<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>英鎊/美元因英國 CPI 降至 3.2% 而下跌</strong></h3>
<p>英鎊/美元在英國通脹數據低於預期後下跌，這增強了市場對英國央行降息的預期，而美元則因投資者等待明天的美國通脹數據而上漲。</p>
<p>英鎊預計將迎來自 11 月初以來最大的一日跌幅，因為投資者加大了對英國央行本週降息的押注。11 月英國 CPI 降至 3.2%，為自 3 月以來的最低水平，低於 10 月的 3.6%。</p>
<p>本週早些時候的數據還顯示，英國勞動力市場正在放緩，失業率達到了自 2021 年以來的最高水平，私營部門工資增長在預算前的五年中最為疲軟。</p>
<p>通脹降温，加上工資增長放緩和預算的去通脹效應，意味着週四降息 25 個基點幾乎是板上釘釘的事。</p>
<p>市場還提高了對明年降息的預期，預計將有兩次降息完全定價，並有 72% 的機會出現第三次降息。</p>
<p>在數據公佈後，英國國債收益率下跌，導致英鎊走低。</p>
<p>與此同時，美元上漲，但仍接近自 10 月初以來的最低水平，該水平在週二達到。美元指數今年下跌約 9.5%，有望創下 2017 年以來最大年度跌幅。交易者期待週四的美國通脹數據，以獲取有關美聯儲下一步行動的更多線索，此前昨日的就業數據喜憂參半。</p>
<p>預計 11 月美國 CPI 將保持在 3% 的同比水平。如果 CPI 符合預期，美聯儲在接下來的幾次會議上將不會感受到降息的壓力。</p>
<p>你昨天看到了一些有趣的表格數據，顯示美國在 11 月新增了 64,000 個就業崗位，但失業率也上升至 4.6%。</p>
<h3><strong>英鎊/美元預測 - 技術分析</strong></h3>
<p>英鎊/美元從 11 月的 1.30 低點反彈，在 1.3455 遇到阻力後急劇回落。價格跌破 200 日均線，這與看跌吞沒蠟燭相結合，使賣方對進一步下跌充滿希望。</p>
<p>賣方將尋求在 200 日均線下方收盤，將下行延伸至 1.3250，即 50 日均線和水平支撐。若跌破此處，將使 1.32 和 8 月低點 1.3140 成為關注點。</p>
<p>買方需要突破 200 日均線和 1.3355 的水平阻力。若價格上漲至 1.3455 以上，將形成更高的高點，並將 1.35 納入關注範圍。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="964" height="605" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>油價因美委緊張局勢升級而飆升。</strong></h3>
<p>週三油價上漲 2%，因風險溢價上升和供應擔憂加劇，此前特朗普總統下令封鎖與委內瑞拉相關的受制裁油輪。這可能影響每天 59 萬桶的石油供應，其中大部分將運往中國。</p>
<p>此舉是在上週對委內瑞拉海岸的黑名單油輪進行扣押後，以及美國在該地區增派軍隊的背景下進行的。</p>
<p>不過，漲幅可能會受到限制，因為投資者繼續關注俄烏和平談判。對和平協議的樂觀情緒在最近幾次交易中使油價大幅下跌。達成協議可能會導致俄羅斯的限制放鬆，並在市場已經擔心明年供應過剩的情況下，油供應增加。</p>
<p>由於 OPEC+ 增加供應以擴大市場份額，以及中國作為最大石油進口國的需求疲軟跡象，油價全年下跌。</p>
<p>EIA 原油庫存數據將在今天晚些時候公佈。</p>
<h3><strong>油價預測 - 技術分析</strong></h3>
<p>自 7 月中旬以來，油價在一個下行通道內交易。價格在 60.00 遇到阻力後回落，並跌至 55.00，這是自 2021 年 5 月以來的最低水平。價格在此處找到支撐，並已恢復至更高水平，儘管目前下行趨勢仍然存在。</p>
<p>買方將尋求在 57.00 以上延續反彈，即 11 月高點，然後將 60.00 重新納入關注範圍，即 50 日均線、下行趨勢線阻力和整數關口。若價格上漲至此處以上，將形成更高的高點，使 62.50 成為關注點。</p>
<p>賣方將尋求跌破 55.00 以延續看跌趨勢，形成更低的低點，並將 50.00 整數關口納入關注範圍。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="966" height="607" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png"/></p>
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<p><em>更多來自此作者的內容：</em></p>
<p>關注的兩個交易：歐元/美元，油價預測 - 12 月 10 日，星期三</p>
<p>關注的兩個交易：美元/日元，DAX 預測 - 12 月 9 日，星期二</p>
<p>關注的兩個交易：DAX，英鎊/美元預測 - 12 月 4 日，星期四</p>

<p>英鎊/美元因英國通脹放緩而下跌，暗示英國央行可能降息。由於美國與委內瑞拉的緊張關係影響供應，油價上漲。英鎊/美元的技術分析顯示可能進一步下跌，而油價在 60.00 美元面臨阻力，買家則希望在 57.00 美元以上實現反彈</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>GBP/USD slumps as UK CPI cools to 3.2%</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>英鎊/美元因英國 CPI 降至 3.2% 而下跌</strong></h3>
</div><p>GBP/USD is falling after cooler-than-expected UK inflation data reinforced expectations of a BOE rate cut, while the US dollar rose as investors await US inflation data tomorrow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英鎊/美元在英國通脹數據低於預期後下跌，這增強了市場對英國央行降息的預期，而美元則因投資者等待明天的美國通脹數據而上漲。</p>
</div><p>Sterling is set for its largest one-day decline since early November as investors added to bets that the BOE will cut rates this week. UK CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY in November, its lowest level since March and down from 3.6% in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英鎊預計將迎來自 11 月初以來最大的一日跌幅，因為投資者加大了對英國央行本週降息的押注。11 月英國 CPI 降至 3.2%，為自 3 月以來的最低水平，低於 10 月的 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Data from earlier in the week also indicated that the UK labour market was softening, as the unemployment rate reached its highest level since 2021 and private-sector pay growth was the weakest in almost five years in the run-up to the budget.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週早些時候的數據還顯示，英國勞動力市場正在放緩，失業率達到了自 2021 年以來的最高水平，私營部門工資增長在預算前的五年中最為疲軟。</p>
</div><p>Cooler inflation, combined with easing wage growth and the disinflationary effects of the Budget, means a 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday is effectively a done deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹降温，加上工資增長放緩和預算的去通脹效應，意味着週四降息 25 個基點幾乎是板上釘釘的事。</p>
</div><p>The market has also lifted expectations for next year's rate cuts, with two fully priced in and a 72% chance of a third.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場還提高了對明年降息的預期，預計將有兩次降息完全定價，並有 72% 的機會出現第三次降息。</p>
</div><p>Gilt yields fell following the data, pulling GBP lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在數據公佈後，英國國債收益率下跌，導致英鎊走低。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the USD is rising but remains close to its lowest level since early October, which it reached on Tuesday. The US dollar index is down around 9.5% this year, on track for its steepest annual declines in 2017. Traders are looking ahead to US inflation data on Thursday for more clues over the Fed's next move following mixed jobs data yesterday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美元上漲，但仍接近自 10 月初以來的最低水平，該水平在週二達到。美元指數今年下跌約 9.5%，有望創下 2017 年以來最大年度跌幅。交易者期待週四的美國通脹數據，以獲取有關美聯儲下一步行動的更多線索，此前昨日的就業數據喜憂參半。</p>
</div><p>USCPI is expected to remain at 3% year-on-year in November. If CPI comes in line with expectations, the Fed will not feel the pressure to cut rates again in the next few meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計 11 月美國 CPI 將保持在 3% 的同比水平。如果 CPI 符合預期，美聯儲在接下來的幾次會議上將不會感受到降息的壓力。</p>
</div><p>You had some fun table data yesterday, showing the US added 64,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你昨天看到了一些有趣的表格數據，顯示美國在 11 月新增了 64,000 個就業崗位，但失業率也上升至 4.6%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>英鎊/美元預測 - 技術分析</strong></h3>
</div><p>GBP/USD recovered from the 1.30 November low, running into resistance at 1.3455 before rebounding sharply lower. The price broke below the 200 SMA, which, together with the bearish engulfing candle, keeps sellers hopeful of further declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英鎊/美元從 11 月的 1.30 低點反彈，在 1.3455 遇到阻力後急劇回落。價格跌破 200 日均線，這與看跌吞沒蠟燭相結合，使賣方對進一步下跌充滿希望。</p>
</div><p>Sellers will seek to settle below the 200 SMA, extending the move lower to 1.3250, the 50 SMA, and horizontal support. A break below here brings 1.32 into play and 1.3140, the August low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賣方將尋求在 200 日均線下方收盤，將下行延伸至 1.3250，即 50 日均線和水平支撐。若跌破此處，將使 1.32 和 8 月低點 1.3140 成為關注點。</p>
</div><p>Buyers would need to overcome the 200 SMA and the horizontal resistance at 1.3355. A rise above 1.3455 is needed to create a higher high and bring 1.35 into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>買方需要突破 200 日均線和 1.3355 的水平阻力。若價格上漲至 1.3455 以上，將形成更高的高點，並將 1.35 納入關注範圍。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122328-1.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Oil prices jump as U.S.- Venezuela tensions intensify.</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>油價因美委緊張局勢升級而飆升。</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oil has jumped2% on Wednesday, lifted by a rising risk premium and supply concerns after President Trump ordered the blockade of sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela. This could affect 590k barrels of oil supply a day, much of which is destined for China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三油價上漲 2%，因風險溢價上升和供應擔憂加劇，此前特朗普總統下令封鎖與委內瑞拉相關的受制裁油輪。這可能影響每天 59 萬桶的石油供應，其中大部分將運往中國。</p>
</div><p>The move follows the seizure of blacklisted oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela last week and an increase in US military personnel in the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此舉是在上週對委內瑞拉海岸的黑名單油輪進行扣押後，以及美國在該地區增派軍隊的背景下進行的。</p>
</div><p>Still, gains could be limited as investors continue to watch the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Optimism of a peace deal pulled oil prices sharply lower in recent sessions. An agreement could see Russian restrictions ease and oil supply rise at a time when the markets are already concerned about a supply glut next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，漲幅可能會受到限制，因為投資者繼續關注俄烏和平談判。對和平協議的樂觀情緒在最近幾次交易中使油價大幅下跌。達成協議可能會導致俄羅斯的限制放鬆，並在市場已經擔心明年供應過剩的情況下，油供應增加。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices have fallen throughout the year as OPEC+ has ramped up supply to increase market share and as signs of demand weakness emerge in China, the largest oil importer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於 OPEC+ 增加供應以擴大市場份額，以及中國作為最大石油進口國的需求疲軟跡象，油價全年下跌。</p>
</div><p>EIA crude oil inventory data is due later today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EIA 原油庫存數據將在今天晚些時候公佈。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Oil forecast- technical analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>油價預測 - 技術分析</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oil trades within a falling channel since mid-July. The price faced resistance at 60.00, rebounded lower, and dropped to 55.00, a level last seen in May 2021. The price found support here and has recovered to higher levels, although the downtrend remains intact for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 7 月中旬以來，油價在一個下行通道內交易。價格在 60.00 遇到阻力後回落，並跌至 55.00，這是自 2021 年 5 月以來的最低水平。價格在此處找到支撐，並已恢復至更高水平，儘管目前下行趨勢仍然存在。</p>
</div><p>Buyers will look to extend the recovery above 57.00, the November high, before bringing 60.00 back into focus, the 50 SMA, the falling trendline resistance, and the round number. A rise above here creates a higher high, bringing 62.50 into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>買方將尋求在 57.00 以上延續反彈，即 11 月高點，然後將 60.00 重新納入關注範圍，即 50 日均線、下行趨勢線阻力和整數關口。若價格上漲至此處以上，將形成更高的高點，使 62.50 成為關注點。</p>
</div><p>Sellers will look to break below 55.00 to extend the bearish trend, creating a lower low and bringing 50.00 round number into play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賣方將尋求跌破 55.00 以延續看跌趨勢，形成更低的低點，並將 50.00 整數關口納入關注範圍。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20251217122355-2.png"/></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的內容：</em></p>
</div><p>Two Trades To Watch: EUR/USD, Oil Forecast - Wednesday, Dec. 10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關注的兩個交易：歐元/美元，油價預測 - 12 月 10 日，星期三</p>
</div><p>Two Trades To Watch: USD/JPY, DAX Forecast - Tuesday, Dec. 9</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關注的兩個交易：美元/日元，DAX 預測 - 12 月 9 日，星期二</p>
</div><p>Two Trades To Watch: DAX, GBP/USD Forecast - Thursday, Dec. 4</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關注的兩個交易：DAX，英鎊/美元預測 - 12 月 4 日，星期四</p>
</div>

兩個值得關注的交易：英鎊兑美元，石油預測 - 星期三，12 月 17 日