<p>來源：Coinbase；編譯：金色財經</p>
<p>Coinbase 最近發佈了《2026 年加密市場展望》報告。在報告中，Coinbase 深入探討了將塑造未來一年加密經濟的各種因素，從 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 的詳細展望，到最新的監管、市場結構和代幣化發展。此外，我們還將分析比特幣四年週期的影響、量子計算帶來的風險，以及以太坊最新的 Fusaka 硬分叉和索拉納即將推出的 Alpenglow 等重大平台升級的影響。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="530" height="285" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>以下是報告的關鍵要點：</p>
<h2>市場趨勢</h2>
<h3><strong>謹慎樂觀：</strong></h3>
<p>Coinbase 認為，美國經濟依然具有韌性，持續改善的勞動生產率可以緩衝經濟增長放緩的影響。因此，我們認為 2026 年上半年加密貨幣市場的格局更接近於 &#34;1996&#34; 而非 &#34;1999&#34;（也就是説，我們對明年持樂觀態度），但我們也承認市場仍然存在相當大的不確定性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="529" height="285" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>監管進展：</h3>
<p>在 2025 年，我們見證了美國和全球監管環境的里程碑式發展，促成了新的現貨加密貨幣 ETF、數字資產國庫（DAT）的出現，並推動了更廣泛的機構參與。我們相信，明確的全球框架將繼續改變 2026 年機構在戰略、風險和合規方面的實踐。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="534" height="283" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>機構採用：</h3>
<p>DAT 在 2025 年擴大了其買家基礎，但最近出現了以估值為驅動的整合。我們預計 2026 年將出現 &#34;DAT 2.0&#34; 模型，未來版本將不再侷限於簡單的資產積累，而是專注於主權區塊空間的專業交易、存儲和採購，將區塊空間視為數字經濟中的關鍵商品。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="533" height="283" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>代幣經濟學 2.0：</h3>
<p>隨着政策的明確，代幣持有者的經濟利益與平台使用相聯繫，協議正朝着價值捕獲的方向發展——包括費用分享、回購和 &#34;買入並銷燬 &#34;等機制。我們認為，這標誌着從純敍事驅動的 beta 模型向持久的、與收入相關的模型的轉變。</p>
<h2>技術變革</h2>
<h3>隱私需求：</h3>
<p>隨着機構採用的增加，用户對控制和保密的需求也在增長。</p>
<p>我們預計零知識證明（ZKP）和完全同態加密（FHE）等技術將繼續發展，隨着密碼基礎設施的普及，鏈上隱私的使用將顯著增加。AI × 加密貨幣：自主代理系統需要開放、可編程的支付方式。像 x402 這樣的協議能夠實現高頻微交易結算，並支持能夠啓動、管理和保護鏈上服務的代理。** 應用特定鏈：** 專用區塊鏈網絡的迅速普及正在重塑加密基礎設施的競爭格局。我們認為，最終目標是構建具有原生互操作性和共享安全性的網絡架構，而不是由無數孤立系統組成的無盡系統。** 代幣化：** 現實世界資產代幣化（RWA）在 2025 年實現了顯著增長，代幣化股權代表了一個新興領域。考慮到其原子組合性，其快速增長前景極具吸引力，DeFi 風格的貸款價值比（LTV）往往遠超傳統保證金框架。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="522" height="257" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h2>下一個重大事件</h2>
<h3>加密衍生品的組合性質：</h3>
<p>永續合約正從孤立的槓桿交易轉向核心 DeFi 功能——與借貸、質押和對沖相結合。隨着全球零售投資者參與美國股票交易的持續增長，我們相信，股票永續期貨合約有望成為下一代零售交易者的首選，提供 24/7 交易和資本效率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="530" height="273" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>預測市場：</h3>
<p>預計交易量將在 2026 年進一步擴大，因為美國税收政策的變化可能促使用户轉向這些基於衍生品的市場。儘管市場碎片化可能帶來風險，但我們相信預測市場聚合器有望成為主導的接口層，周交易量可能達到數十億美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="536" height="287" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>穩定幣和支付：</h3>
<p>穩定幣已鞏固其在加密生態系統中的主要用例地位。我們的隨機模型預測，到 2028 年底，穩定幣的總市值預計將達到約 1.2 萬億美元。預計在跨境交易結算、匯款和薪資平台等領域將出現更多新的應用場景。最後，我們相信加密行業現在已經準備好從理論走向實踐，並將越來越多地與核心金融系統整合。未來的機會巨大，但其實現依賴於在產品質量、合規性和以用户為中心的設計等領域的強大執行。通過關注這些領域，我們可以確保下一波創新惠及每個人，隨時隨地。</p>

COIN

<p>Coinbase 的《2026 年加密市場展望》報告強調了塑造加密經濟的關鍵趨勢，包括對市場增長的謹慎樂觀、監管進展和機構採用。報告討論了零知識證明和代幣化等技術進步，並預測加密衍生品和穩定幣的增長。報告強調，為了實現加密行業未來的機會，需要在產品質量、合規性和以用户為中心的設計方面進行強有力的執行</p>

<p>Source: Coinbase; Compiled by: Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Coinbase；編譯：金色財經</p>
</div><p>Coinbase recently released its &#34;2026 Crypto Market Outlook&#34; report. In the report, Coinbase delves into the various factors that will shape the crypto economy in the coming year, from detailed outlooks for BTC, ETH, and SOL, to the latest developments in regulation, market structure, and tokenization. Furthermore, we will analyze the impact of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the risks posed by quantum computing, and the impact of major platform upgrades, such as Ethereum's latest Fusaka hard fork and Solana's upcoming Alpenglow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 最近發佈了《2026 年加密市場展望》報告。在報告中，Coinbase 深入探討了將塑造未來一年加密經濟的各種因素，從 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 的詳細展望，到最新的監管、市場結構和代幣化發展。此外，我們還將分析比特幣四年週期的影響、量子計算帶來的風險，以及以太坊最新的 Fusaka 硬分叉和索拉納即將推出的 Alpenglow 等重大平台升級的影響。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422924_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<p>The following are the key points of the report:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是報告的關鍵要點：</p>
</div><h2>Market Trends</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場趨勢</h2>
</div><h3><strong>Cautiously Optimistic:</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>謹慎樂觀：</strong></h3>
</div><p>Coinbase believes that the US economy remains resilient, and continuously improving labor productivity can buffer the impact of slowing economic growth. Therefore, we believe that the cryptocurrency market landscape in the first half of 2026 is closer to &#34;1996&#34; than &#34;1999&#34; (that is, we are optimistic about next year), but we also acknowledge that there is still considerable uncertainty in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 認為，美國經濟依然具有韌性，持續改善的勞動生產率可以緩衝經濟增長放緩的影響。因此，我們認為 2026 年上半年加密貨幣市場的格局更接近於 &#34;1996&#34; 而非 &#34;1999&#34;（也就是説，我們對明年持樂觀態度），但我們也承認市場仍然存在相當大的不確定性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422925_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Regulatory Progress:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>監管進展：</h3>
</div><p>In 2025, we witnessed landmark developments in the US and global regulatory landscape, leading to the emergence of new spot cryptocurrency ETFs, digital asset treasuries (DATs), and driving broader institutional participation. We believe that a clearer global framework will continue to transform institutional practices in strategy, risk, and compliance in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，我們見證了美國和全球監管環境的里程碑式發展，促成了新的現貨加密貨幣 ETF、數字資產國庫（DAT）的出現，並推動了更廣泛的機構參與。我們相信，明確的全球框架將繼續改變 2026 年機構在戰略、風險和合規方面的實踐。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422926_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Institutional Adoption:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>機構採用：</h3>
</div><p>DAT expanded its buyer base in 2025, but recently valuation-driven consolidation has emerged. We expect a &#34;DAT 2.0&#34; model to emerge in 2026, where future versions will no longer be limited to simple asset accumulation, but will focus on the professional trading, storage, and procurement of sovereign block space, viewing block space as a key commodity in the digital economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DAT 在 2025 年擴大了其買家基礎，但最近出現了以估值為驅動的整合。我們預計 2026 年將出現 &#34;DAT 2.0&#34; 模型，未來版本將不再侷限於簡單的資產積累，而是專注於主權區塊空間的專業交易、存儲和採購，將區塊空間視為數字經濟中的關鍵商品。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422927_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Token Economics 2.0:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>代幣經濟學 2.0：</h3>
</div><p>With policy clarity, the economic interests of token holders are linked to platform usage, and protocols are moving towards value capture—including mechanisms such as fee sharing, buybacks, and &#34;buy-and-burn.&#34; We believe this marks an emerging shift from purely narrative-driven beta models to persistent, revenue-linked models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着政策的明確，代幣持有者的經濟利益與平台使用相聯繫，協議正朝着價值捕獲的方向發展——包括費用分享、回購和 &#34;買入並銷燬 &#34;等機制。我們認為，這標誌着從純敍事驅動的 beta 模型向持久的、與收入相關的模型的轉變。</p>
</div><h2>Technological Change</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技術變革</h2>
</div><h3>Privacy Needs:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>隱私需求：</h3>
</div><p>As institutional adoption increases, users' demands for control and confidentiality are also growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着機構採用的增加，用户對控制和保密的需求也在增長。</p>
</div><p>We anticipate continued development of technologies such as Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) and Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), and a significant increase in the use of on-chain privacy as cryptographic infrastructure becomes more widespread. AI × Cryptocurrency: Autonomous agent systems require open, programmable payment methods. Protocols such as x402 enable high-frequency microtransaction settlement and support agents that can launch, manage, and secure on-chain services. **Application-Specific Chains:** The proliferation of specialized blockchain networks is rapidly reshaping the competitive landscape of crypto infrastructure. We believe the ultimate goal is to build a network architecture with native interoperability and shared security, rather than an endless system composed of countless isolated systems. **Tokenization:** Real-world asset tokenization (RWA) saw significant growth in 2025, with tokenized equity representing an emerging field. Its rapid growth prospects are highly attractive given its atomic composability, with DeFi-style loan-to-value (LTV) ratios often far exceeding traditional margin frameworks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們預計零知識證明（ZKP）和完全同態加密（FHE）等技術將繼續發展，隨着密碼基礎設施的普及，鏈上隱私的使用將顯著增加。AI × 加密貨幣：自主代理系統需要開放、可編程的支付方式。像 x402 這樣的協議能夠實現高頻微交易結算，並支持能夠啓動、管理和保護鏈上服務的代理。** 應用特定鏈：** 專用區塊鏈網絡的迅速普及正在重塑加密基礎設施的競爭格局。我們認為，最終目標是構建具有原生互操作性和共享安全性的網絡架構，而不是由無數孤立系統組成的無盡系統。** 代幣化：** 現實世界資產代幣化（RWA）在 2025 年實現了顯著增長，代幣化股權代表了一個新興領域。考慮到其原子組合性，其快速增長前景極具吸引力，DeFi 風格的貸款價值比（LTV）往往遠超傳統保證金框架。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422929_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h2>The Next Big Event</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一個重大事件</h2>
</div><h3>The Combinatorial Nature of Crypto Derivatives:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>加密衍生品的組合性質：</h3>
</div><p>Perpetual contracts are moving from isolated leveraged trading to a core DeFi function—combined with lending, staking, and hedging. With the continued growth of global retail investor participation in US stock trading, we believe that equity perpetual futures contracts are poised to become the preferred choice for the next generation of retail traders, offering both 24/7 trading and capital efficiency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永續合約正從孤立的槓桿交易轉向核心 DeFi 功能——與借貸、質押和對沖相結合。隨着全球零售投資者參與美國股票交易的持續增長，我們相信，股票永續期貨合約有望成為下一代零售交易者的首選，提供 24/7 交易和資本效率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422930_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Prediction Markets:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>預測市場：</h3>
</div><p>Trading volumes are expected to expand further in 2026 as changes in US tax policy may prompt users to shift to these derivatives-based markets. While market fragmentation may pose a risk, we believe prediction market aggregators are poised to become the dominant interface layer, with weekly trading volumes potentially reaching billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計交易量將在 2026 年進一步擴大，因為美國税收政策的變化可能促使用户轉向這些基於衍生品的市場。儘管市場碎片化可能帶來風險，但我們相信預測市場聚合器有望成為主導的接口層，周交易量可能達到數十億美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.cn/7422931_watermarknone.png"/></p>
<h3>Stablecoins and Payments:</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>穩定幣和支付：</h3>
</div><p>Stablecoins have solidified their position as the primary use case in the crypto ecosystem. Our stochastic model predicts that the total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028. More new application scenarios are expected to emerge in areas such as cross-border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms. Finally, we believe the crypto industry is now ready to move from theory to practice and will increasingly integrate with the core financial system. The future opportunities are enormous, but their realization depends on strong execution in areas such as product quality, regulatory compliance, and user-centric design. By focusing on these areas, we can ensure that the next wave of innovation benefits everyone, anytime, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穩定幣已鞏固其在加密生態系統中的主要用例地位。我們的隨機模型預測，到 2028 年底，穩定幣的總市值預計將達到約 1.2 萬億美元。預計在跨境交易結算、匯款和薪資平台等領域將出現更多新的應用場景。最後，我們相信加密行業現在已經準備好從理論走向實踐，並將越來越多地與核心金融系統整合。未來的機會巨大，但其實現依賴於在產品質量、合規性和以用户為中心的設計等領域的強大執行。通過關注這些領域，我們可以確保下一波創新惠及每個人，隨時隨地。</p>
</div>

Coinbase: Crypto Market Outlook for 2026

- Coinbase 發佈《2026 年加密市場展望》報告，分析加密經濟的未來因素。  
- 報告指出，美國經濟韌性增強將影響 2026 年市場，預計加密貨幣領域將進一步發展。  
- 預計穩定幣市場到 2028 年總市值將達約 1.2 萬億美元，將深度融入核心金融系統。

Coinbase：2026 年加密貨幣市場展望