<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></h3>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>菲利普 66（Phillips 66，PSX）是一家領先的下游能源公司，專注於煉油、中游、化學品和市場營銷業務。該公司的股價剛剛給技術交易者上了一堂關於趨勢線動態的教科書課程。在經歷了從六月到十二月初的美麗上升支撐線後，股票發生了一件立即引起經驗豐富的分析師注意的事情——它突破了支撐。</p>
<p>讓我們來分析一下這裏發生了什麼，因為這不僅僅是圖表上的噪音。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjUyMzc5ODU1MC0xNzY2NTIzNzk4NTUxLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="975" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjUyMzc5ODU1MC0xNzY2NTIzNzk4NTUxLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY"/></p>
<p>自年中以來，PSX 形成了一個穩定的上升趨勢，那條黃色支撐趨勢線就像是價格行動下方可靠的地板。在夏季和秋季的多個時刻，當賣壓出現時，買家總是在那條線附近介入。它的表現完美無缺——直到它沒有。在十二月底，PSX 像是突然失去意義一樣，切穿了那條支撐線，這對市場兩邊的交易者來説變得有趣。</p>
<p>該股票目前交易價格約為 129.99 美元，明顯低於曾經可靠的支撐。但這就是區分新手圖表觀察者和經驗豐富的技術分析師的地方：那條破裂的趨勢線並不會就此消失。它會轉變。曾經作為買家跳板的支撐線現在可能成為任何反彈嘗試的阻力。在技術分析中，我們稱這種現象為極性轉變。</p>
<p>這就是 “回撤/空頭水平” 註釋變得相關的地方。如果 PSX 試圖反彈回到 134-136 美元區間——正好在那條以前的趨勢線附近——我們很可能看到一個回撤進入新的阻力。對於看空的交易者來説，該區域代表了建立空頭頭寸的高概率區域，押注於突破將保持，價格繼續下行。邏輯很簡單：之前的支撐往往會變成新的阻力。</p>
<p>看漲的反駁論點則是，有時突破會失敗。如果 PSX 能夠重新奪回並堅定地收於 136 美元以上，這將表明趨勢線的違規是一個虛假的突破——我們稱之為空頭陷阱。那種情況可能會觸發空頭回補和重新的買入興趣，可能會將股價推回到接近 145 美元的近期高點。</p>
<p>那麼這裏的操作是什麼？對於看空者來説，耐心是關鍵。在啓動空頭之前，等待反彈至 134-136 美元，並在 137 美元以上設置止損以限制風險。如果你是看漲者，你需要概念的證明：在考慮做多之前，必須有明確的重新奪回破裂趨勢線的成交量確認。</p>
<p>什麼會使這一突破情景失效？快速而有力地回到 136 美元以上，並在多個交易日內保持。直到那時，技術偏向將傾向於看空，破裂的趨勢線現在充當上方阻力而非下方支撐。能源行業最近一直波動不定，PSX 的圖表完美反映了這種不確定性——無論你的方向偏向如何，這都是一個值得密切關注的設置。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>黃金在地緣政治和美聯儲前景下堅守在紀錄高位附近</p>
<p>英鎊/美元從十月高位回落，市場消化美國數據</p>
<p>歐元/瑞士法郎滑向一個月低點，地緣政治風險提升瑞士法郎</p>

菲利普66

<p>菲利普 66 (PSX) 已經突破其上升支撐線，顯示出潛在的趨勢反轉。該股票目前交易價格約為 129.99 美元，可能在 134-136 美元區間面臨阻力，此前該區間為支撐位。空頭將此視為做空機會，而多頭則在等待價格明確回升至 136 美元以上，以考慮建立多頭頭寸。除非 PSX 在多個交易日內突破 136 美元，否則技術偏向仍然看跌</p>

<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
</div><p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>Phillips 66 (PSX) is a leading downstream energy company specializing in refining, midstream, chemicals, and marketing operations. The company share price just handed technical traders a textbook lesson in trendline dynamics. After riding a beautifully constructed ascending support line from June through early December, the stock has done something that immediately catches an experienced analyst's attention—it broke down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普 66（Phillips 66，PSX）是一家領先的下游能源公司，專注於煉油、中游、化學品和市場營銷業務。該公司的股價剛剛給技術交易者上了一堂關於趨勢線動態的教科書課程。在經歷了從六月到十二月初的美麗上升支撐線後，股票發生了一件立即引起經驗豐富的分析師注意的事情——它突破了支撐。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack what's happening here, because this isn't just noise on a chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們來分析一下這裏發生了什麼，因為這不僅僅是圖表上的噪音。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image/query-cT05NSZ1cmw9aHR0cHM6Ly9lZGl0b3JpYWwuZnhzc3RhdGljLmNvbS9taXNjZWxhbmVvdXMvaW1hZ2UtMTc2NjUyMzc5ODU1MC0xNzY2NTIzNzk4NTUxLnBuZyZ3PTE1MzY" alt="" original-src="https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.fxsstatic.com%2Fmiscelaneous%2Fimage-1766523798550-1766523798551.png&amp;w=1536&amp;q=95"/></p>
<p>Since mid-year, PSX carved out a steady uptrend, with that yellow support trendline acting like a dependable floor beneath price action. Multiple times throughout the summer and fall, when selling pressure emerged, buyers stepped in right at that line. It worked flawlessly—until it didn't. In late December, PSX sliced through that support like it suddenly ceased to matter, and that's where things get interesting for traders on both sides of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年中以來，PSX 形成了一個穩定的上升趨勢，那條黃色支撐趨勢線就像是價格行動下方可靠的地板。在夏季和秋季的多個時刻，當賣壓出現時，買家總是在那條線附近介入。它的表現完美無缺——直到它沒有。在十二月底，PSX 像是突然失去意義一樣，切穿了那條支撐線，這對市場兩邊的交易者來説變得有趣。</p>
</div><p>The stock currently trades around $129.99, clearly below what was once reliable support. But here's what separates novice chart-watchers from seasoned technicians: that broken trendline doesn't just disappear. It transforms. What formerly acted as a springboard for buyers could now function as a ceiling for any rally attempts. In technical analysis, we call this phenomenon a polarity shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票目前交易價格約為 129.99 美元，明顯低於曾經可靠的支撐。但這就是區分新手圖表觀察者和經驗豐富的技術分析師的地方：那條破裂的趨勢線並不會就此消失。它會轉變。曾經作為買家跳板的支撐線現在可能成為任何反彈嘗試的阻力。在技術分析中，我們稱這種現象為極性轉變。</p>
</div><p>This is where the &#34;Retrace / Short Level&#34; annotation becomes relevant. If PSX attempts to rally back toward the $134-136 zone—right around that former trendline—we're likely watching a retracement into fresh resistance. For bearish traders, that area represents a high-probability zone to establish short positions, betting that the breakdown will hold and price continues lower. The logic is simple: previous support often becomes new resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是 “回撤/空頭水平” 註釋變得相關的地方。如果 PSX 試圖反彈回到 134-136 美元區間——正好在那條以前的趨勢線附近——我們很可能看到一個回撤進入新的阻力。對於看空的交易者來説，該區域代表了建立空頭頭寸的高概率區域，押注於突破將保持，價格繼續下行。邏輯很簡單：之前的支撐往往會變成新的阻力。</p>
</div><p>The bullish counter-argument is simply that sometimes breakdowns fail. If PSX can reclaim and close above $136 with conviction, it would suggest the trendline violation was a false breakdown—what we call a bear trap. That scenario would likely trigger short-covering and renewed buying interest, potentially sending the stock back toward recent highs near $145.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看漲的反駁論點則是，有時突破會失敗。如果 PSX 能夠重新奪回並堅定地收於 136 美元以上，這將表明趨勢線的違規是一個虛假的突破——我們稱之為空頭陷阱。那種情況可能會觸發空頭回補和重新的買入興趣，可能會將股價推回到接近 145 美元的近期高點。</p>
</div><p>So what's the play here? For bears, patience pays. Wait for that bounce toward $134-136 before initiating shorts, with stops above $137 to limit risk if you're wrong. For bulls, you need proof of concept: a decisive reclaim of the broken trendline with volume confirmation before considering long entries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼這裏的操作是什麼？對於看空者來説，耐心是關鍵。在啓動空頭之前，等待反彈至 134-136 美元，並在 137 美元以上設置止損以限制風險。如果你是看漲者，你需要概念的證明：在考慮做多之前，必須有明確的重新奪回破裂趨勢線的成交量確認。</p>
</div><p>What would invalidate this breakdown scenario? A quick, powerful move back above $136 that holds for multiple sessions. Until that happens, the technical bias tilts bearish, with the broken trendline now acting as overhead resistance rather than underlying support. The energy sector has been volatile lately, and PSX's chart reflects that uncertainty perfectly—making this a setup worth monitoring closely regardless of your directional bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>什麼會使這一突破情景失效？快速而有力地回到 136 美元以上，並在多個交易日內保持。直到那時，技術偏向將傾向於看空，破裂的趨勢線現在充當上方阻力而非下方支撐。能源行業最近一直波動不定，PSX 的圖表完美反映了這種不確定性——無論你的方向偏向如何，這都是一個值得密切關注的設置。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Gold Holds Firm Near Record Highs On Geopolitics And Fed Outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金在地緣政治和美聯儲前景下堅守在紀錄高位附近</p>
</div><p>GBP/USD Eases From October Highs As Markets Digest US Data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英鎊/美元從十月高位回落，市場消化美國數據</p>
</div><p>EUR/CHF Slides Toward One-Month Lows As Geopolitical Risks Lift Swiss Franc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐元/瑞士法郎滑向一個月低點，地緣政治風險提升瑞士法郎</p>
</div>

菲利普 66 突破關鍵上升趨勢：是回撤設置還是反轉信號？