<p>作者：DeFi 投資者 譯者：山歐巴，金色財經</p>
<p>毫不誇張地説，2025 年對大多數加密專業人士來説是一個殘酷的年份。</p>
<p>我自己沒有預料到年末會出現如此毀滅性的市場崩盤。但作為交易者和投資者，我們的責任是適應不斷變化的市場。</p>
<p>不作為或拒絕接受現實從來不是一個可行的策略。我想分享一些想法：為什麼這個週期如此難以把握，以及我對未來的展望。</p>
<h2>一、項目和代幣數量的爆炸性增長</h2>
<p>在 2017 年，加密市場上只有幾百個項目。到 2021 年，這個數字增加了十倍，達到了幾千個。</p>
<p>到 2025 年，由於像 Pump Fun 這樣的零門檻代幣發行平台，市場上的代幣數量激增至數百萬個。</p>
<p>隨着大量項目團隊湧入競爭市場關注度，流動性不可避免地在大量代幣中過度分散，導致資金嚴重稀釋。同時，代幣經濟模型的掠奪性特徵愈發明顯。</p>
<p>雖然在這個週期中，代幣的整體實用性有所改善，這是值得稱讚的進步，但過去幾年幾乎所有新發行的代幣都遵循了 “低流通供應 + 高完全稀釋估值” 的趨勢。低流通供應 + 高完全稀釋估值是指代幣在發行時流通供應極低（通常不超過 10%），但完全稀釋估值卻非常高。低流通供應人為地製造了稀缺性，減少了 TGE 早期階段的賣壓，從而推高價格。然而，一旦代幣解鎖潮來臨，大量新供應湧入市場不可避免地導致價格崩潰，給早期投資者帶來鉅額損失。多年來，幾乎每一個新發行的代幣都遭遇了這樣的命運。</p>
<h2>二、積分系統人為膨脹數據泡沫，造成產品市場契合的虛假印象</h2>
<p>今年在幣安上市的新代幣的平均投資回報率僅為 0.25 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源：cryptorank.io</p>
<p>在 Bybit 交易所，這一數字甚至更低，僅為 0.11 倍。</p>
<p>這意味着過去一年在這些領先的中心化交易所上市的新代幣平均下跌了 75%-89%！顯然，這一現象的一個原因是創業失敗屢見不鮮。然而，我堅信這些代幣在初始發行階段表現不佳的核心原因在於積分制的普遍存在。許多尚未發行代幣且缺乏優質產品的項目通過積分制人為製造虛假需求，以便以高完全稀釋估值發行代幣。想要吸引大量挖礦用户並在短期內提升 TVL？引入積分制。想要暫時佔據加密社區話語權的高地？推出與 Kaito 相關的活動。當然，我並不是完全反對積分或活動。如果使用得當，它們可以成為優秀的增長工具——例如，Hyperliquid 項目通過積分制成功建立了龐大的用户社區。問題在於，許多甚至還未推出產品的項目——PMF——也在利用積分系統故意誇大其總鎖倉價值和交易量，單純為了在代幣上市時以高價出售。在代幣發行之前，這些缺乏真實價值的項目通過積分系統 “成功獲得人氣”，但實際上並沒有解決任何真實需求。一旦代幣上市，挖礦用户將大量撤出，大多數人將停止使用該項目的產品，代幣價格將暴跌並逐漸變得毫無價值。這種策略反覆剝削散户投資者，最終導致他們對新發行的代幣完全失去興趣——這完全可以理解。更糟糕的是，2022 年 FTX 和 Terra Luna 的崩潰已經導致許多人對加密行業失去信任。</p>
<h2>三、市場關注點從加密轉向人工智能</h2>
<p>每個牛市都有其泡沫行業。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，這個泡沫是人工智能——就像 2021 年的加密貨幣一樣。各方資本正以離譜的估值湧入 AI 公司，只為乘上這股普遍樂觀的浪潮。</p>
<p>在 2017 年和 2021 年，大家都相信加密貨幣將改變世界。在 2025 年，大家都相信人工智能將重寫人類的未來。</p>
<p>在我看來，這兩個行業無疑都有改變世界的潛力。</p>
<p>但目前，對我們最直接的影響是許多大型投資機構已對加密市場失去興趣，轉而關注人工智能賽道。</p>
<p>要理解當前人工智能泡沫有多誇張，2025 年第一季度，57.9% 的風險投資流向了人工智能公司。與此同時，近年來流向區塊鏈公司的風險投資顯著減少。隨着資本從加密市場轉向人工智能，替代幣失去了在 2021 年牛市中獲得的投機溢價。我不確定加密行業如何能再次回到聚光燈下，吸引機構和散户投資者。但顯然，人工智能的主導地位對加密貨幣價格產生了負面影響。在我看來，正是這三個因素的結合使得這一市場週期特別困難。接下來，我想談談我對未來幾年市場趨勢的看法，至少是我希望行業能朝着的方向。前進的道路不幸的是，幾乎所有替代幣在 2025 年都下跌了至少 50%-70%。即便如此，如果現在有人問我：“加密貨幣死了嗎？” 我的回答仍然是絕對沒有。穩定幣和預測市場就是兩個典型例子；它們已經成功融入主流。此外，監管機構對加密行業的歡迎程度比以往任何時候都要高。在穩定幣等高度成功的加密領域，已經實現產品市場契合併產生可觀收入的項目在未來幾年可能會看到顯著的估值增長。然而，與此同時，我認為我們在過去幾個月經歷的市場崩潰在某種程度上是不可避免的。雖然加密市場中確實存在一些高質量的項目和強大的團隊，但還有更多的 “空氣項目”，其估值高達數十億美元，卻缺乏收入和產品市場契合。加密行業現在真正需要的是更多能夠解決普通人（而不僅僅是加密原住民）現實問題的產品。最重要的是，這些產品必須產生穩定的收入，並設計出可持續的代幣經濟模型，真正惠及代幣持有者。只有這樣，加密代幣才能再次成為有吸引力的投資目標。在過去幾年中，大多數去中心化應用（dApps）的商業模式基本上是 “出售自己的代幣”。但現在，投機溢價已經消退，流入加密行業的資本越來越稀缺。我相信市場將逐漸迴歸基本面。你可能會認為這個願景聽起來過於理想化和不可實現。但正是這樣的崩潰可能導致許多依賴於出售代幣的產品失敗，從而導致沒有產品或市場契合的項目的消亡，完成行業的洗牌。同時，已經實現盈利的項目生存率要高得多——畢竟，它們的收入足以覆蓋相當一部分（甚至全部）的開發成本。邏輯很簡單：一個成功的項目首先必須是一個盈利的企業。否則，我絕不會將其代幣視為長期投資。當然，總有例外。例如，儘管隱私幣缺乏健全和可持續的經濟模型，但最近表現異常出色。押注於當前熱門敍事（如當前的隱私概念）可能會帶來可觀的利潤，即使忽略基本面。但請記住，大多數敍事的生命週期最多隻有幾個月。因此，如果你選擇參與這樣的交易，要小心在炒作消退後成為接盤俠。不幸的是，99% 的加密項目將無法適應新的市場環境，最終消失。這就是為什麼現在的投資決策比以往任何時候都需要更仔細的選擇。然而，我堅信，對於那些沒有離開市場的人來説，仍然會有很多機會。問題不在於加密貨幣的復甦是否會發生，而在於何時發生。</p>

<p>DeFi Investor 的文章討論了 2025 年加密市場面臨的挑戰，強調了項目和代幣的爆炸性增長、通過積分系統人為膨脹數據，以及市場關注點向人工智能的轉移。作者指出資金的稀釋、代幣價格的崩潰，以及大型投資機構對加密市場失去興趣，因為它們轉向了人工智能</p>

<p>Author: DeFi Investor Translator: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：DeFi 投資者 譯者：山歐巴，金色財經</p>
</div><p>It's no exaggeration to say that 2025 was a brutal year for most crypto professionals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不誇張地説，2025 年對大多數加密專業人士來説是一個殘酷的年份。</p>
</div><p>I myself did not anticipate such a devastating market crash at the end of the year. But as traders and investors, our responsibility is to adapt to the ever-changing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我自己沒有預料到年末會出現如此毀滅性的市場崩盤。但作為交易者和投資者，我們的責任是適應不斷變化的市場。</p>
</div><p>Inaction or refusing to accept reality is never a viable strategy. I would like to share some thoughts: why this cycle is so difficult to grasp, and my outlook for the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不作為或拒絕接受現實從來不是一個可行的策略。我想分享一些想法：為什麼這個週期如此難以把握，以及我對未來的展望。</p>
</div><h2>I. Explosive Growth in the Number of Projects and Tokens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一、項目和代幣數量的爆炸性增長</h2>
</div><p>In 2017, there were only a few hundred projects in the crypto market. By 2021, this number had increased tenfold to several thousand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2017 年，加密市場上只有幾百個項目。到 2021 年，這個數字增加了十倍，達到了幾千個。</p>
</div><p>And by 2025, thanks to zero-barrier token issuance platforms like Pump Fun, the number of tokens on the market had surged to millions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2025 年，由於像 Pump Fun 這樣的零門檻代幣發行平台，市場上的代幣數量激增至數百萬個。</p>
</div><p>As a large number of project teams flock to compete for market attention, liquidity is inevitably excessively dispersed across a massive number of tokens, leading to severe dilution of funds. At the same time, the predatory nature of token economic models has become increasingly prominent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着大量項目團隊湧入競爭市場關注度，流動性不可避免地在大量代幣中過度分散，導致資金嚴重稀釋。同時，代幣經濟模型的掠奪性特徵愈發明顯。</p>
</div><p>While the overall utility of tokens has improved in this cycle, which is a commendable improvement, almost all newly issued tokens in the past few years have followed the trend of &#34;low circulating supply + high fully diluted valuation.&#34; Low circulating supply + high fully diluted valuation refers to a token having an extremely low circulating supply (usually no more than 10%) at issuance, but a very high fully diluted valuation. Low circulating supply artificially creates scarcity, reducing selling pressure in the early stages of TGE, thus pushing up the price. However, once the token unlocking rush arrives, a large influx of new supply into the market inevitably causes the price to collapse, resulting in huge losses for early investors. For many years, almost every newly issued token has succumbed to this fate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然在這個週期中，代幣的整體實用性有所改善，這是值得稱讚的進步，但過去幾年幾乎所有新發行的代幣都遵循了 “低流通供應 + 高完全稀釋估值” 的趨勢。低流通供應 + 高完全稀釋估值是指代幣在發行時流通供應極低（通常不超過 10%），但完全稀釋估值卻非常高。低流通供應人為地製造了稀缺性，減少了 TGE 早期階段的賣壓，從而推高價格。然而，一旦代幣解鎖潮來臨，大量新供應湧入市場不可避免地導致價格崩潰，給早期投資者帶來鉅額損失。多年來，幾乎每一個新發行的代幣都遭遇了這樣的命運。</p>
</div><h2>II. The points system artificially inflates the data bubble, creating a false impression of product-market fit</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>二、積分系統人為膨脹數據泡沫，造成產品市場契合的虛假印象</h2>
</div><p>The average return on investment for new tokens listed on Binance this year is only 0.25x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年在幣安上市的新代幣的平均投資回報率僅為 0.25 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422933_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>Data source: cryptorank.io</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：cryptorank.io</p>
</div><p>On the Bybit exchange, this figure is even lower, at only 0.11x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Bybit 交易所，這一數字甚至更低，僅為 0.11 倍。</p>
</div><p>This means that new tokens listed on these leading centralized exchanges in the past year have seen an average drop of 75%-89%! Clearly, one reason for this phenomenon is that startup failures are commonplace. However, I firmly believe that the core reason for the dismal performance of these tokens in their initial launch phase lies in the prevalence of points-based systems. Many projects that haven't yet issued tokens and lack quality products artificially create false demand through points-based systems in order to issue tokens at a high fully diluted valuation. Want to attract a large number of mining users and drive up TVL in the short term? Introduce a points-based system. Want to temporarily occupy the high ground in the crypto community's discourse? Launch a Kaito-related campaign. Of course, I'm not entirely against points or campaigns. If used properly, they can be excellent growth tools—for example, the Hyperliquid project successfully built a large user community through a points-based system. The problem is that many projects that haven't even launched a product – PMF – are also taking advantage of the points system to deliberately exaggerate their total locked value and trading volume, solely to sell at a high price when the token is listed. Before the token is issued, these projects lacking real value &#34;successfully gain popularity&#34; solely through the points system, but they haven't actually solved any real needs. Once the token is listed, mining users will withdraw en masse, most people will stop using the project's products, and the token price will plummet and gradually become worthless. This tactic repeatedly fleeces retail investors, ultimately causing them to completely lose interest in newly issued tokens – which is entirely understandable. To make matters worse, the collapses of FTX and Terra Luna in 2022 had already caused many people to lose trust in the crypto industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着過去一年在這些領先的中心化交易所上市的新代幣平均下跌了 75%-89%！顯然，這一現象的一個原因是創業失敗屢見不鮮。然而，我堅信這些代幣在初始發行階段表現不佳的核心原因在於積分制的普遍存在。許多尚未發行代幣且缺乏優質產品的項目通過積分制人為製造虛假需求，以便以高完全稀釋估值發行代幣。想要吸引大量挖礦用户並在短期內提升 TVL？引入積分制。想要暫時佔據加密社區話語權的高地？推出與 Kaito 相關的活動。當然，我並不是完全反對積分或活動。如果使用得當，它們可以成為優秀的增長工具——例如，Hyperliquid 項目通過積分制成功建立了龐大的用户社區。問題在於，許多甚至還未推出產品的項目——PMF——也在利用積分系統故意誇大其總鎖倉價值和交易量，單純為了在代幣上市時以高價出售。在代幣發行之前，這些缺乏真實價值的項目通過積分系統 “成功獲得人氣”，但實際上並沒有解決任何真實需求。一旦代幣上市，挖礦用户將大量撤出，大多數人將停止使用該項目的產品，代幣價格將暴跌並逐漸變得毫無價值。這種策略反覆剝削散户投資者，最終導致他們對新發行的代幣完全失去興趣——這完全可以理解。更糟糕的是，2022 年 FTX 和 Terra Luna 的崩潰已經導致許多人對加密行業失去信任。</p>
</div><h2>III. Market Attention Shifts from Crypto to Artificial Intelligence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三、市場關注點從加密轉向人工智能</h2>
</div><p>Every bull market has its own bubble sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每個牛市都有其泡沫行業。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, that bubble is artificial intelligence—just like cryptocurrency in 2021. Capital from all sides is rushing into AI companies at outrageous valuations, just to ride this wave of universal optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，這個泡沫是人工智能——就像 2021 年的加密貨幣一樣。各方資本正以離譜的估值湧入 AI 公司，只為乘上這股普遍樂觀的浪潮。</p>
</div><p>In 2017 and 2021, everyone believed that cryptocurrency would revolutionize the world. In 2025, everyone believes that artificial intelligence will rewrite the future of humanity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2017 年和 2021 年，大家都相信加密貨幣將改變世界。在 2025 年，大家都相信人工智能將重寫人類的未來。</p>
</div><p>In my view, both industries undoubtedly have the potential to change the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，這兩個行業無疑都有改變世界的潛力。</p>
</div><p>But for now, the most direct impact on us is that many large investment institutions have lost interest in the crypto market and turned their attention to the artificial intelligence track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前，對我們最直接的影響是許多大型投資機構已對加密市場失去興趣，轉而關注人工智能賽道。</p>
</div><p>To understand just how exaggerated the current AI bubble is, in the first quarter of 2025, 57.9% of venture capital flowed to AI companies. Meanwhile, venture capital flowing to blockchain companies has shrunk significantly in recent years. As capital shifts from the crypto market to AI, altcoins have lost the speculative premium they gained in the 2021 bull market. I'm not sure how the crypto industry can return to the spotlight and attract institutional and retail investors again. But it's clear that AI's dominance has negatively impacted cryptocurrency prices. In my opinion, it's the combination of these three factors that has made this market cycle particularly difficult. Next, I want to talk about my views on the market trend in the next few years, at least the direction I hope the industry can move in. The Way Forward Unfortunately, almost all altcoins fell by at least 50%-70% in 2025. Even so, if someone were to ask me now, &#34;Is cryptocurrency dead?&#34; my answer would still be absolutely not. Stablecoins and prediction markets are two prime examples; they have successfully integrated into the mainstream. Moreover, regulators are more welcoming to the crypto industry than ever before. In highly successful crypto sectors like stablecoins, projects that have achieved product-market fit and generated substantial revenue are likely to see significant valuation increases in the coming years. However, at the same time, I believe the market crash we've experienced in the past few months was, to some extent, inevitable. While there are indeed some high-quality projects with strong teams in the crypto market, there are many more &#34;air projects&#34; with valuations in the billions of dollars, yet lacking both revenue and product-market fit. What the crypto industry truly needs right now is more products that solve real-world problems for ordinary people (not just crypto natives). Most importantly, these products must generate stable revenue and be designed with sustainable token economic models that genuinely benefit token holders. Only then can crypto tokens become attractive investment targets again. In the past few years, the business model of most dApps has essentially been &#34;selling their own tokens.&#34; But now, the speculative premium has faded, and capital flowing into the crypto industry is increasingly scarce. I believe the market will gradually return to fundamentals. You might think this vision sounds too idealistic and unattainable. But it is precisely a crash like this that could cause many products that rely on selling tokens to fail, leading to the demise of projects with no product or market fit, thus completing an industry reshuffle. Meanwhile, projects that have already achieved profitability have a much higher survival rate—after all, their revenue is enough to cover a significant portion (or even all) of their development costs. The logic is simple: a successful project must first and foremost be a profitable business. Otherwise, I would never consider its token as a long-term investment. Of course, there are always exceptions. For example, privacy coins, despite lacking a sound and sustainable economic model, have recently performed exceptionally well. Betting on current hot narratives (such as the current privacy concept) can potentially yield substantial profits, even ignoring fundamentals. But remember, most narratives have a lifespan of only a few months at most. Therefore, if you choose to participate in such transactions, be wary of becoming a bagholder after the hype dies down. Unfortunately, 99% of crypto projects will be unable to adapt to the new market environment and will eventually disappear. This is why investment decisions now require more careful selection than ever before. However, I firmly believe that there will still be plenty of opportunities for those who haven't left the market. The question isn't whether the cryptocurrency resurgence will happen, but when.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要理解當前人工智能泡沫有多誇張，2025 年第一季度，57.9% 的風險投資流向了人工智能公司。與此同時，近年來流向區塊鏈公司的風險投資顯著減少。隨着資本從加密市場轉向人工智能，替代幣失去了在 2021 年牛市中獲得的投機溢價。我不確定加密行業如何能再次回到聚光燈下，吸引機構和散户投資者。但顯然，人工智能的主導地位對加密貨幣價格產生了負面影響。在我看來，正是這三個因素的結合使得這一市場週期特別困難。接下來，我想談談我對未來幾年市場趨勢的看法，至少是我希望行業能朝着的方向。前進的道路不幸的是，幾乎所有替代幣在 2025 年都下跌了至少 50%-70%。即便如此，如果現在有人問我：“加密貨幣死了嗎？” 我的回答仍然是絕對沒有。穩定幣和預測市場就是兩個典型例子；它們已經成功融入主流。此外，監管機構對加密行業的歡迎程度比以往任何時候都要高。在穩定幣等高度成功的加密領域，已經實現產品市場契合併產生可觀收入的項目在未來幾年可能會看到顯著的估值增長。然而，與此同時，我認為我們在過去幾個月經歷的市場崩潰在某種程度上是不可避免的。雖然加密市場中確實存在一些高質量的項目和強大的團隊，但還有更多的 “空氣項目”，其估值高達數十億美元，卻缺乏收入和產品市場契合。加密行業現在真正需要的是更多能夠解決普通人（而不僅僅是加密原住民）現實問題的產品。最重要的是，這些產品必須產生穩定的收入，並設計出可持續的代幣經濟模型，真正惠及代幣持有者。只有這樣，加密代幣才能再次成為有吸引力的投資目標。在過去幾年中，大多數去中心化應用（dApps）的商業模式基本上是 “出售自己的代幣”。但現在，投機溢價已經消退，流入加密行業的資本越來越稀缺。我相信市場將逐漸迴歸基本面。你可能會認為這個願景聽起來過於理想化和不可實現。但正是這樣的崩潰可能導致許多依賴於出售代幣的產品失敗，從而導致沒有產品或市場契合的項目的消亡，完成行業的洗牌。同時，已經實現盈利的項目生存率要高得多——畢竟，它們的收入足以覆蓋相當一部分（甚至全部）的開發成本。邏輯很簡單：一個成功的項目首先必須是一個盈利的企業。否則，我絕不會將其代幣視為長期投資。當然，總有例外。例如，儘管隱私幣缺乏健全和可持續的經濟模型，但最近表現異常出色。押注於當前熱門敍事（如當前的隱私概念）可能會帶來可觀的利潤，即使忽略基本面。但請記住，大多數敍事的生命週期最多隻有幾個月。因此，如果你選擇參與這樣的交易，要小心在炒作消退後成為接盤俠。不幸的是，99% 的加密項目將無法適應新的市場環境，最終消失。這就是為什麼現在的投資決策比以往任何時候都需要更仔細的選擇。然而，我堅信，對於那些沒有離開市場的人來説，仍然會有很多機會。問題不在於加密貨幣的復甦是否會發生，而在於何時發生。</p>
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為什麼這個週期如此艱難？