<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png"/></p>
<p>德國商業信心預計將在年末以較軟的姿態結束，突顯出歐洲最大經濟體在擺脱長期疲軟期方面的困難。</p>
<p>最新的調查數據顯示，儘管對當前狀況的看法變化不大，但企業對未來的預期變得更加謹慎。</p>
<p>最新數據顯示，德國經濟的前景呈現出複雜的局面，經濟增長乏力、外部壓力以及深層次的結構性問題使其面臨挑戰。</p>
<p>在今年的產出勉強避免衰退的情況下，焦點越來越轉向改革和公共支出計劃是否能夠恢復企業信心。</p>
<p>Ifo 研究所發佈的預期指數在 12 月份下降，顯示出企業對未來幾個月的情緒更加悲觀。</p>
<p>週三發佈的調查顯示，該指數從修正後的 90.5 降至 89.7。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="990" height="557" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Ifo 研究所</p>
<p>相比之下，另一項跟蹤企業對當前狀況評估的指標保持不變，這表明儘管未來前景黯淡，但當前的情況已趨於穩定。</p>
<h2>預期減弱</h2>
<p>預期的下降表明，企業對 2026 年上半年的前景愈發謹慎。</p>
<p>儘管日常商業條件沒有進一步惡化，但前瞻性情緒缺乏改善表明不確定性依然存在。</p>
<p>Ifo 的數據強調了在經歷了供應衝擊、通脹壓力以及國內外需求疲軟的多年後，信心尚未恢復。</p>
<p>這種悲觀情緒出現在這一年結束之際，這一年對希望實現決定性轉機的企業幾乎沒有提供任何安慰。</p>
<p>儘管最近幾個月有所穩定，但整體情緒依然脆弱，反映出對增長動能和政策方向的擔憂。</p>
<h2>調查信號混雜</h2>
<p>其他近期調查對德國經濟的狀態發出了相互矛盾的信息。</p>
<p>週二，標普全球的商業調查顯示，12 月份私營部門活動有所擴張，但增速低於經濟學家的預期。</p>
<p>相比之下，ZEW 研究所的數據則顯示經濟預期大幅改善，達到自 7 月以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>綜合來看，這些指標表明，儘管經濟的某些領域表現出韌性，但信心卻不均衡且遠未穩固。</p>
<p>調查之間的差異也突顯出對這些初步改善是否能夠持續到新年的不確定性。</p>
<h2>增長依然脆弱</h2>
<p>德國經濟仍在努力擺脱 2023 年和 2024 年國內生產總值收縮的低迷期。</p>
<p>該國在今年勉強避免再次陷入衰退，第三季度的產出停滯不前，此前三個月收縮了 0.2%。</p>
<p>疲弱的出口和低迷的家庭支出是 7 月至 9 月期間表現不佳的關鍵因素。</p>
<p>與此同時，德國仍然面臨更高的美國貿易關税和全球需求疲軟的壓力，進一步加大了其以出口為驅動的經濟模式的壓力。</p>
<p>德國脆弱的復甦在商業預期減弱時受到考驗，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>德國商業信心預計將在年末以較為疲軟的態勢收尾，儘管當前狀況穩定，但企業對未來的謹慎情緒加劇。Ifo 研究所的預期指數在 12 月份下降，表明持續的不確定性。調查信號的混雜和疲弱的增長凸顯了德國經濟面臨的挑戰，該經濟今年勉強避免了衰退。外部壓力和結構性問題繼續對信心造成影響</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251217_1534_German-Business-Confidence-Dip_simple_compose_01kcnw7bepepgrqwnc6s2d7zca.png"/></p>
<p>German business sentiment is set to end the year on a softer note, highlighting how difficult it remains for Europe’s largest economy to break free from a prolonged period of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國商業信心預計將在年末以較軟的姿態結束，突顯出歐洲最大經濟體在擺脱長期疲軟期方面的困難。</p>
</div><p>Fresh survey data suggest that companies are growing more cautious about what lies ahead, even as views on current conditions show little change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的調查數據顯示，儘管對當前狀況的看法變化不大，但企業對未來的預期變得更加謹慎。</p>
</div><p>The latest figures contribute to a mixed picture of Germany’s economy, which has struggled with sluggish growth, external pressures, and deep-seated structural issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新數據顯示，德國經濟的前景呈現出複雜的局面，經濟增長乏力、外部壓力以及深層次的結構性問題使其面臨挑戰。</p>
</div><p>With output barely avoiding recession this year, the focus is increasingly shifting to whether reforms and public spending plans can restore confidence among firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年的產出勉強避免衰退的情況下，焦點越來越轉向改革和公共支出計劃是否能夠恢復企業信心。</p>
</div><p>An expectations index published by the Ifo institute fell in December, pointing to a more downbeat mood among businesses looking ahead to the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ifo 研究所發佈的預期指數在 12 月份下降，顯示出企業對未來幾個月的情緒更加悲觀。</p>
</div><p>The survey, released on Wednesday, showed the index slipping to 89.7 from a revised 90.5 in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三發佈的調查顯示，該指數從修正後的 90.5 降至 89.7。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-ifo-business-climate-2025-12-17.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Ifo Institute</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Ifo 研究所</p>
</div><p>By contrast, a separate measure tracking companies’ assessment of current conditions remained unchanged, suggesting that the immediate situation has stabilised even as future prospects dim.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，另一項跟蹤企業對當前狀況評估的指標保持不變，這表明儘管未來前景黯淡，但當前的情況已趨於穩定。</p>
</div><h2>Expectations weaken</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預期減弱</h2>
</div><p>The drop in expectations signals that firms are increasingly cautious about the first half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預期的下降表明，企業對 2026 年上半年的前景愈發謹慎。</p>
</div><p>While day-to-day business conditions have not deteriorated further, the lack of improvement in forward-looking sentiment indicates persistent uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管日常商業條件沒有進一步惡化，但前瞻性情緒缺乏改善表明不確定性依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The Ifo data underline how confidence has yet to recover after years marked by supply shocks, inflation pressures, and weak demand at home and abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ifo 的數據強調了在經歷了供應衝擊、通脹壓力以及國內外需求疲軟的多年後，信心尚未恢復。</p>
</div><p>This pessimism comes at the end of a year that offered little reassurance for companies hoping for a decisive turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種悲觀情緒出現在這一年結束之際，這一年對希望實現決定性轉機的企業幾乎沒有提供任何安慰。</p>
</div><p>Despite some stabilisation in recent months, the overall mood remains fragile, reflecting concerns about growth momentum and policy direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管最近幾個月有所穩定，但整體情緒依然脆弱，反映出對增長動能和政策方向的擔憂。</p>
</div><h2>Mixed survey signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>調查信號混雜</h2>
</div><p>Other recent surveys have sent conflicting messages about the state of the German economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他近期調查對德國經濟的狀態發出了相互矛盾的信息。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, business surveys by S&amp;P Global pointed to private-sector activity expanding in December, but at a slower pace than economists had expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，標普全球的商業調查顯示，12 月份私營部門活動有所擴張，但增速低於經濟學家的預期。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, data from the ZEW institute showed a sharp improvement in economic expectations, reaching their highest level since July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，ZEW 研究所的數據則顯示經濟預期大幅改善，達到自 7 月以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these indicators suggest that while some segments of the economy are showing resilience, confidence is uneven and far from secure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，這些指標表明，儘管經濟的某些領域表現出韌性，但信心卻不均衡且遠未穩固。</p>
</div><p>The divergence between surveys also highlights uncertainty about whether tentative improvements can be sustained into the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>調查之間的差異也突顯出對這些初步改善是否能夠持續到新年的不確定性。</p>
</div><h2>Growth remains fragile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增長依然脆弱</h2>
</div><p>Germany’s economy is still struggling to emerge from a downturn that saw gross domestic product contract in both 2023 and 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國經濟仍在努力擺脱 2023 年和 2024 年國內生產總值收縮的低迷期。</p>
</div><p>The country narrowly avoided falling back into recession this year, with output stagnating in the third quarter after shrinking by 0.2% in the previous three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該國在今年勉強避免再次陷入衰退，第三季度的產出停滯不前，此前三個月收縮了 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Weak exports and subdued household spending were key factors behind the poor performance between July and September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的出口和低迷的家庭支出是 7 月至 9 月期間表現不佳的關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Germany remains exposed to higher US trade levies and softer global demand, adding to the pressure on its export-driven model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，德國仍然面臨更高的美國貿易關税和全球需求疲軟的壓力，進一步加大了其以出口為驅動的經濟模式的壓力。</p>
</div><p>The post Germany’s fragile recovery tested as business expectations weaken appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國脆弱的復甦在商業預期減弱時受到考驗，首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Germany’s fragile recovery tested as business expectations weaken

- 德國商業情緒在年底趨於疲軟，顯示經濟復甦艱難。
- Ifo 研究所的預期指數在 12 月下滑至 89.7，反映企業對未來的謹慎態度。
- 經濟增長仍脆弱，面對出口低迷和家庭消費疲軟的挑戰。

德國的脆弱復甦面臨考驗，因商業預期減弱