<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg/query-dj0zYmJmNDVkNGJh?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg/query-dj0zYmJmNDVkNGJh"/></p>
<p><em>來源</em></p>
<p>在我收起鍵盤迎接假期之前，我認為展望未來，看看歷史週期對明年股市的展望可能是個好主意。</p>
<p>是的，確實如此，投資者在進入 2026 年時有很多因素需要考慮，比如盈利前景、經濟狀況（以及分化的消費者）、美聯儲的預期、通貨膨脹水平，以及當然，還有關於人工智能交易的辯論（泡沫與革命）。然而，如果我沒記錯的話，每年年初通常都會有類似的説法。</p>
<p>正因如此，我喜歡在每個新的一年開始時對未來有一些預期。需要明確的是，我並不是根據週期、直覺、我的展望，甚至是月相來投資。但我發現，查看歷史週期的表現往往能為未來一年提供一個不錯的路線圖。</p>
<p>雖然我必須承認我的水晶球仍在修理中，市場常常受到不可預見事件的影響——如地緣政治、政治政策、經濟意外，甚至泡沫破裂——但歷史週期分析多年來證明是一個有用的指南。</p>
<p>正如我過去提到的，有時這項工作非常準確，有時則不然。但作為框架未來一年展望的概念輸入，我發現這是一個值得進行的練習。</p>
<p>長期讀者知道，標準普爾 500 週期複合指數是 Ned Davis Research Group 的作品，融合了三個關鍵的歷史模式：一年季節性週期（捕捉典型的年內趨勢）、四年總統選舉週期（反映政治活動的趨勢）和十年週期（突出基於十年的節奏）。該複合指數平均了 1928 年至 2024 年的每日數據，以預測 2026 年標準普爾 500 的 “典型” 路徑。</p>
<p>正如我寫過的那樣，關鍵在於，儘管無法預測市場在 Ms. Market 的遊戲中會發生什麼（以及何時發生），但週期複合指數通常非常擅長暗示未來幾個月可能會發生的事情。</p>
<p>例如，2025 年絕對不是一個普通年份，市場在至少幾次情況下顯著偏離了週期預測。回顧一下，最初是由於 “解放日” 和隨之而來的關税恐慌，市場在歷史預測的反彈時卻下跌。然後，市場在傳統的疲軟秋季期間反彈。這兩者都與市場的歷史趨勢不符。</p>
<p>但隨着一切幾乎塵埃落定，我注意到標準普爾 500 指數與週期複合指數預測的年末水平非常接近。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png"/></p>
<p>版權歸 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有權利</p>
<p>使用此分析時需要理解的重要一點是，雖然市場確實有時會走自己的路，忽視週期影響，但股票往往會迴歸歷史趨勢所指示的趨勢。</p>
<p>正因如此，我喜歡在每個日曆年開始時回顧週期複合指數——然後每週檢查一次，看看情況如何。</p>
<p>那麼，事不宜遲，讓我們看看週期對 2026 年的預測。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png"/></p>
<p>版權歸 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有權利</p>
<p>以下是我對 2026 年週期複合指數對新年的建議的總結：</p>
<p><strong>年初強勁開局（第一季度反彈）：</strong> 複合指數在 2026 年以積極的態勢開局，指數從 1 月初開始穩步上升。這為 2 月下旬或 3 月初的顯著高峰積累了動能，圖表上的第一個黃色圓圈突顯了這一點。從歷史上看，這與假期後的樂觀情緒相符，且總統任期的第二年通常會帶有前一年動能的殘餘積極性。</p>
<p><strong>春季回調和波動性：</strong> 在早期高峰之後，4 月出現相當明顯的下降，直到春季中期觸底。然後線條在 5 月略微反彈，但在夏季（6 月至 8 月）進入波動期。這裏會有一些小的起伏——沒有明確的方向偏向，反映出第二年週期中典型的年中不確定性。</p>
<p><strong>秋季疲軟和關鍵低點（第三季度/第四季度過渡）：</strong> 最明顯的下行趨勢出現在夏末和初秋，穩定下降導致在 10 月初至中旬出現顯著低谷，標誌着第二個黃色圓圈。這個低點接近或略低於基線，暗示可能會出現重大修正。在中期選舉年（2026 年正是如此）的背景下，這可能與政治噪音加劇、政策辯論或季節性拋售壓力相關，這通常是總統週期較弱階段的特徵。</p>
<p><strong>年末復甦和積極收官：</strong> 從 10 月低點開始，複合指數預測強勁反彈，指數在 11 月和 12 月急劇上漲，以高點結束這一年。整體預測結束時較高，表明如果歷史重演，年度回報將適度積極——儘管遠不及強週期年所見的巨大收益。</p>
<p>從總統週期的角度來看，2026 年屬於任期的第二年，這在歷史上通常是四個年份中最軟的一年，常常伴隨着修正甚至熊市，尤其是在中期選舉和政策調整期間。儘管如此，綜合指數的整體上升趨勢表明了韌性，淨結果顯示儘管年中面臨挑戰，全年仍有收益。</p>
<p>因此，我進入 2026 年的計劃是從大局出發，給予多頭一定的信任。然而，週期綜合指數表明我需要（a）控制我的熱情，並且（b）準備應對顯著的弱勢。因此，這似乎不是放棄戰術性、風險管理方法的時機。</p>
<p>最後，讓我們記住，週期綜合指數是一個歷史平均值，顯然並不能保證任何事情。可以肯定的是，現實世界的事件可以並且常常會打亂即使是最一致的歷史/季節性模式。然而，正如長期讀者所知，週期綜合指數往往相對準確。因此，我喜歡將其作為我們市場分析中的一個拼圖部分。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者：</em></p>
<p>人工智能交易的現狀</p>
<p>風向的變化</p>
<p>偉大的輪換？還是...</p>

<p>本文分析了歷史週期，以預測 2026 年的股市前景。它強調了第一季度的強勁開局、春季的回調、夏季的波動以及初秋的顯著低谷。標準普爾 500 週期綜合指數結合了季節性、總統週期和十年週期，儘管存在不可預見的事件，但仍可作為指導。分析表明，可能會出現與中期選舉年政治噪音相關的修正</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg/query-dj0zYmJmNDVkNGJh" alt="" original-src="https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Crystal-Ball-2026-iStock-process-s300x-q80-t1766420229.jpg?v=3bbf45d4ba"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源</em></p>
</div><p>Before I put away the keyboard for the Holiday Season, I thought it might be a good idea to look ahead and see what the historical cycles have to say about the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我收起鍵盤迎接假期之前，我認為展望未來，看看歷史週期對明年股市的展望可能是個好主意。</p>
</div><p>Yes, it is certainly true that investors have a lot to consider as we head into 2026 such as the outlook for earnings, the state of the economy (and the bifurcated consumer), Fed expectations, the level of inflation, and of course, the AI trade debate (bubble vs revolution). However, if memory serves, something similar can usually be said at the beginning of each and every year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，確實如此，投資者在進入 2026 年時有很多因素需要考慮，比如盈利前景、經濟狀況（以及分化的消費者）、美聯儲的預期、通貨膨脹水平，以及當然，還有關於人工智能交易的辯論（泡沫與革命）。然而，如果我沒記錯的話，每年年初通常都會有類似的説法。</p>
</div><p>It is for this reason that I like to go into each new calendar year having some sort of idea about what to expect going forward. To be clear, I do NOT invest according to the cycles, gut hunches, my outlook, or even the stages of the moon. But I have found that looking at what the historical cycles look like can oftentimes provide a decent roadmap for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，我喜歡在每個新的一年開始時對未來有一些預期。需要明確的是，我並不是根據週期、直覺、我的展望，甚至是月相來投資。但我發現，查看歷史週期的表現往往能為未來一年提供一個不錯的路線圖。</p>
</div><p>While I must admit that my crystal ball remains in the shop and markets are often influenced by unforeseen events – like geopolitics, political policy, economic surprises, and/or even bubbles bursting – historical cycle analysis has proven to be a useful guide over the years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我必須承認我的水晶球仍在修理中，市場常常受到不可預見事件的影響——如地緣政治、政治政策、經濟意外，甚至泡沫破裂——但歷史週期分析多年來證明是一個有用的指南。</p>
</div><p>As I've mentioned in the past, sometimes this work is eerily accurate, other times, not so much. But as a conceptual input for framing the outlook for the coming year, I find it is an exercise worth doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我過去提到的，有時這項工作非常準確，有時則不然。但作為框架未來一年展望的概念輸入，我發現這是一個值得進行的練習。</p>
</div><p>Long-time readers know that the S&amp;P 500 Cycle Composite is the work of Ned Davis Research Group and is a blend of three key historical patterns: the one-year seasonal cycle (capturing typical intra-year trends), the four-year Presidential election cycle (reflecting tendencies around political activities), and the ten-year decennial cycle (highlighting decade-based rhythms). This composite averages daily data from 1928 through 2024 to project a &#34;typical&#34; path for the S&amp;P 500 in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期讀者知道，標準普爾 500 週期複合指數是 Ned Davis Research Group 的作品，融合了三個關鍵的歷史模式：一年季節性週期（捕捉典型的年內趨勢）、四年總統選舉週期（反映政治活動的趨勢）和十年週期（突出基於十年的節奏）。該複合指數平均了 1928 年至 2024 年的每日數據，以預測 2026 年標準普爾 500 的 “典型” 路徑。</p>
</div><p>As I've written a time or twenty, the key here is although it is impossible to predict what will happen (and/or when) in Ms. Market's game, the Cycle Composite is often very good at hinting at what might be coming round the bend in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我寫過的那樣，關鍵在於，儘管無法預測市場在 Ms. Market 的遊戲中會發生什麼（以及何時發生），但週期複合指數通常非常擅長暗示未來幾個月可能會發生的事情。</p>
</div><p>For example, 2025 was definitely not your average year and the markets strayed from the cycle projections significantly at least a couple times. To review, first things were upended early by &#34;Liberation Day&#34; and the ensuing tariff fears – thus the market dove when history projected a rally. Then the market rallied during the traditionally weak fall period. Neither of which were in sync with the market's historical tendencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，2025 年絕對不是一個普通年份，市場在至少幾次情況下顯著偏離了週期預測。回顧一下，最初是由於 “解放日” 和隨之而來的關税恐慌，市場在歷史預測的反彈時卻下跌。然後，市場在傳統的疲軟秋季期間反彈。這兩者都與市場的歷史趨勢不符。</p>
</div><p>But with everything now almost said and done, I note that the S&amp;P 500 is pretty darn close to where the Cycle Composite projected it to be near the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着一切幾乎塵埃落定，我注意到標準普爾 500 指數與週期複合指數預測的年末水平非常接近。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png" alt="" original-src="https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-12-20-25.png"/></p>
<p>Copyright Ned Davis Research Group, All Rights Reserved</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>版權歸 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有權利</p>
</div><p>The important thing to understand about using this analysis is while there are definitely times when the market goes its own way and ignores cycle influences, stocks often return to the trend indicated by history's trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用此分析時需要理解的重要一點是，雖然市場確實有時會走自己的路，忽視週期影響，但股票往往會迴歸歷史趨勢所指示的趨勢。</p>
</div><p>It is for this reason that I like to review the Cycle Composite at the beginning of each calendar year – and then check in on a weekly basis to see how things are going.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，我喜歡在每個日曆年開始時回顧週期複合指數——然後每週檢查一次，看看情況如何。</p>
</div><p>So, without further ado, let's look at what the Cycles say about 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，事不宜遲，讓我們看看週期對 2026 年的預測。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/a070770d665f4366bdb8f4a563c79fa8/files/Charts/Cycle-Comp-2026.png"/></p>
<p>Copyright Ned Davis Research Group, All Rights Reserved</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>版權歸 Ned Davis Research Group 所有，保留所有權利</p>
</div><p>Here's my summary of what the 2026 Cycle Composite suggests about the new year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我對 2026 年週期複合指數對新年的建議的總結：</p>
</div><p><strong>Strong Start to the Year (Q1 Rally):</strong> The composite kicks off 2026 on a positive note, with the index showing a steady climb from early January. This builds momentum into a notable peak around late February or early March, highlighted by the first yellow circle on the chart. Historically, this aligns with post-holiday optimism and the second year of a presidential term often starting with some residual positivity from the prior year's momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>年初強勁開局（第一季度反彈）：</strong> 複合指數在 2026 年以積極的態勢開局，指數從 1 月初開始穩步上升。這為 2 月下旬或 3 月初的顯著高峰積累了動能，圖表上的第一個黃色圓圈突顯了這一點。從歷史上看，這與假期後的樂觀情緒相符，且總統任期的第二年通常會帶有前一年動能的殘餘積極性。</p>
</div><p><strong>Spring Pullback and Choppiness:</strong> Following the early peak, there's a fairly sharp decline through April, bottoming out around mid-spring. The line then rebounds modestly into May but enters a period of volatility through the summer months (June to August). Expect wiggles here—some minor ups and downs—without a clear directional bias, reflecting typical mid-year uncertainty in year-two cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>春季回調和波動性：</strong> 在早期高峰之後，4 月出現相當明顯的下降，直到春季中期觸底。然後線條在 5 月略微反彈，但在夏季（6 月至 8 月）進入波動期。這裏會有一些小的起伏——沒有明確的方向偏向，反映出第二年週期中典型的年中不確定性。</p>
</div><p><strong>Fall Weakness and Key Low (Q3/Q4 Transition):</strong> The most pronounced downside appears in the late summer and early fall, with a steady decline leading to a significant trough around early to mid-October, marked by the second yellow circle. This low point dips near or slightly below the baseline, suggesting potential for a meaningful correction. In the context of mid-term election years (2026 being one), this could tie into heightened political noise, policy debates, or seasonal selling pressure that often characterizes the weaker phase of the presidential cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>秋季疲軟和關鍵低點（第三季度/第四季度過渡）：</strong> 最明顯的下行趨勢出現在夏末和初秋，穩定下降導致在 10 月初至中旬出現顯著低谷，標誌着第二個黃色圓圈。這個低點接近或略低於基線，暗示可能會出現重大修正。在中期選舉年（2026 年正是如此）的背景下，這可能與政治噪音加劇、政策辯論或季節性拋售壓力相關，這通常是總統週期較弱階段的特徵。</p>
</div><p><strong>Year-End Recovery and Positive Finish:</strong> From the October low, the composite projects a strong rebound, with the index rallying sharply through November and December to close the year on a high note. The overall projection ends higher, indicating a modestly positive annual return if history rhymes—though far from the blockbuster gains seen in stronger cycle years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>年末復甦和積極收官：</strong> 從 10 月低點開始，複合指數預測強勁反彈，指數在 11 月和 12 月急劇上漲，以高點結束這一年。整體預測結束時較高，表明如果歷史重演，年度回報將適度積極——儘管遠不及強週期年所見的巨大收益。</p>
</div><p>In presidential cycle terms, 2026 falls into the second year of the term, which has historically been the softest of the four, often featuring corrections or even bear markets amid mid-term elections and policy adjustments. That said, the composite's overall upward trajectory suggests resilience, with the net result showing gains for the year despite the mid-year hurdles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從總統週期的角度來看，2026 年屬於任期的第二年，這在歷史上通常是四個年份中最軟的一年，常常伴隨着修正甚至熊市，尤其是在中期選舉和政策調整期間。儘管如此，綜合指數的整體上升趨勢表明了韌性，淨結果顯示儘管年中面臨挑戰，全年仍有收益。</p>
</div><p>As such, my plan entering 2026 is to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt from a big-picture perspective. However, the Cycle Composite suggests that I (a) keep my enthusiasm in check and (b) be ready for meaningful weakness. Therefore, this does not appear to be the time to abandon a tactical, risk managed approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我進入 2026 年的計劃是從大局出發，給予多頭一定的信任。然而，週期綜合指數表明我需要（a）控制我的熱情，並且（b）準備應對顯著的弱勢。因此，這似乎不是放棄戰術性、風險管理方法的時機。</p>
</div><p>Finally, let's remember that the Cycle Composite is a historical average and clearly not a guarantee of anything. To be sure, real-world events can and often do derail even the most consistent historical/seasonal patterns. However, as long-time readers know, the Cycle Composite tends to be fairly accurate more often than not. As such, I like to use this as one piece of the puzzle in our market analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，讓我們記住，週期綜合指數是一個歷史平均值，顯然並不能保證任何事情。可以肯定的是，現實世界的事件可以並且常常會打亂即使是最一致的歷史/季節性模式。然而，正如長期讀者所知，週期綜合指數往往相對準確。因此，我喜歡將其作為我們市場分析中的一個拼圖部分。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者：</em></p>
</div><p>The State Of The AI Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能交易的現狀</p>
</div><p>Shifting Winds</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>風向的變化</p>
</div><p>The Great Rotation? Or...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>偉大的輪換？還是...</p>
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