<p>升級比特幣至更具量子抗性的網絡的緊迫性加劇。</p>
<p>考慮這一點——Solana 宣佈已在測試網部署了後量子簽名，表明其準備變得更加安全。甚至以太坊也有實現量子安全的路線圖。</p>
<p>儘管比特幣社區也在積極討論類似的提案，但人們對能否在量子威脅成為現實之前迅速實施這些提案存在一些懷疑。</p>
<p>然而，比特幣企業財庫的先驅邁克爾·塞勒並不分享這種緊迫感。事實上，他最近指出，量子計算將 “增強比特幣”，而不是破壞它。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<h2>塞勒引發混合反應</h2>
<p>對塞勒來説，大型科技公司會找到解決方案，並且在政府更新系統之前，不能讓量子技術進入主流。然而，大多數專家不同意他 “簡單化” 的觀點和漠不關心的態度。</p>
<p>Starknet 和 Zcash 的創始人埃利·本 - 薩松表示，塞勒的計劃在理論上可能可行，但由於達成共識的困難，在現實生活中並不實用。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“理論上同意。難道你不擔心代碼現在已經如此僵化，簡單的修復（如 op_cat）如此難以推動，以至於在實踐中根本無法實現嗎？”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Polygon 的前聯合創始人米哈伊洛·比耶利奇也表達了類似的顧慮，並指出，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“升級大約需要 2 年（如果所有常規交易停止，則約需 6 個月，這不現實）。而且這假設這個重大升級能夠順利進行，沒有爭議（這很難想象）。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>評估量子風險的可能性</h2>
<p>儘管谷歌在量子計算方面取得了突破，但該技術距離成為能夠破解比特幣網絡和錢包的真正威脅還有大約 5-15 年或更長時間。</p>
<p>查爾斯·愛德華茲，Capriole Investments 的創始人，表示到 2028-2030 年，比特幣被量子計算機破解的可能性為 34%-55%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>他補充説，如果升級未能實現，比特幣也將面臨類似的貶值風險。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“考慮到部署修復的時間為 2-3 年，這是當前的折扣率。而且這個折扣率在不斷增長。每。一天。都在增長。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>比特幣的安全性依賴於 ECDSA（橢圓曲線數字簽名算法）和 SHA-256（哈希機制）。前者可以很容易被破解，強大的量子計算機可以恢復公鑰和私鑰。</p>
<p>然而，專家指出，大多數舊格式地址（主要來自中本聰時代）現在面臨風險，而新的 Segwit 地址在一定程度上可以抵禦長距離量子攻擊。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>一些專家擔心比特幣可能錯過升級到量子安全網絡的機會。</em></li>
<li><em>中本聰時代和其他一些地址格式目前易受長距離量子攻擊的影響。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

MSTR

<p>升級比特幣以應對量子安全的緊迫性正在增加，Solana 和 Ethereum 正在取得進展。Michael Saylor 認為威脅被誇大，認為大型科技公司會在量子技術成為主流之前適應這一變化。專家 Eli Ben-Sasson 和 Mihailo Bjelic 對快速升級的可行性表示擔憂。Charles Edwards 估計到 2028-2030 年，比特幣被量子計算機破解的概率在 34% 到 55% 之間。比特幣的安全性依賴於 ECDSA 和 SHA-256，面臨風險，尤其是對於較舊的地址。升級到量子安全網絡的窗口可能正在關閉</p>

<p>The urgency to upgrade Bitcoin to a more quantum-proof network has intensified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>升級比特幣至更具量子抗性的網絡的緊迫性加劇。</p>
</div><p>Consider this – Solana announced that it has deployed post-quantum signatures on the testnet, indicating its readiness to be more secure. Even Ethereum has a roadmap for achieving quantum security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮這一點——Solana 宣佈已在測試網部署了後量子簽名，表明其準備變得更加安全。甚至以太坊也有實現量子安全的路線圖。</p>
</div><p>Although the Bitcoin community is also actively discussing similar proposals, there is some doubt whether they can be implemented quickly enough before the quantum threat becomes a reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管比特幣社區也在積極討論類似的提案，但人們對能否在量子威脅成為現實之前迅速實施這些提案存在一些懷疑。</p>
</div><p>However, Michael Saylor, the pioneer of BTC corporate treasury, doesn’t share a similar urgency. In fact, he recently noted that quantum computing will “harden BTC,” not break it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，比特幣企業財庫的先驅邁克爾·塞勒並不分享這種緊迫感。事實上，他最近指出，量子計算將 “增強比特幣”，而不是破壞它。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-17-150532.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><h2>Saylor elicits mixed reactions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>塞勒引發混合反應</h2>
</div><p>For Saylor, the big tech firms will figure it out and can’t let the quantum tech go mainstream before governments update their systems. However, most experts disagree with his “simplistic” view and nonchalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對塞勒來説，大型科技公司會找到解決方案，並且在政府更新系統之前，不能讓量子技術進入主流。然而，大多數專家不同意他 “簡單化” 的觀點和漠不關心的態度。</p>
</div><p>Eli Ben-Sasson, founder of Starknet and Zcash, said that Saylor’s plans may be workable in theory, but impractical in real life due to the difficulty of reaching consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Starknet 和 Zcash 的創始人埃利·本 - 薩松表示，塞勒的計劃在理論上可能可行，但由於達成共識的困難，在現實生活中並不實用。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Agree, in theory. Aren’t you worried code is by now so ossified, and simple fixes (like op_cat) so hard to push that in practice it just won’t happen?”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“理論上同意。難道你不擔心代碼現在已經如此僵化，簡單的修復（如 op_cat）如此難以推動，以至於在實踐中根本無法實現嗎？”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Mihailo Bjelic, a former co-founder of Polygon, also shared similar reservations and noted,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polygon 的前聯合創始人米哈伊洛·比耶利奇也表達了類似的顧慮，並指出，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The upgrade takes ~2 years (~6 months if all regular txs stop, which is unrealistic). And this is assuming this major upgrade goes through smoothly, without contention (which is hard to imagine).”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“升級大約需要 2 年（如果所有常規交易停止，則約需 6 個月，這不現實）。而且這假設這個重大升級能夠順利進行，沒有爭議（這很難想象）。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Assessing the odds of quantum risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>評估量子風險的可能性</h2>
</div><p>Despite Google’s breakthrough in quantum computing, the tech is about 5-15 years or more away from becoming a real threat capable of cracking the Bitcoin network and wallets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管谷歌在量子計算方面取得了突破，但該技術距離成為能夠破解比特幣網絡和錢包的真正威脅還有大約 5-15 年或更長時間。</p>
</div><p>For his part, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that there was a 34%-55% chance that BTC could be cracked by quantum computers by 2028-2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查爾斯·愛德華茲，Capriole Investments 的創始人，表示到 2028-2030 年，比特幣被量子計算機破解的可能性為 34%-55%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-risk-odds-1024x557.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>He added that Bitcoin will be devalued by similar odds if the upgrade doesn’t happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，如果升級未能實現，比特幣也將面臨類似的貶值風險。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Given a 2-3 yr timeline to deploy fix, this is the current discount rate. And it is growing. Every. Single. Day.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“考慮到部署修復的時間為 2-3 年，這是當前的折扣率。而且這個折扣率在不斷增長。每。一天。都在增長。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s security relies on ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) and SHA-256 (hashing mechanism). The former can easily be cracked, and both public and private keys can be retrieved with a powerful quantum computer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的安全性依賴於 ECDSA（橢圓曲線數字簽名算法）和 SHA-256（哈希機制）。前者可以很容易被破解，強大的量子計算機可以恢復公鑰和私鑰。</p>
</div><p>However, most old-format addresses (primarily from the Satoshi era) are now at risk, while new Segwit addresses are partially secure from long-range quantum attacks, according to experts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，專家指出，大多數舊格式地址（主要來自中本聰時代）現在面臨風險，而新的 Segwit 地址在一定程度上可以抵禦長距離量子攻擊。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-quantum-addresses.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Some experts are worried that Bitcoin may miss the window to upgrade to a quantum-secure network.</em></li>
<li><em>The Satoshi era and a few other address formats are currently vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>一些專家擔心比特幣可能錯過升級到量子安全網絡的機會。</em></li>
<li><em>中本聰時代和其他一些地址格式目前易受長距離量子攻擊的影響。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特幣的量子未來——儘管專家提出警告，Saylor 淡化了風險