<p>中國電動車製造商 <strong>蔚來汽車</strong>（NIO +1.22%）的股價已跌至 4.95 美元，比 2025 年的高點低了超過 35%，距離歷史最低點不到 2 美元。</p>
<p>考慮到這家汽車製造商銷售增長的速度，當前股價似乎是一個顯而易見的買入機會。但蔚來面臨着三個重大風險。投資者在購買股票之前應仔細考慮這些風險，即使在這個折扣價位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NDc2MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwNjI1Nzg2NC0xMjAweDc2Ny0wNGQ2OWY5LTEuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1199" height="767" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NDc2MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwNjI1Nzg2NC0xMjAweDc2Ny0wNGQ2OWY5LTEuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>風險一：蔚來仍未實現盈利</h2>
<p>隨着銷售額以令人印象深刻的兩位數百分比增長，蔚來的收入也在飆升。11 月份，公司交付了 36,275 輛汽車，同比增長 76.3%。這與其創紀錄的 10 月份交付量 40,397 輛相差不遠，後者同比增長 92.6%。</p>
<p>儘管這些交付數字創下了紀錄，且同比增長令人印象深刻，但蔚來並未盈利。事實上，銷售的汽車越多，其盈利能力的數字似乎越糟糕。在 2021 年錄得 8.136 億美元的淨虧損後，2022 年的淨虧損增至 16 億美元，2023 年為 22 億美元，2024 年為 30 億美元，而其收入則從 56 億美元飆升至 91 億美元。</p>
<p>然而，公司可能正在扭轉局面。其季度淨虧損在過去三個季度中逐漸縮小，管理層據報道旨在使第四季度成為首次盈利的季度。如果成功，股價可能會上漲；如果不成功，股價可能會進一步下跌。</p>
<p>廣告</p>
<p>即使蔚來設法實現一個盈利的季度，中國電動車市場的競爭仍在加劇，因此維持盈利能力可能會變得更加困難。</p>
<h2>風險二：激勵措施消失</h2>
<p>中國政府採取了一系列措施來幫助啓動國內電動車產業，通過 2022 年提供了可觀的購車補貼，目前則提供購車的全額税收減免。然而，這些減免措施將逐步被淘汰，從下個月開始。</p>
<p>政府將不再對最高達人民幣 30,000 元（約合 4,260 美元）的電動車全額購車價格提供税收減免，而是僅在 2026 年和 2027 年提供最高約 2,130 美元的 50% 減免。之後，減免措施將到期。</p>
<p>在美國，我們看到税收激勵措施的取消對電動車銷售的影響，當 7,500 美元的税收抵免在 9 月底逐步取消時，電動車銷售在 10 月和 11 月驟降。類似的情況可能會在 2026 年發生在蔚來的銷售上，這可能會對其收入和股價產生重大影響。</p>
<p>也就是説，蔚來故意瞄準低端電動車市場，推出了幾款價格較低的車型和其標誌性的電池更換計劃，這進一步降低了購車價格。因此，減少的税收激勵措施在購買蔚來時可能會更具吸引力，這可能改善其相對於其他中國汽車製造商的競爭地位。但即使競爭地位有所改善，也不能保證足以抵消整體購買量可能下降的影響。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05JTy5wbmcmdz0xMjg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="蔚來股票報價" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05JTy5wbmcmdz0xMjg"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: NIO</h2>
<p>蔚來汽車</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(1.22%) $0.06</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$4.99</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$10B</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$4.98 - $5.03</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$3.02 - $8.02</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>33K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>58M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>11.25%</p>
<h2>風險三：貿易壁壘</h2>
<p>蔚來的增長論點之一是其積極的國際擴張努力。儘管其大多數汽車在中國銷售，但它已經在五個歐洲國家啓動了銷售和服務網絡，並計劃擴展到另外七個國家。</p>
<p>然而，在 2024 年底，歐盟對中國電動車實施了嚴厲的關税，稱其為 “不公平補貼”。這些關税範圍從 17% 到 35.3%，對所有在歐洲銷售的中國電動車製造商構成了巨大障礙，但對像蔚來這樣高度依賴價格競爭的汽車製造商尤其成問題。這些關税將在五年內到期，這使得電動車製造商的歐洲戰略充滿不確定性。</p>
<h2>蔚來股票值得關注嗎？</h2>
<p>考慮到蔚來目前的風險，股價低於 5 美元也就不足為奇，這相當於僅為過去銷售的 1.1 倍。</p>
<p>雖然蔚來有可能在第四季度實現盈利，並在競爭激烈的環境和中國電動車市場激勵措施消失的情況下維持盈利能力，但也有很多事情可能會出錯。投資者應意識到這些風險，並且只應投入他們能夠承受損失的資金到這隻投機性股票中。</p>

蔚來汽車

蔚來-SW

<p>蔚來汽車的股票價格低於 5 美元，但投資者在購買前應考慮風險。儘管銷售增長令人印象深刻，蔚來仍然處於虧損狀態，淨虧損每年都在增加。中國的電動車激勵政策正在逐步退出，這可能會影響銷售。歐盟對中國電動車的關税給蔚來的國際擴張帶來了挑戰。雖然蔚來旨在實現盈利，但投資者應保持謹慎，僅投資他們能夠承受損失的資金</p>

<p>The share price of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker <strong>Nio</strong>( NIO +1.22%) has fallen to $4.95, more than 35% off its 2025 high and less than $2 away from its all-time lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國電動車製造商 <strong>蔚來汽車</strong>（NIO +1.22%）的股價已跌至 4.95 美元，比 2025 年的高點低了超過 35%，距離歷史最低點不到 2 美元。</p>
</div><p>Given how quickly the automaker has been growing its sales, it might seem like a no-brainer buy at the current stock price. But there are three big risks ahead for Nio. Investors should consider them carefully before buying the stock, even at this discounted price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這家汽車製造商銷售增長的速度，當前股價似乎是一個顯而易見的買入機會。但蔚來面臨着三個重大風險。投資者在購買股票之前應仔細考慮這些風險，即使在這個折扣價位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NDc2MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwNjI1Nzg2NC0xMjAweDc2Ny0wNGQ2OWY5LTEuanBnJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="An electric vehicle at a charging station." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F847606%2Fgettyimages-1406257864-1200x767-04d69f9-1.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Risk No. 1: Profitability remains elusive for Nio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險一：蔚來仍未實現盈利</h2>
</div><p>Nio's revenue has been soaring as its sales have grown by impressive double-digit percentages. In November, the company made 36,275 vehicle deliveries, a year-over-year increase of 76.3%. That's not far off from its record-setting October deliveries of 40,397 vehicles, a 92.6% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着銷售額以令人印象深刻的兩位數百分比增長，蔚來的收入也在飆升。11 月份，公司交付了 36,275 輛汽車，同比增長 76.3%。這與其創紀錄的 10 月份交付量 40,397 輛相差不遠，後者同比增長 92.6%。</p>
</div><p>Despite these record delivery numbers and impressive year-over-year growth, Nio isn't profitable. In fact, the more vehicles it sells, the worse its profitability numbers seem to get. After posting a net loss of $813.6 million in 2021, its net losses grew to $1.6 billion in 2022, $2.2 billion in 2023, and $3 billion in 2024, all while its revenue soared from $5.6 billion to $9.1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這些交付數字創下了紀錄，且同比增長令人印象深刻，但蔚來並未盈利。事實上，銷售的汽車越多，其盈利能力的數字似乎越糟糕。在 2021 年錄得 8.136 億美元的淨虧損後，2022 年的淨虧損增至 16 億美元，2023 年為 22 億美元，2024 年為 30 億美元，而其收入則從 56 億美元飆升至 91 億美元。</p>
</div><p>However, the company might be turning things around. Its quarterly net losses shrank sequentially over the last three periods, and management reportedly aims to make the fourth quarter the first-ever profitable quarter. If it succeeds, shares will likely rise; if not, they are likely to fall further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，公司可能正在扭轉局面。其季度淨虧損在過去三個季度中逐漸縮小，管理層據報道旨在使第四季度成為首次盈利的季度。如果成功，股價可能會上漲；如果不成功，股價可能會進一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>Advertisement</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>廣告</p>
</div><p>Even if Nio manages to eke out a single profitable quarter, competition in the Chinese EV market is continuing to heat up, so maintaining that profitability may get even more difficult as time goes on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使蔚來設法實現一個盈利的季度，中國電動車市場的競爭仍在加劇，因此維持盈利能力可能會變得更加困難。</p>
</div><h2>Risk No. 2: Vanishing incentives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險二：激勵措施消失</h2>
</div><p>The Chinese government pulled out all the stops to help jump-start the country's electric car industry, offering substantial purchase subsidies for EVs through 2022 and currently offering full tax exemptions for purchasing a vehicle. However, those exemptions are gradually being phased out, starting next month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國政府採取了一系列措施來幫助啓動國內電動車產業，通過 2022 年提供了可觀的購車補貼，目前則提供購車的全額税收減免。然而，這些減免措施將逐步被淘汰，從下個月開始。</p>
</div><p>Instead of offering a tax exemption on the full purchase price of an EV up to RMB 30,000 (about $4,260), the government will only offer a 50% exemption worth up to about $2,130 in 2026 and 2027. After that, the exemptions are set to expire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府將不再對最高達人民幣 30,000 元（約合 4,260 美元）的電動車全額購車價格提供税收減免，而是僅在 2026 年和 2027 年提供最高約 2,130 美元的 50% 減免。之後，減免措施將到期。</p>
</div><p>Here in the U.S., we saw the impact that the removal of tax incentives could have on EV sales when the $7,500 tax credits were phased out at the end of September, and EV sales plummeted in October and November. The same thing could easily happen to Nio's sales in 2026, which could have a big impact on its revenue and its share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國，我們看到税收激勵措施的取消對電動車銷售的影響，當 7,500 美元的税收抵免在 9 月底逐步取消時，電動車銷售在 10 月和 11 月驟降。類似的情況可能會在 2026 年發生在蔚來的銷售上，這可能會對其收入和股價產生重大影響。</p>
</div><p>That said, Nio has deliberately targeted the lower-end EV market by offering several less-expensive vehicles and its signature battery swap program, which reduces the purchase price of a vehicle even further. Thus, the reduced tax incentives are likely to go further when buying a Nio, which might improve its competitive standing relative to other Chinese automakers. But there's no guarantee that even an improved competitive standing will be enough to offset a likely drop in overall purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，蔚來故意瞄準低端電動車市場，推出了幾款價格較低的車型和其標誌性的電池更換計劃，這進一步降低了購車價格。因此，減少的税收激勵措施在購買蔚來時可能會更具吸引力，這可能改善其相對於其他中國汽車製造商的競爭地位。但即使競爭地位有所改善，也不能保證足以抵消整體購買量可能下降的影響。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05JTy5wbmcmdz0xMjg" alt="Nio Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNIO.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: NIO</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSE: NIO</h2>
</div><p>Nio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蔚來汽車</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(1.22%) $0.06</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.22%) $0.06</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$4.99</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.99</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$10B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$10B</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$4.98 - $5.03</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.98 - $5.03</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$3.02 - $8.02</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3.02 - $8.02</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>33K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>33K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>58M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>58M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>11.25%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11.25%</p>
</div><h2>Risk No. 3: Trade barriers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險三：貿易壁壘</h2>
</div><p>Part of the growth thesis for Nio is its aggressive international expansion efforts. While the vast majority of its cars are sold in China, it has already launched sales and service networks in five European countries and is planning to expand into seven more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蔚來的增長論點之一是其積極的國際擴張努力。儘管其大多數汽車在中國銷售，但它已經在五個歐洲國家啓動了銷售和服務網絡，並計劃擴展到另外七個國家。</p>
</div><p>However, in late 2024, the E.U. implemented stiff tariffs on Chinese EVs, calling them &#34;unfairly subsidized.&#34; These tariffs, which range from 17% to 35.3%, are a huge barrier for all Chinese EV makers that sell in Europe, but are especially problematic for a carmaker like Nio, which leans heavily on affordability. The tariffs aren't set to expire for five years, which throws the EV maker's European strategy into doubt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 2024 年底，歐盟對中國電動車實施了嚴厲的關税，稱其為 “不公平補貼”。這些關税範圍從 17% 到 35.3%，對所有在歐洲銷售的中國電動車製造商構成了巨大障礙，但對像蔚來這樣高度依賴價格競爭的汽車製造商尤其成問題。這些關税將在五年內到期，這使得電動車製造商的歐洲戰略充滿不確定性。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nio stock worth a look?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蔚來股票值得關注嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Given how risky Nio looks right now, it's no wonder it's trading at less than $5, which translates to just 1.1 times trailing sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到蔚來目前的風險，股價低於 5 美元也就不足為奇，這相當於僅為過去銷售的 1.1 倍。</p>
</div><p>While it's possible that Nio will manage to turn in a profitable fourth quarter and then navigate the competitive landscape and the vanishing tax incentives in the Chinese EV market to maintain that profitability, there's a lot that could go wrong. Investors should be aware of the risks and should only put money they can afford to lose into this speculative stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然蔚來有可能在第四季度實現盈利，並在競爭激烈的環境和中國電動車市場激勵措施消失的情況下維持盈利能力，但也有很多事情可能會出錯。投資者應意識到這些風險，並且只應投入他們能夠承受損失的資金到這隻投機性股票中。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nio Stock While It's Below $5 a Share?

- 中國電動車製造商蔚來的股價跌至 4.95 美元，較 2025 年高點下跌超 35%。  
- 三個主要風險包括盈利能力難以實現、購車補貼逐漸減少及貿易壁壘加重。  
- 投資者應謹慎權衡風險，避免過度投機。

在蔚來汽車股價低於每股 5 美元時，你是否應該購買該股票？