<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>隨着主要股指在歷史高位附近波動，表面下的行業輪動講述了一個引人注目的故事。</p>
<p>你最好不要在 2026 年前押注消費者。早些時候發佈的 CPI 數據遠低於預期。原油價格正在下跌。重要的消費者風向標和零售股票正在創下多年新高。</p>
<p>市場是否知道一些公眾尚未察覺的事情？這並不是第一次發生這種情況。理解這些信號背後的驅動因素需要觀察當前美國經濟現實的分裂。</p>
<p>我們知道美國有兩種不同的經濟現實。至少在報告的數據方面，它是沿着 10%/90% 的線分裂的。</p>
<p>消費者支出可不是小事。它佔美國經濟的約 70%。前 10% 的支出類型與後 90% 的支出類型截然不同。儘管外面有很多悲觀者和悲觀情緒，市場似乎在説，後 90% 的情況將會變得更好。是的，前 10% 也會受益。</p>
<p>首先，讓我們看看市場證據，然後再推演潛在的經濟故事。</p>
<h3><strong>1. 消費者非必需品行業（XLY）創下新歷史高點</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="632" height="306" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png"/></p>
<p>亞馬遜佔美國零售銷售總量的 7%-10%。與特斯拉在該指數中的權重結合，這意味着有顯著的購買力在推動上漲。</p>
<h3><strong>2. 等權重消費者非必需品行業（RSPD）接近新歷史高點</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="647" height="303" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png"/></p>
<p>雖然還沒有達到，但趨勢是明確的。像 Kohl's（KSS）、Victoria's Secret（VSCO）、American Eagle（AEO）和 GAP（GAP）這樣的個別零售股票最近復甦了。</p>
<p>如果消費者將陷入困境，為什麼這些股票會被追捧？</p>
<h3><strong>3. 原油價格回到 2021 年 2 月的水平</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="642" height="308" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png"/></p>
<p>能源緩解即將到來。大多數人會將節省下來的錢花在其他商品上。這為 2026 年設定了一個有趣的動態。別忘了明年即將到來的刺激支票，以及上週宣佈的 “戰士紅利”。</p>
<p>2026 年資金將會流動。</p>
<p>目前通貨膨脹並沒有飆升，但即將到來的消費速度加快為下一輪通貨膨脹埋下了種子。到明年這個時候，我們很可能會有一個截然不同的對話。但現在，這就是市場所傳達的故事。忽視它自擔風險。我會繼續更新你。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>冰塊正在融化：接下來會發生什麼</p>
<p>看漲交易成本增加 50%</p>
<p>CPI 數據不完整</p>

<p>這篇文章預測到 2026 年消費者將會復甦，這一預測得到了低於預期的消費者物價指數（CPI）數據、下降的原油價格以及消費品股票上漲的支持。市場表明美國經濟的前 10% 和後 90% 都有改善的跡象。關鍵指標包括亞馬遜和特斯拉對零售銷售的影響、零售股票的上漲以及能源成本的緩解。預計消費者支出的增加可能會導致未來的通貨膨脹，但當前市場信號指向消費者的積極前景</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1562280963-8a5475740a10?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>As major stock indices continue to chop around near their all-time highs, the sector rotations underneath the surface have been telling a compelling story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着主要股指在歷史高位附近波動，表面下的行業輪動講述了一個引人注目的故事。</p>
</div><p>You better not be betting against the consumer going into 2026. The CPI data from earlier in the week came in way cooler than expected. Crude oil prices are breaking down. Important consumer bellwether and retail stocks are hitting multi-year highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你最好不要在 2026 年前押注消費者。早些時候發佈的 CPI 數據遠低於預期。原油價格正在下跌。重要的消費者風向標和零售股票正在創下多年新高。</p>
</div><p>Does the market know something the public hasn't caught onto yet? It wouldn't be the first time that happened. Understanding what's driving these signals requires looking at the split in the American economic reality right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場是否知道一些公眾尚未察覺的事情？這並不是第一次發生這種情況。理解這些信號背後的驅動因素需要觀察當前美國經濟現實的分裂。</p>
</div><p>We know that there are two separate economic realities in America. It's split along the 10%/90% lines, at least when it comes to the reported data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們知道美國有兩種不同的經濟現實。至少在報告的數據方面，它是沿着 10%/90% 的線分裂的。</p>
</div><p>Consumer spending is no joke. It makes up around 70% of the U.S. economy. The type of spending that goes on in the top 10% is much different than what goes on in the bottom 90%. Despite all the doomers and gloomers out there, the market seems to be saying that the situation is going to be getting better for the bottom 90%. And yes, it will be good for the top 10%, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者支出可不是小事。它佔美國經濟的約 70%。前 10% 的支出類型與後 90% 的支出類型截然不同。儘管外面有很多悲觀者和悲觀情緒，市場似乎在説，後 90% 的情況將會變得更好。是的，前 10% 也會受益。</p>
</div><p>First, let's look at the market evidence before war-gaming a potential economic story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，讓我們看看市場證據，然後再推演潛在的經濟故事。</p>
</div><h3><strong>1. The Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) Hit a New All-Time High</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>1. 消費者非必需品行業（XLY）創下新歷史高點</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150641.png"/></p>
<p>Amazon accounts for 7%-10% of overall U.S. retail sales volume. When combined with Tesla's weight in this index, that's significant buying power pushing higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜佔美國零售銷售總量的 7%-10%。與特斯拉在該指數中的權重結合，這意味着有顯著的購買力在推動上漲。</p>
</div><h3><strong>2. Equal-Weighted Consumer Discretionary Sector (RSPD) Approaches a New All-Time High</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2. 等權重消費者非必需品行業（RSPD）接近新歷史高點</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150645.png"/></p>
<p>It's not there yet, but the trend is clear. Individual retail stock names like Kohl's (KSS), Victoria's Secret (VSCO), American Eagle (AEO), and GAP (GAP) have come back to life recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然還沒有達到，但趨勢是明確的。像 Kohl's（KSS）、Victoria's Secret（VSCO）、American Eagle（AEO）和 GAP（GAP）這樣的個別零售股票最近復甦了。</p>
</div><p>Why would these names be bidding if the consumer was going to be stuck in dire straights?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果消費者將陷入困境，為什麼這些股票會被追捧？</p>
</div><h3><strong>3. Crude Oil's Back to February-2021 Levels</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>3. 原油價格回到 2021 年 2 月的水平</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-150648.png"/></p>
<p>Energy relief is on the way. Most people will spend the savings on other items. This sets up an interesting dynamic for 2026. Don't forget about those stimulus checks that are supposed to be coming next year on top of the recently announced &#34;warrior dividends&#34; last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源緩解即將到來。大多數人會將節省下來的錢花在其他商品上。這為 2026 年設定了一個有趣的動態。別忘了明年即將到來的刺激支票，以及上週宣佈的 “戰士紅利”。</p>
</div><p>Money is going to be on the move in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年資金將會流動。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is not spiking right now, but this increased spending speed that's coming sows the seeds for the next round of inflation. By this time next year, odds are we'll be having a much different conversation. But for now, this is the story the market is telling. Ignore it at your own peril. I'll keep you posted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前通貨膨脹並沒有飆升，但即將到來的消費速度加快為下一輪通貨膨脹埋下了種子。到明年這個時候，我們很可能會有一個截然不同的對話。但現在，這就是市場所傳達的故事。忽視它自擔風險。我會繼續更新你。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Ice Cube Is Melting: Here's What Happens Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冰塊正在融化：接下來會發生什麼</p>
</div><p>Bullish Trades Cost 50% More</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看漲交易成本增加 50%</p>
</div><p>CPI Data Is Incomplete</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 數據不完整</p>
</div>

2026 年：消費者回歸的一年