<p>作者：Mike Dolan</p>
<p>倫敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——在 2025 年，貴金屬無疑是贏家，而幾乎所有其他傳統的 “避險” 投資表現不佳。這在一個動盪、衝突和人工智能泡沫擔憂不斷升温的一年中尤為顯著。經濟運行火熱，政治家推動寬鬆貨幣政策，衰退擔憂減退，人工智能熱潮席捲市場，地緣政治緊張局勢上升，共同塑造了今年的市場格局。貴金屬的表現超越了幾乎所有其他資產。銀（XAG=）和鉑金（XPT=）的價格翻了一番以上，而黃金（XAU=）上漲超過 60%，是自 1979 年石油危機以來的最大漲幅。這一表現遠超全球股票指數約 20% 的漲幅。黃金、白銀和鉑金是否陷入了自身的投機泡沫仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。但它們的強勁表現得益於中央銀行的強勁需求以及它們在更廣泛科技建設中的關鍵作用。</p>
<p>然而，廣泛的商品指數在今年表現不佳，受到不斷增加的石油過剩的拖累。儘管在 2025 年中東發生了幾次緊張時刻，並伴隨着原油價格飆升至每桶 100 美元的擔憂，但原油價格（LCOc1）實際上同比下降了 20%，現在幾乎降至該水平的一半。如果你擔心全球衝突，最好的投資選擇不是傳統的防禦性行業，如公用事業和消費品，而是國防行業本身。美國航空航天和國防股票在 2025 年上漲了 36%，而歐洲同行則上漲了 55%，德國和整個歐洲重新武裝。</p>
<h3>債券和防禦性投資表現不佳</h3>
<p>今年大多數其他傳統的緩衝和安全投資反而成為投資組合的負擔，而不是保護。即使是一些人稱之為 “數字黃金” 的加密貨幣代幣，如比特幣，今年也以虧損收尾。</p>
<p>債券市場同樣表現不佳。全球 “無風險” 政府債券指數在美元計價下損失了約 1%，而總回報率略超過 6%。包括政府、超國家、機構和公司債務的彭博多元化債券基準表現稍好，價格上漲約 1%，總回報接近 7%。</p>
<p>這不到 MSCI 全球股票指數上漲的一半，該指數有望實現自 2019 年疫情前以來的最佳年度表現。</p>
<p>在股票市場中，採取防禦性策略並不是一個成功的策略。整體標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）在科技巨頭和人工智能主題的推動下，年漲幅達 15%，強勁的美國經濟復甦和 2025 年下半年利率下降使華爾街大多數股票受益。但標準普爾 500 指數的 “成長” 股票上漲了 20%，是 “價值” 股票漲幅的兩倍多。標準普爾 500 指數的總回報也比等權重指數高出 5 個百分點。儘管公用事業、醫療保健和金融行業的表現不錯，漲幅超過 10%，但它們都落後於主要指數。消費品僅上漲約 2%，表現最差。最後，道瓊斯工業平均指數（.DJI）藍籌股也表現不及標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克指數（.IXIC）。</p>
<p>安全性最後？在貨幣中，日本的日元（JPY=）和瑞士法郎（CHF=）通常被視為避險資產，但其中一個在年末也令人失望。</p>
<p>美元（USD=）在 2025 年上半年下滑，最初推動日元和瑞士法郎走高，但日元隨後失去了所有漲幅。日本央行的進一步加息未能提供幫助，因為投資者對新的財政刺激措施感到擔憂，並在新任首相高市早苗的上任下，國內債券市場感到不安。</p>
<p>在對日本主要貿易伙伴的實際有效匯率中，日元全年下跌約 4%。</p>
<p>然而，瑞士法郎保持了早期的漲幅，並與黃金和白銀一起成為 2025 年為數不多的成功避風港之一。</p>
<p>但如果你在年初將美元視為地緣政治壓力下的避風港，你就得重新考慮了。</p>
<p>在今年一些最動盪的月份，DXY 美元指數下跌了 12%，並在中東、東歐甚至加勒比海的多個危機點保持疲軟。對於那些對市場動盪感到擔憂的投資者，另一種策略是購買與波動性相關的指數，以從股票和債券的劇烈波動中獲利。</p>
<p>但這些 “降落傘” 在 2025 年也並沒有真正發揮作用。儘管春季波動劇烈，標準普爾 500 指數的 VIX（.VIX）“恐慌指數” 在年末結束時比年初低了兩個點。國債市場的等效指標 MOVE 指數也不到其開盤水平的三分之二，且低於四月的峯值一半。主要貨幣市場的波動性指標也有所下降。今年並沒有真正值得過於謹慎的投資。</p>
<p>2026 年是雙倍還是退出？</p>
<p>這裏表達的觀點是作者的，作者為路透社專欄作家。——喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），這是您獲取全球金融評論的必備新來源。在 LinkedIn 上關注 ROI。此外，註冊我的工作日通訊《晨間投標美國》。</p>
<p>確實珍貴——黃金、白銀和鉑金的繁榮</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="949" height="709" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y"/></p>
<p>國防勝於防禦性投資</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="950" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg"/></p>
<p>大型加密貨幣代幣表現不佳</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="949" height="714" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD"/></p>
<p>“安全” 的政府債券表現平平</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="951" height="712" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C"/></p>
<p>防禦性股票行業在華爾街表現不佳</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="950" height="709" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn"/></p>
<p>美元和日元都沒有 “安全性”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="952" height="711" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90"/></p>
<p>在 2025 年購買波動性沒有樂趣</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="952" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0"/></p>
<p>（作者：Mike Dolan；編輯：Marguerita Choy）</p>

塔吉特

開市客

克羅格

<p>貴金屬，尤其是銀、鉑和金，在 2025 年成為表現最佳的投資，顯著超越了傳統的避險資產和全球股票指數。美國和歐洲的防禦類股票也實現了可觀的漲幅。相比之下，債券、公用事業、消費品和加密貨幣表現不佳。日元貶值，而瑞士法郎保持了其價值。美元走弱，波動率指數未能提供預期的保護。總體而言，謹慎的投資策略在 2025 年並未獲得回報</p>

<p>By Mike Dolan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Mike Dolan</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Precious metals were the clear winner in 2025, while pretty much all other traditional “safe haven” investments underperformed. That’s remarkable in a year marked by turbulence, conflict, and rumbling artificial intelligence bubble fears. Economies ran hot, politicians pushed for easy money, recession fears faded, an AI frenzy gripped markets, and geopolitical tensions rose, together shaping this year’s market landscape. Precious metals outpaced almost everything else. Silver (XAG=) and platinum (XPT=) more than doubled, and gold (XAU=) rose over 60%, its biggest jump since the 1979 oil crisis. That performance trounced the roughly 20% gains in global equity indexes. Whether gold, silver, and platinum are caught in a speculative bubble of their own is still an open question. But their strength is bolstered by strong central bank demand and their role as key inputs in the broader tech build-out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，12 月 23 日（路透社）——在 2025 年，貴金屬無疑是贏家，而幾乎所有其他傳統的 “避險” 投資表現不佳。這在一個動盪、衝突和人工智能泡沫擔憂不斷升温的一年中尤為顯著。經濟運行火熱，政治家推動寬鬆貨幣政策，衰退擔憂減退，人工智能熱潮席捲市場，地緣政治緊張局勢上升，共同塑造了今年的市場格局。貴金屬的表現超越了幾乎所有其他資產。銀（XAG=）和鉑金（XPT=）的價格翻了一番以上，而黃金（XAU=）上漲超過 60%，是自 1979 年石油危機以來的最大漲幅。這一表現遠超全球股票指數約 20% 的漲幅。黃金、白銀和鉑金是否陷入了自身的投機泡沫仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。但它們的強勁表現得益於中央銀行的強勁需求以及它們在更廣泛科技建設中的關鍵作用。</p>
</div><p>Wider commodity indexes flubbed this year, however, drowned by a swelling oil glut. Despite several tense moments in the Middle East during 2025, and the associated fears of crude jumping to $100 a barrel, crude prices (LCOc1) actually fell 20% year-on-year and now sit at almost half that level. If you were worried about global conflict, the best place to put your money was not in traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, but in the defense sector itself. U.S. aerospace and defense stocks clocked gains of 36% in 2025, while European counterparts jumped 55% and Germany and the continent re-armed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，廣泛的商品指數在今年表現不佳，受到不斷增加的石油過剩的拖累。儘管在 2025 年中東發生了幾次緊張時刻，並伴隨着原油價格飆升至每桶 100 美元的擔憂，但原油價格（LCOc1）實際上同比下降了 20%，現在幾乎降至該水平的一半。如果你擔心全球衝突，最好的投資選擇不是傳統的防禦性行業，如公用事業和消費品，而是國防行業本身。美國航空航天和國防股票在 2025 年上漲了 36%，而歐洲同行則上漲了 55%，德國和整個歐洲重新武裝。</p>
</div><h3>LAGGING BONDS AND DEFENSIVES</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>債券和防禦性投資表現不佳</h3>
</div><p>Most other traditional buffers and safety plays were dead weights on portfolios this year rather than protection. Even crypto tokens like bitcoin - touted by some as “digital gold” - are ending the year in the red.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年大多數其他傳統的緩衝和安全投資反而成為投資組合的負擔，而不是保護。即使是一些人稱之為 “數字黃金” 的加密貨幣代幣，如比特幣，今年也以虧損收尾。</p>
</div><p>It was also a poor year for bonds. Global “risk-free” government bond indexes lost about 1% in dollar terms, while clocking just over 6% on a total return basis. Broader global bond benchmarks such as the Bloomberg Multiverse, which includes government, supra-national, agency and corporate debt, did little better, with price gains of about 1% and total returns near 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>債券市場同樣表現不佳。全球 “無風險” 政府債券指數在美元計價下損失了約 1%，而總回報率略超過 6%。包括政府、超國家、機構和公司債務的彭博多元化債券基準表現稍好，價格上漲約 1%，總回報接近 7%。</p>
</div><p>That’s less than half the rise in MSCI’s all-country stock index, which is on track for its best year since before the pandemic in 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不到 MSCI 全球股票指數上漲的一半，該指數有望實現自 2019 年疫情前以來的最佳年度表現。</p>
</div><p>Within equities, going defensive wasn’t a winning strategy. The overall S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) , flattered by tech megacaps and the AI theme, notched annual gains of 15%, as a strong U.S. economic rebound and falling interest rates in the second half of 2025 lifted most Wall Street boats. But S&amp;P 500 “growth” stocks jumped 20%, more than double the gains of “value” stocks. The S&amp;P 500’s total return was also 5 percentage points more than the equal-weighted cut of the index. While utilities, healthcare and financials had a decent year with more than 10% gains, they all trailed the main index. Consumer staples managed only about 2%, bringing up the rear. Finally, the Dow Industrials (.DJI) blue chips also underperformed both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票市場中，採取防禦性策略並不是一個成功的策略。整體標準普爾 500 指數（.SPX）在科技巨頭和人工智能主題的推動下，年漲幅達 15%，強勁的美國經濟復甦和 2025 年下半年利率下降使華爾街大多數股票受益。但標準普爾 500 指數的 “成長” 股票上漲了 20%，是 “價值” 股票漲幅的兩倍多。標準普爾 500 指數的總回報也比等權重指數高出 5 個百分點。儘管公用事業、醫療保健和金融行業的表現不錯，漲幅超過 10%，但它們都落後於主要指數。消費品僅上漲約 2%，表現最差。最後，道瓊斯工業平均指數（.DJI）藍籌股也表現不及標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克指數（.IXIC）。</p>
</div><p>SAFETY LAST? Among currencies, Japan’s yen (JPY=) and Switzerland’s franc (CHF=) are usually viewed as safety plays - but one of them also disappointed by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安全性最後？在貨幣中，日本的日元（JPY=）和瑞士法郎（CHF=）通常被視為避險資產，但其中一個在年末也令人失望。</p>
</div><p>The dollar’s (USD=) slide in the first half of 2025 initially drove both the yen and Swiss franc higher, but the Japanese currency subsequently surrendered all its gains. A further Bank of Japan rate hike failed to help as investors fretted about fresh fiscal stimulus and were unsettled in domestic bond markets by the arrival of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（USD=）在 2025 年上半年下滑，最初推動日元和瑞士法郎走高，但日元隨後失去了所有漲幅。日本央行的進一步加息未能提供幫助，因為投資者對新的財政刺激措施感到擔憂，並在新任首相高市早苗的上任下，國內債券市場感到不安。</p>
</div><p>In real effective terms against Japan’s main trading partners, the yen fell about 4% over the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在對日本主要貿易伙伴的實際有效匯率中，日元全年下跌約 4%。</p>
</div><p>The franc, however, held on to its early gains and, along with gold and silver, was one of the few havens to make good in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，瑞士法郎保持了早期的漲幅，並與黃金和白銀一起成為 2025 年為數不多的成功避風港之一。</p>
</div><p>But if you went into the year viewing the dollar as a haven in times of geopolitical stress, you had to think again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你在年初將美元視為地緣政治壓力下的避風港，你就得重新考慮了。</p>
</div><p>The DXY dollar index fell 12% during some of the year’s most turbulent months, and stayed weak through multiple flashpoints in the Middle East, eastern Europe and even the Caribbean. Another strategy for investors wary of market disruptions would have been to buy options-related volatility indexes to profit from wild gyrations in stocks and bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年一些最動盪的月份，DXY 美元指數下跌了 12%，並在中東、東歐甚至加勒比海的多個危機點保持疲軟。對於那些對市場動盪感到擔憂的投資者，另一種策略是購買與波動性相關的指數，以從股票和債券的劇烈波動中獲利。</p>
</div><p>But these parachutes never really opened either in 2025. Despite big swings in the spring, the S&amp;P 500’s VIX (.VIX) “fear index” of one-month implied volatility is ending the year two points below where it started. The Treasury market equivalent, the MOVE index, is less than two-thirds its opening level and below half its April peak. The main currency market ‘vol’ gauges are lower as well. It simply didn’t really pay to be too cautious this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這些 “降落傘” 在 2025 年也並沒有真正發揮作用。儘管春季波動劇烈，標準普爾 500 指數的 VIX（.VIX）“恐慌指數” 在年末結束時比年初低了兩個點。國債市場的等效指標 MOVE 指數也不到其開盤水平的三分之二，且低於四月的峯值一半。主要貨幣市場的波動性指標也有所下降。今年並沒有真正值得過於謹慎的投資。</p>
</div><p>Doubles or quits for 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年是雙倍還是退出？</p>
</div><p>The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. – Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn. Plus, sign up for my weekday newsletter, Morning Bid U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏表達的觀點是作者的，作者為路透社專欄作家。——喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），這是您獲取全球金融評論的必備新來源。在 LinkedIn 上關注 ROI。此外，註冊我的工作日通訊《晨間投標美國》。</p>
</div><p>Precious indeed - gold, silver and platinum boom</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>確實珍貴——黃金、白銀和鉑金的繁榮</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pPxu3Y"/></p>
<p>Defense, rather than defensive investment, wins out</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國防勝於防禦性投資</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4j9Q4Bg"/></p>
<p>Big crypto tokens underwhelm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型加密貨幣代幣表現不佳</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4apMTTD"/></p>
<p>“Safe” government bonds fall flat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“安全” 的政府債券表現平平</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/45goZ9C"/></p>
<p>Defensive stock sectors underperform on Wall St</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>防禦性股票行業在華爾街表現不佳</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Y6qHXn"/></p>
<p>No ‘safety’ in either dollar or yen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元和日元都沒有 “安全性”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pKGO90"/></p>
<p>No joy in buying volatility in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年購買波動性沒有樂趣</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4p6rpz0"/></p>
<p>(by Mike Dolan; Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Mike Dolan；編輯：Marguerita Choy）</p>
</div>

Mike Dolan 表示，2025 年槍支和黃金在投資回報率上表現出色，但其他被視為 “安全” 的交易卻遭遇失敗