<p>（重複週五的專欄，以便為更多訂閲者提供，無任何更改）</p>
<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>倫敦，12 月 19 日（路透社）——對於鋰、鎳和鈷等電池金屬來説，這是第三個艱難的年份，因為這三種市場都在努力消化 2022 年價格飆升後湧現的供應潮。</p>
<p>然而，電動汽車（EV）革命仍在繼續。對電池及其所需金屬的需求仍以超高速增長。</p>
<p>只需時間問題，需求勢頭就會吸收當前的供應過剩。</p>
<p>至少這是人們的希望。</p>
<p>然而，中國公司正在進行一場同步的技術革命，努力開發出更強大且成本更低的電池。</p>
<p>電池化學正在快速演變，已經很明顯，並非每種電池金屬都能在材料的激烈競爭中獲勝。</p>
<h3>中國持續推進</h3>
<p>通往電氣化的道路目前可能顛簸不平。美國總統唐納德·特朗普已撤回拜登政府的電動汽車補貼計劃，歐盟也將燃油車的淘汰時間推遲至 2035 年之後。</p>
<p>但基本勢頭並未減弱。根據諮詢公司 Rho Motion 的數據，2025 年前 11 個月全球電動汽車銷量同比增長 21%，達到 1850 萬輛。</p>
<p>中國仍然是全球技術轉型的驅動力。作為全球最大的電動汽車市場，今年增長了 19%，佔全球銷量的 62%。</p>
<p>因此，中國公司在電池化學革命的前沿並不令人感到意外。</p>
<p>中國電動汽車市場現在主導的是使用磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）化學的電池。它們比使用鎳、鈷和錳（NCM）組合的電池更安全、更便宜，且性能差距正在逐步縮小。</p>
<p>去年，LFP 佔全球電動汽車電池的 48%。麥格理銀行預計，到 2029 年這一比例將上升至 65%，相比之前 49% 的預測大幅上調。</p>
<h3>鎳和鈷在慢車道</h3>
<p>這顯然對印度尼西亞和剛果民主共和國這兩個世界最大鎳和鈷生產國來説不是好消息。</p>
<p>印度尼西亞未能調整其生產增長以反映新的電池現實，導致金屬過剩如海嘯般湧現。</p>
<p>該國越來越多的鎳正流向倫敦金屬交易所（LME）的倉庫，而不是電池前驅體工廠。</p>
<p>LME 倉庫庫存——註冊和非註冊——已激增至 338,900 噸。</p>
<p>本月，LME 鎳價已跌破每噸 15,000 美元的長期支撐位，這是自 2021 年以來第二次，這給印度尼西亞政策制定者施加了更多壓力，以限制該國的鎳熱潮。</p>
<p>鈷市場同樣處於長期供過於求的狀態，價格在剛果於 2 月份暫停出口並在 10 月份引入配額制度之前也遭遇了重創。</p>
<p>新規則的緩慢實施使得鈷中間體的運輸完全停滯，無法送達中國煉油廠。</p>
<p>剛果的供應紀律可能會變成供應衝擊。這對已經在鎳基電池化學中掙扎的金屬來説可能代價高昂。</p>
<p>汽車製造商對鈷的價格波動歷史和剛果手工採礦行業相關的倫理問題自然感到謹慎。</p>
<p>今年的事件只會加深這些擔憂，並加速嘗試將鈷排除在電池之外的努力。</p>
<h3>鋰主導……暫時</h3>
<p>鋰仍然是電池中的主導金屬，中國向 LFP 化學的轉變進一步鞏固了其中心地位。</p>
<p>諮詢公司 Adamas Intelligence 估計，9 月份全球道路上部署了 60,900 噸鋰，同比增長 25%，與電池總部署的增長率相匹配。鈷和鎳的部署增長分別為 15% 和 10%。</p>
<p>但鋰本身正面臨新的電池挑戰。</p>
<p>中國電池巨頭寧德時代（CATL）正在開創鈉離子電池的發展。最新版本 Naxtra 幾乎可以與取代 NCM 化學的 LFP 電池的效率相媲美，並且成本更低。</p>
<p>寧德時代的億萬富翁創始人曾毓羣認為，鈉離子電池有可能取代多達一半的 LFP 電池市場。</p>
<p>對鋰生產商來説，幸運的是，這種金屬是電網儲能電池的首選材料，這是一個快速增長的需求來源。</p>
<p>根據 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 的分析，2025 年前 10 個月全球電池儲能系統的安裝量同比增長了 38%。</p>
<p>反映出從道路到電網的轉變，福特汽車（Ford Motor）剛剛宣佈對電動汽車投資 190 億美元，同時承諾為儲能系統的電池投入 20 億美元。</p>
<h3>硬連線</h3>
<p>自 2022 年以來，電動汽車電池材料的格局發生了顯著變化，當時鋰、鎳和鈷的價格都在飆升，假設這三者將是電動出行的核心。</p>
<p>但這已不再是確定的事情。電池化學仍在以驚人的速度演變，得益於前所未有的研發。</p>
<p>幾乎不可能預測 10 年後將為電動汽車提供動力的是什麼。</p>
<p>不過有一點是肯定的：銅仍將是連接車輛和充電基礎設施的必需品。鋁也很可能繼續作為車身框架的首選材料，因為其輕便特性。</p>
<p>雖然電池金屬的命運取決於不斷演變的陰極組合，但在電動汽車革命中，最終的金屬贏家可能是那些能夠促進而非直接為車輛提供動力的金屬。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的專欄作家。所表達的觀點僅代表他本人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社的開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。關注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
<p>倫敦金屬交易所鎳庫存因印尼過剩而激增</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1350" height="682" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm"/></p>
<p>中國從剛果的鈷進口在出口暫停後大幅下滑</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1216" height="630" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0"/></p>
<p>電動車電池中的化學成分變化</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2088" height="1178" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4"/></p>
<p>鋰價仍因過剩而受到壓制</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2518" height="1140" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V"/></p>
<p>（編輯：瑪格麗塔·蔡）</p>
<p>)</p>

寧德時代

<p>電池金屬市場，包括鋰、鎳和鈷，儘管電動汽車需求增長，但由於供應過剩面臨挑戰。中國向磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池的轉變正在影響鎳和鈷的需求。印度尼西亞和剛果面臨供應過剩問題，而鋰仍然占主導地位，但面臨鈉離子技術的競爭。全球電動汽車銷售和電池儲能系統正在增長，中國在技術轉型中處於領先地位。電池材料的市場格局正在迅速演變，影響市場動態和投資策略</p>

<p>(Repeats Friday’s column for additional subscribers without any changes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（重複週五的專欄，以便為更多訂閲者提供，無任何更改）</p>
</div><p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - It’s been a third tough year for battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt as all three markets struggle to absorb the wave of supply that followed the 2022 price boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，12 月 19 日（路透社）——對於鋰、鎳和鈷等電池金屬來説，這是第三個艱難的年份，因為這三種市場都在努力消化 2022 年價格飆升後湧現的供應潮。</p>
</div><p>Yet the electric vehicle (EV) revolution rolls on. Demand for batteries and the metals that make them work is still growing at a super-charged pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，電動汽車（EV）革命仍在繼續。對電池及其所需金屬的需求仍以超高速增長。</p>
</div><p>It should only be a matter of time before demand momentum absorbs the current supply glut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只需時間問題，需求勢頭就會吸收當前的供應過剩。</p>
</div><p>At least that was the hope.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少這是人們的希望。</p>
</div><p>Chinese companies, however, are embarked on a simultaneous technological revolution as they strive to develop ever more powerful batteries at ever lower cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，中國公司正在進行一場同步的技術革命，努力開發出更強大且成本更低的電池。</p>
</div><p>Battery chemistry is evolving fast and it’s already clear that not every battery metal is going to be a winner in the intense competition between materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電池化學正在快速演變，已經很明顯，並非每種電池金屬都能在材料的激烈競爭中獲勝。</p>
</div><h3>CHINA POWERS ON</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>中國持續推進</h3>
</div><p>The road to electrification may be currently bumpy. U.S. President Donald Trump has rolled back the Biden administration’s EV subsidy schemes, and the European Union has deferred its phase-out of combustion-engine vehicles beyond 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通往電氣化的道路目前可能顛簸不平。美國總統唐納德·特朗普已撤回拜登政府的電動汽車補貼計劃，歐盟也將燃油車的淘汰時間推遲至 2035 年之後。</p>
</div><p>But the underlying momentum is undiminished. Global EV sales increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.5 million vehicles in the first 11 months of 2025, according to consultancy Rho Motion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但基本勢頭並未減弱。根據諮詢公司 Rho Motion 的數據，2025 年前 11 個月全球電動汽車銷量同比增長 21%，達到 1850 萬輛。</p>
</div><p>China remains the driver of the global technology shift. The world’s largest EV market has grown by another 19% this year, accounting for 62% of global sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國仍然是全球技術轉型的驅動力。作為全球最大的電動汽車市場，今年增長了 19%，佔全球銷量的 62%。</p>
</div><p>It should therefore be no great surprise that it is Chinese companies that are at the forefront of the revolution in battery chemistry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，中國公司在電池化學革命的前沿並不令人感到意外。</p>
</div><p>The Chinese EV market is now dominated by batteries using lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry. They are safer and cheaper than those using a combination of nickel, cobalt and manganese (NCM) and the performance gap is steadily narrowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國電動汽車市場現在主導的是使用磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）化學的電池。它們比使用鎳、鈷和錳（NCM）組合的電池更安全、更便宜，且性能差距正在逐步縮小。</p>
</div><p>LFP accounted for 48% of global EV batteries last year. Macquarie Bank expects that share to rise to 65% by 2029, a sharp upwards revision from its previous 49% forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，LFP 佔全球電動汽車電池的 48%。麥格理銀行預計，到 2029 年這一比例將上升至 65%，相比之前 49% 的預測大幅上調。</p>
</div><h3>NICKEL AND COBALT IN THE SLOW LANE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鎳和鈷在慢車道</h3>
</div><p>This is clearly not good news for either Indonesia or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world’s largest producers of nickel and cobalt respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這顯然對印度尼西亞和剛果民主共和國這兩個世界最大鎳和鈷生產國來説不是好消息。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia has failed to temper its production growth to reflect the new battery reality, generating a tsunami of surplus metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亞未能調整其生產增長以反映新的電池現實，導致金屬過剩如海嘯般湧現。</p>
</div><p>Ever more of the country’s nickel has been heading for a London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse rather than a battery precursor plant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該國越來越多的鎳正流向倫敦金屬交易所（LME）的倉庫，而不是電池前驅體工廠。</p>
</div><p>LME warehouse stocks - registered and off-warrant - have mushroomed to 338,900 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 倉庫庫存——註冊和非註冊——已激增至 338,900 噸。</p>
</div><p>The LME nickel price has this month broken below long-term support at $15,000 per ton for only the second time since 2021, piling more pressure on Indonesian policy-makers to restrain the country’s nickel boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，LME 鎳價已跌破每噸 15,000 美元的長期支撐位，這是自 2021 年以來第二次，這給印度尼西亞政策制定者施加了更多壓力，以限制該國的鎳熱潮。</p>
</div><p>The cobalt market is in a similar state of chronic oversupply and prices were equally bombed out before Congo suspended exports in February and introduced a quota system in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鈷市場同樣處於長期供過於求的狀態，價格在剛果於 2 月份暫停出口並在 10 月份引入配額制度之前也遭遇了重創。</p>
</div><p>Slow implementation of the new rules has brought shipments of cobalt intermediates to Chinese refineries to a complete halt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新規則的緩慢實施使得鈷中間體的運輸完全停滯，無法送達中國煉油廠。</p>
</div><p>Congo’s supply discipline risks becoming a supply shock. That could prove costly for a metal that is already struggling to hold its share even within nickel-based battery chemistries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剛果的供應紀律可能會變成供應衝擊。這對已經在鎳基電池化學中掙扎的金屬來説可能代價高昂。</p>
</div><p>Automakers are understandably wary of cobalt’s history of price volatility and the ethical problems associated with Congo’s artisanal mining sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汽車製造商對鈷的價格波動歷史和剛果手工採礦行業相關的倫理問題自然感到謹慎。</p>
</div><p>This year’s events will only reinforce those concerns and risk accelerating attempts to engineer cobalt out of the battery equation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年的事件只會加深這些擔憂，並加速嘗試將鈷排除在電池之外的努力。</p>
</div><h3>LITHIUM DOMINANT … FOR NOW</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鋰主導……暫時</h3>
</div><p>Lithium remains the dominant metal in batteries and China’s pivot to LFP chemistry reinforces its centrality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋰仍然是電池中的主導金屬，中國向 LFP 化學的轉變進一步鞏固了其中心地位。</p>
</div><p>Consultancy Adamas Intelligence estimates 60,900 tons of lithium were deployed onto roads globally in September, a 25% year-on-year increase that matches the growth rate of total battery deployment. Cobalt and nickel lagged with deployment growth of 15% and 10% respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>諮詢公司 Adamas Intelligence 估計，9 月份全球道路上部署了 60,900 噸鋰，同比增長 25%，與電池總部署的增長率相匹配。鈷和鎳的部署增長分別為 15% 和 10%。</p>
</div><p>But lithium itself is facing a new battery challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但鋰本身正面臨新的電池挑戰。</p>
</div><p>Chinese battery giant CATL (300750.SZ) has been pioneering the development of sodium-ion batteries. The latest iteration, Naxtra, will almost match the efficiency of LFP batteries that are displacing NCM chemistries and does so at a lower cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國電池巨頭寧德時代（CATL）正在開創鈉離子電池的發展。最新版本 Naxtra 幾乎可以與取代 NCM 化學的 LFP 電池的效率相媲美，並且成本更低。</p>
</div><p>CATL’s billionaire founder Robin Zeng sees sodium-ion batteries potentially replacing up to half the market for LFP batteries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>寧德時代的億萬富翁創始人曾毓羣認為，鈉離子電池有可能取代多達一半的 LFP 電池市場。</p>
</div><p>Fortunately for lithium producers, the metal is the material of choice for power-grid storage batteries, a rapidly growing source of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對鋰生產商來説，幸運的是，這種金屬是電網儲能電池的首選材料，這是一個快速增長的需求來源。</p>
</div><p>Global installations of battery energy storage systems jumped by 38% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025, according to analysts at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 的分析，2025 年前 10 個月全球電池儲能系統的安裝量同比增長了 38%。</p>
</div><p>Reflecting this shift from road to grid, Ford Motor (F.N) has just announced a $19.5 billion charge on EV investments, while simultaneously committing $2 billion to batteries for energy storage systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反映出從道路到電網的轉變，福特汽車（Ford Motor）剛剛宣佈對電動汽車投資 190 億美元，同時承諾為儲能系統的電池投入 20 億美元。</p>
</div><h3>HARD WIRED</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>硬連線</h3>
</div><p>The EV battery materials landscape has changed markedly since 2022, when lithium, nickel and cobalt prices were all surging on the assumption that this trio would be core to electric mobility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年以來，電動汽車電池材料的格局發生了顯著變化，當時鋰、鎳和鈷的價格都在飆升，假設這三者將是電動出行的核心。</p>
</div><p>That is no longer a certainty. Battery chemistry is still evolving at breakneck speed on the back of unprecedented research and development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這已不再是確定的事情。電池化學仍在以驚人的速度演變，得益於前所未有的研發。</p>
</div><p>It is almost impossible to predict what will be powering electric vehicles in 10 years’ time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾乎不可能預測 10 年後將為電動汽車提供動力的是什麼。</p>
</div><p>One thing is for sure though: Copper will still be essential to wiring both vehicle and charging infrastructure. It is also highly likely that aluminium will remain the material of choice for body frames, thanks to its light weight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過有一點是肯定的：銅仍將是連接車輛和充電基礎設施的必需品。鋁也很可能繼續作為車身框架的首選材料，因為其輕便特性。</p>
</div><p>While the fortunes of battery metals are dependent on the continuously evolving cathode mix, the ultimate metallic winners in the EV revolution might be those that enable, rather than directly power the vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然電池金屬的命運取決於不斷演變的陰極組合，但在電動汽車革命中，最終的金屬贏家可能是那些能夠促進而非直接為車輛提供動力的金屬。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社的專欄作家。所表達的觀點僅代表他本人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社的開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。關注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
</div><p>LME nickel stocks surge on Indonesian oversupply</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦金屬交易所鎳庫存因印尼過剩而激增</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/48ZVYAm"/></p>
<p>China’s cobalt imports from Congo slump after export halt</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國從剛果的鈷進口在出口暫停後大幅下滑</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y3xUY0"/></p>
<p>Changing chemistry in EV batteries</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電動車電池中的化學成分變化</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4dQGzV4"/></p>
<p>Lithium price still grounded by oversupply</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋰價仍因過剩而受到壓制</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pU3K5V"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（編輯：瑪格麗塔·蔡）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

投資回報率 - 電動汽車革命持續推進，但電池金屬失去活力：Andy Home