<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="768" height="511" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf"/></p>
<p>委內瑞拉多年來一直在規避美國的石油出口禁令，主要以折扣價向中國出售原油（費德里科·帕拉）</p>
<p>專家表示，美國對委內瑞拉石油運輸的封鎖可能會削減該國最有價值商品的生產，並使出口減半，使其經濟進一步陷入危機。</p>
<p>美國總統唐納德·特朗普週二下令對委內瑞拉用於規避已實施六年的美國石油禁令的受制裁油輪實施&#34;全面封鎖&#34;。</p>
<p>這一聲明標誌着特朗普對委內瑞拉領導人尼古拉斯·馬杜羅的攻勢升級，馬杜羅最近兩次連任被國際社會廣泛指責為欺詐。</p>
<p>自九月份以來，美國在加勒比海建立了重要的海軍存在，並對數十艘涉嫌走私毒品的船隻發動了襲擊，造成至少 95 人遇難，包括漁民，依據他們的家屬和政府的説法。</p>
<p>馬杜羅聲稱，部署在其國家附近的軍隊是推翻他的計劃的一部分，並以反毒品行動的幌子&#34;竊取&#34;委內瑞拉的石油。</p>
<p>- 當前形勢如何？ -</p>
<p>委內瑞拉多年來一直在規避美國的石油出口禁令，主要以大幅折扣價向中國出售原油——特朗普聲稱這些收入用於資助&#34;毒品恐怖主義、人口販賣、謀殺和綁架。&#34;</p>
<p>根據石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的數據，該國的石油儲量估計約為 3030 億桶，超過任何其他國家。</p>
<p>但多年的管理不善和腐敗使得產量從 2000 年代初的超過 300 萬桶/日降至 2020 年的歷史低點 35 萬桶/日。</p>
<p>現在產量回升至約 100 萬桶/日——大約佔全球總量的 2%。</p>
<p>在美國總統下令之前，委內瑞拉的石油售價比市場價低 35%。德克薩斯州貝克研究所的經濟學家弗朗西斯科·莫納爾迪表示。</p>
<p>委內瑞拉國有石油公司 PDVSA 週三堅稱，出口&#34;正常進行&#34;，與 PDVSA 運營相關的油輪&#34;繼續安全航行&#34;。</p>
<p>上週，美國軍方扣押了一艘所謂的&#34;幽靈&#34;油輪 M/T Skipper，該油輪在違反美國製裁的情況下運輸超過一百萬桶委內瑞拉石油。</p>
<p>華盛頓誓言將保留這批貨物。</p>
<p>全球約有 600 艘油輪受到美國製裁，其中 23 艘被列入針對委內瑞拉的計劃，根據法新社對美國外國資產控制辦公室和國際海事組織的數據分析。</p>
<p>其中六艘在上週剛剛被制裁。</p>
<p>- 未來會怎樣？ -</p>
<p>卡拉卡斯現在可能面臨進一步降低黑市價格的壓力，即使全球原油價格在週三早些時候因美國封鎖而飆升。</p>
<p>&#34;每桶價格的折扣預計將加速，並可能阻止許多油輪前往委內瑞拉，&#34;莫納爾迪表示，預測&#34;將出現劇烈下降。&#34;</p>
<p>莫納爾迪預測，出口可能會減少一半，&#34;這取決於受制裁的油輪被扣押的頻率。&#34;</p>
<p>在 Skipper 被美國軍隊扣押後，PDVSA 在六天內無法裝載任何新油輪，議會消息人士在匿名的情況下告訴法新社。</p>
<p>&#34;這將造成嚴重問題，因為 PDVSA 最多隻有 15 天的儲存能力。&#34;</p>
<p>莫納爾迪表示，儲存石油成本高昂，&#34;最可能的結果是他們將關閉生產，產量可能下降約 40 萬桶/日。&#34;</p>
<p>- 客户情況如何？ -</p>
<p>特朗普的命令尚未影響雪佛龍向美國的運輸，雪佛龍在委內瑞拉以特殊許可證運營。</p>
<p>雪佛龍佔委內瑞拉產量的約 10%，但不再被允許向政府轉移資金，因此以原油支付税款和其他費用——進一步使卡拉卡斯缺乏急需的美元。</p>
<p>&#34;七月份授予雪佛龍的許可證允許其提取與 PDVSA 共同運營的合資企業生產的 50% 的石油，&#34;委內瑞拉 IESA 商學院的能源研究員奧斯瓦爾多·費利佐拉告訴法新社。</p>
<p>資本經濟預測公司週三指出，降低石油運輸&#34;將在不久的將來切斷委內瑞拉經濟的關鍵生命線。&#34;</p>
<p>經濟學家阿斯德魯巴爾·奧利維羅斯在委內瑞拉廣播中表示，向亞洲的出口下降可能使委內瑞拉每年損失數十億美元的收入。</p>
<p>中國接收了委內瑞拉 80% 的原油出口，將受到最大的影響。</p>
<p>afc/jt/atm/mlr/cb/jgc</p>

雪佛龍

<p>美國對委內瑞拉石油運輸的封鎖可能會削減該國的生產，並將其最有價值商品的出口減半，專家表示，這將使其經濟更加陷入危機。委內瑞拉商學院 IESA 的能源研究員 Oswaldo Felizzola 對法新社表示：“7 月份授予雪佛龍的許可證允許其獲取與 PDVSA 共同運營的合資企業生產的 50%。”</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/N_lzTisRaGHK1rE0hRTCwA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04MjY-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/df7b3ee4fd0c793dde886974a23091bf"/></p>
<p>Venezuela has been sidestepping a US oil export embargo for years, selling crude at a discounted price mainly to China (Federico PARRA)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委內瑞拉多年來一直在規避美國的石油出口禁令，主要以折扣價向中國出售原油（費德里科·帕拉）</p>
</div><p>A US blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments could slash production and halve exports of the country's most valuable commodity, tipping its economy even deeper into crisis, experts say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家表示，美國對委內瑞拉石油運輸的封鎖可能會削減該國最有價值商品的生產，並使出口減半，使其經濟進一步陷入危機。</p>
</div><p>US President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered a &#34;total and complete blockade&#34; of sanctioned oil tankers Venezuela has been using to bypass a six-year-old US oil embargo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國總統唐納德·特朗普週二下令對委內瑞拉用於規避已實施六年的美國石油禁令的受制裁油輪實施&#34;全面封鎖&#34;。</p>
</div><p>The announcement marked an escalation of Trump's offensive against Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, whose last two re-elections have been widely slammed by the international community as fraudulent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一聲明標誌着特朗普對委內瑞拉領導人尼古拉斯·馬杜羅的攻勢升級，馬杜羅最近兩次連任被國際社會廣泛指責為欺詐。</p>
</div><p>The United States has built up a major naval presence in the Caribbean Sea since September and launched strikes on dozens of alleged drug-smuggling boats, killing at least 95 people including fishermen, according to their families and governments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自九月份以來，美國在加勒比海建立了重要的海軍存在，並對數十艘涉嫌走私毒品的船隻發動了襲擊，造成至少 95 人遇難，包括漁民，依據他們的家屬和政府的説法。</p>
</div><p>Maduro claims the deployment within striking distance of his country is part of a plan to overthrow him and &#34;steal&#34; Venezuela's oil under the ruse of an anti-drug operation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬杜羅聲稱，部署在其國家附近的軍隊是推翻他的計劃的一部分，並以反毒品行動的幌子&#34;竊取&#34;委內瑞拉的石油。</p>
</div><p>- What is the state of affairs? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 當前形勢如何？ -</p>
</div><p>Venezuela has been sidestepping a US oil export embargo for years, selling crude at a heavily discounted price mainly to China -- income Trump claims is used to finance &#34;drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder and kidnapping.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委內瑞拉多年來一直在規避美國的石油出口禁令，主要以大幅折扣價向中國出售原油——特朗普聲稱這些收入用於資助&#34;毒品恐怖主義、人口販賣、謀殺和綁架。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The country is estimated to have oil reserves of some 303 billion barrels, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- more than any other nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的數據，該國的石油儲量估計約為 3030 億桶，超過任何其他國家。</p>
</div><p>But years of mismanagement and corruption slashed production from a peak of more than three million barrels per day (bpd) in the early 2000s to a historic low of 350,000 bpd by 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但多年的管理不善和腐敗使得產量從 2000 年代初的超過 300 萬桶/日降至 2020 年的歷史低點 35 萬桶/日。</p>
</div><p>It is now back to about one million bpd -- roughly two percent of the global total.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在產量回升至約 100 萬桶/日——大約佔全球總量的 2%。</p>
</div><p>Before the US president's order, Venezuela had been selling its oil at up to 35 percent below market price, according to Francisco Monaldi, an economist at the Baker Institute, a think tank in Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國總統下令之前，委內瑞拉的石油售價比市場價低 35%。德克薩斯州貝克研究所的經濟學家弗朗西斯科·莫納爾迪表示。</p>
</div><p>Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA insisted Wednesday that exports &#34;continue normally&#34; and &#34;oil tankers linked to PDVSA operations continue to sail with full security.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委內瑞拉國有石油公司 PDVSA 週三堅稱，出口&#34;正常進行&#34;，與 PDVSA 運營相關的油輪&#34;繼續安全航行&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Last week, the US military seized a so-called &#34;ghost&#34; tanker, M/T Skipper, transporting over a million barrels of Venezuelan oil in violation of US sanctions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，美國軍方扣押了一艘所謂的&#34;幽靈&#34;油輪 M/T Skipper，該油輪在違反美國製裁的情況下運輸超過一百萬桶委內瑞拉石油。</p>
</div><p>Washington vowed to keep the cargo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓誓言將保留這批貨物。</p>
</div><p>There are about 600 oil tankers under US sanctions globally, of which 23 are listed under programs targeting Venezuela, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control and the International Maritime Organization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球約有 600 艘油輪受到美國製裁，其中 23 艘被列入針對委內瑞拉的計劃，根據法新社對美國外國資產控制辦公室和國際海事組織的數據分析。</p>
</div><p>Of these, six were sanctioned just last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中六艘在上週剛剛被制裁。</p>
</div><p>- What about the future? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 未來會怎樣？ -</p>
</div><p>Caracas will likely now be under pressure to reduce its black market prices even further, even as global crude prices surged early Wednesday on the back of the US blockade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡拉卡斯現在可能面臨進一步降低黑市價格的壓力，即使全球原油價格在週三早些時候因美國封鎖而飆升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Discounts on the price per barrel are expected to accelerate and will likely deter many tankers from going to Venezuela,&#34; said Monaldi, predicting &#34;a dramatic decline.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;每桶價格的折扣預計將加速，並可能阻止許多油輪前往委內瑞拉，&#34;莫納爾迪表示，預測&#34;將出現劇烈下降。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Monaldi predicts exports may drop by as much as half, &#34;depending on how often sanctioned tankers...are seized.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫納爾迪預測，出口可能會減少一半，&#34;這取決於受制裁的油輪被扣押的頻率。&#34;</p>
</div><p>After The Skipper was taken by US forces, the PDVSA was unable to load any new tankers for six days, a parliamentary source told AFP on condition of anonymity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Skipper 被美國軍隊扣押後，PDVSA 在六天內無法裝載任何新油輪，議會消息人士在匿名的情況下告訴法新社。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That's going to create a serious problem because it (the PDVSA) has at most 15 days of storage capacity.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;這將造成嚴重問題，因為 PDVSA 最多隻有 15 天的儲存能力。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Monaldi said storing oil is expensive and &#34;the most likely outcome is that they'll shut down production, which could fall by roughly 400,000 barrels per day.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫納爾迪表示，儲存石油成本高昂，&#34;最可能的結果是他們將關閉生產，產量可能下降約 40 萬桶/日。&#34;</p>
</div><p>- What about the clients? -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 客户情況如何？ -</p>
</div><p>Trump's order has not yet affected shipments to the United States by Chevron, which operates in Venezuela under a special license.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的命令尚未影響雪佛龍向美國的運輸，雪佛龍在委內瑞拉以特殊許可證運營。</p>
</div><p>Chevron accounts for about 10 percent of Venezuelan production, but it is no longer allowed to transfer money to the government and therefore pays taxes and other dues in crude -- further starving Caracas of much-needed dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雪佛龍佔委內瑞拉產量的約 10%，但不再被允許向政府轉移資金，因此以原油支付税款和其他費用——進一步使卡拉卡斯缺乏急需的美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The license granted to Chevron in July allows it to take 50 percent of what is produced by the joint ventures it operates with PDVSA,&#34; Oswaldo Felizzola, a Venezuelan energy researcher with the IESA business school, told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;七月份授予雪佛龍的許可證允許其提取與 PDVSA 共同運營的合資企業生產的 50% 的石油，&#34;委內瑞拉 IESA 商學院的能源研究員奧斯瓦爾多·費利佐拉告訴法新社。</p>
</div><p>The Capital Economics forecasting firm noted Wednesday that lower oil shipments &#34;would cut off a key lifeline for Venezuela's economy&#34; in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資本經濟預測公司週三指出，降低石油運輸&#34;將在不久的將來切斷委內瑞拉經濟的關鍵生命線。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Economist Asdrubal Oliveros told Venezuelan radio a drop in exports to Asia could cost Venezuela billions of dollars in annual revenues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家阿斯德魯巴爾·奧利維羅斯在委內瑞拉廣播中表示，向亞洲的出口下降可能使委內瑞拉每年損失數十億美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>China, which receives 80 percent of Venezuelan crude exports, would be impacted most.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國接收了委內瑞拉 80% 的原油出口，將受到最大的影響。</p>
</div><p>afc/jt/atm/mlr/cb/jgc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>afc/jt/atm/mlr/cb/jgc</p>
</div>

在美國石油封鎖下，委內瑞拉的未來將如何發展？