<p><strong>Strategy (MSTR)</strong> – 前身為 MicroStrategy – 是一個無可爭議的成功案例。</p>
<p>該公司在 “比特幣儲備” 成為華爾街流行術語之前，就已經從一個小型軟件提供商轉變為比特幣持有公司。</p>
<p>該公司首次涉足加密貨幣是在 2020 年 8 月，以每個代幣 11,600 美元的價格購買了 2.5 億美元的比特幣。</p>
<p>在過去五年多的時間裏，儘管今年早些時候經歷了 63% 的回調，該股票的回報率仍超過了 1,000%。</p>
<h2>MicroStrategy 的崛起</h2>
<p>投資者紛紛湧入該公司，以便在他們的投資組合中增加有效的槓桿比特幣敞口。對加密貨幣日益增長的投資者興趣為該股票最終的滯後表現埋下了種子，因為持續的投資者興趣促使監管機構在 2024 年初批准了現貨比特幣 ETF。</p>
<p>隨着直接持有比特幣的 ETF 的到來，投資者開始質疑他們是否真的需要 Strategy 的 “比特幣敞口”。</p>
<p>畢竟，在 2024 年 11 月的高峰期，MSTR 的 “mNAV”（企業價值除以總比特幣儲備）為 3.14，這意味着股票的交易價格是比特幣持有價值的三倍多。</p>
<p>這是一種巨大的溢價（此後已消失；目前 mNAV 為 1.1），但投資案例可以説是合理的，儘管並不特別引人注目。</p>
<p>Strategy 能夠做到零售投資者永遠無法做到的事情。即，通過發行股票出售其投資組合的一部分，然後利用所得資金購買更多比特幣。</p>
<p>只要比特幣持續上漲，投資者的興趣保持強勁，股東們就可以合理地為獲得這種融資機制本身支付溢價（儘管可能不是那麼_高_的溢價）。</p>
<p>但在今年 7 月，這種動態發生了變化。</p>
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<h2>Strategy 的下滑</h2>
<p>比特幣的交易價格為 118,000 美元每個代幣，隨後創下新高，而 Strategy 所要求的溢價開始逐漸消失。</p>
<p>投資者不僅可以更輕鬆地自行將加密貨幣添加到他們的投資組合中，而且 Strategy 開始提供新的證券類別，如優先股 <strong>STRC</strong>，由於支付股息，這意味着 Strategy 不再將每一分錢都用於 “堆疊 Sats”（Satoshis：比特幣的最小單位，等於一億分之一；以創造者中本聰的名字命名）——相反，它現在有義務支付優先股息，這當然增加了普通股東的成本。</p>
<p>與公司之前的低成本債務發行不同，這些債務主要只是增加了股東稀釋的風險（Strategy 目前有 82 億美元的未償債務，其中大部分是 0.00% 票息的可轉換債務；所有未償債務的平均票息為 0.421%），這些永久優先股的收益率高達 8% 至 10.75%。</p>
<p>就投資者而言，實際的支付金額（每年約 7 億美元）比戰略轉變的重要性要小。</p>
<p>Strategy 的飛速發展源於一些巧妙的金融工程和其對比特幣的買入和持有承諾，無論發生什麼。</p>
<p>當公司開始發行優先股時，它犧牲了後者以換取前者。</p>
<p>股價暴跌，從 7 月 16 日的歷史最高收盤價 456 跌至今天的 164。</p>
<p>除此之外，該公司現在還面臨來自 MSCI 的威脅，可能會在 2026 年 2 月開始將數字資產國庫公司（如 Strategy；數字資產超過其總資產 50% 的公司）排除在 MSCI 全球可投資市場指數之外。</p>
<p>股票將繼續在交易所正常交易，但將被排除在任何明確投資於 MSCI USA 和 MSCI World 指數中公司的 ETF 之外。</p>
<p>根據 Yahoo！的報道，摩根大通估計這可能會引發 88 億美元的資金流出。</p>
<p>那麼，投資者該怎麼辦？</p>
<h2>現在應該購買 Strategy (MSTR) 嗎？</h2>
<p>指數排除的風險是真實且顯著的，這是一種與比特幣本身表現無關的不對稱風險。</p>
<p>MSTR 長期以來的交易價格與公司持有的價值脱鈎（向上），沒有理由它們不能以顯著低於其比特幣持有價值的價格交易。</p>
<p>如果你考慮開始持有，可能想等到明年初 MSCI 的決定再重新評估（如果你仍然想投資 MSTR，若 MSCI 決定不包括它們，股票可能會以折扣價出售）。</p>
<p>如果你已經投資於 MSTR，可能想考慮將部分或全部資金重新分配到簡單的比特幣 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)</strong>，以保持比特幣敞口，同時消除 MSTR 帶來的某些公司特定風險。</p>
<p>最後，我不得不提到，MSTR 所採用的（通過其融資機制獲得的槓桿比特幣敞口）可能再次對他們有效，但我預計這種情況只會在更為樂觀的加密牛市中出現。</p>
<p>換句話説，MSTR 並不是一個永久的避開對象，但只有在公司克服其立即的 MSCI 相關障礙並在更有利的市場中時，你才應該考慮轉向它。</p>
<p>[author_ad]</p>

MSTR

<p>Strategy (MSTR)，前身為 MicroStrategy，已從軟件供應商轉型為比特幣持有公司，自 2020 年以來實現了超過 1000% 的股票回報。然而，比特幣 ETF 的推出和新的優先股發行導致其股價下跌。該公司面臨被 MSCI 指數排除的潛在風險，可能導致 88 億美元的資金流出。建議投資者考慮重新配置到比特幣 ETF，以降低公司特定風險，同時等待 MSCI 在 2026 年的決定</p>

<p><strong>Strategy (MSTR)</strong>– formerly known as MicroStrategy – has been an unquestionable success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Strategy (MSTR)</strong> – 前身為 MicroStrategy – 是一個無可爭議的成功案例。</p>
</div><p>The company pivoted from being a small software provider to a Bitcoin holding company long before “Bitcoin reserves” started becoming a popular term on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司在 “比特幣儲備” 成為華爾街流行術語之前，就已經從一個小型軟件提供商轉變為比特幣持有公司。</p>
</div><p>The company’s first foray into cryptocurrencies was a buy of $250 million in Bitcoin at $11,600 per token all the way back in August of 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司首次涉足加密貨幣是在 2020 年 8 月，以每個代幣 11,600 美元的價格購買了 2.5 億美元的比特幣。</p>
</div><p>In the intervening five-plus years, the stock has returned more than 1,000%, even after a 63% drawdown from all-time highs set earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年多的時間裏，儘管今年早些時候經歷了 63% 的回調，該股票的回報率仍超過了 1,000%。</p>
</div><h2>The Rise of MicroStrategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>MicroStrategy 的崛起</h2>
</div><p>Investors piled into the company as a way to add what was effectively leveraged Bitcoin exposure to their portfolios. And that growing investor interest in cryptocurrency planted the seeds of the stock’s eventual lagging performance as sustained investor interest prompted regulators to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者紛紛湧入該公司，以便在他們的投資組合中增加有效的槓桿比特幣敞口。對加密貨幣日益增長的投資者興趣為該股票最終的滯後表現埋下了種子，因為持續的投資者興趣促使監管機構在 2024 年初批准了現貨比特幣 ETF。</p>
</div><p>With the arrival of ETFs that held Bitcoin directly, investors were left questioning whether they wanted Strategy’s “flavor” of Bitcoin exposure at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着直接持有比特幣的 ETF 的到來，投資者開始質疑他們是否真的需要 Strategy 的 “比特幣敞口”。</p>
</div><p>After all, at its peak in November 2024, MSTR was trading at an “mNAV” (Enterprise Value divided by the total Bitcoin reserves) of 3.14, meaning the shares were trading for more than triple what the Bitcoin holdings were actually worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>畢竟，在 2024 年 11 月的高峰期，MSTR 的 “mNAV”（企業價值除以總比特幣儲備）為 3.14，這意味着股票的交易價格是比特幣持有價值的三倍多。</p>
</div><p>That’s a massive premium (which has since evaporated; mNAV is currently 1.1), but the investing case was arguable, although not particularly compelling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一種巨大的溢價（此後已消失；目前 mNAV 為 1.1），但投資案例可以説是合理的，儘管並不特別引人注目。</p>
</div><p>Strategy had the ability to do what retail investors never could. Namely, sell a stake in its portfolio by issuing shares and then use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 能夠做到零售投資者永遠無法做到的事情。即，通過發行股票出售其投資組合的一部分，然後利用所得資金購買更多比特幣。</p>
</div><p>As long as Bitcoin kept rising and investor interest remained strong, shareholders could justify paying apremium (though perhaps not that <em>much</em> of a premium) for access to the fundraising mechanism itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要比特幣持續上漲，投資者的興趣保持強勁，股東們就可以合理地為獲得這種融資機制本身支付溢價（儘管可能不是那麼_高_的溢價）。</p>
</div><p>But in July of this year, that dynamic shifted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在今年 7 月，這種動態發生了變化。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><h2>The Fall of Strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Strategy 的下滑</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin, which was trading for $118,000 per token, would go on to set new highs as Strategy saw the premium it demanded begin to slip away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的交易價格為 118,000 美元每個代幣，隨後創下新高，而 Strategy 所要求的溢價開始逐漸消失。</p>
</div><p>Not only could investors more easily add crypto to their portfolios on their own, but Strategy began offering new classes of securities, like the preferred stock <strong>STRC</strong>, which, by virtue of paying out dividends, meant that Strategy was no longer using every penny it took in to “stack Sats” (Satoshis: one-hundred-millionth of a Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency’s smallest unit of account; named after the creator Satoshi Nakamoto)—instead, it would now be obligated to pay out preferred dividends, which of course adds costs to common shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者不僅可以更輕鬆地自行將加密貨幣添加到他們的投資組合中，而且 Strategy 開始提供新的證券類別，如優先股 <strong>STRC</strong>，由於支付股息，這意味着 Strategy 不再將每一分錢都用於 “堆疊 Sats”（Satoshis：比特幣的最小單位，等於一億分之一；以創造者中本聰的名字命名）——相反，它現在有義務支付優先股息，這當然增加了普通股東的成本。</p>
</div><p>Unlike the company’s previous low-cost debt offerings, which mostly just raised the risk of shareholder dilution (Strategy currently has $8.2 billion of debt outstanding, the majority of which is 0.00%-coupon convertible debt; the average coupon for all outstanding debt is 0.421%), these perpetual preferreds pay out hefty 8% to 10.75% yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與公司之前的低成本債務發行不同，這些債務主要只是增加了股東稀釋的風險（Strategy 目前有 82 億美元的未償債務，其中大部分是 0.00% 票息的可轉換債務；所有未償債務的平均票息為 0.421%），這些永久優先股的收益率高達 8% 至 10.75%。</p>
</div><p>The actual dollar amounts of the payouts (about $700 million a year) were less significant than the strategy shift, at least as far as investors were concerned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就投資者而言，實際的支付金額（每年約 7 億美元）比戰略轉變的重要性要小。</p>
</div><p>Strategy had skyrocketed on a combination of a bit of clever financial engineering and its commitment to buy and hold Bitcoin, come what may.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的飛速發展源於一些巧妙的金融工程和其對比特幣的買入和持有承諾，無論發生什麼。</p>
</div><p>When the company began issuing preferreds, it sacrificed the latter in favor of the former.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當公司開始發行優先股時，它犧牲了後者以換取前者。</p>
</div><p>And the share price plummeted, falling from an all-time closing high of 456 on July 16 to 164 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股價暴跌，從 7 月 16 日的歷史最高收盤價 456 跌至今天的 164。</p>
</div><p>On top of all that, the company is now contending with threats from MSCI to exclude digital asset treasury companies (like Strategy; companies whose digital assets exceed more than 50% of their total assets) from MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes starting in February 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，該公司現在還面臨來自 MSCI 的威脅，可能會在 2026 年 2 月開始將數字資產國庫公司（如 Strategy；數字資產超過其總資產 50% 的公司）排除在 MSCI 全球可投資市場指數之外。</p>
</div><p>Shares would continue to trade on exchanges normally, but they’d be omitted from any ETF that explicitly invests in companies included in the MSCI USA and MSCI World Indexes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票將繼續在交易所正常交易，但將被排除在任何明確投資於 MSCI USA 和 MSCI World 指數中公司的 ETF 之外。</p>
</div><p>Per reporting from Yahoo!, JPMorgan estimates that could trigger $8.8 billion in outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Yahoo！的報道，摩根大通估計這可能會引發 88 億美元的資金流出。</p>
</div><p>So, what’s an investor to do?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，投資者該怎麼辦？</p>
</div><h2>Should You Buy Strategy (MSTR) Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在應該購買 Strategy (MSTR) 嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The risk of index omission is real and significant, and it’s an asymmetric risk that is unrelated to the performance of Bitcoin itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指數排除的風險是真實且顯著的，這是一種與比特幣本身表現無關的不對稱風險。</p>
</div><p>MSTR has long traded at prices that are untethered to the value of the company’s holdings (to the upside), and there’s no reason they couldn’t trade at a significant discount to their Bitcoin holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSTR 長期以來的交易價格與公司持有的價值脱鈎（向上），沒有理由它們不能以顯著低於其比特幣持有價值的價格交易。</p>
</div><p>If you’re considering starting a position, you may want to wait for a decision from MSCI early next year to reassess (if you still want to invest in MSTR, shares will probably be available at a discount should MSCI decide against them).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你考慮開始持有，可能想等到明年初 MSCI 的決定再重新評估（如果你仍然想投資 MSTR，若 MSCI 決定不包括它們，股票可能會以折扣價出售）。</p>
</div><p>If you’re already invested in MSTR, you may want to consider reallocating some or all of that to a simple Bitcoin ETF like the <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)</strong> in order to maintain Bitcoin exposure while eliminating some of the company-specific risk that MSTR introduces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你已經投資於 MSTR，可能想考慮將部分或全部資金重新分配到簡單的比特幣 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)</strong>，以保持比特幣敞口，同時消除 MSTR 帶來的某些公司特定風險。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, I’d be remiss not to mention that what has worked for MSTR (leveraged Bitcoin exposure by virtue of their fundraising mechanism) could work for them again, but I’d expect that to be the case only in a more exuberant crypto bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，我不得不提到，MSTR 所採用的（通過其融資機制獲得的槓桿比特幣敞口）可能再次對他們有效，但我預計這種情況只會在更為樂觀的加密牛市中出現。</p>
</div><p>In other words, MSTR isn’t a permanent stay-away, but it’s something you should consider pivoting into only should the company clear its immediate MSCI-related hurdle and in a more supportive market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，MSTR 並不是一個永久的避開對象，但只有在公司克服其立即的 MSCI 相關障礙並在更有利的市場中時，你才應該考慮轉向它。</p>
</div><p>[author_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[author_ad]</p>
</div>

是否有理由購買 Strategy (MSTR)？