<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>倫敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——供應中斷和關税錯位定義了今年倫敦金屬交易所（LME）基本金屬的複雜局面。</p>
<p>需求形勢遠非樂觀，但供應鏈壓力仍然推動 LME 指數（.LMEX），即交易所六種基本金屬合約的綜合指數，達到了自 2022 年曆史高點以來的最高水平。</p>
<p>那一年，俄羅斯入侵了烏克蘭。</p>
<p>今年的動盪來自不同的方向，市場正在應對美國總統唐納德·特朗普的波動關税世界。</p>
<p>金融市場已經從四月的 “解放日” 低迷中恢復，但針對美國鋁的關税和銅關税的威脅正在導致交易模式的劇烈變化。</p>
<p>關税錯位增加了各個金屬面臨的供應風險的複雜性，並幫助解釋了今年表現的巨大差異。</p>
<h3>銅博士的雙重性格</h3>
<p>LME 三個月期銅（CMCU3）本月不斷創下歷史新高，挑戰每公噸 12,000 美元的水平。</p>
<p>CME 的美國銅合約（HGc1）交易價格更高，因為它考慮到了對精煉金屬進口可能徵收的關税。特朗普政府已將決定推遲到明年中，但關税的威脅已證明與現實一樣具有破壞性。</p>
<p>全球的銅 surplus 已經向美國聚集，推動 CME 庫存達到多年高點，導致其他地區金屬短缺。</p>
<p>豐收還是饑荒？銅的情況取決於你身處何地。</p>
<p>CME 與 LME 銅之間的套利今年經歷了瘋狂的波動，因為關税時有時無，可能又會再次出現。在特朗普做出決定之前，這將繼續定義精煉銅的全球流動。</p>
<h3>錫有新的基金朋友</h3>
<p>雖然銅佔據了頭條，但今年的明星表現來自錫，這個市場面臨多重供應威脅。</p>
<p>錫的問題在於，礦山供應過於集中在少數國家，包括剛果民主共和國和緬甸半自治的瓦州等高風險地區。</p>
<p>額外的波動來自於對 LME 核心合約中最小的錫合約的基金參與增加。</p>
<p>錫似乎正在進入投資者的視野，因為世界意識到，在電路板焊料的形式下，這種青銅時代的金屬在即將到來的物聯網時代有着光明的未來。</p>
<h3>鋁 - 注意上限……和差距</h3>
<p>鋁是今年 LME 表現第三強的金屬，反映出人們越來越意識到，作為全球最大生產國的中國的生產現在正面臨政府規定的產能上限。</p>
<p>並非所有人都同意花旗的觀點，即鋁正在 “無意識地走向 20 年來最大的（供應）赤字”，但市場確實很久沒有如此關注中國以外的新冶煉廠項目。</p>
<p>鋁的貿易流動，已經因對俄羅斯金屬的制裁而錯位，因美國進口關税的翻倍而進一步破裂。</p>
<p>美國交付的溢價達到了創紀錄的每磅 89 美分（每噸 1,967 美元），這也是超過了隱含的 50% 關税率，表明美國現在正面臨金屬短缺。</p>
<h3>鋅的驚喜</h3>
<p>談到無意識地走向赤字，LME 鋅市場在十月經歷了一次劇烈的擠壓。</p>
<p>現金溢價超過三個月交付（CMZN0-3）擴展到超過每噸 300 美元的倒掛，創下歷史新高，LME 庫存降至僅 50,000 噸。</p>
<p>本應是鋅過剩的一年，因為一波新的礦山供應湧入供應鏈。</p>
<p>但過剩的鋅最終都集中在中國。</p>
<p>根據國際鉛鋅研究小組的數據，全球礦山生產同比增長了 6.5%，精煉產量同比增長了 2.9%。</p>
<p>然而，西方的精煉鋅生產實際上下降了 2.2%，反映出關閉、暫停和意外冶煉事故的混合影響。</p>
<p>本月 LME 價差結構的崩潰表明，中國的過剩鋅正在轉移，以滿足西方的需求。</p>
<h3>鉛過剩</h3>
<p>鉛並不短缺。短期內也不太可能出現短缺。</p>
<p>儲存鉛的利潤與在實物市場上銷售鉛的利潤相當，這就是為什麼交易者在這一年裏相互爭奪單位，以從倉儲激勵中獲利。</p>
<p>今年超過一百萬噸的鉛已在 LME 倉庫進出，註冊庫存僅淨增 16,425 噸。</p>
<p>噪音掩蓋了來自 LME 註冊和場外庫存的潛在上升趨勢，這些庫存從 2023 年初的 21,500 噸上升到超過 440,000 噸。</p>
<h3>印尼繁榮，鎳崩潰</h3>
<p>由於印尼持續的生產繁榮，鎳庫存也激增，導致全球供應增長遠遠超過需求。</p>
<p>好消息是，如果沒有麥格理銀行所描述的 “中國大規模未報告的戰略性囤積”，交易所的庫存將會更高。</p>
<p>壞消息是，LME 剛剛批准了由 PT Eternal Industry 生產的新印尼鎳品牌，年產量為 50,000 噸。</p>
<p>鎳目前正享受年底的反彈，寄希望於印尼能夠在 2026 年遏制其生產增長，這一切都説明了當前鎳市場的狀況。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社專欄作家。所表達的觀點僅代表他本人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省的數據驅動評論。請在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。</p>
<p>2025 年 LME 金屬相對錶現</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2552" height="1154" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR"/></p>
<p>美國進口關税的威脅顛覆了 CME-LME 銅的套利</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2550" height="1050" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ"/></p>
<p>基金在 LME 錫合約上建立了創紀錄的多頭頭寸</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2548" height="1156" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo"/></p>
<p>美國進口關税分裂了全球鋁市場</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2546" height="1154" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx"/></p>
<p>倫敦金屬交易所鋅的價差在 2025 年爆炸性地達到了歷史最高的逆價差水平</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2536" height="1032" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc"/></p>
<p>倫敦金屬交易所鉛庫存達到多年高位</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1350" height="680" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc"/></p>
<p>中國鎳正在湧入倫敦金屬交易所倉庫</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1518" height="712" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>（編輯：Marguerita Choy）</p>
<p>)</p>

ZINC

<p>倫敦金屬交易所（LME）金屬市場受到供應中斷和關税擾動的影響，導致交易模式發生顯著變化。由於潛在的美國關税，銅價達到了歷史新高，而錫則引起了投資者的關注。鋁因中國的產能限制和美國關税面臨供應挑戰。鋅經歷了供應緊張，而鉛則依然充足。由於印度尼西亞的生產激增，鎳的供應大幅增加。這些因素導致今年金屬表現出現波動和分化</p>

<p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Supply disruption and tariff dislocation have defined the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals complex this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——供應中斷和關税錯位定義了今年倫敦金屬交易所（LME）基本金屬的複雜局面。</p>
</div><p>The demand picture is far from rosy, but supply-chain stress has still lifted the LME Index (.LMEX) , a basket of the exchange’s six base metals contracts, to its highest level since the all-time peak in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求形勢遠非樂觀，但供應鏈壓力仍然推動 LME 指數（.LMEX），即交易所六種基本金屬合約的綜合指數，達到了自 2022 年曆史高點以來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>That was the year Russia invaded Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那一年，俄羅斯入侵了烏克蘭。</p>
</div><p>This year’s turbulence has come from a different direction, as markets navigate U.S. President Donald Trump’s topsy-turvy tariff world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年的動盪來自不同的方向，市場正在應對美國總統唐納德·特朗普的波動關税世界。</p>
</div><p>Financial markets have recovered from their “Liberation Day” swoon in April, but targeted U.S. aluminium tariffs and the threat of copper tariffs are causing tectonic shifts in trading patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市場已經從四月的 “解放日” 低迷中恢復，但針對美國鋁的關税和銅關税的威脅正在導致交易模式的劇烈變化。</p>
</div><p>Tariff dislocation adds complexity to the spectrum of supply risk facing individual metals and helps explain the wide divergence in performance this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關税錯位增加了各個金屬面臨的供應風險的複雜性，並幫助解釋了今年表現的巨大差異。</p>
</div><h3>DOCTOR COPPER’S SPLIT PERSONALITY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>銅博士的雙重性格</h3>
</div><p>LME three-month copper (CMCU3) has been punching out fresh all-time highs this month as it challenges the $12,000 per metric ton level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 三個月期銅（CMCU3）本月不斷創下歷史新高，挑戰每公噸 12,000 美元的水平。</p>
</div><p>The CME’s U.S. copper contract (HGc1) is trading higher still because it’s pricing in possible tariffs on imports of refined metal. The Trump administration has deferred a decision until the middle of next year, but the threat of tariffs has proved as disruptive as the reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 的美國銅合約（HGc1）交易價格更高，因為它考慮到了對精煉金屬進口可能徵收的關税。特朗普政府已將決定推遲到明年中，但關税的威脅已證明與現實一樣具有破壞性。</p>
</div><p>The world’s surplus copper has gravitated towards the U.S., lifting CME stocks to multi-year highs and leaving everyone else short of metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球的銅 surplus 已經向美國聚集，推動 CME 庫存達到多年高點，導致其他地區金屬短缺。</p>
</div><p>Feast or famine? Copper is currently both depending on where you are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>豐收還是饑荒？銅的情況取決於你身處何地。</p>
</div><p>The arbitrage between CME and LME copper has been a wild ride this year as tariffs were on, then off, then on again maybe. Until Trump makes up his mind, it will continue to define global flows of refined copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 與 LME 銅之間的套利今年經歷了瘋狂的波動，因為關税時有時無，可能又會再次出現。在特朗普做出決定之前，這將繼續定義精煉銅的全球流動。</p>
</div><h3>TIN HAS NEW FUND FRIENDS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>錫有新的基金朋友</h3>
</div><p>While copper has grabbed the headlines, this year’s star turn has come from tin, a market grappling with multiple supply threats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然銅佔據了頭條，但今年的明星表現來自錫，這個市場面臨多重供應威脅。</p>
</div><p>Tin’s problem is too much mine supply is concentrated in too few countries, including high-risk jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫的問題在於，礦山供應過於集中在少數國家，包括剛果民主共和國和緬甸半自治的瓦州等高風險地區。</p>
</div><p>Extra volatility is coming from increased fund participation in the smallest of the LME’s core contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>額外的波動來自於對 LME 核心合約中最小的錫合約的基金參與增加。</p>
</div><p>Tin appears to be moving onto the investment radar as the world wakes up to the fact that, in the form of circuit-board solder, the Bronze Age metal has a bright future in the coming Internet-Of-Things Age.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫似乎正在進入投資者的視野，因為世界意識到，在電路板焊料的形式下，這種青銅時代的金屬在即將到來的物聯網時代有着光明的未來。</p>
</div><h3>ALUMINIUM - MIND THE CAP…AND THE GAP</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鋁 - 注意上限……和差距</h3>
</div><p>Aluminium has been the third strongest LME performer this year, reflecting a growing awareness that production in China, the world’s largest producer, is now bumping against the government’s mandated capacity cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁是今年 LME 表現第三強的金屬，反映出人們越來越意識到，作為全球最大生產國的中國的生產現在正面臨政府規定的產能上限。</p>
</div><p>Not everyone agrees with Citi’s call that aluminium is “sleep-walking into the biggest (supply) deficits in 20 years”, but it’s certainly a long time since the market has paid so much attention to new smelter projects outside of China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>並非所有人都同意花旗的觀點，即鋁正在 “無意識地走向 20 年來最大的（供應）赤字”，但市場確實很久沒有如此關注中國以外的新冶煉廠項目。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium trade flows, already dislocated by sanctions on Russian metal, have been further fractured by the doubling of U.S. import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鋁的貿易流動，已經因對俄羅斯金屬的制裁而錯位，因美國進口關税的翻倍而進一步破裂。</p>
</div><p>The premium for U.S. delivery stands at a record 89 cents per lb ($1,967 per ton) over the LME price. That’s also a premium over the implied 50% tariff rate, suggesting that the U.S. is now running short of metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國交付的溢價達到了創紀錄的每磅 89 美分（每噸 1,967 美元），這也是超過了隱含的 50% 關税率，表明美國現在正面臨金屬短缺。</p>
</div><h3>ZINC SURPRISE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鋅的驚喜</h3>
</div><p>And talking of sleep-walking into a deficit, the LME zinc market was rocked by a ferocious squeeze in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談到無意識地走向赤字，LME 鋅市場在十月經歷了一次劇烈的擠壓。</p>
</div><p>The cash premium over three-month delivery (CMZN0-3) flexed out to over $300 per ton backwardation, a record level, as LME stocks fell to just 50,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現金溢價超過三個月交付（CMZN0-3）擴展到超過每噸 300 美元的倒掛，創下歷史新高，LME 庫存降至僅 50,000 噸。</p>
</div><p>This was supposed to be a year of zinc surplus as a wave of new mine supply washed through the supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本應是鋅過剩的一年，因為一波新的礦山供應湧入供應鏈。</p>
</div><p>But the surplus has all ended up in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但過剩的鋅最終都集中在中國。</p>
</div><p>Global mine production rose by a robust 6.5% year-on-year and refined output by 2.9% year-on-year in January-October, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國際鉛鋅研究小組的數據，全球礦山生產同比增長了 6.5%，精煉產量同比增長了 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>However, Western production of refined zinc actually fell by 2.2%, reflecting a mix of closures, suspensions and unforeseen smelter hits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，西方的精煉鋅生產實際上下降了 2.2%，反映出關閉、暫停和意外冶煉事故的混合影響。</p>
</div><p>This month’s implosion of the LME spread structure suggests Chinese surplus is on the move to satiate Western hunger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月 LME 價差結構的崩潰表明，中國的過剩鋅正在轉移，以滿足西方的需求。</p>
</div><h3>TOO MUCH LEAD</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鉛過剩</h3>
</div><p>There’s no shortage of lead. Nor is there likely to be one any time soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉛並不短缺。短期內也不太可能出現短缺。</p>
</div><p>Warehousing the stuff is as profitable as trying to sell it in the physical market, which is why traders have spent the year arm-wresting units off each other to profit from warehouse incentives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儲存鉛的利潤與在實物市場上銷售鉛的利潤相當，這就是為什麼交易者在這一年裏相互爭奪單位，以從倉儲激勵中獲利。</p>
</div><p>Over a million tons of lead have been delivered in and out of LME warehouses this year for a net rise of just 16,425 tons in registered inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年超過一百萬噸的鉛已在 LME 倉庫進出，註冊庫存僅淨增 16,425 噸。</p>
</div><p>The noise masks the signal coming from the underlying uptrend in combined LME registered and off-market stocks, which have risen from 21,500 tons at the start of 2023 to over 440,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>噪音掩蓋了來自 LME 註冊和場外庫存的潛在上升趨勢，這些庫存從 2023 年初的 21,500 噸上升到超過 440,000 噸。</p>
</div><h3>INDONESIAN BOOM, NICKEL BUST</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印尼繁榮，鎳崩潰</h3>
</div><p>Nickel stocks have also mushroomed thanks to Indonesia’s continued production boom, which has caused global supply growth to far outstrip demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於印尼持續的生產繁榮，鎳庫存也激增，導致全球供應增長遠遠超過需求。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that exchange stocks would be even higher had there not been what Macquarie Bank describes as “large unreported strategic stockpiling” in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，如果沒有麥格理銀行所描述的 “中國大規模未報告的戰略性囤積”，交易所的庫存將會更高。</p>
</div><p>The bad news is that the LME has just approved a new Indonesian nickel brand, produced by PT Eternal Industry at a rate of 50,000 tons per year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壞消息是，LME 剛剛批准了由 PT Eternal Industry 生產的新印尼鎳品牌，年產量為 50,000 噸。</p>
</div><p>Nickel is currently enjoying an end-of-year bounce on renewed hope that Indonesia can tame its production growth in 2026, which says everything you need to know about the nickel market right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鎳目前正享受年底的反彈，寄希望於印尼能夠在 2026 年遏制其生產增長，這一切都説明了當前鎳市場的狀況。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社專欄作家。所表達的觀點僅代表他本人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省的數據驅動評論。請在 LinkedIn 和 X 上關注 ROI。</p>
</div><p>LME metals relative performance in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 LME 金屬相對錶現</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/45muweR"/></p>
<p>Threat of US import tariffs has upended CME-LME copper arbitrage</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國進口關税的威脅顛覆了 CME-LME 銅的套利</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4p369tJ"/></p>
<p>Funds build record long position on LME tin contract</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基金在 LME 錫合約上建立了創紀錄的多頭頭寸</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3KXc1Xo"/></p>
<p>US import tariffs have split the global aluminium market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國進口關税分裂了全球鋁市場</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4s8bnHx"/></p>
<p>LME zinc spreads exploded to record levels of backwardation in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦金屬交易所鋅的價差在 2025 年爆炸性地達到了歷史最高的逆價差水平</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/49m99Nc"/></p>
<p>LME lead stocks at multi-year highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦金屬交易所鉛庫存達到多年高位</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9TQuc"/></p>
<p>Chinese nickel is surging into LME warehouses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國鎳正在湧入倫敦金屬交易所倉庫</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ktv0Zt"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（編輯：Marguerita Choy）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

投資回報率 - 顛覆與錯位：LME 金屬年度回顧七張圖表：Andy Home