<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 - 委內瑞拉石油供應風險</strong></h3>
<p>昨日，油市拋售加速。ICE 布倫特原油結算下跌 2.7%，跌破 60 美元/桶，創下自 2021 年 2 月以來的最低水平。這一壓力源於日益增長的供應過剩預期。對俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭停火的希望無疑將加大下行壓力。正如我們的石油平衡所示，預計過剩將在 2026 年第一季度達到峯值。然而，明年每個季度都將出現過剩，庫存預計將在 2026 年持續增長，進一步壓低油價。</p>
<p>我們對市場的看法存在明顯的供應風險。俄羅斯的風險已經被充分傳達，但委內瑞拉的石油供應風險也很明顯。今天早盤交易中，油價有所反彈（WTI 在撰寫時上漲約 1.3%），這是因為特朗普總統下令對進入和離開委內瑞拉的受制裁油輪實施封鎖。這是在美國上週在委內瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油輪之後發生的。委內瑞拉在 11 月的石油出口量約為 60 萬桶/日。考慮到最新的發展，這些出口量可能會下降。這部分石油主要運往中國。</p>
<p>美國石油協會（API）昨夜發佈的庫存數據也對市場形成了支持。報告顯示，美國原油庫存在過去一週減少了 930 萬桶。同時，成品油庫存變化則較為悲觀，汽油和餾分燃料油庫存分別增加了 480 萬桶和 250 萬桶。</p>
<p>歐洲天然氣價格昨日繼續承壓，Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) 下跌 2.4%。温和的天氣對市場造成了壓力。然而，預測顯示本月晚些時候天氣將轉冷，這可能會對價格提供一些支持。特別是考慮到歐盟天然氣儲存目前低於平均水平，當前儲存量為 69%，而五年平均水平為 78%。投資基金在 TTF 持有的創紀錄空頭頭寸仍然構成風險。</p>
<h3><strong>金屬 - South32 的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠將關閉</strong></h3>
<p>South32 將在未能確保長期電力供應後關閉其位於莫桑比克的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠，這將進一步加劇市場緊張。這將使全球庫存保持在低位，而價格預計明年將進一步上漲。Mozal 將在 3 月進行維護，屆時當前合同將結束。South32 表示，未能採購到維持運營所需的原材料。Mozal 冶煉廠是南非南 32 公司持有 64% 股份的莫桑比克最大工業僱主，2025 年佔 South32 鋁生產總量的約 29%。鋁是莫桑比克第三大出口商品。</p>
<p>鋁的生產高度依賴能源，全球冶煉廠一直在努力以可行的價格確保長期電力合同。</p>
<p>這意味着我們的全球鋁缺口將增加到約 60 萬噸。這還假設 Century 的冰島停產持續 12 個月，以及中國的產能限制將保持在 4500 萬噸。然而，印尼新產能的快速提升可能會縮小這一缺口，並對價格施加下行壓力。</p>
<p>Mozal 一直是向歐洲出口鋁的重要來源。冶煉廠的關閉將直接影響歐盟的鋁工業。歐洲不太可能重啓足夠的閒置冶煉能力來填補 Mozal 的缺口，電價波動限制了任何有意義的國內復甦。這意味着鋁的溢價將上升，供應將更加緊張，特別是對於低碳鋁。Mozal 的鋁是使用水電生產的，被視為低碳鋁。它幫助歐洲買家實現脱碳目標，並限制 CBAM 的影響。</p>
<h3><strong>農業 - 小麥因停火希望而下跌</strong></h3>
<p>CBOT 小麥價格昨日連續第三個交易日下跌，達到自 2025 年 10 月以來的最低水平，原因是南美供應充足的預期以及結束烏克蘭戰爭的努力重啓。預計該國在 2025/26 年度的麥子產量約為 2300 萬噸，比 2021/22 年度減少約 1000 萬噸，主要是由於種植面積減少。停火最終可能導致種植面積和產量的恢復。</p>
<p>法國農業部的最新估計顯示，2026 年國內冬季穀物種植面積將達到 640 萬公頃，得益於天氣條件改善，比去年增長 2.3%。同樣，軟冬小麥的收成預計將同比增長 2.3%，達到 460 萬公頃，基本與五年平均水平持平。玉米收成已完成，生產（不包括種子）預計為 1340 萬噸，略高於上個月預測的 1320 萬噸。然而，這比上個季節的產量低 8%，主要是由於夏季的熱浪和乾旱條件影響了產量。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>就業放緩持續，給美聯儲帶來更多降息壓力</p>
<p>歐元區 PMI 下滑，但仍顯示第四季度温和增長信號</p>
<p>外匯日報：新興市場貨幣在年末表現強勁</p>

SOUHY

<p>特朗普總統已下令對進入和離開委內瑞拉的受制裁油輪實施封鎖，此舉是在美國在委內瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油輪之後做出的。預計這一措施將減少委內瑞拉的石油出口，主要是對中國的出口。此外，South32 將關閉其位於莫桑比克的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠，原因是缺乏長期電力供應，這將影響全球鋁庫存和價格。在南美供應充足的預期以及對俄烏停火的希望下，小麥價格已出現下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy - Venezuelan oil supply risks</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 - 委內瑞拉石油供應風險</strong></h3>
</div><p>The oil market sell-off accelerated yesterday. ICE Brent is settling 2.7% lower, breaking below US$60/bbl to its lowest level since February 2021. This pressure comes from a growing surplus outlook. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will undoubtedly add to the downward pressure. As our oil balance shows, the peak of the surplus is expected in the first quarter of 2026. However, with every quarter of next year in surplus, inventories should grow throughout 2026, putting further pressure on oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨日，油市拋售加速。ICE 布倫特原油結算下跌 2.7%，跌破 60 美元/桶，創下自 2021 年 2 月以來的最低水平。這一壓力源於日益增長的供應過剩預期。對俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭停火的希望無疑將加大下行壓力。正如我們的石油平衡所示，預計過剩將在 2026 年第一季度達到峯值。然而，明年每個季度都將出現過剩，庫存預計將在 2026 年持續增長，進一步壓低油價。</p>
</div><p>There are clear supply risks to our view. Russian risks are well telegraphed, but there are clear risks to the Venezuelan oil supply. Oil prices have bounced higher in early-morning trading today (WTI up around 1.3% at the time of writing), after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This follows the US seizing an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week. Venezuela exported around 600k b/d of oil in November. It’s likely that these volumes will fall given the latest developments. The bulk of this oil is shipped to China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們對市場的看法存在明顯的供應風險。俄羅斯的風險已經被充分傳達，但委內瑞拉的石油供應風險也很明顯。今天早盤交易中，油價有所反彈（WTI 在撰寫時上漲約 1.3%），這是因為特朗普總統下令對進入和離開委內瑞拉的受制裁油輪實施封鎖。這是在美國上週在委內瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油輪之後發生的。委內瑞拉在 11 月的石油出口量約為 60 萬桶/日。考慮到最新的發展，這些出口量可能會下降。這部分石油主要運往中國。</p>
</div><p>American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory numbers released overnight were also supportive of the market. US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 9.3m barrels over the last week. Meanwhile, refined product inventory changes were more bearish, with gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks increasing by 4.8m barrels and 2.5m barrels, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國石油協會（API）昨夜發佈的庫存數據也對市場形成了支持。報告顯示，美國原油庫存在過去一週減少了 930 萬桶。同時，成品油庫存變化則較為悲觀，汽油和餾分燃料油庫存分別增加了 480 萬桶和 250 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>European natural gas prices continued to come under pressure yesterday, with the Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) settling 2.4% lower. Milder weather weighed on the market. However, forecasts show that weather is set to turn colder than usual later in the month, which should provide some support to prices. Particularly when you consider that EU gas storage is below average, at 69% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 78%. The record-large gross short that investment funds hold in TTF continues to pose a risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲天然氣價格昨日繼續承壓，Tittle Transfer Facility (TTF) 下跌 2.4%。温和的天氣對市場造成了壓力。然而，預測顯示本月晚些時候天氣將轉冷，這可能會對價格提供一些支持。特別是考慮到歐盟天然氣儲存目前低於平均水平，當前儲存量為 69%，而五年平均水平為 78%。投資基金在 TTF 持有的創紀錄空頭頭寸仍然構成風險。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals – South32’s Mozal aluminium smelter to shut</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金屬 - South32 的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠將關閉</strong></h3>
</div><p>South32 will shut its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique after failing to secure a long-term electricity supply, adding to an already tight market. This should keep global inventories low, while prices are expected to see further upside next year. Mozal will be placed on care and maintenance in March, when the current contract ends. South32 said it has not procured the raw materials required to sustain operations beyond that period. The Mozal smelter, in which South32 holds a 64% stake, is Mozambique’s largest industrial employer. It accounted for around 29% of South32’s total aluminium production in 2025. Aluminium is Mozambique’s third-biggest export.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>South32 將在未能確保長期電力供應後關閉其位於莫桑比克的 Mozal 鋁冶煉廠，這將進一步加劇市場緊張。這將使全球庫存保持在低位，而價格預計明年將進一步上漲。Mozal 將在 3 月進行維護，屆時當前合同將結束。South32 表示，未能採購到維持運營所需的原材料。Mozal 冶煉廠是南非南 32 公司持有 64% 股份的莫桑比克最大工業僱主，2025 年佔 South32 鋁生產總量的約 29%。鋁是莫桑比克第三大出口商品。</p>
</div><p>Producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and smelters globally have been struggling to secure long-power contracts at viable prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁的生產高度依賴能源，全球冶煉廠一直在努力以可行的價格確保長期電力合同。</p>
</div><p>This means our global aluminium deficit will now increase to around 600kt. This also assumes Century’s 12-month Iceland outage and China’s capacity cap will remain at 45 million tonnes. Still, a faster-than-expected ramp-up in new Indonesian capacity could narrow that deficit and put downward pressure on prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着我們的全球鋁缺口將增加到約 60 萬噸。這還假設 Century 的冰島停產持續 12 個月，以及中國的產能限制將保持在 4500 萬噸。然而，印尼新產能的快速提升可能會縮小這一缺口，並對價格施加下行壓力。</p>
</div><p>Mozal has been a significant source of aluminium exports to Europe. The smelter’s closure will directly impact the EU’s aluminium industry. Europe is unlikely to restart enough idled smelting capacity to fill the Mozal gap, with power price volatility capping any meaningful domestic recovery. This means higher premiums and tighter supply, particularly for low-carbon aluminium. Mozal’s aluminium, produced using hydropower, is considered low-carbon. It has helped European buyers meet decarbonization targets and limit CBAM exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mozal 一直是向歐洲出口鋁的重要來源。冶煉廠的關閉將直接影響歐盟的鋁工業。歐洲不太可能重啓足夠的閒置冶煉能力來填補 Mozal 的缺口，電價波動限制了任何有意義的國內復甦。這意味着鋁的溢價將上升，供應將更加緊張，特別是對於低碳鋁。Mozal 的鋁是使用水電生產的，被視為低碳鋁。它幫助歐洲買家實現脱碳目標，並限制 CBAM 的影響。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Agriculture – Wheat declines on ceasefire hopes</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>農業 - 小麥因停火希望而下跌</strong></h3>
</div><p>CBOT wheat prices extended losses for a third consecutive session yesterday. They reached their lowest level since October 2025 amid expectations of abundant South American supply and renewed efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The nation is estimated to have produced around 23m tonnes of wheat in 2025/26, about 10m tonnes below 2021/22, largely due to reduced area. A ceasefire could ultimately lead to a recovery in both planted area and production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CBOT 小麥價格昨日連續第三個交易日下跌，達到自 2025 年 10 月以來的最低水平，原因是南美供應充足的預期以及結束烏克蘭戰爭的努力重啓。預計該國在 2025/26 年度的麥子產量約為 2300 萬噸，比 2021/22 年度減少約 1000 萬噸，主要是由於種植面積減少。停火最終可能導致種植面積和產量的恢復。</p>
</div><p>Recent estimates from France’s Agriculture Ministry show that the domestic winter grain plantings for 2026 will reach 6.4m hectares, thanks to better weather conditions, up 2.3% from last year. Similarly, the soft winter wheat harvest is expected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 4.6m hectares, roughly in line with the five-year average. The corn harvest is complete, with production (excluding seeds) estimated at 13.4mt, slightly higher than last month’s forecast of 13.2mt. However, this was 8% below last season’s output, largely due to heat waves and drought conditions during the summer weighing on yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法國農業部的最新估計顯示，2026 年國內冬季穀物種植面積將達到 640 萬公頃，得益於天氣條件改善，比去年增長 2.3%。同樣，軟冬小麥的收成預計將同比增長 2.3%，達到 460 萬公頃，基本與五年平均水平持平。玉米收成已完成，生產（不包括種子）預計為 1340 萬噸，略高於上個月預測的 1320 萬噸。然而，這比上個季節的產量低 8%，主要是由於夏季的熱浪和乾旱條件影響了產量。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Job Slowdown Continues, Keeping Pressure On The Fed For More Rate Cuts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就業放緩持續，給美聯儲帶來更多降息壓力</p>
</div><p>Eurozone PMI Slips But Still Signals Modest Growth In The Fourth Quarter</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐元區 PMI 下滑，但仍顯示第四季度温和增長信號</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: EMFX Ending The Year On A Strong Footing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外匯日報：新興市場貨幣在年末表現強勁</p>
</div>

大宗商品動態：特朗普對委內瑞拉石油油輪的封鎖