<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>耐克最近公佈了出色的財報。該公司超出了預期，增幅達到了驚人的 43%。儘管如此，股價仍然暴跌。大多數在觀看 CNBC 的交易者都感到困惑。與此同時，我們的社區在一夜之間獲得了 140% 的收益。</p>
<p>我想向你展示你可以從中學到什麼，以及如何為下一個大交易做好準備。讓我們逐步分析。</p>
<h3><strong>準備階段</strong></h3>
<p>在週二下午 3:38，臨近收盤時，有人進行了下注。這不是小額下注。是 7200 份行權價為 64 美元的看跌期權。耐克的交易價格大約在 66 美元。財報將在週三收盤後公佈。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png"/></p>
<p>這並不是對糟糕數據的投機。這是機構資本為下行做的佈局。這種佈局知道市場做市商的對沖動態會造成自我實現的壓力。</p>
<p>這是幾筆看跌期權交易中的一筆，但有一個巨大的信號。時間線已經開始。</p>
<h3><strong>壓力加大</strong></h3>
<p>財報發佈當天，信心更強。又有 8360 份行權價為 60 美元的看跌期權。支付價格：每份合約 0.36 美元。</p>
<p>結合週二的活動，兩天內累計超過 20000 份看跌期權。在 64 美元和 60 美元的行權價之間。全部是買入，而不是賣出。所有的佈局都是為了在耐克的盤後公告之前做下行準備。</p>
<p>賣出這些看跌期權的做市商必須對沖。他們必須做空股票。根據圖表，這本不應該是個大問題。市場上有一個良好的上升趨勢。但伽馬機制在表面下造成了巨大的下行壓力。</p>
<p>價格尚未移動，但陷阱已經設好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>交易 - 應對波動率偏斜</strong></h3>
<p>在這裏，大多數交易者可能會跌倒。要正確進行這筆交易，你必須關注偏斜。這聽起來可能像黑魔法，但實際上只是不同的隱含波動率在多個行權價之間的差異。</p>
<p>如果隱含波動率在行權價越遠離平價時越高，那就意味着一些事情。這是我們必須關注的事情。這就像高端品牌冰淇淋和商店品牌冰淇淋之間的差異。在某個時刻，你會對你最喜歡的 Ben and Jerry's 口味説 “不”，無論它多麼好。價格是重要的。</p>
<p>耐克的波動率偏斜非常嚴重。隱含波動率超過 130%。看跌期權的垂直價差被錯誤定價。買入一個行權價並賣出另一個意味着為多頭支付過高的價格，而為空頭獲得的價格過低。</p>
<p>解決方案：一箇中和偏斜的蝴蝶價差。結構如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>買入 63 美元的看跌期權</li>
<li>賣出兩份 61 美元的看跌期權</li>
<li>買入 59 美元的看跌期權</li>
</ul>
<p>成本：0.25 美元，寬度為 2 美元的蝴蝶價差。最大利潤潛力：1.75 美元。風險明確，目標清晰。</p>
<p>這並不是在押注某種災難性的崩潰。這是為了在 61 美元的移動上進行佈局，正好與預期的移動和機構的看跌期權行權價一致。這是在週三下午執行的，距離到期還有一天。這是經典的財報蝴蝶價差時機。</p>
<h3><strong>週四早晨 - 現實來襲</strong></h3>
<p>耐克在週三收盤後公佈了財報。數據看起來不錯：每股 0.53 美元，預期為 0.37 美元。創下了巨大的超預期。</p>
<p>週四的開盤價為 59 美元。結果發現，當你在第二大市場銷售 21% 更少的鞋子並承認沒有解決方案時，投資者並不喜歡。</p>
<p>儘管財報超出預期，股價仍然下跌了七美元。伽馬效應全力發揮。賣出那 20000 份看跌期權的做市商不得不進行激進的對沖。這種對沖造成的賣壓壓倒了任何積極的財報情緒。</p>
<p>蝴蝶價差在其利潤區間內開盤。價格在早晨從 59 美元反彈至 60.35 美元。那是退出的時機。</p>
<p>該頭寸以 0.63 美元的價格平倉，入場點為 0.25 美元。結果是 140% 的隔夜回報。</p>
<h3><strong>教訓 - 規模重於方向</strong></h3>
<p>這筆交易教會了我們關於 Ghost Prints 方法的一個關鍵點。這些打印並不能預測財報結果。它們揭示了在價格朝伽馬方向移動時產生規模的佈局。</p>
<p>美光在同一周也公佈了財報。該公司超出預期 1.30 美元。股價正好上漲了預期移動的 1 倍。沒有伽馬壓力。沒有加速。</p>
<p>耐克超出財報預期。股價下跌幅度超過預期移動的 1 倍。伽馬壓力放大了下行。這些打印給了我們四個信息：</p>
<ol>
<li>股票代碼：耐克 (NKE)</li>
<li>方向：來自大量看跌期權積累的下行偏見</li>
<li>目標：60-64 美元的行權價區間</li>
<li>時間框架：到週五到期</li>
</ol>
<p>交易結構處理了其餘的事情。蝴蝶價差中和了波動率偏斜問題。風險保持在 0.25 美元的小範圍內。同時，利潤潛力保持在 7:1 的不對稱狀態。</p>
<h3><strong>這對你的交易意味着什麼</strong></h3>
<p>我們的 Ghost Prints 並不是魔法，而是機制。當機構在財報前積累 20000 份看跌期權時，做市商通過對沖造成下行壓力。如果財報令人失望，甚至只是未能超出高預期，這種壓力會加速價格的移動。</p>
<p>你不需要預測財報結果。你需要為如果在伽馬方向上發展而放大的移動做好佈局。耐克的案例研究完美地展示了這一點。良好的財報，糟糕的反應。我們的方法提前兩天揭示了佈局。蝴蝶價差以明確的風險捕捉了這一移動。</p>
<p>大多數交易者在事後閲讀頭條新聞，想知道發生了什麼。我們的會員實時看到這一過程，並因此進行了相應的佈局。觀察與參與之間的差異在於在大眾意識到之前看到機構在做什麼。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的內容：</em></p>
<p>2026：消費者復甦之年</p>
<p>冰塊正在融化：接下來會發生什麼</p>
<p>看漲交易成本增加 50%</p>

耐克

<p>耐克最近公佈了出色的財報，超出預期 43%，然而股價卻下跌。使用 Ghost Prints 方法的交易者通過識別機構的看跌期權頭寸獲利，這造成了下行壓力。採用了蝶式價差策略來中和波動率偏斜，最終實現了 140% 的隔夜回報。關鍵教訓是要關注頭寸以放大價格波動，而不是預測財報結果</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1553729459-efe14ef6055d?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Nike recently reported stellar earnings. The company beat by an incredible 43%. The stock crashed anyway. Most traders watching CNBC scratched their heads. Meanwhile, our community walked away with 140% overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克最近公佈了出色的財報。該公司超出了預期，增幅達到了驚人的 43%。儘管如此，股價仍然暴跌。大多數在觀看 CNBC 的交易者都感到困惑。與此同時，我們的社區在一夜之間獲得了 140% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>I want to show you what you can learn from this, and how you can be ready for the next big trade. Let’s walk through the progression.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我想向你展示你可以從中學到什麼，以及如何為下一個大交易做好準備。讓我們逐步分析。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Setup</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>準備階段</strong></h3>
</div><p>On Tuesday at 3:38 PM, right before the close, someone made a bet. Not a small one. It was 7,200 put contracts at the $64 strike. Nike was trading at around $66. Earnings were scheduled shortly after the close on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週二下午 3:38，臨近收盤時，有人進行了下注。這不是小額下注。是 7200 份行權價為 64 美元的看跌期權。耐克的交易價格大約在 66 美元。財報將在週三收盤後公佈。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154409.png"/></p>
<p>This wasn't speculation on bad numbers. This was institutional capital positioning for downside. The kind that knows market maker hedging dynamics create self-fulfilling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是對糟糕數據的投機。這是機構資本為下行做的佈局。這種佈局知道市場做市商的對沖動態會造成自我實現的壓力。</p>
</div><p>It was one of several put option prints, but there was one massive signal. The timeline had begun.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是幾筆看跌期權交易中的一筆，但有一個巨大的信號。時間線已經開始。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Pressure Builds</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>壓力加大</strong></h3>
</div><p>The day of earnings brought more conviction. Another 8,360 puts at the $60 strike. Price paid: $0.36 per contract.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財報發佈當天，信心更強。又有 8360 份行權價為 60 美元的看跌期權。支付價格：每份合約 0.36 美元。</p>
</div><p>Combined with Tuesday's activity, over 20,000 put contracts accumulated in two days. Between the $64 and $60 strikes. All bought, not sold. All positioned for downside before Nike's after-hours announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結合週二的活動，兩天內累計超過 20000 份看跌期權。在 64 美元和 60 美元的行權價之間。全部是買入，而不是賣出。所有的佈局都是為了在耐克的盤後公告之前做下行準備。</p>
</div><p>Market makers selling those puts had to hedge. They had to short the stock. Based on the chart, that should have been no big deal. There was a nice uptrend in place. But the gamma mechanics were building massive downside pressure beneath the surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賣出這些看跌期權的做市商必須對沖。他們必須做空股票。根據圖表，這本不應該是個大問題。市場上有一個良好的上升趨勢。但伽馬機制在表面下造成了巨大的下行壓力。</p>
</div><p>The price hadn't moved yet, but the trap was set.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格尚未移動，但陷阱已經設好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-19-154417.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>The Trade - Navigating Volatility Skew</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>交易 - 應對波動率偏斜</strong></h3>
</div><p>Here's where most traders would have stumbled. To get this trade right, you had to pay attention to the skew. That might sound like black magic, but it is really just the difference in implied volatility across multiple strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這裏，大多數交易者可能會跌倒。要正確進行這筆交易，你必須關注偏斜。這聽起來可能像黑魔法，但實際上只是不同的隱含波動率在多個行權價之間的差異。</p>
</div><p>If implied volatility is getting higher as the strikes go further out-of-the-money, that means something. And that's something we have to pay attention to. It’s like the difference between the cost of premium brand ice cream and the store-brand stuff. At some point, you’re going to simply say “no” to your favorite Ben and Jerry’s flavor no matter how good it is. The price matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果隱含波動率在行權價越遠離平價時越高，那就意味着一些事情。這是我們必須關注的事情。這就像高端品牌冰淇淋和商店品牌冰淇淋之間的差異。在某個時刻，你會對你最喜歡的 Ben and Jerry's 口味説 “不”，無論它多麼好。價格是重要的。</p>
</div><p>Nike's volatility skew was brutal. Implied volatility sat above 130%. Put verticals were mis-priced. Buying one strike and selling another meant paying too much for the long side and getting too little for the short side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克的波動率偏斜非常嚴重。隱含波動率超過 130%。看跌期權的垂直價差被錯誤定價。買入一個行權價並賣出另一個意味着為多頭支付過高的價格，而為空頭獲得的價格過低。</p>
</div><p>The solution: a butterfly spread that neutralizes skew. Here's the structure:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解決方案：一箇中和偏斜的蝴蝶價差。結構如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Buy the $63 put</li>
<li>Sell two $61 puts</li>
<li>Buy the $59 put</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>買入 63 美元的看跌期權</li>
<li>賣出兩份 61 美元的看跌期權</li>
<li>買入 59 美元的看跌期權</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Cost: $0.25 for a $2 wide butterfly. Maximum profit potential: $1.75. The risk was clearly defined, and the target clearly identified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成本：0.25 美元，寬度為 2 美元的蝴蝶價差。最大利潤潛力：1.75 美元。風險明確，目標清晰。</p>
</div><p>This wasn't about betting on some catastrophic collapse. This was about positioning for a move to $61, right in line with the expected move and the institutional put strikes. This was executed on Wednesday afternoon, one day to expiration. That's classic earnings butterfly timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是在押注某種災難性的崩潰。這是為了在 61 美元的移動上進行佈局，正好與預期的移動和機構的看跌期權行權價一致。這是在週三下午執行的，距離到期還有一天。這是經典的財報蝴蝶價差時機。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Thursday Morning - Reality Hits</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>週四早晨 - 現實來襲</strong></h3>
</div><p>Nike reported after the bell on Wednesday. The numbers looked good: $0.53 per share versus the $0.37 expected. A massive beat was recorded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克在週三收盤後公佈了財報。數據看起來不錯：每股 0.53 美元，預期為 0.37 美元。創下了巨大的超預期。</p>
</div><p>Thursday's opening price was $59. It turns out, investors don’t like it when you sell 21% fewer shoes in your second biggest market and then admit you don’t have a solution in mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四的開盤價為 59 美元。結果發現，當你在第二大市場銷售 21% 更少的鞋子並承認沒有解決方案時，投資者並不喜歡。</p>
</div><p>The stock gapped down seven dollars despite beating earnings. The gamma effect in full force. Market makers who sold those 20,000 puts had to hedge aggressively. That hedging created selling pressure that overwhelmed any positive earnings sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管財報超出預期，股價仍然下跌了七美元。伽馬效應全力發揮。賣出那 20000 份看跌期權的做市商不得不進行激進的對沖。這種對沖造成的賣壓壓倒了任何積極的財報情緒。</p>
</div><p>The butterfly spread opened inside its profit zone. Price bounced from $59 to $60.35 as the morning progressed. That's the time to exit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蝴蝶價差在其利潤區間內開盤。價格在早晨從 59 美元反彈至 60.35 美元。那是退出的時機。</p>
</div><p>The position was closed at $0.63 from an entry point of $0.25. An overnight return of 140% was the result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該頭寸以 0.63 美元的價格平倉，入場點為 0.25 美元。結果是 140% 的隔夜回報。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Lesson - Magnitude Over Direction</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>教訓 - 規模重於方向</strong></h3>
</div><p>This trade teaches something critical about our Ghost Prints method. The prints don't predict earnings results. They reveal positioning that creates magnitude when the price moves in the gamma direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這筆交易教會了我們關於 Ghost Prints 方法的一個關鍵點。這些打印並不能預測財報結果。它們揭示了在價格朝伽馬方向移動時產生規模的佈局。</p>
</div><p>Micron also reported the same week. The company crushed earnings estimates by $1.30. The stock moved exactly 1x the expected move higher. No gamma pressure. No acceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光在同一周也公佈了財報。該公司超出預期 1.30 美元。股價正好上漲了預期移動的 1 倍。沒有伽馬壓力。沒有加速。</p>
</div><p>Nike beat earnings. The stock moved greater than the 1x expected move lower. Gamma pressure amplified the downside. These prints gave us four things:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克超出財報預期。股價下跌幅度超過預期移動的 1 倍。伽馬壓力放大了下行。這些打印給了我們四個信息：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Symbol: Nike (NKE)</li>
<li>Direction: Downside bias from massive put accumulation</li>
<li>Target: $60-$64 strike zone</li>
<li>Timeframe: Through Friday's expiration</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>股票代碼：耐克 (NKE)</li>
<li>方向：來自大量看跌期權積累的下行偏見</li>
<li>目標：60-64 美元的行權價區間</li>
<li>時間框架：到週五到期</li>
</ol>
</div><p>The trade structure handled the rest. The butterfly spread neutralized the volatility skew problem. Risk stayed small at $0.25. Meanwhile, the profit potential stayed asymmetric at 7:1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易結構處理了其餘的事情。蝴蝶價差中和了波動率偏斜問題。風險保持在 0.25 美元的小範圍內。同時，利潤潛力保持在 7:1 的不對稱狀態。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What This Means For Your Trading</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>這對你的交易意味着什麼</strong></h3>
</div><p>Our Ghost Prints aren't magic, they're mechanics. When institutions accumulate 20,000 put contracts before earnings, market makers create downside pressure through hedging. If earnings disappoint or even just fail to exceed elevated expectations, that pressure accelerates the move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們的 Ghost Prints 並不是魔法，而是機制。當機構在財報前積累 20000 份看跌期權時，做市商通過對沖造成下行壓力。如果財報令人失望，甚至只是未能超出高預期，這種壓力會加速價格的移動。</p>
</div><p>You don't need to predict the earnings result. You need to position for the amplified move if it develops in the gamma direction. The Nike case study shows this perfectly. Good earnings, bad reaction. Our method revealed the positioning two days early. The butterfly spread captured the move with defined risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不需要預測財報結果。你需要為如果在伽馬方向上發展而放大的移動做好佈局。耐克的案例研究完美地展示了這一點。良好的財報，糟糕的反應。我們的方法提前兩天揭示了佈局。蝴蝶價差以明確的風險捕捉了這一移動。</p>
</div><p>Most traders read headlines after the fact and wonder what happened. Our members saw it building in real-time and thus positioned accordingly. The difference between watching and participating starts with seeing what institutions are doing before the crowd catches on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數交易者在事後閲讀頭條新聞，想知道發生了什麼。我們的會員實時看到這一過程，並因此進行了相應的佈局。觀察與參與之間的差異在於在大眾意識到之前看到機構在做什麼。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的內容：</em></p>
</div><p>2026: A Year For The Consumer Comeback</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026：消費者復甦之年</p>
</div><p>The Ice Cube Is Melting: Here's What Happens Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>冰塊正在融化：接下來會發生什麼</p>
</div><p>Bullish Trades Cost 50% More</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看漲交易成本增加 50%</p>
</div>

耐克展示瞭如何通過收益交易來獲利