<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h2>5 萬億美元的基礎設施建設</h2>
<p>全球建設人工智能基礎設施的競爭加速。預計資本支出總額現已超過 5 萬億美元，相當於德國的年 GDP。這一規模對債券投資者至關重要：預計其中約 1.5 萬億美元將通過高等級信用市場流入，其餘部分則通過私人市場和超大規模公司的現金流融資。市場參與者預計，包括亞馬遜、Meta、微軟、甲骨文和谷歌在內的大型科技公司將主導發行。因此，企業債券指數的組成可能會傾向於更高質量的信用。這一變化可能會增強市場的整體信用狀況，儘管它也會增加對少數大型發行者的集中度。</p>
<h2>市場吸收與利差動態</h2>
<p>現在的問題是債券市場是否能夠吸收如此規模的發行。到目前為止，跡象是積極的。最近與人工智能相關的債券交易超額認購——這意味着投資者需求遠遠超過可用債券——得益於對高質量發行者的強烈需求。發行者提供了適度的讓步，這有助於推動強勁的認購。</p>
<p>儘管如此，關於利差影響的辯論仍在繼續。一些我們合作的投資經理認為，隨着新供應的增加，利差將會小幅擴大；而其他人則預期會有更大的波動。歷史先例表明，來自銀行或電信行業的大規模發行趨勢並未導致系統性問題。</p>
<p>一個最近的例子説明了這一細微差別：Blue Owl 與 Meta 的合資企業，旨在為超大規模數據中心提供資金，其定價比 Meta 的一般債務高出約 100 個基點，基於發行時的市場定價。此後，該差異已縮小，突顯出市場定價在投資者對新結構感到舒適時的快速適應。</p>
<h2>信用質量與資產生命週期問題</h2>
<p>大多數與人工智能相關的借款人擁有足夠強大的資產負債表來應對槓桿。評級機構不太可能將此類發行視為實質性風險，除了個別情況下，由於發行者特定原因導致的利差已經擴大。然而，債務是否對超大規模公司的資產負債表具有有效索賠權，細節將至關重要。資產支持的特殊目的工具可能具有吸引力，但基礎資產的獨特風險使得選擇性和深厚的資產級專業知識變得至關重要。</p>
<p>例如，運行人工智能系統的高性能芯片佔數據中心價值的約三分之二，但其價值迅速下降。這些芯片的折舊率很快，新芯片週期加快，提出了這些設施將保持其價值多長時間以及這對長期回報意味着什麼的問題。</p>
<p>一些超大規模公司正在謹慎應對——在現金流內資助資本支出，並依賴外包合作伙伴保持財務靈活性。這種保守反映了對技術更替和數據中心轉售潛力的不確定性。</p>
<h2>結構與市場細分的演變</h2>
<p>融資格局在不同細分市場中也在分化。結構性信用經理指出，商業房地產市場對人工智能數據中心貸款的風險溢價高於類似的資產支持交易，這表明投資者對基礎資產的評估不均衡。</p>
<p>與此同時，主動管理者正在調整投資組合以應對這一過渡。投資者認為，發行激增可能會在一段時間內對收益率施加壓力，儘管對壓力程度的看法各不相同。大多數人認為這種壓力是温和到中等的，但並不嚴重。其他人則將其視為在新交易和結構性信用中選擇性增加的機會，即使這會在經理之間造成短期業績差異。</p>
<h2>投資者影響</h2>
<p>在我們合作的經理中，人工智能基礎設施建設被廣泛視為債券市場的持久主題——規模龐大，但在初始階段通常被視為可控。許多經理提到強大的資產負債表、深厚的投資者需求和靈活的融資選項是市場能夠吸收發行激增的原因。</p>
<p>然而，許多人認為，長期供應可能需要讓步，這可能會對利差施加一些上行壓力。這些機會如何以及何時出現是一個活躍的辯論領域，經理們在時機、結構和發行者選擇上存在分歧。</p>
<p>隨着對資本的需求增加，許多人預計會增加表外結構，其中交易質量由運營商和出租方的合同義務支持。經理在評估這些義務在各種情景下的持久性方面的方法各不相同。</p>
<p>最終，許多市場參與者預計，流動性投資級市場將從以金融部門為主導，演變為更平衡的組合，其中包括更大的科技成分。對於多經理投資組合而言，這一過渡可能會根據經理如何應對集中度、結構和資產生命週期風險而帶來挑戰和機遇。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美國通脹在關鍵領域趨於温和</p>
<p>美聯儲的降息週期是否即將結束？</p>
<p>美國經濟在可能的美聯儲降息前顯示出混合信號</p>

META

<p>全球人工智能基礎設施的建設預計超過 5 萬億美元，這對債券市場產生了顯著影響。像亞馬遜、Meta 和谷歌這樣的主要科技公司預計將主導債券發行，這可能改善市場的信用狀況。投資者對高質量發行人的需求強勁，但對利差影響和資產壽命風險的擔憂依然存在。市場正在適應新的結構，對長期回報和收益壓力的看法各不相同。債券市場向科技的轉變為投資者帶來了挑戰和機遇</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/04/27/16/39/historical-stock-5100618_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h2>The $5 trillion buildout</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5 萬億美元的基礎設施建設</h2>
</div><p>The global race to build AI infrastructure has accelerated sharply. Estimated capital expenditures now total more than $5 trillion, equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany. That magnitude matters for bond investors: roughly $1.5 trillion of this is expected to flow through high-grade credit markets, with the remainder financed via private markets, and cashflows of the hyperscalers. Managers anticipate major technology companies —including Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Google—to dominate issuance, according to market participants. As a result, the composition of corporate bond indices may tilt toward higher-quality credits. This shift could strengthen the market’s overall credit profile, even as it increases concentration in a handful of large issuers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球建設人工智能基礎設施的競爭加速。預計資本支出總額現已超過 5 萬億美元，相當於德國的年 GDP。這一規模對債券投資者至關重要：預計其中約 1.5 萬億美元將通過高等級信用市場流入，其餘部分則通過私人市場和超大規模公司的現金流融資。市場參與者預計，包括亞馬遜、Meta、微軟、甲骨文和谷歌在內的大型科技公司將主導發行。因此，企業債券指數的組成可能會傾向於更高質量的信用。這一變化可能會增強市場的整體信用狀況，儘管它也會增加對少數大型發行者的集中度。</p>
</div><h2>Market absorption and spread dynamics</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場吸收與利差動態</h2>
</div><p>The question now is whether the bond market can absorb this scale of issuance. So far, signs are constructive. Recent AI-related bond deals have been well oversubscribed—meaning investor demand far exceeds the bonds available—supported by strong appetite for high-quality issuers. Issuers are offering modest concessions, which have helped drive the strong uptake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的問題是債券市場是否能夠吸收如此規模的發行。到目前為止，跡象是積極的。最近與人工智能相關的債券交易超額認購——這意味着投資者需求遠遠超過可用債券——得益於對高質量發行者的強烈需求。發行者提供了適度的讓步，這有助於推動強勁的認購。</p>
</div><p>Still, the debate on spread impact remains open. Some investment managers we work with see single-digit basis-point widening as new supply builds; others anticipate larger moves. Historical precedent has seen large issuance trends previously from banking or telecoms not driving systematic issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，關於利差影響的辯論仍在繼續。一些我們合作的投資經理認為，隨着新供應的增加，利差將會小幅擴大；而其他人則預期會有更大的波動。歷史先例表明，來自銀行或電信行業的大規模發行趨勢並未導致系統性問題。</p>
</div><p>One recent example illustrates the nuance: the Blue Owl–Meta joint venture, created to fund a hyperscale data center, priced about 100 basis points wider than Meta’s general obligations, based on market pricing at issuance. That differential has since narrowed, underscoring how quickly market pricing adapts as investors grow comfortable with new structures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個最近的例子説明了這一細微差別：Blue Owl 與 Meta 的合資企業，旨在為超大規模數據中心提供資金，其定價比 Meta 的一般債務高出約 100 個基點，基於發行時的市場定價。此後，該差異已縮小，突顯出市場定價在投資者對新結構感到舒適時的快速適應。</p>
</div><h2>Credit quality and asset-life questions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>信用質量與資產生命週期問題</h2>
</div><p>Most AI-related borrowers have balance sheets strong enough to handle the leverage. Rating agencies are unlikely to view this issuance as materially risky, aside from select cases where spreads have already widened for issuer-specific reasons. However, the details will matter substantially as to whether the debt raised has effective claims on the balance sheets of the hyperscalers. Asset-backed special purpose vehicles may be attractive, but the distinct risks in the underlying assets make selectivity and deep asset-level expertise essential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數與人工智能相關的借款人擁有足夠強大的資產負債表來應對槓桿。評級機構不太可能將此類發行視為實質性風險，除了個別情況下，由於發行者特定原因導致的利差已經擴大。然而，債務是否對超大規模公司的資產負債表具有有效索賠權，細節將至關重要。資產支持的特殊目的工具可能具有吸引力，但基礎資產的獨特風險使得選擇性和深厚的資產級專業知識變得至關重要。</p>
</div><p>For example, high-powered chips that run AI systems make up about two-thirds of a data center’s value, but lose their worth quickly. Depreciation rates for these chips are fast and the new chip cycles have sped up, raising questions about how long these facilities will hold their value and what that means for long-term returns</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，運行人工智能系統的高性能芯片佔數據中心價值的約三分之二，但其價值迅速下降。這些芯片的折舊率很快，新芯片週期加快，提出了這些設施將保持其價值多長時間以及這對長期回報意味着什麼的問題。</p>
</div><p>Some hyperscalers are responding cautiously—funding capex within cash flow and relying on outsourced partners to maintain financial flexibility. This conservatism reflects uncertainty over both technological turnover and data center resale potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些超大規模公司正在謹慎應對——在現金流內資助資本支出，並依賴外包合作伙伴保持財務靈活性。這種保守反映了對技術更替和數據中心轉售潛力的不確定性。</p>
</div><h2>Evolving structures and market segments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結構與市場細分的演變</h2>
</div><p>The financing landscape is also diverging across segments. Structured credit managers note that the commercial real estate market is assigning higher risk premiums to AI data-center loans than similar asset-backed deals, suggesting investors are evaluating the underlying assets unevenly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>融資格局在不同細分市場中也在分化。結構性信用經理指出，商業房地產市場對人工智能數據中心貸款的風險溢價高於類似的資產支持交易，這表明投資者對基礎資產的評估不均衡。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, active managers are adjusting portfolios to navigate this transition. Investors see the surge in issuance as likely to keep yields under pressure for a while, with differing opinions on how much. Most see this pressure as mild to moderate, but not severe. Others view it as a chance to add selectively in new deals and structured credit, even if it creates short-term performance differences across managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，主動管理者正在調整投資組合以應對這一過渡。投資者認為，發行激增可能會在一段時間內對收益率施加壓力，儘管對壓力程度的看法各不相同。大多數人認為這種壓力是温和到中等的，但並不嚴重。其他人則將其視為在新交易和結構性信用中選擇性增加的機會，即使這會在經理之間造成短期業績差異。</p>
</div><h2>Investor implications</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者影響</h2>
</div><p>Across the managers we work with, the AI buildout is widely viewed as a lasting theme for bond markets—large in scale but generally seen as manageable in the initial stages. Strong balance sheets, deep investor demand, and flexible financing options are cited by many managers as reasons the market can absorb the surge in issuance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我們合作的經理中，人工智能基礎設施建設被廣泛視為債券市場的持久主題——規模龐大，但在初始階段通常被視為可控。許多經理提到強大的資產負債表、深厚的投資者需求和靈活的融資選項是市場能夠吸收發行激增的原因。</p>
</div><p>The longer-term supply, though, is viewed by many as likely to require concessions, potentially putting some upward pressure on spreads. How and when those opportunities emerge is an area of active debate, with managers differing on timing, structure, and issuer selection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，許多人認為，長期供應可能需要讓步，這可能會對利差施加一些上行壓力。這些機會如何以及何時出現是一個活躍的辯論領域，經理們在時機、結構和發行者選擇上存在分歧。</p>
</div><p>As more capital is required, many expect an increase in off-balance sheet structures, where deal quality is supported by contractual obligations by the operators and lessors. Manager approaches vary in how they assess the durability of these obligations under a variety of scenarios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着對資本的需求增加，許多人預計會增加表外結構，其中交易質量由運營商和出租方的合同義務支持。經理在評估這些義務在各種情景下的持久性方面的方法各不相同。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, liquid investment grade markets are expected by many market participants to evolve from being dominated by the financial sector toward a more balanced mix that includes a larger technology component. For multi-manager portfolios, this transition is likely to create both challenges and opportunities, depending on how managers navigate concentration, structure, and asset-life risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，許多市場參與者預計，流動性投資級市場將從以金融部門為主導，演變為更平衡的組合，其中包括更大的科技成分。對於多經理投資組合而言，這一過渡可能會根據經理如何應對集中度、結構和資產生命週期風險而帶來挑戰和機遇。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國經濟在可能的美聯儲降息前顯示出混合信號</p>
</div>

AI Capex Wave Tests Bond Market Depth

- 全球 AI 基礎設施建設的資本支出已超 $5 萬億。  
- 約 $1.5 萬億預計通過高等級信用市場融資。  
- 投資者對高質量發行人的需求強勁，市場吸收能力良好。

人工智能資本支出浪潮正在考驗債券市場的深度