1.89B on optimization and new mine plan.
Bonnie Claire Lithium-Boron Project Nevada Lithium Resources Inc. (OTCMKTS: NVLHF)	Nye County, Nevada, USA 2028 -2029	PEA completed (Aug 2025); advancing to feasibility	129,000 tpa boric acid (co-product with 62,000 tpa LCE)	61-year mine life; inferred resources expanded (25.6 Mt LCE at 3,085 ppm Li lower zone, Oct 2025); pre-tax NPV $1.2B (2025 PEA at $15,000/t LCE, $700/t boric acid) Low capex (~$450M); boron enhances economics amid critical mineral status.
Piskanja Boron Project Boron One Holdings Inc. (TSXV: BONE.V) (OTCMKTS: ERVFF)	Baljevic, Serbia 2027 -2028	EIA completed (May 2025); advancing exploitation field permitting (Sep 2025 update); bench-scale testing successful (Nov 2024)	258,000 tpa B2O3 concentrate, 25,000 tpa boric acid	16-year mine life; measured resource 1.39 Mt @ 35.59% B2O3. Pre-tax NPV $607M (2022 PEA), IRR 42%; low capex (~$170M); EU/Asia exports.


項目名稱，公司	地點，開始日期	狀態	預測年產量	備註
Fort Cady Boron Project (Phase 1)
5E Advanced Materials (Nasdaq: FEAM)	美國加利福尼亞州
2027-2028	預可行性完成；FEED 進行中；FID/融資目標為 2026 年中	>136,000 噸/年硼酸	可擴展的美國來源；39.5 年礦山壽命；儲量 540 萬噸硼酸；高純度
Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project
Ioneer Ltd. (Nasdaq: IONR)	美國內華達州
2028（初步）	已獲許可（2024 年 10 月）；建設融資推進；浸出優化	126,700 噸/年硼酸（與鋰共同生產）	82 年礦山壽命；硼約佔收入的 25%；鋰為主要產品（22,400 噸/年 LCE 平均）。
$1.37B NPV8（税後），成本曲線非常低。優化和新礦計劃更新至$1.89B。
Bonnie Claire Lithium-Boron Project
Nevada Lithium Resources Inc.
(OTCMKTS: NVLHF)	美國內華達州奈縣
2028-2029	PEA 完成（2025 年 8 月）；推進至可行性	129,000 噸/年硼酸（與 62,000 噸/年 LCE 共同生產）	61 年礦山壽命；推斷資源擴大（25.6 百萬噸 LCE，鋰含量 3,085 ppm，2025 年 10 月）；税前 NPV $1.2B（2025 年 PEA 按$15,000/噸 LCE，$700/噸硼酸）
低資本支出（約$450M）；硼在關鍵礦物狀態下提升經濟性。
Piskanja Boron Project
Boron One Holdings Inc.
(TSXV: BONE.V)
(OTCMKTS: ERVFF)	塞爾維亞 Baljevic
2027-2028	EIA 完成（2025 年 5 月）；推進開採場地許可（2025 年 9 月更新）；基準測試成功（2024 年 11 月）	258,000 噸/年 B2O3 濃縮物，25,000 噸/年硼酸	16 年礦山壽命；測量資源 1.39 百萬噸 @35.59% B2O3。
税前 NPV $607M（2022 年 PEA），IRR 42%；低資本支出（約$170M）；出口至歐盟/亞洲。

Notably, Ioneer (primarily a lithium company) trades at a $314 million (USD) market cap despite a $996 million loan guarantee from the DOE for Rhyolite Ridge. Ioneer trades around a $300 million market cap (USD). Their relative valuations are comparable.

值得注意的是，Ioneer（主要是一家鋰公司）儘管獲得了來自 DOE 的 996 百萬美元貸款擔保，但其市值仍為 3.14 億美元（USD）。Ioneer 的市值約為 3 億美元（USD）。它們的相對估值是可比的。

While there is competition, 5E is mainly producing boric acid, which has 1.2Mton global supply currently and is expected to increase at ~4-6% over the next decade, and it appears that modest supply will help alleviate some of that demand growth. Notably, 5E

雖然存在競爭，但 5E 主要生產硼酸，目前全球供應為 120 萬噸，預計在未來十年將以約 4-6% 的速度增長，適度的供應似乎將有助於緩解部分需求增長。值得注意的是，5E

Global Boric Acid Supply and Demand Forecast, 5E Advanced Material’s Investor Presentation, October 2025

全球硼酸供應和需求預測，5E Advanced Materials 的投資者演示，2025 年 10 月

The company also cites forecasts for a fairly large supply gap over the next few years as the plethora (hundreds) of use cases for boron demand more and more product and as new project supply lags demand as it comes online.

公司還引用了未來幾年內相當大的供應缺口的預測，因為硼的眾多（數百個）使用案例對產品的需求越來越多，而新項目的供應滯後於需求。

Forecasted Boron Demand Gap, 5E Advanced Materials Website (Source: Credit Suisse Equity Research)

預測的硼需求缺口，5E Advanced Materials 網站（來源：瑞士信貸股票研究）

Financials

財務

To complete Fort Cady’s Phase 1, it is estimated that the company needs a total of ~$435 million to start operations, but Export-Import (EXIM) Bank of the United States, which serves to help finance critical projects like this boron production facility, signed a non-binding letter of intent to finance $285 million of this project. Presumably, the company needs to secure offtake agreement which should help it obtain debt financing for the project buildout as product demand is proven. In other words, offtake agreements help reduce risk for lenders for debt financing. But customers signing offtake agreements will want to know that the project can be financed and built. So both of these items (offtake agreements, debt financing) need to kind of happen in tandem. The EXIM letter of intent, in my opinion, is a nice vote of confidence for the company that may help the commercial/financial agreements come together.

為了完成福特凱迪的第一階段，預計公司需要大約 4.35 億美元來啓動運營，但美國進出口銀行（EXIM）簽署了一份非約束性意向書，計劃為該項目融資 2.85 億美元，該項目是一個關鍵的硼生產設施。可以推測，公司需要確保簽署購銷協議，這將有助於其獲得項目建設的債務融資，因為產品需求得到了證明。換句話説，購銷協議有助於降低債權人的債務融資風險。但簽署購銷協議的客户希望瞭解該項目是否能夠獲得融資和建設。因此，這兩個事項（購銷協議、債務融資）需要同步進行。在我看來，EXIM 的意向書是對公司的良好信心投票，可能有助於商業/金融協議的達成。

5E has -$41.5 million in TTM operating income, with -$29.4 million in TTM net income, according to their most recent 10-Q (ending September 30th, 2025). A lot of this is depreciation and amortization, so their cash burn is currently closer to $4-5 million per quarter. While this is a concerning burn rate because the company’s cash position is only $5.5 million, as long as management secures bankable offtake agreements in a timely manner, the cash burn should not be a grave concern. Additionally, management has options at $6.72/share, and all the warrants are exercisable at ~$17-18. Therefore, there is no current option or warrant overhang, and management has significant incentives aligned with shareholder value.

根據他們最近的 10-Q（截至2025年9月30日），5E 的 TTM 營業收入為-4150 萬美元，TTM 淨收入為-2940 萬美元。這其中很大一部分是折舊和攤銷，因此他們目前的現金消耗接近每季度 400 萬到 500 萬美元。雖然這是一個令人擔憂的消耗率，因為公司的現金狀況僅為 550 萬美元，但只要管理層及時確保可融資的購銷協議，現金消耗就不應該是一個嚴重的問題。此外，管理層的期權為每股 6.72 美元，所有認股權證的行使價在約 17-18 美元。因此，目前沒有期權或認股權證的負擔，管理層與股東價值之間有顯著的激勵一致性。

Risks

風險

Financing is a major risk to this project, as it is for any small company looking to start up major mining operations. 5E is aiming to secure commercial offtake agreements at prices above the market, presumably due to their location and their boric acid purity.

融資是該項目的主要風險，就像任何小公司希望啓動大型採礦操作一樣。5E 的目標是以高於市場的價格確保商業購銷協議，這可能與他們的位置和硼酸的純度有關。

Additionally, their technical report assumes a higher head grade of boron than they are currently producing. This head grade will need to be improved to near 9.5% for the company to reach its full value. This can be achieved by heating the injected solution above ground or by injecting steam into the formation. Both options address the endpoint of the pregnant leachate solution exiting the ground at 160 degrees Fahrenheit, as increased temperature allows for higher total solubility of solute such as boron. This should be achievable, but still needs to be done and is therefore a risk.

此外，他們的技術報告假設的硼頭級品位高於他們目前的生產水平。為了使公司實現其全部價值，這一頭級品位需要提高到接近 9.5%。這可以通過在地面加熱注入的溶液或向地層注入蒸汽來實現。這兩種選擇都解決了孕液在 160 華氏度下從地面排出的終點，因為提高温度可以提高溶質（如硼）的總溶解度。這應該是可以實現的，但仍然需要完成，因此仍然存在風險。

Section 14.2.1 of Fort Cady August 2025 PFS

福特凱迪 2025 年 8 月 PFS 第 14.2.1 節

The company’s leaching process is also a moderate risk, in my opinion. While this process could be considered straightforward, investors will likely not consider it derisked until high-volume, high-concentration boric acid is consistently produced. After all, other in-situ leaching operations have encounteredd difficulties. Gunnison Copper’s (OTCMKTS: GCUMF) in-situ leaching operation (copper production) ran into issues with CaSO4 clogging their wells since they were primarily using H2SO4 acid (which adds more sulfate into the well), and their geology had heterogeneous fractures, faults, and variable permeability in sandstone aquifer, which resulted in a poor sweep efficiency. When sulfuric acid H2SO4 reacts with most carbonates, it produces a metal sulfate, carbon dioxide CO2, and water H2O. However, the reaction can be hindered with certain carbonates, like calcium carbonate CaCO3, because an insoluble layer of CaSO4 (gypsum) forms, which can "armors" the remaining carbonate and stops the reaction from completing.

在我看來，公司的浸出過程也是一箇中等風險。雖然這個過程可以被認為是簡單的，但投資者可能不會認為它已經去風險化，直到高產、高濃度的硼酸被持續生產。畢竟，其他原位浸出操作遇到了困難。甘尼森銅業（OTCMKTS: GCUMF）的原位浸出操作（銅生產）在使用 H2SO4 酸（這會向井中添加更多硫酸鹽）時遇到了 CaSO4 堵塞井的問題，他們的地質結構存在異質性斷裂、斷層和砂岩含水層的可變滲透性，導致了較差的掃掠效率。當硫酸 H2SO4 與大多數碳酸鹽反應時，會產生金屬硫酸鹽、二氧化碳 CO2 和水 H2O。然而，某些碳酸鹽（如碳酸鈣 CaCO3）可能會妨礙反應，因為會形成不溶性 CaSO4（石膏）層，這會 “保護” 剩餘的碳酸鹽，阻止反應完成。

Additionally, the generated CO2 can impair flowback. Due to these acid-consuming issues which impeded flowback that was amplified by complicated stratigraphy, Gunnison later pivoted to open pit mining but retains its permits for in situ recovery as an option.

此外，生成的 CO2 可能會影響回流。由於這些消耗酸的問題妨礙了回流，並且由於複雜的地層放大了這一問題，甘尼森後來轉向露天採礦，但保留了原位回收的許可證作為選項。

On the contrary, 5E’s Fort Cady Boron project is a simpler stratigraphy (less faulting), which supports better fluid distribution and expected sweep efficiency. 5E also uses HCl instead of CaSO4, which should produce calcium chlorides in solution as opposed to gypsum (CaSO4). With the Fort Cady’s simpler stratigraphy, its possible that if there is any gypsum produced (there shouldn’t be), it simply flows back without causing problems. Existing sulfates in the well should be highly insoluble, resulting in minimal sulfate dissolved in the pregnant leachate solution. General in-situ leaching risks, such as aquifer contamination or regulatory delays are still relevant.

相反，5E 的福特凱迪硼項目具有更簡單的地層（較少的斷層），這支持更好的流體分佈和預期的掃掠效率。5E 還使用 HCl 而不是 CaSO4，這應該在溶液中產生氯化鈣，而不是石膏（CaSO4）。由於福特凱迪的地層更簡單，如果產生任何石膏（不應該有），它可能會簡單地回流而不會造成問題。井中現有的硫酸鹽應該是高度不溶的，導致孕液中溶解的硫酸鹽極少。一般的原位浸出風險，如含水層污染或監管延誤仍然是相關的。

Conclusion

結論

I am mostly interested in silver (and gold) mining companies as we approach what could be a price outbreak for silver and gold, and a subsequent massive run for associated, high quality junior miners. However, in the U.S., critical minerals are becoming an increased focus for our domestic supply chain, and aside from discerning whether specifically boron is a mineral one wants to invest in, the type of due diligence required to analyze this opportunity is similar to a PEA-staged precious metals explorer. While FEAM trades under 20% of its post-tax, Phase 1 NPV and at below 15% of its pre-tax NPV, despite reaching an initial smaller-scale commercial stage, I consider the company attractively valued. As operations improve and expand, I expect the company to trade at a higher percentage of its NPV, with the optionality of an increased multiple as they fill the void in the fragile and unbalanced boron supply chain.

隨着我們接近可能的銀和黃金價格爆發，以及隨之而來的高質量小型礦業公司的大規模上漲，我主要對銀（和黃金）採礦公司感興趣。然而，在美國，關鍵礦物正日益成為我們國內供應鏈的重點，除了判斷硼是否是一個值得投資的礦物外，分析這一機會所需的盡職調查類型與 PEA 階段的貴金屬勘探者類似。儘管 FEAM 的交易價格低於其税後第一階段淨現值的 20%，並且低於其税前淨現值的 15%，儘管已經達到初步的小規模商業階段，我認為該公司的估值具有吸引力。隨着運營的改善和擴展，我預計公司將以更高的淨現值百分比進行交易，並有可能在填補脆弱和不平衡的硼供應鏈的同時提高倍數。

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