<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>國際清算銀行（BIS），全球中央銀行的中央銀行，在其 2025 年 12 月的季度評論中警告稱，股票和黃金價格同時出現罕見泡沫，增加了金融風險，並可能導致重大修正以及未來回報的負面或低迷前景：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>一種廣泛使用的統計測試用於檢測價格過程的爆炸性，表明標準普爾 500 指數和黃金價格在最近幾個月都已進入爆炸性區域。從歷史上看，美國股票和黃金的價格在不同時間突破了爆炸性行為的閾值（圖 C1.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>這通常會伴隨顯著的修正，例如 1980 年的黃金（在經歷了大通貨膨脹的飆升後）和美國股票的互聯網泡沫破裂……還要注意，過去幾個季度是至少過去 50 年來黃金和股票同時進入這一領域的唯一時間。</p>
<p>在經歷爆炸性階段後，泡沫通常會以急劇而迅速的修正破裂。圖 C1.B（右下角）表明，測試統計量的高值——暗示着正在進行的泡沫——通常會伴隨負面或低迷的回報期。</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p>換句話説，我們正經歷一場金融熱潮的疫情，那些相信通過持有 “多元化” 企業證券和貴金屬來保護自己的人，面臨着失望的高風險。</p>
<p>此外，零售投資者的過度熱情是經典的泡沫症狀，而我們正處於這種狀態：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>發展中泡沫的典型症狀是零售投資者試圖追逐價格趨勢的影響力日益增強。在媒體炒作和價格飆升的時期，零售投資者可能會被誘導投資於他們通常會迴避的風險資產，這種情況因羊羣行為、社交互動和害怕錯過而加劇。實際上，零售投資者對市場的興趣指標，如互聯網搜索，往往在泡沫時期激增（圖 C2.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>這一次，還有證據表明，零售投資者的過度熱情和對看似輕鬆資本收益的渴望已經蔓延到傳統的避風港，如黃金。自 2025 年初以來，黃金交易所交易基金（ETF）的價格一直以高於其淨資產值（NAV）的溢價交易，伴隨着零售投資者興趣的增長（圖 C2.B，藍線，中間，下面）。ETF 價格超過其 NAV 表明強烈的購買壓力以及套利的障礙。</p>
<p>基金流動數據揭示，最近主要是零售投資者向美國股票和黃金基金注入資金。此外，零售投資者越來越多地採取與機構投資者相反的交易頭寸：後者從美國股票中撤資或在黃金中保持平倉，而零售投資者則記錄了資金流入（圖 C2.C，右下角）。</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p>儘管零售投資者的湧入緩解了</p>
<p>機構投資者撤資的影響，但他們日益突出的地位可能會在未來威脅市場穩定，考慮到他們傾向於參與羊羣行為，一旦發生拋售，可能會加劇價格波動。</p>
</blockquote>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自該作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>金融狀況在年末收緊</p>
<p>高昂的住房價格代價不菲</p>
<p>加拿大央行是否已停止降息？</p>

2 倍做空納斯達克生物技術 ETF - ProShares

<p>國際結算銀行（BIS）警告稱，股票和黃金同時出現罕見的泡沫，增加了金融風險和市場大幅修正的潛在可能性。標準普爾 500 指數和黃金價格均已進入爆炸性區域，歷史上這通常會導致市場修正。散户投資者的過度熱情正在助長這一泡沫，投資於美國股票和黃金基金的增加可能威脅到市場的穩定</p>

<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank of central banks globally, warns in its December 2025 Quarterly Review that a rare, simultaneous bubble in the price of stocks and gold has increased financial risks and the prospect of a significant correction and negative or subdued future returns:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際清算銀行（BIS），全球中央銀行的中央銀行，在其 2025 年 12 月的季度評論中警告稱，股票和黃金價格同時出現罕見泡沫，增加了金融風險，並可能導致重大修正以及未來回報的負面或低迷前景：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>A widely used statistical test to detect the explosiveness of a price process suggests that both the S&amp;P 500 and the price of gold have entered explosive territory in recent months. Historically, the prices of US equities and gold have breached the explosive behaviour threshold at different times (Graph C1.A, on lower left).</p>
<p>This was often followed by a significant correction, such as in 1980 for gold (after having surged during the Great Inflation) and the burst of the dotcom bubble for US equities… Also note that the past few quarters represent the only time in at least the last 50 years in which gold and equities have entered this territory simultaneously.</p>
<p>Following its explosive phase, a bubble typically bursts with a sharp and swift correction. Graph C1.B (lower right) suggests that high values of the test statistics – hinting at an ongoing bubble – are typically followed by periods of negative or subdued returns.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>一種廣泛使用的統計測試用於檢測價格過程的爆炸性，表明標準普爾 500 指數和黃金價格在最近幾個月都已進入爆炸性區域。從歷史上看，美國股票和黃金的價格在不同時間突破了爆炸性行為的閾值（圖 C1.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>這通常會伴隨顯著的修正，例如 1980 年的黃金（在經歷了大通貨膨脹的飆升後）和美國股票的互聯網泡沫破裂……還要注意，過去幾個季度是至少過去 50 年來黃金和股票同時進入這一領域的唯一時間。</p>
<p>在經歷爆炸性階段後，泡沫通常會以急劇而迅速的修正破裂。圖 C1.B（右下角）表明，測試統計量的高值——暗示着正在進行的泡沫——通常會伴隨負面或低迷的回報期。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p>In other words, we are living through a pandemic of financial fever, and those who believe they are protected by holding a ‘diversified’ portfolio of corporate securities and precious metals are at high risk of being disappointed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，我們正經歷一場金融熱潮的疫情，那些相信通過持有 “多元化” 企業證券和貴金屬來保護自己的人，面臨着失望的高風險。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, retail exuberance is a classic bubble symptom, and we are there:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，零售投資者的過度熱情是經典的泡沫症狀，而我們正處於這種狀態：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>A typical symptom of a developing bubble is the growing influence of retail investors trying to chase price trends. At times of media hype and surging prices, retail investors can be lured to riskier assets that they would normally shun, compounded by herd-like behaviour, social interactions and fear of missing out. Indeed, measures of retail investors’ interest in markets, such as internet searches, tend to surge at times of frothiness (Graph C2.A, on lower left).</p>
<p>This time around, there is also evidence that retail investor exuberance and appetite for seemingly easy capital gains have spilled over to a traditional safe haven such as gold. Since the beginning of 2025, gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) prices have been consistently trading at a premium relative to their net asset value (NAV) amid growing retail investor interest (Graph C2.B, blue line, middle, below). ETF prices exceeding their NAV signal strong buying pressure coupled with impediments to arbitrage.</p>
<p>Fund flow data reveal it was mostly retail investors who recently poured money into US equities and gold funds. Furthermore, retail investors have increasingly taken trading positions that run counter to those of their institutional counterparts: the latter were taking money out of US equities or maintaining flat positions in gold, while retail investors recorded inflows (Graph C2.C, lower right).</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>發展中泡沫的典型症狀是零售投資者試圖追逐價格趨勢的影響力日益增強。在媒體炒作和價格飆升的時期，零售投資者可能會被誘導投資於他們通常會迴避的風險資產，這種情況因羊羣行為、社交互動和害怕錯過而加劇。實際上，零售投資者對市場的興趣指標，如互聯網搜索，往往在泡沫時期激增（圖 C2.A，左下角）。</p>
<p>這一次，還有證據表明，零售投資者的過度熱情和對看似輕鬆資本收益的渴望已經蔓延到傳統的避風港，如黃金。自 2025 年初以來，黃金交易所交易基金（ETF）的價格一直以高於其淨資產值（NAV）的溢價交易，伴隨着零售投資者興趣的增長（圖 C2.B，藍線，中間，下面）。ETF 價格超過其 NAV 表明強烈的購買壓力以及套利的障礙。</p>
<p>基金流動數據揭示，最近主要是零售投資者向美國股票和黃金基金注入資金。此外，零售投資者越來越多地採取與機構投資者相反的交易頭寸：後者從美國股票中撤資或在黃金中保持平倉，而零售投資者則記錄了資金流入（圖 C2.C，右下角）。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Although the influx of retail investors has mitigated the</p>
<p>impact of institutional investor outflows, their growing prominence could threaten market stability down the road, given their propensity to engage in herd-like behaviour, amplifying price gyrations should fire sales occur.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>儘管零售投資者的湧入緩解了</p>
<p>機構投資者撤資的影響，但他們日益突出的地位可能會在未來威脅市場穩定，考慮到他們傾向於參與羊羣行為，一旦發生拋售，可能會加劇價格波動。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自該作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Financial Conditions Tighten Into Year End</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融狀況在年末收緊</p>
</div><p>High Shelter Prices Cost A Fortune</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高昂的住房價格代價不菲</p>
</div><p>Is The Bank Of Canada Done Easing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大央行是否已停止降息？</p>
</div>

國際清算銀行警告稱股票和黃金市場同時出現罕見泡沫