<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png"/></p>
<p>日本 yen 連續第二天反彈，投資者對美聯儲與日本銀行（BoJ）之間持續的分歧作出反應。美元/日元匯率回落至 156.30，較年初至今的高點 157.83 大幅下跌。它還形成了一個風險圖表模式，暗示短期內可能進一步下跌。</p>
<h2>美元/日元技術分析顯示回撤</h2>
<p>日線圖表顯示，美元/日元匯率在過去兩天連續回撤。這一回撤發生在該貨幣對在 157.83 形成雙頂模式，頸線位於 154.37 之後。</p>
<p>雙頂模式是技術分析中最常見的看跌反轉圖表模式之一。</p>
<p>仔細觀察顯示，該貨幣對形成了看跌背離模式，因為 MACD 和相對強弱指數（RSI）持續向下移動。看跌背離發生在貨幣對處於上升趨勢時，這些振盪器卻下跌。</p>
<p>因此，雙頂模式與看跌背離的結合意味着美元/日元貨幣對將繼續下跌，下一個關鍵目標位於 154.45，即該模式的頸線。若價格跌破該水平，將指向更大的下行空間，可能會觸及心理關口 150。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="579" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元/日元圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
<h2>日本銀行與美聯儲的分歧</h2>
<p>在日本財政部長片山聰子表示政府準備採取大膽行動以應對與基本面不符的情況後，日元連續第二天上漲。</p>
<p>他的聲明是在日本銀行（BoJ）發佈符合預期的利率決定幾天後作出的。</p>
<p>該銀行將利率提高了 0.25%，並給出了温和的前瞻指引，分析師預計該銀行明年將進行一到兩次加息。這是因為過去幾個月通脹保持在較高水平。週五發佈的一份報告顯示，通脹上升至 3.0%。</p>
<p>日本銀行採取了其他鷹派政策，推動債券收益率達到多年來的最高水平。例如，它正在考慮出售價值超過 5000 億美元的 ETF，並已結束量化緊縮政策。</p>
<p>美聯儲採取了相反的做法，採取了鴿派基調。本月第三次連續會議上降息，一些美聯儲官員暗示未來會議可能會進一步降息。</p>
<p>週一，州長斯蒂芬·米蘭警告稱，美聯儲在不降息的情況下面臨衰退風險。他表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“失業率可能已經超過人們預期的水平。因此，我們有數據應該推動人們朝鴿派方向發展。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>最新數據顯示，11 月份失業率上升至 4.6%，反映出接受唐納德·特朗普提前退休提議的政府員工人數增加。另一份報告顯示，美國 11 月份通脹降温。</p>
<p>然而，紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長詹姆斯·威廉姆斯警告稱，目前沒有再次降息的緊迫性，建議繼續保持暫停。</p>
<p>展望未來，美國將在週二晚些時候發佈一些重要數據。可能影響美元/日元匯率的關鍵數據包括即將發佈的美國消費者信心報告、GDP、工業和製造業數據。</p>
<p>這篇文章《美元/日元預測：為什麼今天日元飆升》最初出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

<p>由於美聯儲與日本銀行之間的分歧，日元正在飆升。美元/日元匯率從 157.83 的高點跌至 156.30，受到雙頂形態和看跌背離的影響。日本財政部長表示準備採取大膽行動，而日本銀行在高通脹的背景下加息。美聯儲的鴿派立場形成對比，近期降息併發出衰退警告。即將發佈的美國經濟數據可能進一步影響匯率</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251021_092751_xlVln.png"/></p>
<p>The Japanese yen rebounded for the second consecutive day as investors reacted to the ongoing divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The USD/JPY exchange rate retreated to a low of 156.30, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 157.83. It has also formed a risky chart pattern pointing to more downside in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本 yen 連續第二天反彈，投資者對美聯儲與日本銀行（BoJ）之間持續的分歧作出反應。美元/日元匯率回落至 156.30，較年初至今的高點 157.83 大幅下跌。它還形成了一個風險圖表模式，暗示短期內可能進一步下跌。</p>
</div><h2>USD/JPY technical analysis points to a retreat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元技術分析顯示回撤</h2>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has pulled back in the past two consecutive days. This retreat happened after the pair formed a double-top pattern at 157.83 with a neckline at 154.37.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖表顯示，美元/日元匯率在過去兩天連續回撤。這一回撤發生在該貨幣對在 157.83 形成雙頂模式，頸線位於 154.37 之後。</p>
</div><p>A double-top pattern is one of the most common bearish reversal chart patterns in technical analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雙頂模式是技術分析中最常見的看跌反轉圖表模式之一。</p>
</div><p>A closer look shows that the pair has formed a bearish divergence pattern as the MACDA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to move downwards. A bearish divergence happens when these oscillators drop when a currency pair is in an uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仔細觀察顯示，該貨幣對形成了看跌背離模式，因為 MACD 和相對強弱指數（RSI）持續向下移動。看跌背離發生在貨幣對處於上升趨勢時，這些振盪器卻下跌。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, a combination of a double-top pattern and a bearish divergence means that the USD/JPY pair will continue falling, with the next key target being at 154.45, the neckline of this pattern. A move below that price will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level at 150.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，雙頂模式與看跌背離的結合意味着美元/日元貨幣對將繼續下跌，下一個關鍵目標位於 154.45，即該模式的頸線。若價格跌破該水平，將指向更大的下行空間，可能會觸及心理關口 150。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/usdjpy-1-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p><em>USD/JPY chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元/日元圖表 | 來源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>BoJ and Fes divergence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本銀行與美聯儲的分歧</h2>
</div><p>The Japanese yen rose for the second consecutive day after Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, said that the government was prepared to take bold actions if it moves out of line with its fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本財政部長片山聰子表示政府準備採取大膽行動以應對與基本面不符的情況後，日元連續第二天上漲。</p>
</div><p>His statement came a few days after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered its interest rate decision, which was in line with expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的聲明是在日本銀行（BoJ）發佈符合預期的利率決定幾天後作出的。</p>
</div><p>The bank hiked interest rates by 0.25% and delivered a muted forward guidance, with analysts expecting the bank to deliver one or two hikes next year. It is doing that since inflation has remained at an elevated level in the past few months. A report released on Friday showed that inflation rose to 3.0%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該銀行將利率提高了 0.25%，並給出了温和的前瞻指引，分析師預計該銀行明年將進行一到兩次加息。這是因為過去幾個月通脹保持在較高水平。週五發佈的一份報告顯示，通脹上升至 3.0%。</p>
</div><p>The BoJ has taken other hawkish policies that have pushed bond yields to the highest level in years. For example, it is considering selling ETFs worth over $500 billion and had already ended its quantitative tightening policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本銀行採取了其他鷹派政策，推動債券收益率達到多年來的最高水平。例如，它正在考慮出售價值超過 5000 億美元的 ETF，並已結束量化緊縮政策。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve has taken the opposite approach as it embraced a dovish tone. It slashed interest rates for the third consecutive meeting this month and some Fed officials are hinting of more cuts in the coming meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲採取了相反的做法，採取了鴿派基調。本月第三次連續會議上降息，一些美聯儲官員暗示未來會議可能會進一步降息。</p>
</div><p>In a statement on Monday, Governor Stephen Miran warned that the Federal Reserve risked a recession without cutting interest rates. He said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一，州長斯蒂芬·米蘭警告稱，美聯儲在不降息的情況下面臨衰退風險。他表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The unemployment rate has poked up potentially above where people thought it was going to go. And so we’ve had data that should push people into a dovish direction.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“失業率可能已經超過人們預期的水平。因此，我們有數據應該推動人們朝鴿派方向發展。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The most recent data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, reflecting the number of government employees who took Donald Trump’s early retirement offers. Another report showed that US inflation cooledin November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新數據顯示，11 月份失業率上升至 4.6%，反映出接受唐納德·特朗普提前退休提議的政府員工人數增加。另一份報告顯示，美國 11 月份通脹降温。</p>
</div><p>However, James Williams, the head of the New York Federal Reserve, warned that there was no urgency to cut interest rates again, recommending a continued pause.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長詹姆斯·威廉姆斯警告稱，目前沒有再次降息的緊迫性，建議繼續保持暫停。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, the US will publish some important data later on Tuesday. The key numbers to watch that may move the USD/JPY exchange rate will be the upcoming US consumer confidence report, GDP, industrial, and manufacturing numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，美國將在週二晚些時候發佈一些重要數據。可能影響美元/日元匯率的關鍵數據包括即將發佈的美國消費者信心報告、GDP、工業和製造業數據。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/JPY forecast: Here’s why the Japanese yen is soaring today appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章《美元/日元預測：為什麼今天日元飆升》最初出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

美元兑日元預測：為什麼日元今天大幅上漲