<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>由於美國通脹數據低於預期，黃金價格收窄了當天早些時候的跌幅，市場對美聯儲明年降息的希望增強。</p>
<p>銀價大幅下跌，因為投資者在金屬價格突破每盎司 66 美元的歷史高位後選擇獲利了結。</p>
<p>與此同時，油價上漲，因對供應減少的擔憂提升了投資者的情緒。</p>
<p>此外，基本金屬價格也因市場對美聯儲在 2026 年進一步降息的預期而上漲。</p>
<h2>黃金穩定</h2>
<p>儘管黃金價格受到未來降息預期和持續的宏觀經濟不確定性支持，但其高估值和地面黃金的現有庫存量表明，採取更謹慎的風險策略是明智的。</p>
<p>根據最近發佈的數據，美國 11 月份消費者價格同比上漲 2.7%。</p>
<p>這一數據低於路透社調查的經濟學家預測的 3.1% 的增幅。</p>
<p>在這一數據發佈後，聯邦基金利率期貨顯示，美聯儲在 1 月份會議上降息的概率略有上升。</p>
<p>Trade Nation 的高級市場分析師 David Morrison 表示：“黃金可能需要更長時間的整合，可能在較低水平上，以便 MACD 回調並重置到可以開始大幅反彈的水平。”</p>
<p>截至撰寫時，COMEX 黃金合約報每盎司 4,368.80 美元，與前一交易日基本持平。</p>
<p>與此同時，COMEX 上的銀價下跌 1.8%，報每盎司 65.693 美元。</p>
<p>Morrison 表示：“交易者是否終於對進一步推高價格感到謹慎？還是這只是銀價大幅上漲後急需的喘息暫停？”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>這兩種解讀都有可能，但哪種更可能？冒着聽起來像是劃傷的唱片的風險（還記得它們嗎？），日 MACD 顯著超買。這表明，無論是看漲還是看跌，接近銀價時都應非常謹慎。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>油價上漲</h2>
<p>週四，油價上漲，投資者評估美國可能對俄羅斯實施更多制裁的潛力，以及因委內瑞拉油輪封鎖而引發的供應擔憂。</p>
<p>美國計劃對往返於委內瑞拉的受制裁油輪實施封鎖，這一舉措由特朗普總統宣佈，引發了對委內瑞拉石油出口未來的擔憂。</p>
<p>ING 集團商品策略負責人 Warren Patterson 在一份報告中表示：“這將使約 60 萬桶/日的石油出口面臨風險，其中大部分流向中國。”</p>
<p>“然而，流向美國的石油，目前約為 16 萬桶/日（160,000 桶/日），可能會繼續。”</p>
<p>此前獲得美國政府許可在委內瑞拉繼續運營的 Chevron 是這一石油的來源。</p>
<p>Patterson 表示：“關鍵問題是，首先，這一封鎖的有效性如何，其次，它將持續多久。這將對油市的影響至關重要。”</p>
<p>在週三的報告顯示美國政府計劃對俄羅斯能源部門實施更嚴格的制裁後，市場的供應風險加劇。</p>
<p>這一風險的增加取決於普京總統是否與烏克蘭達成和平協議。</p>
<p>Patterson 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>鑑於供應過剩的前景和布倫特原油交易在每桶 60 美元左右，特朗普有更多空間對制裁採取更激進的措施。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>基本金屬</h2>
<p>今晨基本金屬交易表現謹慎，受到全球宏觀指標不確定性、美元在近期反彈後的穩定以及影響關鍵行業的市場特定消息的驅動。</p>
<p>FCA 監管的多資產經紀公司 Britannia Global Markets 的金屬負責人 Neil Welsh 表示，脆弱的風險情緒源於美國科技股的近期波動，正引導交易者關注即將發佈的通脹數據和中央銀行的聲明。</p>
<p>儘管從上週的歷史高位回落，銅價仍然處於歷史高位。</p>
<p>這一持續水平源於今年三分之一的反彈，受到礦山中斷、強勁需求和能源轉型持續敍事的推動。</p>
<p>Welsh 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>最近的回調以及美元略微走強和股市風險偏好減弱，突顯了銅價對短期宏觀波動的敏感性，即使結構性基本面依然緊張。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>鋁和鋅目前也在下跌，反映了銅的趨勢。然而，技術支撐水平仍然相關，尤其是在鋅最近從關鍵價格點恢復之後。</p>
<p>截至撰寫時，倫敦金屬交易所三個月期銅合約報每噸 11,764.15 美元，較前一交易日上漲 0.3%。鋁合約報每噸 2,914.75 美元，漲幅為 0.4%。</p>
<p>商品綜述：黃金因降息預期保持穩定，油價因制裁擔憂上漲，首發於 Invezz。</p>

國民油井華高

<p>黃金價格因美國通脹數據疲軟而對美聯儲降息的預期保持穩定，而銀價因投資者獲利了結而下跌。由於對美國對委內瑞拉和俄羅斯制裁的擔憂，油價上漲，影響了供應。基本金屬因預期美國降息而上漲。美國 11 月份消費者價格上漲 2.7%，低於預期。分析師建議在黃金和白銀交易中保持謹慎，因為估值較高且超買指標明顯。儘管近期回調，銅價仍然保持在高位，而鋁和鋅則出現下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AI-generated-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>Gold prices pared losses from earlier in the day as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於美國通脹數據低於預期，黃金價格收窄了當天早些時候的跌幅，市場對美聯儲明年降息的希望增強。</p>
</div><p>Silver prices fell sharply as investors booked profits after the metal had hit record highs above $66 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀價大幅下跌，因為投資者在金屬價格突破每盎司 66 美元的歷史高位後選擇獲利了結。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, oil prices rose as concerns about lower supply boosted sentiments among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，油價上漲，因對供應減少的擔憂提升了投資者的情緒。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, base metal prices also climbed on anticipation over further interest rate cuts by the US Fed in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，基本金屬價格也因市場對美聯儲在 2026 年進一步降息的預期而上漲。</p>
</div><h2>Gold steady</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金穩定</h2>
</div><p>While gold’s price is supported by the expectation of eventual interest rate cuts and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, its high valuation and large existing inventories of above-ground gold suggest a more cautious strategy for taking on additional risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管黃金價格受到未來降息預期和持續的宏觀經濟不確定性支持，但其高估值和地面黃金的現有庫存量表明，採取更謹慎的風險策略是明智的。</p>
</div><p>US consumer prices in November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, according to recently released data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據最近發佈的數據，美國 11 月份消費者價格同比上漲 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>This figure was lower than the 3.1% rise that economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一數據低於路透社調查的經濟學家預測的 3.1% 的增幅。</p>
</div><p>Following the release of this data, futures on the federal funds rate indicated a marginally higher probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during its January meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這一數據發佈後，聯邦基金利率期貨顯示，美聯儲在 1 月份會議上降息的概率略有上升。</p>
</div><p>“Gold may need a longer period of consolidation, possibly at lower levels, for the MACD to pull back and reset to levels from which a substantial rally can begin,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Trade Nation 的高級市場分析師 David Morrison 表示：“黃金可能需要更長時間的整合，可能在較低水平上，以便 MACD 回調並重置到可以開始大幅反彈的水平。”</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $4,368.80 per ounce, largely unchanged from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，COMEX 黃金合約報每盎司 4,368.80 美元，與前一交易日基本持平。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, silver prices on COMEX were 1.8% lower at $65.693 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，COMEX 上的銀價下跌 1.8%，報每盎司 65.693 美元。</p>
</div><p>“Could traders finally be wary of pushing prices up further? Or is this simply a much-needed breath-taking pause after silver’s terrific rally?,” Morrison said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Morrison 表示：“交易者是否終於對進一步推高價格感到謹慎？還是這只是銀價大幅上漲後急需的喘息暫停？”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Either interpretation is possible, but which is more likely? At the risk of sounding like a scratched record (remember them?), the daily MACD is significantly overbought. That would suggest approaching silver with great caution, whether a bull or a bear.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>這兩種解讀都有可能，但哪種更可能？冒着聽起來像是劃傷的唱片的風險（還記得它們嗎？），日 MACD 顯著超買。這表明，無論是看漲還是看跌，接近銀價時都應非常謹慎。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Oil rises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油價上漲</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors assessed the potential for more US sanctions targeting Russia, and supply concerns stemming from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，油價上漲，投資者評估美國可能對俄羅斯實施更多制裁的潛力，以及因委內瑞拉油輪封鎖而引發的供應擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The US intends to impose a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers travelling to and from Venezuela, a move announced by President Trump that has raised concerns about the future of Venezuelan oil exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國計劃對往返於委內瑞拉的受制裁油輪實施封鎖，這一舉措由特朗普總統宣佈，引發了對委內瑞拉石油出口未來的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>“This puts at risk around 600k b/d of oil exports, the majority of which goes to China,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 集團商品策略負責人 Warren Patterson 在一份報告中表示：“這將使約 60 萬桶/日的石油出口面臨風險，其中大部分流向中國。”</p>
</div><p>“However, flows to the US, currently around 160k b/d (160,000 barrels per day), will likely continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，流向美國的石油，目前約為 16 萬桶/日（160,000 桶/日），可能會繼續。”</p>
</div><p>Chevron, which previously obtained a license from the US government to continue its operations in Venezuela, is the source of this oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前獲得美國政府許可在委內瑞拉繼續運營的 Chevron 是這一石油的來源。</p>
</div><p>“The key questions are, first, how effective this blockade will be, and second, how long it will last. This will be important in determining the impact on the oil market,” Patterson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Patterson 表示：“關鍵問題是，首先，這一封鎖的有效性如何，其次，它將持續多久。這將對油市的影響至關重要。”</p>
</div><p>Supply risk in the market is heightened following Wednesday’s reports that the US government is planning to impose even more stringent sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週三的報告顯示美國政府計劃對俄羅斯能源部門實施更嚴格的制裁後，市場的供應風險加劇。</p>
</div><p>This increased risk is dependent on President Putin not reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一風險的增加取決於普京總統是否與烏克蘭達成和平協議。</p>
</div><p>Patterson said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Patterson 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Given the surplus outlook and Brent trading around $60/bbl, Trump has room to be more aggressive with sanctions.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>鑑於供應過剩的前景和布倫特原油交易在每桶 60 美元左右，特朗普有更多空間對制裁採取更激進的措施。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Base metals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本金屬</h2>
</div><p>Base metal trading is characterised by caution this morning, driven by a blend of uncertain global macro indicators, a stable dollar following its recent rally, and market-specific news affecting key sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今晨基本金屬交易表現謹慎，受到全球宏觀指標不確定性、美元在近期反彈後的穩定以及影響關鍵行業的市場特定消息的驅動。</p>
</div><p>Fragile risk sentiment, stemming from the recent volatility in US tech stocks, is directing traders’ attention towards upcoming inflation figures and central bank statements, according to Neil Welsh, head of metals at FCA-regulated multi-asset brokerage Britannia Global Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FCA 監管的多資產經紀公司 Britannia Global Markets 的金屬負責人 Neil Welsh 表示，脆弱的風險情緒源於美國科技股的近期波動，正引導交易者關注即將發佈的通脹數據和中央銀行的聲明。</p>
</div><p>Despite pulling back from last week’s record high, copper prices remain historically elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管從上週的歷史高位回落，銅價仍然處於歷史高位。</p>
</div><p>This sustained level follows a one-third rally this year, fueled by mine disruptions, strong demand, and the continuing narrative around the energy transition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一持續水平源於今年三分之一的反彈，受到礦山中斷、強勁需求和能源轉型持續敍事的推動。</p>
</div><p>Welsh said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Welsh 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The recent retreat alongside a modestly firmer dollar and weaker risk appetite in equities highlights how sensitive the metal (copper) remains to short term macro swings even as structural fundamentals stay tight.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>最近的回調以及美元略微走強和股市風險偏好減弱，突顯了銅價對短期宏觀波動的敏感性，即使結構性基本面依然緊張。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Aluminium and zinc are currently declining, mirroring the trend in copper. However, technical support levels remain relevant, especially following zinc’s recent recovery from critical price points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁和鋅目前也在下跌，反映了銅的趨勢。然而，技術支撐水平仍然相關，尤其是在鋅最近從關鍵價格點恢復之後。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $11,764.15 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous close. The aluminium contract was $2,914.75 per ton, up 0.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，倫敦金屬交易所三個月期銅合約報每噸 11,764.15 美元，較前一交易日上漲 0.3%。鋁合約報每噸 2,914.75 美元，漲幅為 0.4%。</p>
</div><p>The post Commodity wrap: gold steady on rate cut hopes, oil rises on sanction fears appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品綜述：黃金因降息預期保持穩定，油價因制裁擔憂上漲，首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

商品綜述：由於降息的預期，黃金價格保持穩定，而由於對制裁的擔憂，油價上漲