<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="740" height="416" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>人民幣在週一早晨大幅回落，此前高盛再次下調了中國經濟增長預期。美元/人民幣匯率飆升至 7.15，為週三以來的最高點，較上週的低點 7.1072 大幅上漲。</p>
<h2>高盛下調中國經濟預期</h2>
<p>中國經濟復甦已變成海市蜃樓，正如我們在此處所寫的那樣 <strong>。</strong> 高盛的分析師在一份報告中警告稱，今年的增長將遠低於預期。他們預計 2023 年經濟增長為 5.4%，低於之前的 6%。</p>
<p>高盛表示，第一季度的強勁復甦在第二季度已經消退，情況可能會進一步惡化。</p>
<p>上週發佈的數據表明，5 月份中國的青年失業率創下歷史新高。同時，零售銷售、工業增長和固定資產投資的增速均低於分析師的預期。</p>
<p>因此，中國人民銀行決定下調關鍵利率，以刺激國內經濟增長。分析師預計當局將在未來幾個月內推出更多刺激措施。</p>
<p>中國經濟面臨的最大挑戰是，房地產行業佔 GDP 的三分之一，復甦進展緩慢。恒大和中國資源等關鍵公司的股票仍然承壓。過去幾個月，房價一直處於橫盤狀態。</p>
<p>另一個經濟放緩的跡象是，像京東和阿里巴巴這樣的中國電子商務公司未能發佈其年度銷售狂歡的銷售數據。分析師認為，未能發佈這些數字意味着銷售情況不佳。</p>
<h2>USD/CNH 圖表分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="502" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png"/></p>
<p>由 TradingView 提供的 USD/CNH 圖表</p>
<p>在過去幾周，美元/人民幣匯率一直處於上漲趨勢，此前在 1 月 13 日跌至 6.7015 的低點。這一復甦使其將重要的阻力位 6.9988 轉變為支撐位。該貨幣對已突破 25 日和 50 日移動平均線，並且也突破了 23.6% 的斐波那契回撤位。</p>
<p>因此，該貨幣對可能會繼續上漲，買家將目標鎖定在下一個關鍵阻力位 7.300。若跌破 7.00 的支撐位，將會使看漲觀點失效。</p>
<p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《USD/CNH 分析：高盛下調中國 GDP 預期》。</p>

高盛

<p>高盛已將中國 2023 年的 GDP 增長預估從 6% 下調至 5.4%，導致人民幣大幅貶值，美元/人民幣匯率上升至 7.15。此次下調反映了對中國經濟復甦、青年失業率以及零售銷售、工業產出和固定資產投資增長緩慢的擔憂。中國人民銀行已下調關鍵利率以刺激增長，預計將有更多的刺激措施出台。房地產行業仍然是一個重大挑戰，影響着關鍵企業和房價</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/chinas-bond-market-needs-significant-reforms-says-imf-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>The renminbi retreated sharply on Monday morning after Goldman Sachs downgraded China’s economic growth again. The USD/CNH exchange rate jumped to 7.15, the highest point since Wednesday. It jumped from last week’s low of 7.1072.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人民幣在週一早晨大幅回落，此前高盛再次下調了中國經濟增長預期。美元/人民幣匯率飆升至 7.15，為週三以來的最高點，較上週的低點 7.1072 大幅上漲。</p>
</div><h2>Goldman Sachs downgrades China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高盛下調中國經濟預期</h2>
</div><p>The Chinese economic recovery has turned into a mirage, as we wrote here <strong>.</strong> In a note, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that growth this year will be much lower than expectations. They see the economy growing by 5.4% in 2023, down from the previous 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國經濟復甦已變成海市蜃樓，正如我們在此處所寫的那樣 <strong>。</strong> 高盛的分析師在一份報告中警告稱，今年的增長將遠低於預期。他們預計 2023 年經濟增長為 5.4%，低於之前的 6%。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs said that the strong recovery seen in the first quarter had fizzled out in Q2 and there is a likelihood that the situation will worsen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛表示，第一季度的強勁復甦在第二季度已經消退，情況可能會進一步惡化。</p>
</div><p>Data published last week showed that the country’s youth unemployment rate jumped to a record high in May. At the same time, retail sales, industrial growth, and fixed asset investments grew at a slower pace than analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週發佈的數據表明，5 月份中國的青年失業率創下歷史新高。同時，零售銷售、工業增長和固定資產投資的增速均低於分析師的預期。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to cut a key interest rate in a bid to spur growth in the country. Analysts expect authorities to deliver more stimulus in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，中國人民銀行決定下調關鍵利率，以刺激國內經濟增長。分析師預計當局將在未來幾個月內推出更多刺激措施。</p>
</div><p>The biggest challenge for the Chinese economy is that the real estate sector, which accounts for a third of the GDP, is taking longer to recover. Shares of key companies like Evergrande and China Resources Land are still under pressure. House prices have moved sideways in the past few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國經濟面臨的最大挑戰是，房地產行業佔 GDP 的三分之一，復甦進展緩慢。恒大和中國資源等關鍵公司的股票仍然承壓。過去幾個月，房價一直處於橫盤狀態。</p>
</div><p>In another sign of the economic slowdown, Chinese e-commerce companies like JD.com and Alibaba failed to publish sales data of their annual sales blitz. Analysts believe that filing to publish these numbers meant that sales were not good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個經濟放緩的跡象是，像京東和阿里巴巴這樣的中國電子商務公司未能發佈其年度銷售狂歡的銷售數據。分析師認為，未能發佈這些數字意味着銷售情況不佳。</p>
</div><h2>USD/CNH chart analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>USD/CNH 圖表分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/usdcnh-1024x502.png"/></p>
<p>USD/CNH chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 TradingView 提供的 USD/CNH 圖表</p>
</div><p>The USD/CNH exchange rate has been in a bullish trend in the past few weeks after it dropped to a low of 6.7015 on January 13th. This recovery has seen it flip the important resistance point at 6.9988 into a support. The pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also jumped above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾周，美元/人民幣匯率一直處於上漲趨勢，此前在 1 月 13 日跌至 6.7015 的低點。這一復甦使其將重要的阻力位 6.9988 轉變為支撐位。該貨幣對已突破 25 日和 50 日移動平均線，並且也突破了 23.6% 的斐波那契回撤位。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 7.300. A move below the support at 7.00 will invalidate the bullish view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，該貨幣對可能會繼續上漲，買家將目標鎖定在下一個關鍵阻力位 7.300。若跌破 7.00 的支撐位，將會使看漲觀點失效。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/CNH analysis: Goldman Sachs slashes China GDP estimate appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首發於 Invezz，標題為《USD/CNH 分析：高盛下調中國 GDP 預期》。</p>
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美元兑人民幣分析：高盛削減中國 GDP 預期