<p>嘉年華公司（Carnival Corporation (CCL)）已舉行其第四季度財報電話會議。以下是會議的主要亮點。</p>
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<p>嘉年華公司在產能和成本壓力下創下歷史新高</p>
<p>嘉年華公司的最新財報電話會議描繪了這家郵輪巨頭堅定迴歸增長模式的畫面。管理層強調了 2025 年創紀錄的財務表現，2026 年和 2027 年異常強勁的預訂和定價趨勢，以及推動利潤大幅上升的嚴格成本控制。儘管高管們提到來自加勒比地區行業產能上升、地緣政治干擾以及更高的監管和税收成本等挑戰，但整體語氣依然自信，特別是在 2026 年的前景以及公司強化的資產負債表和恢復的股東回報方面。</p>
<h2>2025 年創紀錄的表現設定了新的基準</h2>
<p>嘉年華在近二十年中交出了最強勁的一年，第四季度和 2025 年全年在收入、收益、營業收入和 EBITDA 上均創下歷史新高。淨收入超過 30 億美元，比 2024 年增長 60%，超過最初的指導預期 30% 以上。全年收益增長超過 5.5%，比早期預期高出近 1.5 個百分點，而營業和 EBITDA 利潤率則擴大了 250 個基點以上。每可用下鋪日（ALBD）的營業收入達到了近 20 年來的最高水平，每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 也達到了歷史最高。投資資本回報率超過 13%，是 19 年來的最佳結果，突顯了更高的定價和改善的船舶利用率如何轉化為股東價值。</p>
<h2>2026-2027 年的預訂和定價勢頭依然強勁</h2>
<p>管理層強調了強勁的需求背景，2026 年和 2027 年的預訂量均創下歷史新高。儘管宏觀經濟不確定性持續，以及他們所描述的低消費者信心，嘉年華在其北美和歐洲品牌中獲得了歷史最高的價格。這種前瞻性預訂的強勁表現為未來收入提供了更大的可見性，並支持公司在產能上升的情況下繼續增長收益。電話會議強調，定價紀律結合更豐富的行程和船上消費，仍然是公司增長故事的核心驅動力。</p>
<h2>成本紀律支撐利潤率擴張</h2>
<p>嘉年華的成本表現是另一個關鍵亮點。2025 年的單位成本增長了 2.6%，比公司最初的指導好出 1 個百分點，顯示出嚴格的運營控制。這一改善幫助放大了更高收益的好處，導致報告的顯著利潤率增長。管理層將這種成本紀律視為結構性而非暫時性的，指出在整個船隊和公司職能中持續的效率舉措是維持盈利能力的基礎，即使在通脹壓力持續的情況下。</p>
<h2>恢復分紅信號顯示現金生成的信心</h2>
<p>在投資者的一個重要里程碑中，嘉年華宣佈每季度恢復 0.15 美元的分紅。在多年專注於穩定業務和修復資產負債表後，恢復的分紅表明管理層對現金流的持久性和公司改善的財務基礎的信心。除了分紅，公司還開始回購股票，反映出從單純的資產負債表防禦轉向更平衡的資本配置方法，包括直接回報股東。</p>
<h2>新目的地開發推動未來增長</h2>
<p>嘉年華正在大力投資於戰略目的地，預計將提升客户體驗並支持長期收入增長。關鍵項目包括在大巴哈馬的慶祝島和在半月灣的 RelaxAway 的開發。這些專有或精心策劃的目的地通常帶來更高的船上和岸上游覽消費，更好地控制客户體驗，以及更強的定價能力。管理層將這些項目視為區分嘉年華品牌和在日益競爭的郵輪市場中維持收益增長的重要槓桿。</p>
<h2>去槓桿和再融資增強資產負債表</h2>
<p>電話會議強調了在降低槓桿和改善嘉年華資本結構方面的持續進展。公司已將債務負擔從高峰期削減超過 100 億美元，實現了淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 3.4 倍，符合投資級別指標。這一去槓桿化在強勁的現金生成和有利的再融資活動的支持下，降低了利息支出並增強了財務靈活性。管理層重申其意圖繼續降低槓桿，使公司能夠更好地應對週期性下滑，並可能解鎖更低的長期資本成本。</p>
<h2>加勒比地區產能激增對定價施加壓力</h2>
<p>一個主要的逆風是加勒比地區行業產能的急劇上升，特別是來自非嘉年華運營商的產能。公司的指導充分考慮了該關鍵地區非嘉年華產能增長 14% 的影響，這造成了更具競爭力的環境，並使維持價格完整性的努力變得複雜。儘管嘉年華仍然預計收益增長，管理層承認這一產能浪潮抑制了上行空間，並需要謹慎的部署和收入管理策略。投資者被提醒，即使在這種壓力下，公司仍然指導 2026 年整體收益更高。</p>
<h2>地緣政治風險對阿拉伯海灣部署施加壓力</h2>
<p>阿拉伯灣的地緣政治不確定性迫使公司在最後階段進行行程和部署的調整，這影響了嘉年華對 2026 年的收益指引。這些變化通常會提高成本並壓縮定價機會，因為提前準備時間縮短且需求模式發生變化。管理層將這些干擾視為可控但並非微不足道，儘管更廣泛的投資組合仍然受益於更穩定市場的強勁需求，但這為區域表現增添了另一層謹慎。</p>
<h2>未來郵輪運營成本上升</h2>
<p>展望未來，嘉年華預計 2026 年每可用牀位的郵輪成本（不包括燃料）將上漲約 3.25%。這一增長主要受到勞動力和供應品的通貨膨脹壓力的推動，以及為了支持擴大艦隊和品牌定位而計劃增加的廣告和營銷支出。管理層認為這項支出是戰略性的，旨在增強需求和定價能力，但這仍然對利潤率構成壓力，必須通過收入增長和持續的效率措施來抵消。</p>
<h2>監管和税收負擔將增加</h2>
<p>嘉年華還指出，日益增加的監管和税收成本將成為阻力。與排放配額和環境法規相關的新要求將增加成本基礎，而全球税收框架的變化，包括第二支柱，預計將使所得税費用增加相當於每股 0.11 美元。這些因素將在邊際上對盈利增長施加壓力，強調了持續運營改進和嚴格資本支出的必要性，以保護回報。</p>
<h2>指引顯示 2026 年進一步增長</h2>
<p>儘管面臨已識別的挑戰，前瞻性指引仍然積極。嘉年華預計 2026 年收益將增長約 3%，即使在吸收加勒比地區非嘉年華運力 14% 的激增以及更高的運營、監管和税收成本的情況下。公司目標是實現淨收入同比增長超過 3.5 億美元，併產生超過 76 億美元的 EBITDA。管理層重申其目標是將淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率降低到 3 倍以下，得益於強勁的現金流、恢復的股息和持續的股票回購。總體而言，指引表明盈利和資產負債表將再迎來一年進展，儘管在外部阻力下，容錯空間減少。</p>
<p>嘉年華的財報電話會議展示了一家不僅從過去的動盪中恢復過來，而且正在進入一個新的盈利增長階段的公司。2025 年創紀錄的業績、高價位的強勁預訂和持續的去槓桿化正在與行業運力的上升、地緣政治干擾和更高的結構性成本進行平衡。對於投資者來説，關鍵的收穫是嘉年華似乎在 2026 年有良好的定位，恢復的股東回報和強化的資產負債表支撐着管理層的樂觀態度，儘管運營環境變得更加複雜。</p>

嘉年華存託憑證

嘉年華郵輪

<p>嘉年華公司第四季度的財報電話會議強調了強勁的復甦勢頭，2025 年財務表現創下紀錄。公司報告了收入、收益和淨收入的歷史新高，這得益於 2026-2027 年的強勁預訂和定價趨勢。儘管面臨加勒比地區運力增加和地緣政治干擾等挑戰，嘉年華強調了成本控制並恢復了股息，顯示出對現金生成的信心。對新目的地的戰略投資和去槓桿化努力進一步增強了其財務狀況，儘管加勒比地區運力的增加帶來了定價挑戰</p>

<p>Carnival Corporation ((CCL)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華公司（Carnival Corporation (CCL)）已舉行其第四季度財報電話會議。以下是會議的主要亮點。</p>
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</div><p>Carnival Corporation Charts Record Year Amid Capacity and Cost Headwinds</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華公司在產能和成本壓力下創下歷史新高</p>
</div><p>Carnival Corporation’s latest earnings call painted a picture of a cruise giant firmly back in growth mode. Management emphasized record financial performance in 2025, exceptionally strong booking and pricing trends into 2026 and 2027, and disciplined cost control that drove margins sharply higher. While executives flagged challenges from rising Caribbean industry capacity, geopolitical disruptions, and higher regulatory and tax costs, the tone remained confident, particularly around 2026 prospects and the company’s strengthened balance sheet and restored shareholder returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華公司的最新財報電話會議描繪了這家郵輪巨頭堅定迴歸增長模式的畫面。管理層強調了 2025 年創紀錄的財務表現，2026 年和 2027 年異常強勁的預訂和定價趨勢，以及推動利潤大幅上升的嚴格成本控制。儘管高管們提到來自加勒比地區行業產能上升、地緣政治干擾以及更高的監管和税收成本等挑戰，但整體語氣依然自信，特別是在 2026 年的前景以及公司強化的資產負債表和恢復的股東回報方面。</p>
</div><h2>Record 2025 Performance Sets a New Benchmark</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年創紀錄的表現設定了新的基準</h2>
</div><p>Carnival delivered its strongest year in nearly two decades, with the fourth quarter and full-year 2025 posting historical highs in revenues, yields, operating income, and EBITDA. Net income surpassed $3 billion, a 60% jump from 2024 and more than 30% above initial guidance. Yields for the year rose over 5.5%, nearly 1.5 percentage points ahead of earlier expectations, while operating and EBITDA margins expanded by more than 250 basis points. Operating income per available lower berth day (ALBD) hit its highest level in almost 20 years, and EBITDA per ALBD reached an all-time high. Return on invested capital topped 13%, the best result in 19 years, underscoring how higher pricing and improved ship utilization are flowing through to shareholder value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華在近二十年中交出了最強勁的一年，第四季度和 2025 年全年在收入、收益、營業收入和 EBITDA 上均創下歷史新高。淨收入超過 30 億美元，比 2024 年增長 60%，超過最初的指導預期 30% 以上。全年收益增長超過 5.5%，比早期預期高出近 1.5 個百分點，而營業和 EBITDA 利潤率則擴大了 250 個基點以上。每可用下鋪日（ALBD）的營業收入達到了近 20 年來的最高水平，每 ALBD 的 EBITDA 也達到了歷史最高。投資資本回報率超過 13%，是 19 年來的最佳結果，突顯了更高的定價和改善的船舶利用率如何轉化為股東價值。</p>
</div><h2>Booking and Pricing Momentum Stays Robust into 2026–2027</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026-2027 年的預訂和定價勢頭依然強勁</h2>
</div><p>Management highlighted a powerful demand backdrop, with booking volumes at record levels for both 2026 and 2027. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and what they described as low consumer sentiment, Carnival is securing historically high prices across its North American and European brands. This strength in forward bookings provides increased visibility into future revenue and supports the company’s ability to grow yields even as capacity rises. The call underscored that pricing discipline, combined with a richer mix of itineraries and onboard spending, remains a core driver of the company’s growth story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層強調了強勁的需求背景，2026 年和 2027 年的預訂量均創下歷史新高。儘管宏觀經濟不確定性持續，以及他們所描述的低消費者信心，嘉年華在其北美和歐洲品牌中獲得了歷史最高的價格。這種前瞻性預訂的強勁表現為未來收入提供了更大的可見性，並支持公司在產能上升的情況下繼續增長收益。電話會議強調，定價紀律結合更豐富的行程和船上消費，仍然是公司增長故事的核心驅動力。</p>
</div><h2>Cost Discipline Underpins Margin Expansion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成本紀律支撐利潤率擴張</h2>
</div><p>Carnival’s cost performance was another key highlight. Unit costs for 2025 increased 2.6%, more than 1 percentage point better than the company’s initial guidance, demonstrating tight operational control. This improvement helped magnify the benefit of higher yields, leading to the significant margin gains reported. Management framed this cost discipline as structural rather than temporary, pointing to ongoing efficiency initiatives across the fleet and corporate functions as a foundation for sustaining profitability even as inflationary pressures persist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華的成本表現是另一個關鍵亮點。2025 年的單位成本增長了 2.6%，比公司最初的指導好出 1 個百分點，顯示出嚴格的運營控制。這一改善幫助放大了更高收益的好處，導致報告的顯著利潤率增長。管理層將這種成本紀律視為結構性而非暫時性的，指出在整個船隊和公司職能中持續的效率舉措是維持盈利能力的基礎，即使在通脹壓力持續的情況下。</p>
</div><h2>Dividend Resumption Signals Confidence in Cash Generation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>恢復分紅信號顯示現金生成的信心</h2>
</div><p>In a notable milestone for investors, Carnival announced the resumption of its dividend at $0.15 per quarter. After years focused on stabilizing the business and repairing the balance sheet, the reinstated payout signals management’s conviction in both the durability of cash flows and the company’s improved financial footing. Alongside the dividend, the company has begun repurchasing shares, reflecting a shift from pure balance sheet defense to a more balanced capital allocation approach that includes direct returns to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投資者的一個重要里程碑中，嘉年華宣佈每季度恢復 0.15 美元的分紅。在多年專注於穩定業務和修復資產負債表後，恢復的分紅表明管理層對現金流的持久性和公司改善的財務基礎的信心。除了分紅，公司還開始回購股票，反映出從單純的資產負債表防禦轉向更平衡的資本配置方法，包括直接回報股東。</p>
</div><h2>New Destination Developments to Drive Future Growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新目的地開發推動未來增長</h2>
</div><p>Carnival is investing heavily in strategic destinations that are expected to enhance guest experience and support long-term revenue growth. Key projects include developments at Celebration Key in Grand Bahama and RelaxAway at Half Moon Cay. These proprietary or heavily curated destinations typically deliver higher onboard and shore-excursion spending, better control over the guest experience, and more resilient pricing power. Management presented these projects as important levers to differentiate Carnival’s brands and sustain yield growth in an increasingly competitive cruise landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華正在大力投資於戰略目的地，預計將提升客户體驗並支持長期收入增長。關鍵項目包括在大巴哈馬的慶祝島和在半月灣的 RelaxAway 的開發。這些專有或精心策劃的目的地通常帶來更高的船上和岸上游覽消費，更好地控制客户體驗，以及更強的定價能力。管理層將這些項目視為區分嘉年華品牌和在日益競爭的郵輪市場中維持收益增長的重要槓桿。</p>
</div><h2>Deleveraging and Refinancing Strengthen the Balance Sheet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>去槓桿和再融資增強資產負債表</h2>
</div><p>The call highlighted continued progress in reducing leverage and improving Carnival’s capital structure. The company has cut its debt load by more than $10 billion from the peak, achieving a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.4x that aligns with investment-grade metrics. This deleveraging, supported by strong cash generation and favorable refinancing activity, lowers interest expense and enhances financial flexibility. Management reiterated its intent to keep pushing leverage lower, positioning the company to better weather cyclical downturns and potentially unlock a lower long-term cost of capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電話會議強調了在降低槓桿和改善嘉年華資本結構方面的持續進展。公司已將債務負擔從高峰期削減超過 100 億美元，實現了淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 3.4 倍，符合投資級別指標。這一去槓桿化在強勁的現金生成和有利的再融資活動的支持下，降低了利息支出並增強了財務靈活性。管理層重申其意圖繼續降低槓桿，使公司能夠更好地應對週期性下滑，並可能解鎖更低的長期資本成本。</p>
</div><h2>Caribbean Capacity Surge Puts Pressure on Pricing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加勒比地區產能激增對定價施加壓力</h2>
</div><p>One major headwind is the sharp rise in industry capacity in the Caribbean, particularly from non-Carnival operators. The company’s guidance fully incorporates a 14% increase in non-Carnival capacity growth in this key region, which is creating a more competitive environment and complicating efforts to maintain price integrity. While Carnival still expects yield growth, management acknowledged that this capacity wave tempers upside and requires careful deployment and revenue management strategies. Investors were reminded that even with this pressure, the company is guiding to higher overall yields in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個主要的逆風是加勒比地區行業產能的急劇上升，特別是來自非嘉年華運營商的產能。公司的指導充分考慮了該關鍵地區非嘉年華產能增長 14% 的影響，這造成了更具競爭力的環境，並使維持價格完整性的努力變得複雜。儘管嘉年華仍然預計收益增長，管理層承認這一產能浪潮抑制了上行空間，並需要謹慎的部署和收入管理策略。投資者被提醒，即使在這種壓力下，公司仍然指導 2026 年整體收益更高。</p>
</div><h2>Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Arabian Gulf Deployments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>地緣政治風險對阿拉伯海灣部署施加壓力</h2>
</div><p>Geopolitical uncertainties in the Arabian Gulf have forced late-stage itinerary and deployment changes, impacting Carnival’s yield guidance for 2026. These changes typically raise costs and compress pricing opportunities due to shorter lead times and altered demand patterns. Management framed these disruptions as manageable but non-trivial, adding another layer of caution around regional performance even as the broader portfolio continues to benefit from strong demand in more stable markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿拉伯灣的地緣政治不確定性迫使公司在最後階段進行行程和部署的調整，這影響了嘉年華對 2026 年的收益指引。這些變化通常會提高成本並壓縮定價機會，因為提前準備時間縮短且需求模式發生變化。管理層將這些干擾視為可控但並非微不足道，儘管更廣泛的投資組合仍然受益於更穩定市場的強勁需求，但這為區域表現增添了另一層謹慎。</p>
</div><h2>Higher Cruise Operating Costs on the Horizon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未來郵輪運營成本上升</h2>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Carnival expects cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD to rise roughly 3.25% in 2026. The increase is driven mainly by inflationary pressures across labor and supplies, as well as higher planned advertising and marketing spending to support the enlarged fleet and brand positioning. Management contends that this spending is strategic, intended to reinforce demand and pricing power, but it nonetheless represents a drag on margins that must be offset by revenue growth and ongoing efficiency measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，嘉年華預計 2026 年每可用牀位的郵輪成本（不包括燃料）將上漲約 3.25%。這一增長主要受到勞動力和供應品的通貨膨脹壓力的推動，以及為了支持擴大艦隊和品牌定位而計劃增加的廣告和營銷支出。管理層認為這項支出是戰略性的，旨在增強需求和定價能力，但這仍然對利潤率構成壓力，必須通過收入增長和持續的效率措施來抵消。</p>
</div><h2>Regulatory and Tax Burdens Set to Increase</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>監管和税收負擔將增加</h2>
</div><p>Carnival also flagged rising regulatory and tax costs as a headwind. New requirements related to emission allowances and environmental regulations will add to the cost base, while changes in global tax frameworks, including Pillar 2, are expected to increase income tax expense by the equivalent of $0.11 per share. These factors will pressure earnings growth at the margin, underscoring the need for continued operational improvements and disciplined capital spending to protect returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華還指出，日益增加的監管和税收成本將成為阻力。與排放配額和環境法規相關的新要求將增加成本基礎，而全球税收框架的變化，包括第二支柱，預計將使所得税費用增加相當於每股 0.11 美元。這些因素將在邊際上對盈利增長施加壓力，強調了持續運營改進和嚴格資本支出的必要性，以保護回報。</p>
</div><h2>Guidance Points to Further Growth in 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>指引顯示 2026 年進一步增長</h2>
</div><p>Forward-looking guidance remains constructive despite the identified challenges. Carnival is forecasting a roughly 3% increase in yields in 2026, even while absorbing the 14% jump in non-Carnival capacity in the Caribbean and higher operating, regulatory, and tax costs. The company aims to grow net income by more than $350 million year-on-year and generate over $7.6 billion in EBITDA. Management reiterated its intention to drive net debt to EBITDA below 3x, supported by robust cash flow, the reinstated dividend, and ongoing share repurchases. Overall, guidance suggests another year of earnings and balance sheet progress, though with less margin for error given the external headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨已識別的挑戰，前瞻性指引仍然積極。嘉年華預計 2026 年收益將增長約 3%，即使在吸收加勒比地區非嘉年華運力 14% 的激增以及更高的運營、監管和税收成本的情況下。公司目標是實現淨收入同比增長超過 3.5 億美元，併產生超過 76 億美元的 EBITDA。管理層重申其目標是將淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率降低到 3 倍以下，得益於強勁的現金流、恢復的股息和持續的股票回購。總體而言，指引表明盈利和資產負債表將再迎來一年進展，儘管在外部阻力下，容錯空間減少。</p>
</div><p>Carnival’s earnings call showcased a company that has not only recovered from past turbulence but is now pushing into a new phase of profitable growth. Record 2025 results, strong bookings at higher prices, and continued deleveraging are being balanced against rising industry capacity, geopolitical disruptions, and higher structural costs. For investors, the key takeaway is that Carnival appears well-positioned to deliver further improvements in 2026, with restored shareholder returns and a strengthened balance sheet underpinning management’s optimistic tone, even as the operating environment grows more complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>嘉年華的財報電話會議展示了一家不僅從過去的動盪中恢復過來，而且正在進入一個新的盈利增長階段的公司。2025 年創紀錄的業績、高價位的強勁預訂和持續的去槓桿化正在與行業運力的上升、地緣政治干擾和更高的結構性成本進行平衡。對於投資者來説，關鍵的收穫是嘉年華似乎在 2026 年有良好的定位，恢復的股東回報和強化的資產負債表支撐着管理層的樂觀態度，儘管運營環境變得更加複雜。</p>
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嘉年華公司顯示出強勁的復甦後盈利動能