<div id="readability-page-1">CHIPPING NORTON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 19: Imran Amed, Founder &amp; CEO, The Business of Fashion speaks onstage during Session 3: TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION &#34;If This Is an AI Bubble, What Comes Next?&#34; at The Business of Fashion Presents VOICES 2025 - Day 2 at Soho Farmhouse on November 19, 2025 in Chipping Norton, England. (Photo by Vittorio Zunino Celotto/Getty Images for Business of Fashion) Getty Images for Business of Fashion Shares of AI neo cloud operator CoreWeave and database and cloud-services provider Oracle have plunged 62% and 47% respectively since peaking earlier this year, according to Google Finance .  The generative AI bubble that propelled these stocks so much earlier in 2025 may now be contributing to their fall.  Two months ago, I saw three scenarios: GenAI keeps booming, there’s a soft-landing in which valuations decline somewhat, and the OpenAI bankruptcy scenario which brings it all down abruptly should the ChatGPT provider fail to raise more capital to fund its money-losing operations, noted my Oct. 15, 2025 Forbes post.  CoreWeave – which leases data centers, fills them with GPU-heavy clusters, and then rents out the processing capacity, according to Reuters – and Oracle are likely to suffer the most damage should the pessimistic scenario come to pass.  This raises many questions:  CoreWeave sees itself as misunderstood. “When you introduce new models, introduce a new way of doing business, disrupt what has been a static environment, it’s going to take some people some time,” CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator said at the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference. More people are beginning to understand the CoreWeave business model, he added.  MORE FOR YOU Oracle is taking action to protect its credit quality. The company “is committed to maintaining its investment-grade debt rating,” said one of Oracle’s co-CEOs Clay Magouyrk, reported Bloomberg .  Read on for more detailed answers to these questions and the eye-popping increases in the price of insurance – called credit default swaps -- for CoreWeave and Oracle debt.  When the dot-com bubble burst, it wiped out trillions of dollars of stock market value and prompted the bankruptcies of money-losing fiber optic network companies and Internet startups that had gone public during the boom.  The parallels with the generative AI bubble are imperfect. For example, very few generative AI startups have gone public. What’s more, many of the companies building out AI data centers – such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft – are solidly profitable, noted my previously-linked Forbes post.  The risks of the generative AI bubble include a projected $3 trillion investment by 2028 to support a six-fold expansion in data center capacity, according to Morgan Stanley analysis feature in the afore-linked Reuters report, a 95% failure rate for enterprise AI pilot projects, and OpenAI’s substantial cash burn and reliance on continuous capital raises.  In the last two months, I think the likelihood of the three scenarios I outlined in October have shifted to higher risk as detailed below.  In October, I thought AI valuations might decline 60% to 70% over a two to three year period without panic. Strong growth and earnings at Microsoft, Google, and Meta could provide cushioning while enterprise adoption of AI would continued at realistic valuations.  As of today’s writing this middle path is disappearing as high borrowing and larger capital expenditure requirements are making a gentle correction unlikely while a boom-or-bust outcome is becoming more probable.  The most pessimistic scenario – which has grown more likely since October – started with OpenAI failing to raise enough capital to cover its $14 billion annual cash burn – leading to emergency measures. Under this scenario CoreWeave could lose 60% of its revenue and file for bankruptcy. Nvidia might suffer a 6% reduction in its revenue and take a $100 billion investment write-down.  Oracle and Microsoft would likely mark down their OpenAI investment. This could lead to an abrupt curtailment of AI capital expenditures – resulting in a recession, a drop of 40% to 50% in Nvidia’s stock price and a 20% to 30% decline in the S&amp;P 500 – since AI stocks provided 75% of gains.  The likelihood of this scenario has increased as CoreWeave’s CDS prices have spiked, implying a 42% probability of default over five years, according to Investing.com , while Oracle’s debt is now trading like junk bonds.  In this optimistic scenario, companies discover ways to use AI to achieve efficiency and growth improvements – making current investments profitable. Revenue growth accelerates to match valuations and the bubble inflates further before any reckoning.  While OpenAI’s revenue growth is approaching a $20 billion run rate, this positive development is overshadowed by a reported $207 billion funding gap through 2030, noted Seeking Alpha .  Rising concerns about a bursting of the generative AI bubble have contributed to the decline in CoreWeave and Oracle shares.  However, they each have their unique challenges. CoreWeave’s stock has fallen because of its high cost of borrowing, operational challenges, and confusing communications about the company’s prospects, reported the Wall Street Journal . Here are key details:  Oracle stock has fallen because the company lacks the cash flow to build the capacity required to fill its $500 billion cloud services backlog. Therefore the company is borrowing more money, noted Dow Jones .  Indeed, Oracle – which in September borrowed $18 billion – will likely have to boost its debt from $100 billion earlier this year to $290 billion over the next three years, according to a note from Morgan Stanley analyst Lindsay Tyler featured by Dow Jones.  Analysts are growing more cautious about CoreWeave and Oracle.  One analyst sees CoreWeave as good at building big AI data centers even as investors worry about AI’s payoff.  “They’re exceptional at getting large workloads up at maximum utilization and replacing underperforming nodes rapidly without interrupting workflow,” founder and chief investment officer of hedge fund Two Seas – which is long CoreWeave stock – Sina Toussi told the Journal. “But right now the market is concerned about the long-term value of AI,” he added  Another analyst expressed concern about CoreWeave’s financial structure. The company has the “ugliest balance sheet in technology, by far,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria told the Journal.  CoreWeave’s operating margins “of about 4% are less than half of what the company pays in interest on most of the debt it uses to deploy computing power for customers, making it hard to see how the company will generate profits going forward,” added Luria.  “The bull case is that they’ll scale into it, and that a lot of companies have low margins to start, but this is a company at scale. There is no scaling going on here,” he concluded.  Oracle is also seen as weaker than peers – with less cash flow, higher debt levels and lower credit ratings. Oracle also “has significantly higher counterparty risk from OpenAI,” said Columbia Threadneedle Investments fixed-income research analyst Nathan Liddle, according to Dow Jones.  Investors are increasingly seeking financial protection as concerns over an AI debt bust grow. CDS trading has surged by 90% since September, noted a Financial Times article featured by the previously linked Seeking Alpha report.  Last week, after Oracle reported unexpectedly high capital expenditures on chips, networking equipment and other infrastructure, the bond market “convulsed, raising the cost of capital for many large tech companies. CoreWeave’s cost of insuring against default on its debts soared to 7.9 percentage points,” reported the Journal.  On December 11, the cost of protecting Oracle’s debt against default for five years rose as much as 0.17 percentage points to around 1.41 percentage point a year, the highest intraday level since April 2009, according to ICE Data Services data featured by Bloomberg .  Moreover, trading volume on Oracle’s CDS surged 21.4-fold in the last year to about $9.2 billion over the 10 weeks ended Dec. 5, according to Barclays credit strategist Jigar Patel analysis featured by Bloomberg.  Unless CoreWeave and Oracle experience a surge in positive cash flow or curtail their expansions, it would not surprise me if these CDS prices keep rising.</div>

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甲骨文

<p>CoreWeave 和甲骨文的股票分別暴跌了 62% 和 47%，因為生成式人工智能泡沫正在破裂。為了擴展人工智能數據中心而進行的大量借貸讓債券市場感到不安，導致債務保險價格上漲。CoreWeave 的首席執行官聲稱公司被誤解，而甲骨文則旨在維持其投資級債務評級。OpenAI 潛在失敗的悲觀情景可能導致重大的財務後果，包括 CoreWeave 的破產和更廣泛的市場下滑</p>

隨着生成式 AI 泡沫的破裂，CoreWeave 和甲骨文的股票大幅下跌