<p>一位在去年以 0.26 美元的價格積累了 500 萬枚 Curve DAO [CRV] 代幣的巨鯨——成本基礎約為 130 萬美元——最終選擇了放棄，Arkham 的鏈上數據顯示。</p>
<p>這位投資者在 CRV 價格急劇上漲至 1.30 美元時持有，未實現利潤峯值接近 520 萬美元，但在上漲過程中從未出售過一枚代幣。</p>
<p>本週，這位巨鯨以約 0.34 美元的價格將超過 400 萬枚 CRV 轉移至幣安，僅實現約 40 萬美元的利潤——與他之前坐擁的數百萬美元收益形成了戲劇性的反轉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1894" height="1384" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>這一舉動不僅標誌着個體的放棄，也反映了 CRV 市場的更深層次的結構性弱點。</p>
<h2><strong>巨鯨在高位持有但在弱勢中出售</strong></h2>
<p>根據 Arkham 分析師的説法，轉賬歷史顯示：</p>
<ul>
<li>500 萬 CRV 在約 0.26 美元時積累</li>
<li>未實現的峯值價值：約 650 萬美元</li>
<li>本週出售後的實際實現利潤：約 40 萬美元</li>
</ul>
<p>這位巨鯨並沒有在十月的上漲中出售，而是在流動性稀薄和動能下降時拋售，這種行為典型於困境退出，而非戰略性分配。</p>
<h2><strong>Curve DAO 價格結構確認放棄敍事</strong></h2>
<p>CRV 的 12 小時圖表顯示，自 11 月初以來，該代幣一直處於穩定的下行趨勢中。每一次短暫的反彈都形成了更低的高點，進一步強化了整體的看跌結構。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2230" height="1418" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>兩個指標反映出這種弱勢：</p>
<ul>
<li>年初至今移動平均倍數為-0.84，表明 CRV 的交易價格顯著低於其年度趨勢基線。</li>
<li>CMF [20] 為-0.18，顯示持續的資金流出和疲弱的買方壓力。</li>
</ul>
<p>目前價格徘徊在 0.34–0.35 美元之間，這位巨鯨直接在這一下降區間的下限出售。</p>
<h2><strong>這一放棄對 Curve 市場週期的啓示</strong></h2>
<p>在週期低點的巨鯨放棄通常被解讀為：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>情緒放棄信號</strong>——大持有者在經歷數月未實現損失後退出</li>
<li><strong>流動性壓力指標</strong>——願意積累的強勢持有者減少</li>
<li><strong>市場週期拐點風險</strong>——此類階段通常預示着更深的下行或偶爾的底部形成</li>
</ul>
<p>就 CRV 而言，數據表明宏觀弱勢而非反轉，考慮到負流入、下降趨勢結構和流動性疲軟的組合。</p>
<h2><strong>接下來要關注的內容</strong></h2>
<p>對於 CRV 而言，未來有三個關鍵水平值得關注：</p>
<ul>
<li>0.33 美元——即時支撐</li>
<li>0.38–0.40 美元——短期阻力</li>
<li>0.45 美元——需要突破的第一個水平，以消除下行趨勢</li>
</ul>
<p>在買方成交量增加之前，CRV 仍然容易受到進一步下行壓力的影響。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
<p>一位巨鯨在桌面上留下數百萬未實現利潤，顯然是 CRV 更廣泛市場結構的情緒紅旗。</p>
<p>價格指標確認持續的弱勢，流動性流動和趨勢結構仍然指向下行。</p>
<hr/>

<p>一位持有 500 萬 CRV 代幣的 Curve DAO 大户以 0.34 美元的價格拋售，獲得了 40 萬美元的利潤，而不是 520 萬美元的未實現收益。這表明 CRV 市場存在結構性弱點，持續下行趨勢和流動性壓力。需要關注的關鍵水平：0.33 美元支撐位，0.38-0.40 美元阻力位，0.45 美元突破位。CRV 仍然面臨下行壓力的脆弱性</p>

<p>A Curve DAO [CRV] whale who accumulated 5 million tokens at $0.26 last year — roughly $1.3 million in cost basis — has finally capitulated, on-chain data from Arkham shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位在去年以 0.26 美元的價格積累了 500 萬枚 Curve DAO [CRV] 代幣的巨鯨——成本基礎約為 130 萬美元——最終選擇了放棄，Arkham 的鏈上數據顯示。</p>
</div><p>The investor held through CRV’s sharp rally to $1.30, where unrealized profit peaked near $5.2 million, but never sold a single token during the uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位投資者在 CRV 價格急劇上漲至 1.30 美元時持有，未實現利潤峯值接近 520 萬美元，但在上漲過程中從未出售過一枚代幣。</p>
</div><p>This week, the whale sent more than 4 million CRV to Binance at roughly $0.34, realizing only ~$400,000 in profit — a dramatic reversal from the multi-million-dollar gain he previously sat on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，這位巨鯨以約 0.34 美元的價格將超過 400 萬枚 CRV 轉移至幣安，僅實現約 40 萬美元的利潤——與他之前坐擁的數百萬美元收益形成了戲劇性的反轉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G8im593WcAEIjmL.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>The move signals not just individual capitulation, but deeper structural weakness across CRV markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一舉動不僅標誌着個體的放棄，也反映了 CRV 市場的更深層次的結構性弱點。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Whale held through the top but sold into weakness</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>巨鯨在高位持有但在弱勢中出售</strong></h2>
</div><p>According to Arkham analyst, the transfer history shows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Arkham 分析師的説法，轉賬歷史顯示：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>5M CRV accumulated around $0.26</li>
<li>Unrealized peak value: ~$6.5M</li>
<li>Actual realized profit after this week’s sale: ~$400K</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>500 萬 CRV 在約 0.26 美元時積累</li>
<li>未實現的峯值價值：約 650 萬美元</li>
<li>本週出售後的實際實現利潤：約 40 萬美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Instead of selling during the October run-up, the whale offloaded into thin liquidity and declining momentum, a behavior typical of distressed exits rather than strategic distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這位巨鯨並沒有在十月的上漲中出售，而是在流動性稀薄和動能下降時拋售，這種行為典型於困境退出，而非戰略性分配。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Curve DAO price structure confirms the capitulation narrative</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Curve DAO 價格結構確認放棄敍事</strong></h2>
</div><p>CRV’s 12-hour chart shows the token locked in a steady downtrend since early November. Every short-lived bounce has formed lower highs, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CRV 的 12 小時圖表顯示，自 11 月初以來，該代幣一直處於穩定的下行趨勢中。每一次短暫的反彈都形成了更低的高點，進一步強化了整體的看跌結構。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CRVUSD_2025-12-19_16-19-31.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Two indicators echo the weakness:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩個指標反映出這種弱勢：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The YTD Moving Average Multiple stands at -0.84, indicating that CRV is trading significantly below its yearly trend baseline.</li>
<li>CMF [20] prints -0.18, signaling persistent outflows and weak buy-side pressure.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>年初至今移動平均倍數為-0.84，表明 CRV 的交易價格顯著低於其年度趨勢基線。</li>
<li>CMF [20] 為-0.18，顯示持續的資金流出和疲弱的買方壓力。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>With price now hovering around $0.34–$0.35, the whale sold directly into the lower bound of this declining range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前價格徘徊在 0.34–0.35 美元之間，這位巨鯨直接在這一下降區間的下限出售。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What this capitulation tells us about Curve’s market cycle</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>這一放棄對 Curve 市場週期的啓示</strong></h2>
</div><p>Whale capitulation at cycle lows is often interpreted as a:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週期低點的巨鯨放棄通常被解讀為：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Sentiment capitulation signal</strong>— large holders exiting after months of unrealized loss</li>
<li><strong>Liquidity stress indicator</strong> — fewer strong hands willing to accumulate</li>
<li><strong>Market-cycle inflection risk</strong> — phases like this precede either deeper downside or, occasionally, bottom formation</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>情緒放棄信號</strong>——大持有者在經歷數月未實現損失後退出</li>
<li><strong>流動性壓力指標</strong>——願意積累的強勢持有者減少</li>
<li><strong>市場週期拐點風險</strong>——此類階段通常預示着更深的下行或偶爾的底部形成</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In CRV’s case, the data suggests macro weakness rather than a reversal, given the combination of negative inflows, declining trend structure, and muted liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就 CRV 而言，數據表明宏觀弱勢而非反轉，考慮到負流入、下降趨勢結構和流動性疲軟的組合。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What to watch next</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>接下來要關注的內容</strong></h2>
</div><p>Three key levels matter for CRV going forward:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 CRV 而言，未來有三個關鍵水平值得關注：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>$0.33 — immediate support</li>
<li>$0.38–$0.40 — short-term resistance</li>
<li>$0.45 — first break level needed to negate the downtrend</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>0.33 美元——即時支撐</li>
<li>0.38–0.40 美元——短期阻力</li>
<li>0.45 美元——需要突破的第一個水平，以消除下行趨勢</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Until buy-side volume increases, CRV remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在買方成交量增加之前，CRV 仍然容易受到進一步下行壓力的影響。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
</div><p>A whale leaving millions in unrealized profits on the table is a clear sentiment red flag for CRV’s broader market structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位巨鯨在桌面上留下數百萬未實現利潤，顯然是 CRV 更廣泛市場結構的情緒紅旗。</p>
</div><p>Price indicators confirm persistent weakness, with liquidity flows and trend structure still pointing downward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格指標確認持續的弱勢，流動性流動和趨勢結構仍然指向下行。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Curve DAO 的大户曾擁有 520 萬美元的未實現利潤——隨後虧損至 40 萬美元