<p>作者：Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<p>“再退休” 現象能告訴我們關於就業市場的什麼</p>
<p>如今，經濟學家們在勞動力市場方面感到困惑。</p>
<p>首先，九月份的月度就業報告晚了一個月發佈，而十月份的報告則完全取消。此外，現有的數據也發出了混合信號。新增就業崗位的數量已經減緩到幾乎停滯的狀態。但失業率在歷史標準下仍然保持較低水平。職位空缺和員工辭職率——分別衡量找工作有多容易和人們離職的舒適度——正在迅速下降（不利），但也與歷史平均水平相符（有利）。這到底是怎麼回事？</p>
<p>在這種情況下，我會尋找任何可以找到的勞動力市場健康指標。作為一名退休研究者，我個人最喜歡的指標之一就是再退休率。</p>
<p>再退休率正如其名：在某一時點聲稱已退休的工人，隨後在一年後報告他們正在工作的人所佔的比例。</p>
<p>再退休是老年工人解決財務和非財務問題的一種方式。一些退休人員面臨財務壓力，因為儲蓄率低、醫療費用高和壽命延長；而一些人發現退休並不是他們所期待的，他們可能會懷念工作帶來的社交聯繫和目標感。</p>
<p>閲讀：MarketWatch 的《再退休視角》專欄</p>
<p>人們可以想象，高比例的再退休現象對經濟來説是個壞兆頭，例如因為股市下跌，退休人員需要工作來彌補損失。</p>
<p>但總體而言，研究表明，股市並不會驅動退休行為。相反，工人在就業市場強勁時更容易選擇再退休。因此，觀察再退休率可以告訴我們更廣泛的就業市場情況以及未來可能的發展方向。當再退休率較高時，勞動力市場可能會較好。</p>
<p>為了檢查再退休率的現狀，我查閲了通常發佈月度就業報告的同一調查，即當前人口調查（CPS）。我識別出在 CPS 採訪時聲稱已退休的 55 歲及以上工人。然後，我利用 CPS 的縱向特徵，在一年後再次跟進這些相同的個體。那些在那時表示自己有工作的被認為是再退休。</p>
<p>圖 1 顯示了從 COVID-19 疫情前到最新可用數據的再退休者比例。（圖表上的時間段表示首次採訪時的時間——在 2024 年 8 月聲稱已退休並在 2025 年 8 月工作的人會被計入 2024 年 8 月的再退休率。）</p>
<p>圖表用紅色突出顯示了人們在 COVID 就業市場中再退休的時期——具體來説，是在 2019 年 3 月至 2020 年 12 月之間退休的人——以及在 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 12 月之間再退休的人。</p>
<p>該圖並沒有描繪出當前就業市場的特別美好畫面。在 COVID-19 疫情前，再退休率平均接近 3%。那一時期正值長期經濟擴張的末期，因此當時的再退休率可以視為 “良好” 就業市場的基準。</p>
<p>對於那些本應在 COVID 勞動市場中再退休的人，該數字平均為 2.2%，最低降至 1.8%。根據最新可用數據，該比例更像是 COVID 時期的水平，而非擴張時期的水平。最新的再退休率僅為 1.9%。</p>
<p>在勞動力市場數據稀少且相互矛盾的情況下，任何指標都能提供幫助。如今較低的再退休率表明，老年工人發現重新進入勞動力市場困難，因此選擇觀望。在接下來的幾個月裏，我將關注其他勞動力市場數據是否也開始顯得同樣黯淡。</p>
<p>-Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>12-18-25 1503ET</p>

<p>這篇文章探討了 “再就業” 作為勞動市場指標，質疑退休人員重返工作是否意味着經濟強勁或衰退。目前的勞動數據發出混合信號：失業率低但職位空缺減少。再就業率較低，表明老年工人在重新進入就業市場時面臨挑戰，這可能暗示勞動市場較弱</p>

<p>By Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
</div><p>What &#34;unretirements&#34; can tell us about the job market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“再退休” 現象能告訴我們關於就業市場的什麼</p>
</div><p>These days, economists find themselves in a fog with respect to the labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，經濟學家們在勞動力市場方面感到困惑。</p>
</div><p>First, there's the fact that the monthly jobs report for September was released a month late and the October report was canceled entirely. But, on top of that, the data that do exist are giving mixed signals. The number of jobs being added to the economy has slowed to a crawl. But, the unemployment rate has remained low by historical standards. Job openings and worker quits - which respectively measure how easy it is to get a job and how comfortable people feel leaving one - are falling quickly (bad) but also in line with historical averages (good). What's going on?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，九月份的月度就業報告晚了一個月發佈，而十月份的報告則完全取消。此外，現有的數據也發出了混合信號。新增就業崗位的數量已經減緩到幾乎停滯的狀態。但失業率在歷史標準下仍然保持較低水平。職位空缺和員工辭職率——分別衡量找工作有多容易和人們離職的舒適度——正在迅速下降（不利），但也與歷史平均水平相符（有利）。這到底是怎麼回事？</p>
</div><p>In these situations, I turn to any measure of labor market health that I can find. As a retirement researcher, one of my personal favorites is the unretirement rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，我會尋找任何可以找到的勞動力市場健康指標。作為一名退休研究者，我個人最喜歡的指標之一就是再退休率。</p>
</div><p>The unretirement rate is exactly what it sounds like: the share of workers who claim to be retired at a given point and then report that they are working a year later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再退休率正如其名：在某一時點聲稱已退休的工人，隨後在一年後報告他們正在工作的人所佔的比例。</p>
</div><p>Unretirement is a way for older workers to solve both financial and nonfinancial problems. Some retirees face financial pressures because of low savings rates, high medical costs, and longer lifespans; and some find that retirement isn't what they expected and they may miss the social connection and sense of purpose that can come with a job.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再退休是老年工人解決財務和非財務問題的一種方式。一些退休人員面臨財務壓力，因為儲蓄率低、醫療費用高和壽命延長；而一些人發現退休並不是他們所期待的，他們可能會懷念工作帶來的社交聯繫和目標感。</p>
</div><p>Read: MarketWatch's The View From Unretirement column</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀：MarketWatch 的《再退休視角》專欄</p>
</div><p>One could imagine that high rates of unretirement are a bad sign for the economy, for example because the stock market is down and retirees need to work to recoup their losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們可以想象，高比例的再退休現象對經濟來説是個壞兆頭，例如因為股市下跌，退休人員需要工作來彌補損失。</p>
</div><p>But, in general, the research suggests that the stock market does not drive behavior around retirement. Instead, workers tend to unretire when it is easiest to do so, when the job market is strong. So, looking at the rate of unretirement can tell us something about the broader job market and just where it might be going. When the unretirement rate is high, the labor market is likely to be good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但總體而言，研究表明，股市並不會驅動退休行為。相反，工人在就業市場強勁時更容易選擇再退休。因此，觀察再退休率可以告訴我們更廣泛的就業市場情況以及未來可能的發展方向。當再退休率較高時，勞動力市場可能會較好。</p>
</div><p>To examine where the unretirement rate stands, I went to the same survey from which those monthly employment reports (usually) come, the Current Population Survey (CPS). I identified workers ages 55 and over who claimed to be retired when they were interviewed by the CPS. Then, I used the longitudinal feature of the CPS to follow up with those same individuals when they were interviewed one year later. Those who said that they were employed at that time were said to have unretired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了檢查再退休率的現狀，我查閲了通常發佈月度就業報告的同一調查，即當前人口調查（CPS）。我識別出在 CPS 採訪時聲稱已退休的 55 歲及以上工人。然後，我利用 CPS 的縱向特徵，在一年後再次跟進這些相同的個體。那些在那時表示自己有工作的被認為是再退休。</p>
</div><p>Figure 1 shows the share of retirees who unretired from just before COVID-19 pandemic until the most recent data available. (The time period on the graph indicates when the person was first interviewed - someone who said they were retired in August 2024 and working in August 2025 contributes to the August 2024 unretirement rate.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖 1 顯示了從 COVID-19 疫情前到最新可用數據的再退休者比例。（圖表上的時間段表示首次採訪時的時間——在 2024 年 8 月聲稱已退休並在 2025 年 8 月工作的人會被計入 2024 年 8 月的再退休率。）</p>
</div><p>The graph highlights in red the period when people would have been unretiring into the COVID job market - specifically, people retired between March 2019 and December 2020 - and who would have been unretiring from March 2020 to December 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表用紅色突出顯示了人們在 COVID 就業市場中再退休的時期——具體來説，是在 2019 年 3 月至 2020 年 12 月之間退休的人——以及在 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 12 月之間再退休的人。</p>
</div><p>The figure doesn't paint an especially flattering picture of the current job market. Just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the unretirement rate averaged nearly 3%. That time period was at the end of a long economic expansion, so the unretirement rate then could be looked at as a benchmark for a &#34;good&#34; job market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該圖並沒有描繪出當前就業市場的特別美好畫面。在 COVID-19 疫情前，再退休率平均接近 3%。那一時期正值長期經濟擴張的末期，因此當時的再退休率可以視為 “良好” 就業市場的基準。</p>
</div><p>For people who would have been unretiring into the COVID labor market, that number averaged 2.2% and bottomed out at 1.8%. For the most recent data available, the rate looks a lot more like the COVID rate than the expansion rate. The most recent unretirement rate available sits at just 1.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於那些本應在 COVID 勞動市場中再退休的人，該數字平均為 2.2%，最低降至 1.8%。根據最新可用數據，該比例更像是 COVID 時期的水平，而非擴張時期的水平。最新的再退休率僅為 1.9%。</p>
</div><p>At a time when labor market data are scant and conflicting, any measure can help. The low rate of unretirement today suggests that older workers are finding it difficult to re-enter the labor market and thus staying on the sidelines. In the coming months, I'm keeping my eye on whether the rest of the labor market data start to look similarly bleak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在勞動力市場數據稀少且相互矛盾的情況下，任何指標都能提供幫助。如今較低的再退休率表明，老年工人發現重新進入勞動力市場困難，因此選擇觀望。在接下來的幾個月裏，我將關注其他勞動力市場數據是否也開始顯得同樣黯淡。</p>
</div><p>-Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Geoffrey Sanzenbacher</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>12-18-25 1503ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-18-25 1503ET</p>
</div>

當退休人員重返工作崗位時，這是否表明勞動力市場強勁，還是經濟衰退的信號？