<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>股票和貨幣各上漲 0.3%</li>
<li>股票基準有望創下自 2009 年以來最佳年度</li>
<li>分析師稱委內瑞拉的希望被誇大</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
<p>拉丁美洲股票在週三上漲，阿根廷在交易量稀少的情況下領漲，使該地區有望實現自 2009 年以來的最佳年度。</p>
<p>MSCI 股票指數（.MILA00000PUS）上漲 0.3%，而阿根廷的 Merval 指數上漲 0.6%。</p>
<p>巴西的股市關閉，而阿根廷、秘魯和智利的交易所計劃提前收盤。區域市場將在 12 月 25 日因聖誕假期關閉。</p>
<p>墨西哥股市下跌 0.5%，此前國家統計局表示 11 月季調後的失業率為 2.7%。</p>
<p>由於缺乏其他催化劑，投資者重新審視現有數據，並從美聯儲的動向中獲取線索，預計明年將降低利率。</p>
<p>此類降息通常會削弱美元的吸引力，並提升對新興市場高收益替代品的需求。</p>
<p>MSCI 的貨幣指數（.MILA00000CUS）上漲 0.3%，哥倫比亞比索對美元上漲 0.8%。</p>
<p>新興市場在 2025 年閃耀</p>
<p>拉丁美洲今年已成為更廣泛的新興市場中的亮點，投資者希望增加對該地區的投資。</p>
<p>加強公共財政的努力有助於增強信心，尤其是在貿易政策不確定性削弱發達市場吸引力的時刻。</p>
<p>截至週二收盤，MSCI 拉丁美洲股票指數今年已上漲 46%，有望創下自 2009 年以來的最佳年度。</p>
<p>然而，國內政治可能會帶來障礙，尤其是該地區多個國家即將舉行選舉。</p>
<p>最近幾周，投資者不得不應對美國與委內瑞拉之間日益緊張的局勢。</p>
<p>一些人試圖在動盪中尋找機會。對美國對委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅施加壓力可能為政治變革和委內瑞拉債務重組鋪平道路的押注，導致該國債券的反彈，2025 年在指數層面回報約為 100%。</p>
<p>然而，分析師警告稱，這種樂觀可能為時已晚。</p>
<p>“我們認為，任何對迅速、乾淨、對投資者友好的政權更替的希望都是被誇大的。馬杜羅的下台並不保證向一個更民主和對投資者友好的政府的平穩有序過渡，” Tellimer Research 的首席經濟學家兼全球固定收益研究負責人 Stuart Culverhouse 表示。</p>
<p>主要拉丁美洲股票指數和貨幣：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新興市場 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1392.86</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉丁美洲 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2714.09</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>65254.84</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10386.61</td>
<td>-0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 Merval</td>
<td>3132565.47</td>
<td>0.565</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞 COLCAP</td>
<td>2068.67</td>
<td>-0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>貨幣</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>17.9063</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>904.67</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞比索</td>
<td>3720.7</td>
<td>0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘魯索爾</td>
<td>3.3642</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

明晟

<p>拉丁美洲股市上漲，以阿根廷為首，MSCI 指數上漲 0.3%，阿根廷的 Merval 指數上漲 0.6%。該地區有望迎來自 2009 年以來的最佳年度。儘管一些市場提前收盤，投資者仍對美國可能降息持樂觀態度。然而，委內瑞拉的政治局勢仍然令人擔憂。MSCI 拉丁美洲指數今年上漲了 46%，但國內政治可能會影響未來的表現</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Stocks and currencies up 0.3% each</li>
<li>Equity benchmark set for best year since 2009</li>
<li>Venezuela hopes overdone, analyst says</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票和貨幣各上漲 0.3%</li>
<li>股票基準有望創下自 2009 年以來最佳年度</li>
<li>分析師稱委內瑞拉的希望被誇大</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Niket Nishant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
</div><p>Latin American stocks climbed on Wednesday, with Argentina leading gains during a thinly traded session and keeping the region on course for its best year since 2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲股票在週三上漲，阿根廷在交易量稀少的情況下領漲，使該地區有望實現自 2009 年以來的最佳年度。</p>
</div><p>The MSCI index of equities (.MILA00000PUS) rose 0.3%, while Argentina's Merval index  gained 0.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 股票指數（.MILA00000PUS）上漲 0.3%，而阿根廷的 Merval 指數上漲 0.6%。</p>
</div><p>Brazil's equity market was shut, while bourses in Argentina, Peru and Chile were scheduled to close early. Regional markets will be closed on December 25 for the Christmas holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西的股市關閉，而阿根廷、秘魯和智利的交易所計劃提前收盤。區域市場將在 12 月 25 日因聖誕假期關閉。</p>
</div><p>Mexican equities  were down 0.5%, after the national statistics agency said that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 2.7% in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥股市下跌 0.5%，此前國家統計局表示 11 月季調後的失業率為 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>With few other catalysts, investors revisited existing data and took their cue from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於缺乏其他催化劑，投資者重新審視現有數據，並從美聯儲的動向中獲取線索，預計明年將降低利率。</p>
</div><p>Such rate reductions typically weaken the appeal of the U.S. dollar and boost demand for higher-yielding alternatives in emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此類降息通常會削弱美元的吸引力，並提升對新興市場高收益替代品的需求。</p>
</div><p>MSCI's currency gauge (.MILA00000CUS) was up 0.3%, with the Colombian peso  up 0.8% against the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 的貨幣指數（.MILA00000CUS）上漲 0.3%，哥倫比亞比索對美元上漲 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>EMERGING MARKETS SHINE IN 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新興市場在 2025 年閃耀</p>
</div><p>Latin America has emerged as a bright spot in the broader emerging market universe this year, with investors looking to add exposure to the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲今年已成為更廣泛的新興市場中的亮點，投資者希望增加對該地區的投資。</p>
</div><p>Efforts to shore up public finances have helped bolster confidence, particularly at a time when trade policy uncertainty has eroded the appeal of developed markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加強公共財政的努力有助於增強信心，尤其是在貿易政策不確定性削弱發達市場吸引力的時刻。</p>
</div><p>The MSCI index of Latin American stocks has gained 46% so far this year, as of Tuesday's close, which puts it on pace for its best year since 2009.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至週二收盤，MSCI 拉丁美洲股票指數今年已上漲 46%，有望創下自 2009 年以來的最佳年度。</p>
</div><p>However, domestic politics could throw a spanner in the works, especially as several countries in the region head toward elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，國內政治可能會帶來障礙，尤其是該地區多個國家即將舉行選舉。</p>
</div><p>In recent weeks, investors have had to contend with increasing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近幾周，投資者不得不應對美國與委內瑞拉之間日益緊張的局勢。</p>
</div><p>Some have tried to find opportunity amid the turmoil. Bets that increasing U.S. pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro could pave the way for political change and a restructuring of Venezuela's debt have led to a rally in the country's bonds, which have returned roughly 100% at the index level in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人試圖在動盪中尋找機會。對美國對委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅施加壓力可能為政治變革和委內瑞拉債務重組鋪平道路的押注，導致該國債券的反彈，2025 年在指數層面回報約為 100%。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts cautioned that the optimism may be premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析師警告稱，這種樂觀可能為時已晚。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We think any hopes of a swift and clean, investor-friendly regime change are overdone. The ousting of Maduro doesn’t guarantee a smooth and orderly transition to a more democratic and investor-friendly government,&#34; said Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist and global head of fixed income research at Tellimer Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們認為，任何對迅速、乾淨、對投資者友好的政權更替的希望都是被誇大的。馬杜羅的下台並不保證向一個更民主和對投資者友好的政府的平穩有序過渡，” Tellimer Research 的首席經濟學家兼全球固定收益研究負責人 Stuart Culverhouse 表示。</p>
</div><p>Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要拉丁美洲股票指數和貨幣：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Equities</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI Emerging Markets CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1392.86</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI LatAm (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2714.09</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico IPC</td>
<td>65254.84</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile IPSA</td>
<td>10386.61</td>
<td>-0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina Merval</td>
<td>3132565.47</td>
<td>0.565</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia COLCAP</td>
<td>2068.67</td>
<td>-0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Currencies</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico peso</td>
<td>17.9063</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile peso</td>
<td>904.67</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia peso</td>
<td>3720.7</td>
<td>0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Peru sol</td>
<td>3.3642</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新興市場 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1392.86</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉丁美洲 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2714.09</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>65254.84</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10386.61</td>
<td>-0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 Merval</td>
<td>3132565.47</td>
<td>0.565</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞 COLCAP</td>
<td>2068.67</td>
<td>-0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>貨幣</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>17.9063</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>904.67</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞比索</td>
<td>3720.7</td>
<td>0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘魯索爾</td>
<td>3.3642</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

拉美股市在平穩的交易中小幅上漲，阿根廷領漲