<p>儘管自十月初以來，加密貨幣市場一直在掙扎，但歷史表明，長期對該行業前景持悲觀態度通常不是一個好主意。加密礦工和能源基礎設施專家 <strong>Hut 8 Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: HUT) 似乎正在表達這一觀點，週二股價上漲超過 5%。儘管如此，即使有了大幅上漲，HUT 股票仍可能有額外的收益可供挖掘。</p>
<p>從基本面來看，看漲的投資者可以對數字資產市場潛在的反彈感到振奮。儘管我們沒有看到通常特徵的加密貨幣反彈的顯著上升，但技術分析師會認為多個基準資產已經找到了支撐位。考慮到最近幾個月價值的嚴重下跌，即使是穩定也是區塊鏈支持者樂於接受的好消息。</p>
<p>在期權訂單流方面，交易者預計 HUT 股票在接下來的幾周內會有大幅波動。我們怎麼知道這一點？多個資源報告稱，1 月 16 日的月度期權鏈的 “預期波動” 約為 18.8%，無論哪個方向。根據當前市場價格，這意味着價格區間在 $43.04 到 $62.96 之間。</p>
<p>如你所想，2 月份的到期日期甚至更糟，預期波動超過 20%。根據每個來源計算其預測的方式，範圍可能在 $35 到 $65 之間，甚至更寬。</p>
<p>這些數字並不是迷信，它們是基於使用 Black-Scholes 模型的隱含波動率（IV）構建的。簡單來説，IV 就像你站在某個地方時，經過的汽車發出的 “呼嘯” 聲。</p>
<p>根據風聲的強度和音響的持續時間，你可以推測出車輛的速度。但沒有額外的上下文，你無法確切知道司機的去向——尤其是在一個大城市中。</p>
<p>不過，通過一點偵探工作，我們將縮小這個極大的波動範圍，以幫助平衡風險。</p>
<h2>聚焦 HUT 股票可能的結果範圍</h2>
<p>在談論 IV 和其他與期權相關的波動性指標時，瞭解這些統計數據是最終源於實際訂單流的殘餘指標是很有用的。換句話説，當 IV 大幅上升時，表明交易者正在對潛在事件進行投機和對沖。</p>
<p>但讓我們坦誠相待。如果我告訴你 HUT 股票——再次強調，它是一家加密礦工——將大幅上漲或大幅下跌，你可能會以某種變體回應 “沒錯”。</p>
<p>我敢説，你們中的大多數人會使用更強烈的語言。然而，關鍵是你會期待分析提供更多的具體性。這就是為什麼我們需要進行層次思考。</p>
<p>假設你拿了一段 HUT 股票價格的單一 10 週數據。顯然，這段時間的回報不會告訴我們數據集中其他周的表現概率。但想象一下，你將數百個滾動的 10 周 HUT 股票試驗堆疊到一個（固定時間）分佈中。在這個框架下，最頻繁、一致的行為將產生概率質量的膨脹。</p>
<p>這種膨脹就是風險幾何，表明買方情緒的加速。更重要的是，它還顯示了買方被誘惑成為賣方的轉變。通過這些信息，我們可以統計上知道在哪裏可以施壓——以及在哪裏應該退縮。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>作者提供的圖片</p>
<p>使用層次框架，HUT 股票的 10 週迴報可以排列成一個分佈曲線，結果落在 $47 到 $52 之間（假設錨定價格為 $50.39，即週一的收盤價）。價格聚集可能發生在 $48.80，這表明存在負偏見。</p>
<p>儘管如此，上述評估匯總了自 2019 年 1 月以來的所有試驗。我們對當前的定量信號感興趣，即 5-5-D 序列；也就是説，在截至週一的過去 10 週中，上漲和下跌周的分佈是均勻的，但整體呈下降趨勢。換句話説，過去兩個月的交易淨呈看跌。</p>
<p>歷史上，長期的悲觀情緒往往會引發逆向情緒。在這種情況下，HUT 股票在接下來的 10 周內可能在 $40 到 $80 之間波動，價格聚集可能主要集中在 $53 附近。然而，風險幾何中有一些有趣的細微差別值得更仔細的檢查。</p>
<h2>針對 Hut 8 的特定交易</h2>
<p>與預期波動計算相關的另一個困難是，波動僅僅是波動。它並沒有告訴你哪些數字比其他數字更可能為真。換句話説，基於 Black-Scholes 的隱含波動率計算有效地將 HUT 股票下跌到 $35 的概率與股票上漲到 $65 的概率視為相同（由於公式將概率的概念壓縮）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的圖片</p>
<p>你不必成為市場天才就能理解這一説法的荒謬。因此，我們並不是僅僅為了繪製酷炫的形狀而計算風險幾何。不是的，繪製這些形狀的基礎計算告訴你哪些價格結果在相對基礎上更可能發生。</p>
<p>在這一點上，觀察每 $10 區間的概率衰減率，最具風險回報平衡的交易圍繞 $60 行使價展開。考慮到在 $50 和 $60 之間，概率密度下降了 33.21%。在 $60 和 $70 之間，密度下降了 67.78%。</p>
<p>換句話説，概率在超過 60 美元的價格點後呈指數級加速衰減。因此，通過將我們的回報上限設定為 60 美元，以折扣我們為投機到 60 美元所支付的溢價，我們實際上是在購買最有可能實現的未來結果。</p>
<p>話雖如此，我認為 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 55/60 牛市看漲期權價差是可行的。不僅 HUT 股票在到期時觸發 60 美元行權價的機會相當不錯，盈虧平衡價位也設定在一個雄心勃勃但可以説是現實的 56.75 美元。</p>
<p>如果投機成功，您將獲得近 186% 的回報。</p>
<p><strong><em>本內容中表達的意見和觀點僅代表個人作者的觀點，並不一定反映 Benzinga 的觀點。Benzinga 對本文中提供的任何信息的準確性或可靠性不承擔責任。本內容僅供信息參考，不應被誤解為投資建議或買賣任何證券的推薦。讀者被要求不要依賴本文中的意見或信息，並在做出投資決策之前進行自己的盡職調查。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>接下來閲讀：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期權角落：為什麼 New Gold 的期權市場在積極違背合併劇本</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>本文討論了在加密市場波動中交易 HUT 股票的策略。儘管近期面臨挑戰，Hut 8 Corp 的股票上漲超過 5%，並有進一步上漲的潛力。交易者預計將出現重大波動，期權顯示到 1 月份預期波動為 18.8%，到 2 月份超過 20%。使用分層框架，HUT 股票在接下來的 10 周內可能在 40 美元到 80 美元之間波動，價格集中在 53 美元附近。分析表明，逆向情緒可能推動未來的表現</p>

<p>While the cryptocurrency market has been struggling since early October, as history demonstrates, it's usually not a good idea to stay indefinitely pessimistic on the sector's prospects. Crypto miner and energy infrastructure specialist <strong>Hut 8 Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: HUT) appears to be articulating this viewpoint, with shares climbing over 5% on Tuesday. Still, even with the big bump, there could be additional gains to be extracted from HUT stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管自十月初以來，加密貨幣市場一直在掙扎，但歷史表明，長期對該行業前景持悲觀態度通常不是一個好主意。加密礦工和能源基礎設施專家 <strong>Hut 8 Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: HUT) 似乎正在表達這一觀點，週二股價上漲超過 5%。儘管如此，即使有了大幅上漲，HUT 股票仍可能有額外的收益可供挖掘。</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally, bullish investors can take heart with a potential rebound brewing in the digital asset market. Though we're not seeing the remarkable ascendancy that usually characterizes crypto rallies, technical analysts would argue that multiple benchmark assets have found a floor. Given the severe drop in value in recent months, even stabilization is a piece of good news that blockchain adherents will gladly take.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從基本面來看，看漲的投資者可以對數字資產市場潛在的反彈感到振奮。儘管我們沒有看到通常特徵的加密貨幣反彈的顯著上升，但技術分析師會認為多個基準資產已經找到了支撐位。考慮到最近幾個月價值的嚴重下跌，即使是穩定也是區塊鏈支持者樂於接受的好消息。</p>
</div><p>On the options order flow front, traders are expecting a massive move over the next several weeks for HUT stock. How do we know this? Multiple resources report that the &#34;expected move&#34; for the January 16 monthly options chain is about 18.8% in either direction. Based on the current market price, that would imply a dispersion between $43.04 and $62.96.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在期權訂單流方面，交易者預計 HUT 股票在接下來的幾周內會有大幅波動。我們怎麼知道這一點？多個資源報告稱，1 月 16 日的月度期權鏈的 “預期波動” 約為 18.8%，無論哪個方向。根據當前市場價格，這意味着價格區間在 $43.04 到 $62.96 之間。</p>
</div><p>As you might imagine, the February-month expiration date is even worse, with an expected move exceeding 20%. Depending on how each individual source calculates their projections, the range could be around $35 to $65 or wider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如你所想，2 月份的到期日期甚至更糟，預期波動超過 20%。根據每個來源計算其預測的方式，範圍可能在 $35 到 $65 之間，甚至更寬。</p>
</div><p>These numbers aren't voodoo as they're built from implied volatility (IV) using the Black-Scholes model. Without getting into too many mathematical complexities, IV is very much like the &#34;whoosh&#34; of a passing car relative to where you're standing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些數字並不是迷信，它們是基於使用 Black-Scholes 模型的隱含波動率（IV）構建的。簡單來説，IV 就像你站在某個地方時，經過的汽車發出的 “呼嘯” 聲。</p>
</div><p>Based on the crack of the wind and the length of the aural resonance, you can infer the velocity of the vehicle. But without additional context, you can't tell where exactly the driver is headed — especially in a major metropolitan area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據風聲的強度和音響的持續時間，你可以推測出車輛的速度。但沒有額外的上下文，你無法確切知道司機的去向——尤其是在一個大城市中。</p>
</div><p>Still, with a little detective work, we're going to narrow down this wide-as-heck dispersion to help even the odds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，通過一點偵探工作，我們將縮小這個極大的波動範圍，以幫助平衡風險。</p>
</div><h2>Focusing On The Likely Range Of Outcomes For HUT Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>聚焦 HUT 股票可能的結果範圍</h2>
</div><p>When talking about IV and other options-related volatility metrics, it's useful to know that these stats are residual metrics ultimately derived from actual order flows. In other words, when IV spikes higher, it indicates that traders are both speculating on and hedging against the underlying event occurring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在談論 IV 和其他與期權相關的波動性指標時，瞭解這些統計數據是最終源於實際訂單流的殘餘指標是很有用的。換句話説，當 IV 大幅上升時，表明交易者正在對潛在事件進行投機和對沖。</p>
</div><p>But let's be brutally honest with each other. If I told you that HUT stock — which again is a crypto miner — is going to go up massively or down massively, you would probably respond with some kind of variant of &#34;no kidding.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但讓我們坦誠相待。如果我告訴你 HUT 股票——再次強調，它是一家加密礦工——將大幅上漲或大幅下跌，你可能會以某種變體回應 “沒錯”。</p>
</div><p>I dare say that most of you would use much stronger language than that. Nevertheless, the point is that you would expect a little more specificity from an analysis. That's why we need to think hierarchically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我敢説，你們中的大多數人會使用更強烈的語言。然而，關鍵是你會期待分析提供更多的具體性。這就是為什麼我們需要進行層次思考。</p>
</div><p>Let us suppose that you took a single 10-week strand of HUT stock price data. Obviously, the return during that period won't tell us anything about the probability of performance for the other weeks in the dataset. But imagine that you stacked hundreds of rolling 10-week trials of HUT onto a (fixed-time) distribution. Under this framework, the most frequent, consistent behaviors will yield a bulge in probability mass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假設你拿了一段 HUT 股票價格的單一 10 週數據。顯然，這段時間的回報不會告訴我們數據集中其他周的表現概率。但想象一下，你將數百個滾動的 10 周 HUT 股票試驗堆疊到一個（固定時間）分佈中。在這個框架下，最頻繁、一致的行為將產生概率質量的膨脹。</p>
</div><p>This bulge is risk geometry, which indicates the acceleration of buyer sentiment. More importantly, it also shows the transition where buyers are tempted to become sellers. With this information, we know statistically where we can push — and where we should back off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種膨脹就是風險幾何，表明買方情緒的加速。更重要的是，它還顯示了買方被誘惑成為賣方的轉變。通過這些信息，我們可以統計上知道在哪裏可以施壓——以及在哪裏應該退縮。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153711/HUT-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的圖片</p>
</div><p>Using a hierarchical framework, the 10-week returns of HUT stock can be arranged as a distributional curve, with outcomes landing between $47 and $52 (assuming an anchor price of $50.39, Monday's close). Price clustering would likely occur at $48.80, which indicates a negative bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用層次框架，HUT 股票的 10 週迴報可以排列成一個分佈曲線，結果落在 $47 到 $52 之間（假設錨定價格為 $50.39，即週一的收盤價）。價格聚集可能發生在 $48.80，這表明存在負偏見。</p>
</div><p>Still, the above assessment aggregates all trials since January 2019. We're interested in the current quantitative signal, which is the 5-5-D sequence; that is, in the past 10 weeks ending Monday, the up and down week split was even but with an overall downward slope. In other words, the last two months featured net bearish trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，上述評估匯總了自 2019 年 1 月以來的所有試驗。我們對當前的定量信號感興趣，即 5-5-D 序列；也就是説，在截至週一的過去 10 週中，上漲和下跌周的分佈是均勻的，但整體呈下降趨勢。換句話説，過去兩個月的交易淨呈看跌。</p>
</div><p>Historically, extended pessimism tends to elicit contrarian sentiment. In this case, HUT stock over the next 10 weeks may range between $40 and $80, with price clustering likely to be predominant at around $53. Nevertheless, there are some interesting nuances in risk geometry that deserve closer inspection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，長期的悲觀情緒往往會引發逆向情緒。在這種情況下，HUT 股票在接下來的 10 周內可能在 $40 到 $80 之間波動，價格聚集可能主要集中在 $53 附近。然而，風險幾何中有一些有趣的細微差別值得更仔細的檢查。</p>
</div><h2>Targeting A Specific Trade For Hut 8</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>針對 Hut 8 的特定交易</h2>
</div><p>One of the other difficulties associated with the expected move calculations is that the dispersion is just that, a dispersion. It doesn't tell you which figures are more likely to be true than the others. In other words, a Black-Scholes-derived calculation of IV effectively weighs the probability of HUT stock dropping to $35 exactly the same as the stock hitting $65 (due to the formulation's collapsing of the concept of probability).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與預期波動計算相關的另一個困難是，波動僅僅是波動。它並沒有告訴你哪些數字比其他數字更可能為真。換句話説，基於 Black-Scholes 的隱含波動率計算有效地將 HUT 股票下跌到 $35 的概率與股票上漲到 $65 的概率視為相同（由於公式將概率的概念壓縮）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/23153642/HUT-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的圖片</p>
</div><p>You don't have to be a market genius to understand the absurdity of that claim. So, we don't calculate risk geometry just so we can draw cool shapes. No, the underlying calculus that draws these shapes tells you which price outcomes are more likely to occur on a relative basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不必成為市場天才就能理解這一説法的荒謬。因此，我們並不是僅僅為了繪製酷炫的形狀而計算風險幾何。不是的，繪製這些形狀的基礎計算告訴你哪些價格結果在相對基礎上更可能發生。</p>
</div><p>On that note, looking at the rate of probability decay over $10 intervals, the most risk-reward-balanced trade revolve around the $60 strike price. Consider that between $50 and $60, probability density declines by 33.21%. Between $60 and $70, density drops by 67.78%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這一點上，觀察每 $10 區間的概率衰減率，最具風險回報平衡的交易圍繞 $60 行使價展開。考慮到在 $50 和 $60 之間，概率密度下降了 33.21%。在 $60 和 $70 之間，密度下降了 67.78%。</p>
</div><p>Stated differently, probability decay exponentially accelerates beyond the $60 price point. Therefore, by capping our reward at $60 in a bid to discount the premium we'll pay to speculate up to $60, we would effectively be buying the forward outcome that is most likely to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，概率在超過 60 美元的價格點後呈指數級加速衰減。因此，通過將我們的回報上限設定為 60 美元，以折扣我們為投機到 60 美元所支付的溢價，我們實際上是在購買最有可能實現的未來結果。</p>
</div><p>With that said, I believe the 55/60 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026, is in play. Not only is there a decent chance for HUT stock to trigger the $60 strike at expiration, the breakeven price is at an ambitious but arguably realistic $56.75.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，我認為 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 55/60 牛市看漲期權價差是可行的。不僅 HUT 股票在到期時觸發 60 美元行權價的機會相當不錯，盈虧平衡價位也設定在一個雄心勃勃但可以説是現實的 56.75 美元。</p>
</div><p>If the speculation pans out, you're looking at a payout of nearly 186%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投機成功，您將獲得近 186% 的回報。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本內容中表達的意見和觀點僅代表個人作者的觀點，並不一定反映 Benzinga 的觀點。Benzinga 對本文中提供的任何信息的準確性或可靠性不承擔責任。本內容僅供信息參考，不應被誤解為投資建議或買賣任何證券的推薦。讀者被要求不要依賴本文中的意見或信息，並在做出投資決策之前進行自己的盡職調查。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下來閲讀：</strong></p>
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<li><strong>Options Corner: Why New Gold’s Options Market Is Bullishly Defying The Merger Playbook</strong></li>
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<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期權角落：為什麼 New Gold 的期權市場在積極違背合併劇本</strong></li>
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</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

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