<p>日本銀行選擇了廣泛預期的 25 個基點加息，並保持未來加息的可能性，儘管行長植田和男的評論在前瞻指引上相對中性。11 月的消費者物價指數符合市場預期，持續的通脹壓力依然存在。我們預計日本銀行將在 2026 年下半年進一步加息 25 個基點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp"/></p>
<p><em>日本銀行行長植田和男</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>日本銀行對實現通脹目標的信心明顯增強</strong></h3>
<p>會議聲明在多個地方顯示出對可持續通脹的日益信心，提到 “企業明年將繼續穩步提高工資”，“企業積極設定工資的行為被打斷的風險預計較低”，以及 “工資和價格適度上漲的機制將得到維持”。</p>
<p>與此同時，日本銀行強調，加息後實際利率預計將保持 “顯著” 負值，寬鬆的金融條件將繼續堅定支持經濟活動。</p>
<p>聲明本身清楚地表明，只要日本銀行的前景繼續實現，就會有更多的加息，但這些加息的時機和幅度仍不明確。但我們認為，強調實際利率顯著為負表明日本銀行現在認為中性利率的下限在 1% 以上。</p>
<p>然而，重要的是要注意，中性利率是一個概念範圍，而不是一個固定點，應該僅作為參考。日本銀行不會試圖精確指定這一點，這在新聞發佈會上得到了行長植田和男的強調。</p>
<h3><strong>植田行長採取了謹慎的立場</strong></h3>
<p>市場原本預期日本銀行會採取鷹派加息，期待明確其縮小中性利率範圍和未來加息路徑的立場。然而，日本銀行和植田在這方面都保持了相當模糊，這可能導致市場失望。這可能解釋了市場反應——10 年期日本國債（JGB）超過 2.0%，美元/日元貨幣對攀升至 156 水平。</p>
<p>植田沒有提供中性利率的具體範圍，並強調很難看出該範圍是否真的在縮小。他提到，日本銀行將密切評估更高利率對經濟因素的影響。我們認為這些因素應包括企業借貸、銀行貸款、破產、私人消費和資本支出。</p>
<h3><strong>日本銀行觀察</strong></h3>
<p>我們認為，通脹、春季工資談判和日元是日本銀行最密切關注的指標。</p>
<p>由於政府對能源的補貼和大米價格下跌，整體通脹預計在 2026 年上半年將降至 2% 以下。然而，剔除新鮮食品和能源的核心通脹預計僅會小幅放緩，仍將遠高於 2%。我們認為，穩健的工資增長和財政刺激將繼續保持通脹壓力。因此，通脹可能會遵循日本銀行的預測。</p>
<p>在工資增長方面，幾個工會設定的工資目標與去年相似，超過 5%，這表明工資勢頭應繼續保持穩定。我們預計日元將適度升值，主要是因為美元預計將在明年回落。如果日元保持在 155 以下並朝向 152，我們認為日本銀行不會急於再次加息。目前，我們預計日本銀行的下一次加息將在 2026 年 10 月出現。</p>
<p>然而，與我們適度日元升值的基本情況不同，如果日元對美元貶值並繼續推高進口價格，時間表可能會提前到 2026 年第二季度。這次，政府沒有公開反對日本銀行加息的決定，因為它也認識到，增加的進口成本可能會妨礙降低通脹的努力。</p>
<p>生活成本飆升導致之前的自由民主黨（LDP）政府在最近的重大選舉中遭受損失。因此，如果通脹比預期更頑固，政府可能會接受日本銀行的加息。日元將在下一次加息的時機上發揮關鍵作用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>通脹依然頑固</strong></h3>
<p>11 月整體通脹同比微降至 2.9%（相比 10 月的 3.0% 和市場共識的 2.9%），而剔除新鮮食品的核心通脹連續第三個月保持在 3.0%。</p>
<p>按月計算，經過季節調整的通脹環比堅挺上漲 0.4%，商品和服務價格分別上漲 0.7% 和 0.2%。公用事業價格在能源補貼計劃結束後上漲，而其他價格因工資增長和日元貶值而上漲。</p>
<p>我們認為，通脹應是觀察日本銀行未來幾個月貨幣政策變化的主要指標。由於政府的能源補貼以及大米價格的進一步穩定，整體通脹預計在 2026 年上半年將降至 2% 以下，但核心通脹將在相當長一段時間內保持在 2% 以上。</p>
<p>與此同時，12 月東京 CPI 通脹數據將於下週五發布。我們預計整體通脹主要由於去年高基數而有所緩解，但剔除新鮮食品和能源的核心通脹預計將保持在 2.8%。</p>
<h3><strong>大米價格迅速降温，但外出就餐價格仍然高企</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="744" height="343" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CEIC</em></p>
<h3><strong>美元/日元走強</strong></h3>
<p>在日本央行初步新聞發佈後，美元/日元貨幣對小幅上漲，隨後帶動了一些動能。如果我們必須挑選出一個推動該貨幣對的評論，那可能是行長上田所説的，日本央行在再次行動之前需要檢查利率變化的影響。今年，日本央行花了 11 個月時間來監測 1 月份加息的影響。</p>
<p>我們現在正進入年末流動性減少的階段，趨勢往往會延續。在 157.00 以上，美元/日元交叉匯率可能會推高至 157.90 的近期高點。但在 158/160 區域，我們正進入干預區域——日本央行在 2024 年夏季時在這一水平上出售了約 1000 億美元。</p>
<p>我們假設它將在這些水平附近再次進行干預，儘管可以説它更希望在美元疲軟和美聯儲鴿派/即將放鬆政策的背景下進行，以創造一個更有利於外匯干預的環境。</p>
<p>我們確實更傾向於明年美元/日元貨幣對走低，因為日本持有美國債務證券的外匯對沖成本正在下降。使用三個月遠期合約，外匯對沖成本現在已從年初的 4.15% 降至 3.22%，並且從 2023 年底的 6.00% 的峯值回落。日元仍然是 G10 貨幣中被嚴重低估的貨幣，較低的能源價格也應有助於支撐日元。</p>
<p>然而，對明年套利交易的強烈興趣和強勁的直接投資趨勢使得日元保持疲軟。我們當然不會排除美元/日元貨幣對在年末推高，促使干預，並可能需要日本央行提前加息。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>意大利信心小幅上升，受奧運驅動的旅遊業推動</p>
<p>亞洲周展望：來自韓國、日本和台灣的關鍵數據</p>
<p>意大利信心在 12 月改善</p>

<p>日本銀行（BoJ）將利率上調 25 個基點，並暗示未來可能會加息，但並不迫在眉睫。行長植田和男的評論保持中立，BoJ 強調維持負實際利率以支持經濟活動。通脹和工資增長是未來政策變化的關鍵指標。預計下一次加息將在 2026 年下半年，但如果日元大幅貶值，可能會提前</p>

<p>The Bank of Japan opted for a widely-expected 25 bp hike and kept the door to future hikes open, though Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments were rather neutral on forward guidance. The November CPI matched market expectations, with persistent inflation pressures intact. We expect a further 25 bp hike by the BoJ, though only in 2026's second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本銀行選擇了廣泛預期的 25 個基點加息，並保持未來加息的可能性，儘管行長植田和男的評論在前瞻指引上相對中性。11 月的消費者物價指數符合市場預期，持續的通脹壓力依然存在。我們預計日本銀行將在 2026 年下半年進一步加息 25 個基點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/hero/_webp/w1280h720_shutterstock_editorial_13911281i_%281%29_.jpg_webp_40cd750bba9870f18aada2478b24840a.webp"/></p>
<p><em>Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>日本銀行行長植田和男</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018489442188016.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>The Bank of Japan's Increased Confidence in Achieving its Inflation Target is Evident</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日本銀行對實現通脹目標的信心明顯增強</strong></h3>
</div><p>The meeting statement shows growing confidence about sustainable inflation in several places, with comments like “firms will continue to raise wages steadily next year”, &#34;the risk of firms’ active wage-setting behavior being interrupted is expected to be low&#34;, and &#34;the mechanism by which both wages and prices rise moderately will be maintained.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會議聲明在多個地方顯示出對可持續通脹的日益信心，提到 “企業明年將繼續穩步提高工資”，“企業積極設定工資的行為被打斷的風險預計較低”，以及 “工資和價格適度上漲的機制將得到維持”。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the BoJ emphasized that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly” negative after the hike and accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，日本銀行強調，加息後實際利率預計將保持 “顯著” 負值，寬鬆的金融條件將繼續堅定支持經濟活動。</p>
</div><p>The statement itself clearly signals that more hikes will come as long as the BoJ's outlook continues to be realized, but the timing and magnitude of these hikes remain unclear. But we believe that the emphasis on real rates being significantly negative indicates that the BoJ now considers the lower range of the neutral rate to be above 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聲明本身清楚地表明，只要日本銀行的前景繼續實現，就會有更多的加息，但這些加息的時機和幅度仍不明確。但我們認為，強調實際利率顯著為負表明日本銀行現在認為中性利率的下限在 1% 以上。</p>
</div><p>However, it is important to note that the neutral rate is a conceptual range rather than a fixed point, and it should be used only as a reference. The BoJ would not attempt to specify it precisely, which was underscored by Governor Kazuo Ueda during the press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，重要的是要注意，中性利率是一個概念範圍，而不是一個固定點，應該僅作為參考。日本銀行不會試圖精確指定這一點，這在新聞發佈會上得到了行長植田和男的強調。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Governor Ueda Took a Cautious Stance</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>植田行長採取了謹慎的立場</strong></h3>
</div><p>The market had expected a hawkish hike from the BoJ, with the expectation of clarifying its stance on narrowing the neutral rate range and future rate hike path. However, both the BoJ and Ueda remained quite vague on this matter, which likely caused disappointment in the market. This could account for the market reaction – 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) exceeded 2.0%, and the USD/JPY currency pair climbed to the 156 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場原本預期日本銀行會採取鷹派加息，期待明確其縮小中性利率範圍和未來加息路徑的立場。然而，日本銀行和植田在這方面都保持了相當模糊，這可能導致市場失望。這可能解釋了市場反應——10 年期日本國債（JGB）超過 2.0%，美元/日元貨幣對攀升至 156 水平。</p>
</div><p>Ueda stayed away from providing any specific ranges of the neutral rate and emphasized that it is hard to see whether the range is actually narrowing. Instead of focusing on the neutral rate argument, he mentioned that the BoJ will closely evaluate the impact of higher interest rates on economic factors. We believe these should include corporate borrowing, bank lending, bankruptcies, private consumption, and capital expenditures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>植田沒有提供中性利率的具體範圍，並強調很難看出該範圍是否真的在縮小。他提到，日本銀行將密切評估更高利率對經濟因素的影響。我們認為這些因素應包括企業借貸、銀行貸款、破產、私人消費和資本支出。</p>
</div><h3><strong>BoJ Watch</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日本銀行觀察</strong></h3>
</div><p>We believe that inflation, spring wage negotiations, and the Japanese yen are the most closely watched indicators for the BoJ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們認為，通脹、春季工資談判和日元是日本銀行最密切關注的指標。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to government subsidies on energy and falling rice prices, headline inflation is likely to drop below 2% in the first half of 2026. However, core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, is expected to decelerate only marginally, in turn remaining well above 2%. Solid wage growth and fiscal stimulus are likely to keep inflationary pressures in our view. Inflation is therefore likely to follow the BoJ’s projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於政府對能源的補貼和大米價格下跌，整體通脹預計在 2026 年上半年將降至 2% 以下。然而，剔除新鮮食品和能源的核心通脹預計僅會小幅放緩，仍將遠高於 2%。我們認為，穩健的工資增長和財政刺激將繼續保持通脹壓力。因此，通脹可能會遵循日本銀行的預測。</p>
</div><p>On wage growth, several labor unions have set wage goals similar to last year’s above 5%, signaling that wage momentum should continue at a steady pace. We expect moderate yen appreciation largely because the US dollar should pull back next year. If the yen stays below 155 and heads toward 152, we don't believe the BoJ will rush into another rate hike. Currently, we expect the BoJ’s next rate hike to emerge in October 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在工資增長方面，幾個工會設定的工資目標與去年相似，超過 5%，這表明工資勢頭應繼續保持穩定。我們預計日元將適度升值，主要是因為美元預計將在明年回落。如果日元保持在 155 以下並朝向 152，我們認為日本銀行不會急於再次加息。目前，我們預計日本銀行的下一次加息將在 2026 年 10 月出現。</p>
</div><p>However, unlike our base case of moderate yen appreciation, if the yen weakens against the US dollar and continues to drive up import prices, the timeline could be moved forward to Q2 26. This time, the government did not openly oppose the BoJ’s decision to raise interest rates, since it also recognizes that increased import costs could hinder efforts to bring inflation down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，與我們適度日元升值的基本情況不同，如果日元對美元貶值並繼續推高進口價格，時間表可能會提前到 2026 年第二季度。這次，政府沒有公開反對日本銀行加息的決定，因為它也認識到，增加的進口成本可能會妨礙降低通脹的努力。</p>
</div><p>The soaring cost of living led to losses for previous Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) governments in recent major elections. As a result, the government will likely accept the BoJ's rate hike if inflation turns out to be stickier than expected. The Japanese yen will be key in timing the next rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生活成本飆升導致之前的自由民主黨（LDP）政府在最近的重大選舉中遭受損失。因此，如果通脹比預期更頑固，政府可能會接受日本銀行的加息。日元將在下一次加息的時機上發揮關鍵作用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/julianna-linder/user_content/ckimages/orig_5_639018490326527208.webp"/></p>
<h3><strong>Inflation Remains Sticky</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>通脹依然頑固</strong></h3>
</div><p>Headline inflation edged down to 2.9% year-on-year in November (versus 3.0% in October, and 2.9% market consensus) while core inflation, excluding fresh food, stayed at 3.0% for the third consecutive month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月整體通脹同比微降至 2.9%（相比 10 月的 3.0% 和市場共識的 2.9%），而剔除新鮮食品的核心通脹連續第三個月保持在 3.0%。</p>
</div><p>On a monthly basis, inflation climbed a firm 0.4% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, with goods and services prices both up by 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Utilities prices went up following the end of the energy subsidy program, while other prices gained due to wage growth and a weaker Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按月計算，經過季節調整的通脹環比堅挺上漲 0.4%，商品和服務價格分別上漲 0.7% 和 0.2%。公用事業價格在能源補貼計劃結束後上漲，而其他價格因工資增長和日元貶值而上漲。</p>
</div><p>We believe inflation should be a main indicator to watch to gauge the BoJ's monetary policy changes in the coming months. Headline inflation is likely to drop below 2% in the first half of 2026 thanks to government energy subsidies, as well as further stabilization of rice prices, but core inflation will remain above 2% for a considerable time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們認為，通脹應是觀察日本銀行未來幾個月貨幣政策變化的主要指標。由於政府的能源補貼以及大米價格的進一步穩定，整體通脹預計在 2026 年上半年將降至 2% 以下，但核心通脹將在相當長一段時間內保持在 2% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the December Tokyo CPI inflation data will be released next Friday. We expect headline inflation to ease mostly due to the high base last year, yet core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, is expected to remain at 2.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，12 月東京 CPI 通脹數據將於下週五發布。我們預計整體通脹主要由於去年高基數而有所緩解，但剔除新鮮食品和能源的核心通脹預計將保持在 2.8%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Rice Prices Cooled Off Rapidly but Eating Out Prices Remained High</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>大米價格迅速降温，但外出就餐價格仍然高企</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/Japan_CPI_2025_December.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CEIC</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CEIC</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>USD/JPY Goes Bid</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>美元/日元走強</strong></h3>
</div><p>Having ticked a little higher after the BoJ's initial press release, the USD/JPY currency pair has moved up with some momentum. If we had to pick out one comment that moved the pair, it might be the one in which Governor Ueda said that the BoJ would need to check the impact of the rate change each time before moving again. This year, it took the BoJ 11 months to monitor the impact of January's hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本央行初步新聞發佈後，美元/日元貨幣對小幅上漲，隨後帶動了一些動能。如果我們必須挑選出一個推動該貨幣對的評論，那可能是行長上田所説的，日本央行在再次行動之前需要檢查利率變化的影響。今年，日本央行花了 11 個月時間來監測 1 月份加息的影響。</p>
</div><p>We are moving into a thinning year-end liquidity now, and trends tend to run. Above the 157.00 mark, the USD/JPY cross can push up to test the recent high at the 157.90 level. But in the 158/160 region, we are moving into intervention territory – levels where the BoJ sold around $100 billion in summer 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們現在正進入年末流動性減少的階段，趨勢往往會延續。在 157.00 以上，美元/日元交叉匯率可能會推高至 157.90 的近期高點。但在 158/160 區域，我們正進入干預區域——日本央行在 2024 年夏季時在這一水平上出售了約 1000 億美元。</p>
</div><p>We assume it will intervene again around those levels, although arguably it would prefer a backdrop of a soft dollar and a dovish Federal Reserve/imminent Fed easing to create a more supportive environment for FX intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們假設它將在這些水平附近再次進行干預，儘管可以説它更希望在美元疲軟和美聯儲鴿派/即將放鬆政策的背景下進行，以創造一個更有利於外匯干預的環境。</p>
</div><p>We do prefer the USD/JPY currency pair coming lower next year as FX hedging costs tumble for Japanese holders of US debt securities. Using the three-month forwards, FX hedging costs have now dropped to 3.22% per annum from 4.15% at the start of the year and from a peak of 6.00% in late 2023. The yen also remains the most undervalued G10 currency by far, and lower energy prices should also prove to be supportive of the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們確實更傾向於明年美元/日元貨幣對走低，因為日本持有美國債務證券的外匯對沖成本正在下降。使用三個月遠期合約，外匯對沖成本現在已從年初的 4.15% 降至 3.22%，並且從 2023 年底的 6.00% 的峯值回落。日元仍然是 G10 貨幣中被嚴重低估的貨幣，較低的能源價格也應有助於支撐日元。</p>
</div><p>Yet a strong interest in the carry trade into next year and strong direct investment trends are keeping the yen soft. And we certainly wouldn't rule out the USD/JPY pair pushing higher into year-end, prompting intervention and perhaps requiring an earlier BoJ hike after all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，對明年套利交易的強烈興趣和強勁的直接投資趨勢使得日元保持疲軟。我們當然不會排除美元/日元貨幣對在年末推高，促使干預，並可能需要日本央行提前加息。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>意大利信心在 12 月改善</p>
</div>

Further Bank Of Japan Hikes Are Expected, But Not Imminent

- 日本銀行加息 25 個基點，未來加息可能性仍然存在。  
- 11 月 CPI 符合市場預期，通脹壓力持續。  
- 預計 2026 年第二季度將再加息一次。

預計日本央行將進一步加息，但不會立即實施