<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>中國的牛奶過剩推動了對歐盟乳製品的關税決定</li>
<li>對歐盟乳製品的關税範圍為 21.9% 至 42.7%</li>
<li>中國轉向更高利潤的乳製品，如黃油和奶油</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Daphne Zhang 和 Casey Hall</p>
<p>中國的農民面臨牛奶過剩，而北京決定對來自歐盟的乳製品徵收關税，預計將為他們提供一定的保護，使他們能夠拓展到更高利潤的產品，如奶油和黃油。</p>
<p>&#34;該國的牛奶過剩在政府決定徵收關税中起了重要作用……過去四年，中國的乳製品行業一直在虧損，整個行業都在流血，&#34; StoneX 的 Dairy Asia 負責人李逸凡表示。</p>
<p>他補充説，隨着經濟疲軟對國家財政的影響，中國的政府補貼在 2025 年減少。</p>
<p>對來自歐盟的無糖牛奶、奶油以及新鮮和加工奶酪的進口關税於週二開始，範圍為 21.9% 至 42.7%，這是自該地區對中國電動車徵收關税以來一系列報復措施中的最新舉措。</p>
<p>中國最近在對白蘭地和豬肉進行反傾銷調查後，顯著降低了來自歐盟的豬肉臨時關税。</p>
<p>乳製品行業趨勢促使轉變</p>
<p>中國是全球第三大牛奶生產國，去年的牛奶產量從 2017 年的 3039 萬噸激增至超過 4000 萬噸。同時，由於出生率下降，消費量在 2024 年降至每人 12.6 公斤，低於 2021 年的 14.4 公斤。近年來，價格一直處於或低於每公斤約 3.02 元（0.4298 美元）的平均生產成本，導致許多虧損的農場關閉或出售奶牛用於肉類。</p>
<p>北京東方農業諮詢公司的乳製品分析師連亞兵表示，中國超過 90% 的乳製品農民沒有盈利。</p>
<p>&#34;關税決定無疑是像伊利和蒙牛這樣的頂級乳製品生產商的機會，他們今年正在加大黃油、奶油和奶酪的生產，&#34;連亞兵説。</p>
<p>李逸凡表示，中國的牛奶過剩和消費者對乳製品需求的變化，促使國內供應商在過去一年中生產更高利潤的產品，從而減少對進口的依賴。</p>
<p>&#34;幾年前，只有少數頂級乳製品生產商在生產奶油和黃油，現在至少有 40 家，&#34;他説。</p>
<p>奶油比黃油更易加工，受益於中國奶茶熱潮，像喜茶和茶顏悦色這樣的連鎖店在其現成飲品中使用該產品。</p>
<p>來自雲南南部的有機乳製品農民韓表示，他是一個小眾市場的生產者，生產少量歐洲風格的奶酪，如藍紋奶酪和布里奶酪。他説，傳統西方奶酪的需求最近超過了供應。</p>
<p>&#34;對於中國少數優質奶酪生產商來説，影響微乎其微，因為生產量太小，&#34;他説。&#34;但這可以表明政府正在制定這一關税政策以保護國內乳製品行業。&#34;</p>
<p>有針對性的關税制度</p>
<p>分析師表示，北京利用關税來表達對貿易伙伴及其公司的不滿。荷蘭乳製品巨頭 FrieslandCampina 面臨最高 42.7% 的關税，而包括丹麥的 Arla Foods 在內的約 60 家公司將支付不到 30% 的關税。荷蘭和丹麥都支持對中國電動車提高關税，法國、愛爾蘭和意大利等主要乳製品生產國也投票支持。</p>
<p>荷蘭在 9 月份因治理問題扣押了芯片製造商 Nexperia，激怒了中國，這引發了汽車行業的全球芯片短缺。</p>
<p>這一爭端尚未解決，中國母公司與荷蘭子公司正在爭奪對 Nexperia 的控制權。</p>
<p>上週對歐盟豬肉進口的關税降低是西班牙的勝利，西班牙採取了親北京的立場以吸引新的投資，過去一年中，首相佩德羅·桑切斯和國王費利佩六世進行了國事訪問。</p>
<p>（1 美元 = 7.0258 人民幣）</p>

伊利股份

<p>中國對歐盟乳製品進口徵收 21.9% 至 42.7% 的關税，以保護國內產業，因應牛奶過剩和消費者需求變化。這一舉措是在歐盟對中國電動車徵收關税之後採取的，反映了中國通過關税表達對貿易伙伴不滿的戰略。此決定有利於中國頂級乳製品生產商如伊利和蒙牛，他們正轉向更高利潤的產品，如黃油和奶油</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>China's milk surplus drives tariff decision on EU dairy products</li>
<li>Tariffs range from 21.9% to 42.7% on EU dairy imports</li>
<li>China shifts to higher-margin dairy products like butter, cream</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中國的牛奶過剩推動了對歐盟乳製品的關税決定</li>
<li>對歐盟乳製品的關税範圍為 21.9% 至 42.7%</li>
<li>中國轉向更高利潤的乳製品，如黃油和奶油</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Daphne Zhang and Casey Hall</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Daphne Zhang 和 Casey Hall</p>
</div><p>China's farmers are up to their ears in milk and Beijing's decision to apply tariffs on dairy imports from the European Union is expected to give them a measure of protection as they branch out into higher-margin products like cream and butter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國的農民面臨牛奶過剩，而北京決定對來自歐盟的乳製品徵收關税，預計將為他們提供一定的保護，使他們能夠拓展到更高利潤的產品，如奶油和黃油。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The country's milk oversupply plays a significant role in the government's decision to impose tariffs ... the whole Chinese dairy industry has been losing profits in the last four years, the industry has been bleeding,&#34; said Yifan Li, head of Dairy Asia at StoneX, a commodity-focused financial services firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;該國的牛奶過剩在政府決定徵收關税中起了重要作用……過去四年，中國的乳製品行業一直在虧損，整個行業都在流血，&#34; StoneX 的 Dairy Asia 負責人李逸凡表示。</p>
</div><p>He added that government subsidies in China decreased in 2025 as a sluggish economy weighed on state finances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，隨着經濟疲軟對國家財政的影響，中國的政府補貼在 2025 年減少。</p>
</div><p>The higher duties on imports of unsweetened milk and cream and fresh and processed cheeses from the EU, which kicked off on Tuesday and range from 21.9% to 42.7% , were the latest move in a series of tit-for-tat measures since the bloc applied tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對來自歐盟的無糖牛奶、奶油以及新鮮和加工奶酪的進口關税於週二開始，範圍為 21.9% 至 42.7%，這是自該地區對中國電動車徵收關税以來一系列報復措施中的最新舉措。</p>
</div><p>China has recently significantly lowered provisional tariffs on pork from the EU following anti-dumping investigations on brandy and pork.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國最近在對白蘭地和豬肉進行反傾銷調查後，顯著降低了來自歐盟的豬肉臨時關税。</p>
</div><p>MILK INDUSTRY TRENDS PROMPT SHIFT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乳製品行業趨勢促使轉變</p>
</div><p>Milk output in China, the world's third-largest producer, surged to more than 40 million tons last year from 30.39 million tons in 2017. At the same time, consumption fell to 12.6 kg per person in 2024 from 14.4 kg in 2021, hurt by the nation's falling birthrate. Prices in recent years have sat at or below average production costs of around 3.02 yuan ($0.4298) per kg, causing many loss-making farms to shut down or sell cows for beef.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國是全球第三大牛奶生產國，去年的牛奶產量從 2017 年的 3039 萬噸激增至超過 4000 萬噸。同時，由於出生率下降，消費量在 2024 年降至每人 12.6 公斤，低於 2021 年的 14.4 公斤。近年來，價格一直處於或低於每公斤約 3.02 元（0.4298 美元）的平均生產成本，導致許多虧損的農場關閉或出售奶牛用於肉類。</p>
</div><p>Lian Yabing, a dairy analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants, said over 90% of China's dairy farmers were not making a profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京東方農業諮詢公司的乳製品分析師連亞兵表示，中國超過 90% 的乳製品農民沒有盈利。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The tariff decision is definitely an opportunity for top dairy producers like Yili and Mengniu, which are stepping up butter, cream and cheese production this year,&#34; Lian said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;關税決定無疑是像伊利和蒙牛這樣的頂級乳製品生產商的機會，他們今年正在加大黃油、奶油和奶酪的生產，&#34;連亞兵説。</p>
</div><p>China's milk glut and changing consumer dairy demands have pushed the country's suppliers to make higher-margin products over the past year, Li said, making it less reliant on imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李逸凡表示，中國的牛奶過剩和消費者對乳製品需求的變化，促使國內供應商在過去一年中生產更高利潤的產品，從而減少對進口的依賴。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A few years ago, only a handful of top dairy producers were making cream and butter, now there are at least 40,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;幾年前，只有少數頂級乳製品生產商在生產奶油和黃油，現在至少有 40 家，&#34;他説。</p>
</div><p>Cream, which is easier to process than butter, has received a boost from the milk tea boom in China, with chains like Heytea and Chagee  using the product in their ready-made drinks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奶油比黃油更易加工，受益於中國奶茶熱潮，像喜茶和茶顏悦色這樣的連鎖店在其現成飲品中使用該產品。</p>
</div><p>Han, an organic dairy farmer in southern Yunnan province, said he was part of a niche market of producers making small amounts of European-style (changed French to European, he also makes swiss cheeses) cheeses like blue cheese and brie. He said demand has lately outstripped supply for traditional Western cheeses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自雲南南部的有機乳製品農民韓表示，他是一個小眾市場的生產者，生產少量歐洲風格的奶酪，如藍紋奶酪和布里奶酪。他説，傳統西方奶酪的需求最近超過了供應。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For the few premium cheese producers in China, the impact is minimal because the production volume is too small,&#34; he said. &#34;But this can be a signal that the government is formulating this tariff policy to protect its own domestic dairy industry.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;對於中國少數優質奶酪生產商來説，影響微乎其微，因為生產量太小，&#34;他説。&#34;但這可以表明政府正在制定這一關税政策以保護國內乳製品行業。&#34;</p>
</div><p>A TARGETED TARIFF REGIME</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有針對性的關税制度</p>
</div><p>Analysts say Beijing uses tariffs to register its displeasure with trading partners and their companies. Dutch dairy conglomerate FrieslandCampina faces the highest rate of 42.7%，while around 60 companies including Denmark's Arla Foods (ARLAF.UL) will pay just under 30%. The Netherlands and Denmark both voted in favour of increased tariffs on Chinese EVs along with major dairy producers France, Ireland and Italy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師表示，北京利用關税來表達對貿易伙伴及其公司的不滿。荷蘭乳製品巨頭 FrieslandCampina 面臨最高 42.7% 的關税，而包括丹麥的 Arla Foods 在內的約 60 家公司將支付不到 30% 的關税。荷蘭和丹麥都支持對中國電動車提高關税，法國、愛爾蘭和意大利等主要乳製品生產國也投票支持。</p>
</div><p>The Netherlands also angered China in September after it seized chipmaker Nexperia from its Chinese parent company, Wingtech, citing governance issues, which triggered temporary global chip shortages in the automotive sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>荷蘭在 9 月份因治理問題扣押了芯片製造商 Nexperia，激怒了中國，這引發了汽車行業的全球芯片短缺。</p>
</div><p>The dispute has not been resolved, with the Chinese parent and a Dutch unit engaged in a struggle for control over Nexperia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一爭端尚未解決，中國母公司與荷蘭子公司正在爭奪對 Nexperia 的控制權。</p>
</div><p>Last week's reduced tariffs on EU pork imports were a win for Spain, which has adopted a pro-Beijing stance to court fresh investment, with state visits from Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and King Felipe VI in the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週對歐盟豬肉進口的關税降低是西班牙的勝利，西班牙採取了親北京的立場以吸引新的投資，過去一年中，首相佩德羅·桑切斯和國王費利佩六世進行了國事訪問。</p>
</div><p>($1 = 7.0258 Chinese yuan renminbi)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（1 美元 = 7.0258 人民幣）</p>
</div>

中國對歐盟乳製品徵收關税旨在幫助陷入困境的國內產業，同時向國際傳遞信號