<p>每年這個時候，經濟學家和市場專家們都會大量撰寫關於未來一年股票預測和經濟繁榮/衰退警告的文章。由於似乎有異常數量的衰退預測出現在未來一年，包括一些來自信譽良好的來源，我認為我們應該探討一個問題：美國在 2026 年會經歷重大經濟衝擊嗎？</p>
<p>華爾街的經濟學家往往比較保守，因此通常不願意預測衰退（除非經濟指標糟糕到無法避免使用 “R” 字）。目前，我認為經濟學家用來推測六到十二個月前景的大多數指標狀況良好到尚可，儘管有幾個例外。</p>
<p>[text_ad]</p>
<p>最顯著的是，失業率顯示出一些惡化的跡象。隨着年末的臨近，職位增長正在放緩，自四月以來，總非農就業人數幾乎沒有變化。根據最新的 ADP 國家就業報告，美國私營部門在 11 月實際上減少了 32,000 個職位，這是自 2023 年 3 月以來的最大降幅。</p>
<p>更重要的是，裁員和裁員警告達到了十年來的最高水平（尤其是在製造業、商業/信息服務和建築業），而官方失業率在下半年上升，9 月份達到了 4.4%——這是四年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>但是，由於勞工統計局和國家經濟研究局發佈的指標可能需要在衰退正式開始後長達一年才能確認，因此尋找早期警告信號的工作是無止境的。這就是由會議委員會發布的廣受關注的領先經濟指數（LEI）進入視野的原因。</p>
<p>LEI 傳統上是一個準確的衰退警告指標，令人擔憂的是，當它在二月到八月之間下降近 3% 時，發出了衰退信號，跌破了歷史上預示衰退開始的水平。（順便提一下，今年的關税部分被歸咎於最近 LEI 讀數中反映的經濟惡化。）</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256"/></p>
<p><em>來源：</em> <em>會議委員會</em></p>
<p>公平地説，衰退的預測 notoriously 難以準確，老生常談的 “經濟學家正確預測了過去九次衰退中的 22 次” 浮現在腦海中。引用一位特別憤世嫉俗的（未具名）評論員的話，“這是最長的衰退預測，至今未能實現——已經三年了！” 正如這種情緒所暗示的，押注 2026 年美國會出現衰退可以被視為一種統計上的不可能。</p>
<p>撇開 LEI 的假定價值，另一種更可靠的衰退指標是由里士滿聯邦儲備銀行制定的。它是 Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm 風格的衰退指標（簡稱 “S.O.S.” 指標），基於投保失業率。用里士滿聯邦儲備銀行的話説，“每週的 S.O.S.指標在過去五十年中被證明能夠提供準確和及時的衰退信號，並可能補充其他領先衰退指標的信號。”</p>
<p>S.O.S.指標基於硬數據，具體來説，是持續失業救濟申請（批准的失業救濟）。相比之下，官方的月度失業率基於對人們所説的家庭調查，這在某些時候可能無法準確反映經濟現實。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309"/></p>
<p><em>來源：</em> <em>里士滿聯邦儲備銀行</em></p>
<p>目前，持續申請人數已接近兩百萬，S.O.S.指標已達到觸發經典 “衰退” 信號的一半……這也意味着它距離不觸發該信號也只有一半的距離。但為了衰退鷹派的利益，如果 S.O.S.的當前變化率持續下去，衰退信號可能會在二月或三月出現。</p>
<p>至於我，雖然我並不那麼教條地做出官方預測，但我傾向於持温和的觀點，即美國經濟將再次度過失業風暴，明年避免衰退。我個人用來判斷經濟狀態的指標嚴格基於股市（使用 Ed Yardeni 的格言 “衰退導致熊市”，這意味着任何經濟惡化將迅速反映在股價中）。</p>
<p>也就是説，我目前沒有看到市場對未來可預見的衰退感到擔憂的證據。經濟敏感的銀行（包括區域銀行）和經紀/交易商股票仍然表現良好，而對利率更敏感的股票也顯示出相當程度的強勁。</p>
<p>然而，如果 2026 年真的出現衰退，我相信我們會在市場上得到 “預警” 信號（主要表現為經濟敏感的銀行和經紀/交易商股票的明顯表現不佳），這將給我們足夠的時間來準備。更重要的是，我相信_Cabot Turnaround Letter_投資組合在即使是嚴峻的經濟環境中也相對良好，因為它對週期性股票的暴露相對有限，對防禦性問題的暴露較強。</p>
<p>[author_ad]</p>

<p>經濟學家和市場專家預測 2026 年可能會出現衰退，一些指標如就業率和領先經濟指數（LEI）顯示出經濟放緩的跡象。然而，基於失業申請的里士滿聯邦儲備銀行的指標尚未完全發出衰退的信號。儘管一些專家保持謹慎，但其他人認為美國經濟可能會避免衰退，因為當前的市場狀況並未反映出顯著的擔憂</p>

<p>It’s that time of the year when economists and market mavens spill an abundance of ink making year-ahead stock forecasts and boom/bust warnings. As there seems to be an abnormal amount of recession predictions for the year ahead—including a few from some reputable sources—I think we should examine the question: Will the U.S. witness a major economic shock in 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每年這個時候，經濟學家和市場專家們都會大量撰寫關於未來一年股票預測和經濟繁榮/衰退警告的文章。由於似乎有異常數量的衰退預測出現在未來一年，包括一些來自信譽良好的來源，我認為我們應該探討一個問題：美國在 2026 年會經歷重大經濟衝擊嗎？</p>
</div><p>Wall Street economists tend to be a conservative lot, and as such, tend to shy away from predicting recessions (that is, unless the economic indicators are too atrocious to avoid using the “R” word). Right now, I’d say that most of the metrics economists use to divine the six-to-12-month outlook are in good-to-decent shape, although there are a couple of exceptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的經濟學家往往比較保守，因此通常不願意預測衰退（除非經濟指標糟糕到無法避免使用 “R” 字）。目前，我認為經濟學家用來推測六到十二個月前景的大多數指標狀況良好到尚可，儘管有幾個例外。</p>
</div><p>[text_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><p>Most notably, the employment rate is showing some signs of deterioration. Job growth is slowing as we head into the year’s end, with total nonfarm payroll employment showing little change since April. And according to the latest ADP National Employment Report, the U.S. private sector actually shed 32,000 jobs in November, which was the biggest drop since March 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最顯著的是，失業率顯示出一些惡化的跡象。隨着年末的臨近，職位增長正在放緩，自四月以來，總非農就業人數幾乎沒有變化。根據最新的 ADP 國家就業報告，美國私營部門在 11 月實際上減少了 32,000 個職位，這是自 2023 年 3 月以來的最大降幅。</p>
</div><p>What’s more, layoffs and layoff warnings have hit their highest levels in a decade (particularly in manufacturing, business/information services and construction), while the official unemployment rate has increased over the second half of the year, reaching 4.4% in September—its highest level in four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，裁員和裁員警告達到了十年來的最高水平（尤其是在製造業、商業/信息服務和建築業），而官方失業率在下半年上升，9 月份達到了 4.4%——這是四年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>But since the metrics published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Bureau of Economic Research can take up to a year after a recession actually starts to formally identify it, the search for early warning signals is relentless. That’s where the widely watched Leading Economic Index (LEI) published by the Conference Board enters the picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，由於勞工統計局和國家經濟研究局發佈的指標可能需要在衰退正式開始後長達一年才能確認，因此尋找早期警告信號的工作是無止境的。這就是由會議委員會發布的廣受關注的領先經濟指數（LEI）進入視野的原因。</p>
</div><p>The LEI has traditionally been an accurate recession warning gauge, and alarmingly, it flashed a recession signal when it declined by nearly 3% between February and August, slipping below the level that historically presages the onset of recession. (As an aside, this year’s tariffs were partly blamed for the economic deterioration reflected in recent LEI readings.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LEI 傳統上是一個準確的衰退警告指標，令人擔憂的是，當它在二月到八月之間下降近 3% 時，發出了衰退信號，跌破了歷史上預示衰退開始的水平。（順便提一下，今年的關税部分被歸咎於最近 LEI 讀數中反映的經濟惡化。）</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzFhLzNjL2U4MTQ4ZTE1NGNhZDlhOTk1NWQ1ZTMwODY1NGMvY29uZmVyZW5jZS1ib2FyZC1sZWktbGVhZGluZy1lY29ub21pYy1pbmRpY2F0b3JzLTEyLTI1LnBuZw" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/a1628a7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1025x566+0+0/resize/464x256!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F1a%2F3c%2Fe8148e154cad9a9955d5e308654c%2Fconference-board-lei-leading-economic-indicators-12-25.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source:</em> <em>The Conference Board</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：</em> <em>會議委員會</em></p>
</div><p>To be fair, recessions are notoriously difficult to predict with any accuracy, with the old bromide that “economists have correctly predicted 22 of the last nine recessions” coming to mind. And to quote a particularly jaded (unnamed) pundit, “This is the longest recession prediction ever to never come to fruition—three years and counting!” As this sentiment implies, betting that a recession comes to the U.S. in 2026 can be regarded as something of a statistical improbability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，衰退的預測 notoriously 難以準確，老生常談的 “經濟學家正確預測了過去九次衰退中的 22 次” 浮現在腦海中。引用一位特別憤世嫉俗的（未具名）評論員的話，“這是最長的衰退預測，至今未能實現——已經三年了！” 正如這種情緒所暗示的，押注 2026 年美國會出現衰退可以被視為一種統計上的不可能。</p>
</div><p>Putting aside the putative value of the LEI, another, more reliable recession indicator was devised by the Richmond branch of the Federal Reserve. It’s the Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm-style recession indicator (“S.O.S.” indicator for short), and it’s based on the insured unemployment rate. In the words of the Richmond Fed, “The weekly S.O.S. indicator has been demonstrated to provide accurate and timely signals of recession over the past fifty years, and may complement the signals of other leading recession indicators.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撇開 LEI 的假定價值，另一種更可靠的衰退指標是由里士滿聯邦儲備銀行制定的。它是 Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm 風格的衰退指標（簡稱 “S.O.S.” 指標），基於投保失業率。用里士滿聯邦儲備銀行的話説，“每週的 S.O.S.指標在過去五十年中被證明能夠提供準確和及時的衰退信號，並可能補充其他領先衰退指標的信號。”</p>
</div><p>The S.O.S. indicator is based on hard data, specifically, continuing unemployment claims (approved jobless benefits). By contrast, the official monthly unemployment rate is based on a household survey of what people say, which at times can be a poor reflection of economic reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S.O.S.指標基於硬數據，具體來説，是持續失業救濟申請（批准的失業救濟）。相比之下，官方的月度失業率基於對人們所説的家庭調查，這在某些時候可能無法準確反映經濟現實。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzIzLzQ3L2VhMTg2Njg1NDg1MWIxNjlkZGIyN2E5MmFlYmYvc29zLXJlY2Vzc2lvbi1pbmRpY2F0b3IucG5n" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/6403ea0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1027x683+0+0/resize/464x309!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F23%2F47%2Fea1866854851b169ddb27a92aebf%2Fsos-recession-indicator.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source:</em> <em>Richmond Fed</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：</em> <em>里士滿聯邦儲備銀行</em></p>
</div><p>As it now stands, with continuing claims having reached nearly two million, the S.O.S. indicator is halfway to triggering a classic “recession” signal…which is also another way of saying it’s halfway to NOT triggering such a signal. But for the benefit of the recession hawks, if the current rate of change in the S.O.S. continues, a recession signal would likely occur in February, or March at the latest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，持續申請人數已接近兩百萬，S.O.S.指標已達到觸發經典 “衰退” 信號的一半……這也意味着它距離不觸發該信號也只有一半的距離。但為了衰退鷹派的利益，如果 S.O.S.的當前變化率持續下去，衰退信號可能會在二月或三月出現。</p>
</div><p>As for me, while I’m not dogmatic enough to make an official prediction, I tend to favor the dovish outlook that the U.S. economy will once again weather the unemployment storm and dodge a recession next year. My personal indicators for discerning the state of the economy are strictly equity market-based (using Ed Yardeni’s maxim that “recessions cause bear markets,” which implies that any economic deterioration will quickly manifest in stock prices).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至於我，雖然我並不那麼教條地做出官方預測，但我傾向於持温和的觀點，即美國經濟將再次度過失業風暴，明年避免衰退。我個人用來判斷經濟狀態的指標嚴格基於股市（使用 Ed Yardeni 的格言 “衰退導致熊市”，這意味着任何經濟惡化將迅速反映在股價中）。</p>
</div><p>That said, I currently see no evidence that Mr. Market is worried about a recession in the foreseeable future. The economically sensitive banks (including regional banks) and broker/dealer stocks still look good, while the even more interest rate-sensitive equities are showing a fair degree of strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，我目前沒有看到市場對未來可預見的衰退感到擔憂的證據。經濟敏感的銀行（包括區域銀行）和經紀/交易商股票仍然表現良好，而對利率更敏感的股票也顯示出相當程度的強勁。</p>
</div><p>However, in the event that a recession does rear its ugly head in 2026, I’m confident we’ll get a “heads-up” signal in the market (chiefly in the form of conspicuous underperformance in the economically sensitive bank and broker/dealer stocks) that will give us sufficient time to prepare. More importantly, I believe the <em>Cabot Turnaround Letter</em> portfolio is fairly well positioned for even a harsh economic climate, given its somewhat limited exposure to cyclical stocks and strong exposure to defensive-oriented issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果 2026 年真的出現衰退，我相信我們會在市場上得到 “預警” 信號（主要表現為經濟敏感的銀行和經紀/交易商股票的明顯表現不佳），這將給我們足夠的時間來準備。更重要的是，我相信_Cabot Turnaround Letter_投資組合在即使是嚴峻的經濟環境中也相對良好，因為它對週期性股票的暴露相對有限，對防禦性問題的暴露較強。</p>
</div><p>[author_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[author_ad]</p>
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2026 年是否會迎來經濟衰退？