<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105/query-Zm09anBnJml4aWQ9TTN3eE1qQTNmREI4TUh4d2FHOTBieTF3WVdkbGZIeDhmR1Z1ZkRCOGZIeDhmQT09Jml4bGliPXJiLTQuMS4wJnE9NjAmdz0zMDAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="2000" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105/query-Zm09anBnJml4aWQ9TTN3eE1qQTNmREI4TUh4d2FHOTBieTF3WVdkbGZIeDhmR1Z1ZkRCOGZIeDhmQT09Jml4bGliPXJiLTQuMS4wJnE9NjAmdz0zMDAw"/></p>
<p>照片由 Mathieu Stern 提供於 Unsplash</p>
<p>隨着 Ifo 指數降至自五月以來的最低水平，德國經濟在又一個令人失望的年份末尾依然停滯不前。然而，儘管前景黯淡，週期性反彈的跡象開始顯現。</p>
<p>對於德國經濟而言，今年的結束與開始一樣：Ifo 指數的表現令人失望。</p>
<p>德國的領先指標在十二月為 87.6，低於十一月的 88.1。這是今年五月以來的最低水平。誠然，儘管今天有所下降，但絕對水平仍高於年初（當時為 85.1）。</p>
<p>雖然當前評估部分保持不變為 85.6，但預期下降至 89.7，也是自五月以來的最低水平。</p>
<h3><strong>感謝你們的無所作為</strong></h3>
<p>今年德國經濟經歷了一場情緒過山車，從樂觀轉向悲觀，最終政策制定者終於承認——在多年的否認之後——美好時代確實已經結束。</p>
<p>在財政刺激政策的急轉彎和新政府聯盟協議之後，德國的樂觀情緒迴歸，但由於對創造性預算會計的懷疑以及明顯缺乏結構性改革，進入了下半年的新一輪國家抑鬱。自 2022 年底以來，經濟實際上只有兩個季度實現了增長。</p>
<p>儘管如此，這一可怕的經濟表現至少有一個好處：在年末，似乎每個人終於明白，德國的經濟問題不僅僅是一些不幸情況的致命連鎖反應，而是多年投資不足、缺乏結構性改革以及中國從出口目的地轉變為系統競爭對手的結果。美國關税和歐元升值只加劇了這些問題，但並不是根本原因。</p>
<p>新政府決定加大基礎設施和國防投資僅僅是個開始。在某種程度上，這些投資，加上最近宣佈的工業能源價格補貼，都是恢復競爭力的最低限度。還需要更多。無論是眾所周知的減少繁文縟節、引入電子政務、掌握並降低人口老齡化的財務負擔，還是減税，德國總理弗里德里希·梅爾茨及其政府的 “待辦事項” 清單可能比普通孩子的聖誕願望清單還要長。</p>
<h3><strong>週期性反彈的初步跡象正在形成</strong></h3>
<p>雖然解決結構性挑戰並不容易——絕對不是快速的——但至少有一些初步跡象表明，明年可能會出現觸底反彈和一些週期性改善。工業訂單已經連續兩個月增加，庫存有所減少，產能利用率開始回升。誠然，所有這些跡象仍然非常初步和微弱。</p>
<p>再加上宣佈降低工業能源價格，至少可以預期工業活動的週期性反彈即將到來。最後，德國議會幾周前剛剛批准了 2026 年預算，並將在本週批准近 30 項總額約 500 億歐元的國防合同。財政刺激的影響將會到來；只是需要一些時間。</p>
<h3><strong>德國經濟應在 2026 年擺脱停滯</strong></h3>
<p>總的來説，遵循 “為最壞情況做準備並希望最好” 的原則，今天的 Ifo 指數讀數並不令人驚訝。相反，它符合我們的基本情景，即德國經濟將在又一個沒有增長的季度結束這一年。然而，有足夠的證據表明，德國經濟明年將擺脱停滯，儘管任何週期性反彈絕對不應被誤認為是結構性改善。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>歐洲央行預覽：為聖誕節回家</p>
<p>全球經濟正在升温，但廚房一片混亂</p>
<p>德國出口在十月停滯不前</p>

<p>12 月的 Ifo 指數降至 87.6，為自 5 月以來的最低水平，顯示出德國經濟的停滯。儘管如此，週期性反彈的跡象正在顯現，工業訂單增加，庫存減少。政府計劃進行基礎設施和國防投資，旨在恢復競爭力。儘管結構性挑戰依然存在，但預計明年將出現週期性改善，儘管不會發生結構性變化</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105/query-Zm09anBnJml4aWQ9TTN3eE1qQTNmREI4TUh4d2FHOTBieTF3WVdkbGZIeDhmR1Z1ZkRCOGZIeDhmQT09Jml4bGliPXJiLTQuMS4wJnE9NjAmdz0zMDAw" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1604594849809-dfedbc827105?fm=jpg&amp;q=60&amp;w=3000&amp;ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;ixid=M3wxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHx8fA%3D%3D"/></p>
<p>Photo by Mathieu Stern on Unsplash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>照片由 Mathieu Stern 提供於 Unsplash</p>
</div><p>With the Ifo index dropping to the lowest level since May, the German economy remains stuck in stagnation at the end of another disappointing year. Yet, despite the gloom, signs of a cyclical rebound are beginning to emerge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 Ifo 指數降至自五月以來的最低水平，德國經濟在又一個令人失望的年份末尾依然停滯不前。然而，儘管前景黯淡，週期性反彈的跡象開始顯現。</p>
</div><p>For the German economy, the year has ended as it started: with a disappointing Ifo index reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於德國經濟而言，今年的結束與開始一樣：Ifo 指數的表現令人失望。</p>
</div><p>Germany’s leading indicator came in at 87.6 in December, from 88.1 in November. This is the lowest level since May this year. Admittedly, despite today’s drop, the absolute level is still higher than at the start of the year (when it was 85.1).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國的領先指標在十二月為 87.6，低於十一月的 88.1。這是今年五月以來的最低水平。誠然，儘管今天有所下降，但絕對水平仍高於年初（當時為 85.1）。</p>
</div><p>While the current assessment component remained unchanged at 85.6, expectations weakened to 89.7, also the lowest level since May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然當前評估部分保持不變為 85.6，但預期下降至 89.7，也是自五月以來的最低水平。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Thanks for nothing</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>感謝你們的無所作為</strong></h3>
</div><p>The German economy has been on an emotional roller-coaster ride this year, swinging from optimism to pessimism, culminating in policymakers finally acknowledging – after years of denial – that the era of good times is truly over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年德國經濟經歷了一場情緒過山車，從樂觀轉向悲觀，最終政策制定者終於承認——在多年的否認之後——美好時代確實已經結束。</p>
</div><p>After the U-turn on fiscal stimulus and the new government coalition agreement, optimism returned to Germany, only to enter a new phase of national depression in the second half of the year due to doubts about creative budget accounting and a clear lack of structural reforms. Since the end of 2022, there have been only two quarters in which the economy actually grew.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財政刺激政策的急轉彎和新政府聯盟協議之後，德國的樂觀情緒迴歸，但由於對創造性預算會計的懷疑以及明顯缺乏結構性改革，進入了下半年的新一輪國家抑鬱。自 2022 年底以來，經濟實際上只有兩個季度實現了增長。</p>
</div><p>Still, this dreadful economic performance has at least one upside: at the end of the year, everyone seems to have finally understood that Germany’s economic problems are not just a fatal concatenation of unfortunate circumstances but rather the result of years of underinvestment, a lack of structural reforms and the rise of China from export destination to system rival. US tariffs and the stronger euro exchange have only aggravated the problems, but are not the root cause.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，這一可怕的經濟表現至少有一個好處：在年末，似乎每個人終於明白，德國的經濟問題不僅僅是一些不幸情況的致命連鎖反應，而是多年投資不足、缺乏結構性改革以及中國從出口目的地轉變為系統競爭對手的結果。美國關税和歐元升值只加劇了這些問題，但並不是根本原因。</p>
</div><p>The new government’s decision to ramp up infrastructure and defence investments is only the start. To some extent, these investments, together with the recently announced subsidies for industrial energy prices, are a bare minimum to restore competitiveness. More is needed. Whether it is the well-known reduction of red tape, the introduction of e-government, mastering and lowering the financial burden of demographics or tax cuts, the “to-do” list for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government is probably longer than an average child's Christmas wish list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新政府決定加大基礎設施和國防投資僅僅是個開始。在某種程度上，這些投資，加上最近宣佈的工業能源價格補貼，都是恢復競爭力的最低限度。還需要更多。無論是眾所周知的減少繁文縟節、引入電子政務、掌握並降低人口老齡化的財務負擔，還是減税，德國總理弗里德里希·梅爾茨及其政府的 “待辦事項” 清單可能比普通孩子的聖誕願望清單還要長。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tentative signs of a cyclical rebound in the making</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>週期性反彈的初步跡象正在形成</strong></h3>
</div><p>While it won’t be easy to solve the structural challenges – definitely not quickly – there are at least tentative signs of a bottoming out and some cyclical improvement in the next year. Industrial orders have now increased for two months in a row, inventories have come down somewhat, and capacity utilisation has started to turn. Admittedly, all of these signs are still very tentative and weak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然解決結構性挑戰並不容易——絕對不是快速的——但至少有一些初步跡象表明，明年可能會出現觸底反彈和一些週期性改善。工業訂單已經連續兩個月增加，庫存有所減少，產能利用率開始回升。誠然，所有這些跡象仍然非常初步和微弱。</p>
</div><p>Add to this the announced reduction of energy prices for industry, and at least a cyclical rebound in industrial activity should be in the making. Last but not least, the German parliament only signed off on the 2026 budget a few weeks ago and will approve almost 30 defence contracts amounting to some €50bn this week. The impact of fiscal stimulus will come; it only takes a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上宣佈降低工業能源價格，至少可以預期工業活動的週期性反彈即將到來。最後，德國議會幾周前剛剛批准了 2026 年預算，並將在本週批准近 30 項總額約 500 億歐元的國防合同。財政刺激的影響將會到來；只是需要一些時間。</p>
</div><h3><strong>German economy should leave stagnation behind in 2026</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>德國經濟應在 2026 年擺脱停滯</strong></h3>
</div><p>All in all, following the principle of 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best', today’s Ifo index reading doesn’t come as a surprise. To the contrary, it fits into our base case scenario that the German economy will end the year with yet another growthless quarter. However, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that the German economy will leave stagnation behind next year, even though any cyclical rebound should definitely not be mistaken for a structural improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，遵循 “為最壞情況做準備並希望最好” 的原則，今天的 Ifo 指數讀數並不令人驚訝。相反，它符合我們的基本情景，即德國經濟將在又一個沒有增長的季度結束這一年。然而，有足夠的證據表明，德國經濟明年將擺脱停滯，儘管任何週期性反彈絕對不應被誤認為是結構性改善。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>ECB Preview: Driving Home For Christmas</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐洲央行預覽：為聖誕節回家</p>
</div><p>The Global Economy Is Cooking, But The Kitchen’s In Chaos</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球經濟正在升温，但廚房一片混亂</p>
</div><p>German Exports Stagnate In October</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德國出口在十月停滯不前</p>
</div>

12 月的 Ifo 指數讓弗里德里希·梅爾茨的聖誕樹陷入困境